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on Development |
| By: | Murathanoglu, Emir (Department of Economics, Oberlin College) |
| Abstract: | I study how typhoons affect international labor migration from Philippine municipalities using administrative data on the universe of new migrant contracts. Typhoons increase out-migration for up to three years, but simultaneously shift migrants toward lower-paying occupations and destinations. Average migrant cohort wages fall by 0.27– 0.41% for each 1% typhoon-induced increase in migration. This fall is not explained by observable selection, as typhoon-induced migrants have higher educational attainment. These patterns are consistent with a simple migration search model, where worsening origin conditions incentivize potential migrants to search and leave for lower-paying overseas contracts. Despite this downgrading, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest 16–19% of the increase in remittances following typhoons can be attributed to new labor migration. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Labor migration, Natural disasters, Philippines |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J61 Q54 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxv:wpaper:2607 |
| By: | Gachet, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Stunting remains a major development challenge in many countries, including Ecuador. In this paper, I examine whether agrarian reform policies implemented during the 1960s and 1970s help explain long-run patterns of child stunting. The Ecuadorian reform relied on two distinct land allocation strategies: Public land transfers (PLT), designed to promote frontier settlement, and expropriation, aimed at redistributing land from large estates. Combining household survey data with historical maps and administrative records, I estimate the longrun relationship between these policies and child stunting by exploiting historical variation in land allocation across parishes. I find that areas exposed to PLT exhibit significantly lower rates of child stunting, while expropriation shows no robust association. Across specifications, PLT exposure is associated with stunting rates that are 3-17 percent lower relative to the mean. Cohort evidence further indicates that the relationship is stronger for mothers plausibly exposed to PLT during early childhood. Consistent with this pattern, mothers from more exposed PLT cohorts attained higher levels of education, suggesting that maternal human capital may be one channel linking frontier settlement policies to lower child stunting. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:343612 |
| By: | Robitaille, Marie-Claire (Saint Mary's University); Milla, Joniada (Saint Mary’s University) |
| Abstract: | While the Sierra Leone government is under pressure from the international community to ban the practice of female genital cutting, very few among the politicians and civil society are willing to abolish a practice that is seen as a prerequisite to mark the entry into adulthood. Cultural practices, however, are not immutable. In this article, we postulate that the peacekeepers’ presence in Sierra Leone during the 2000-2005 UNASMIL mission caused a shift in the female genital cutting practice. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy and data from three waves of the Demographic and Health Surveys, carried out in 2008, 2013, and 2019, we show that women who were 19 years or younger at the start of the mission and who live within a 10-kilometre radius of a peacekeeper base have a 2.2 percentage point lower probability of being cut. The result holds for a variety of robustness checks. We provide evidence that peacekeepers’ demand for transactional sex is likely driving the results. |
| Keywords: | female genital cutting, norms diffusion, peacekeepers, Sierra Leone war, transactional sex |
| JEL: | J16 N37 N47 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18875 |
| By: | Ruifeng Zhang; Yue Zhou |
| Abstract: | Emigration continues to shape the demographic and economic landscapes of Pacific Island Countries (PICs), though patterns and impacts vary widely across the region. This paper examines emigration trends in PICs and their implications on human capital and growth. We find that traditional emigration, which is largely characterized by a permanent relocation of young, highly skilled individuals—primarily to Australia and New Zealand—results in a brain drain in home countries. Moreover, many of these emigrants work in low-skilled jobs abroad, indicating significant skill mismatches and limited skill acquisition. More recent emigration has been driven by the expansion of labor mobility arrangements (LMAs) in Australia and New Zealand, involving low-skilled young workers who typically return home. These LMAs offer opportunities to mitigate brain drain, reduce youth unemployment, and support near-term economic growth through remittances. At the same time, children of LMA workers are more likely to drop out of school, thus undermining human capital accumulation and limiting long-term output gains. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that temporary labor mobility can be a helpful development instrument, while complementary policies are needed to safeguard children’s education, promote the productive use of remittances, and strengthen skills development and job creation at home. |
| Keywords: | International migration; labor mobility arrangements; remittances; human capital accumulation; economic growth; Pacific Island Countries |
| Date: | 2026–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/191 |
| By: | Michael Weintraub (Universidad de los Andes); Santiago Tobón (Centro de Investigaciones Económicas y Financieras (CIEF) Escuela de Economía y Finanzas Universidad EAFIT) |
| Abstract: | Peace negotiations reshape the electoral stakes of armed groups and their communities. Using polling-table returns and armed-presence maps, we study Colombia’s 2026 presidential election. Municipalities associated with factions negotiating under paz total, whose warrant and extraction protections depended on the continuity of the incumbent left, shifted five to six percentage points toward it. These municipalities showed no comparable shift in 2018–2022 or the 2026 congressional election. The left nonetheless lost by a 0.98-percent margin. The effects concentrate in Nariño, the factions’ stronghold, and municipalities where monitoring organizations reported compulsory-voting practices. Our design cannot disentangle pressure from support. |
| Keywords: | Peace Negotiations; Armed Conflict; Elections; Organized Crime; Illegal Economies; Colombia |
| JEL: | D72 D74 K42 O17 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:023627 |
| By: | Sebastián Bustos (Growth Lab, Harvard University); Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar (Escuela de Negocios, Universidad Anáhuac); Miguel Ángel Santos (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Adán Silverio-Murillo (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey) |
| Abstract: | El estudio examina el efecto del estado de excepción de 2022 en El Salvador sobre la asistencia escolar. Con encuestas de hogares de 2017-2024 y un diseño de diferencias en diferencias, compara adolescentes varones con niños de menor edad. Estima un aumento de cuatro puntos porcentuales en la asistencia de los adolescentes, con mayores ganancias en hogares pobres. Los resultados sugieren que desmantelar el control de las pandillas redujo barreras para la inversión educativa. |
| Keywords: | El Salvador, gobernanza criminal, pandillas, encarcelamiento, asistencia escolar. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:42 |
| By: | Daniela Mejía-Tejada (Universidad EAFIT); Juan Carlos Muñoz-Mora (Centro de Investigaciones Económicas y Financieras (CIEF), Escuela de Economía y Finanzas, Universidad EAFIT); Karen Gonzáles (Universidad EAFIT); Stefany López (Universidad EAFIT); Nicolás Valbuena (Universidad de los Andes); Daniel Rodríguez (Independiente) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effectiveness of Colombia’s Dry Paddy Rice Storage Incentive Program (1997–2023), a policy instrument designed to stabilize rice prices and guarantee supply amid high seasonality and perishability. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) combined with regression kink discontinuity (RKD) elements and exploiting detailed daily and monthly price data, we analyze the program’s effects on paddy rice prices, farmers’ net margins, production decisions, and consumer prices. Results show that when mills actively participate, the program mitigates the seasonal decline in paddy prices, reversing pre-incentive downward trends and contributing to faster stabilization. In irrigated systems, the policy smooths producers’ incomes by reversing negative profit trajectories, while in non-irrigated systems effects are weaker and inconsistent. The program also induces extensive production responses, as higher incentives correlate with larger harvested areas, and alter the transmission between paddy and white rice prices. Despite these short-term benefits, the policy exhibits structural inefficiencies: limited coverage, fiscal dependence, and distortions leading to oversupply and reduced competitiveness. Findings suggest that while stock stabilization can buffer shocks, Colombia’s rice sector requires a transition toward differentiated, inclusive, and efficiency-enhancing instruments to ensure long-term sustainability, particularly in view of tariff elimination under international trade agreements. Overall, the findings recommend an orderly transition towards less distorting instruments differentiated by productive system. |
| Keywords: | Stock-stabilization; public policy; Counterfactual; discontinuous regression; rice production; effectiveness analysis |
| JEL: | Q18 Q12 C21 H25 O13 Q13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:023623 |
| By: | Nchor, Dennis |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the contribution of information and communication technology (ICT) to sustainable development and job polarization in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Panel pooled mean group models are used to assess the role of ICT in sustainable development whereas changes in employment shares of the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO08) occupations are used to investigate the changing employment distribution in the labor markets in the region. The results show that all measures of ICT had a positive and significant impact on sustainable development. The paper also finds that the West African countries are lagging in terms of ICT adoption and ICT infrastructure. The pace of adoption is slower compared to developed countries thus minimizing the pace of job polarization. The results obtained found no u-shaped employment distribution in the countries to indicate job polarization. Significantly however, there is a decline in the share of employment of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors. The decline in the share of employment is however offset by rising employment shares of most middle-skilled occupations in the region. |
| Date: | 2026–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jzeyb_v1 |
| By: | Ofori, Isaac K. |
| Abstract: | Despite growing international commitments to green finance, it remains an open empirical question whether such transfers translate into inclusive green growth (IGG) in developing countries. This study addresses this gap by examining how countries' levels of development and executive corruption condition the effects of green finance on IGG. To this end, we draw on a comprehensive sample of 99 developing countries spanning 2000-2024 and employ instrumental-variable and quantile regression techniques for the analysis. Three clear findings emerge. First, we find robust evidence that green finance promotes IGG, but only in low-income countries. Second, we show that executive corruption significantly reduces the IGG-enhancing effects of green finance in low-income countries, whereas no comparable effect is observed in higher-income developing countries. Third, the evidence reveals notable heterogeneity in the conditional distribution of IGG, with countries at the lower end of IGG performance experiencing relatively larger gains from green finance. Overall, the findings indicate that the effectiveness of green finance in promoting inclusive green growth depends critically on countries' levels of development and the prevalence of executive corruption |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Developing countries, Green finance, Inclusive green growth |
| JEL: | D73 F35 O11 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:343605 |
| By: | Mahreen Khan; Iman Sen |
| Abstract: | Soft skills are widely believed to matter for labor market success, but two questions remain central to their use in active labor-market policy: are they malleable beyond childhood, and can training in these skills improve employment outcomes? To address these, we evaluate CareerX, a one-month soft-skills and career-readiness program for university students in Bangladesh. Across 15 cohorts, 1, 794 applicants were randomly assigned to an offer of training or a control group. One to two months after, training improves employment and paid employment by 7.3% and 6.7% in the treatment group. One year later, the estimated effect is similar in magnitude but less precisely estimated. An index of self-reported soft skills is 0.10 SD higher shortly after the program and remains higher, by 0.13 SD, one year later with larger gains in intrapersonal than interpersonal skills. Other measures such as CV quality, professional references and job-search planning and effort do not change detectably, a pattern consistent with improvements in soft skills contributing to the observed employment effects. The program is delivered at low marginal cost through group sessions and hybrid instruction at approximately USD 117 per additional attendee employed. Our results indicate that soft skills remain malleable at the point of labor market entry and that short programs can shift early employment outcomes at a cost well below comparable interventions. |
| Keywords: | youth employment, labor market entry, soft skills, RCT |
| JEL: | J24 M53 O15 I26 J08 C93 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2026-05 |
| By: | Jacklyn Makaaru Arinaitwe; George Bogere; Anna Fiore; Sylvan Herskowitz; Megan Lang; Francis Mwesigye; Tracy Nalumansi |
| Abstract: | Childcare burdens limit productivity among women in the informal sector, but we know little about the optimal design of childcare support. We randomize 883 women market vendors in Kampala, Uganda to receive free workplace- or community-based childcare. Free childcare redistributes caregiving away from household members, raises women’s hourly earnings, and improves child development and women’s well-being. Community centers achieve higher utilization and larger gains in development and well-being, while workplace centers generate larger economic impacts. Both models have a high marginal value of public funds. Community centers currently dominate, but workplace-based centers could prove superior if operated at scale. |
| Keywords: | labor, childcare, gender, time use, early child development |
| JEL: | O12 O18 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12969 |