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on Development |
| By: | de la Fuente Stevens, Diego (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | Mexico's 1993 reform extended compulsory schooling from six to nine years, creating a birth-cohort discontinuity in educational exposure. Using a regression discontinuity and instrumental variable design in the 2020 Mexican Census, this paper traces the reform's effects from educational attainment through fertility, child mortality, employment, and migration, into the schooling of the next generation. The reform raised attainment across all groups, but its effects were concentrated among Indigenous communities and rural populations, where baseline attainment was lowest: Indigenous literacy rose by 4.5 percentage points and lower-secondary completion by 3.8, from baselines of 78 and 29 per cent. These gains translated into lower fertility, reduced child mortality, higher employment, and a reallocation of workers out of low-productivity agriculture into higher-productivity sectors. Linking parents to children through census household identifiers, an additional year of parental schooling raised children's secondary enrolment by 3 to 4 percentage points and upper-secondary enrolment by 5 to 8. A single compulsory schooling reform thus generated a sustained, multi-domain shift in life trajectories extending across generations. |
| Keywords: | compulsory schooling, education reform, intergenerational mobility, fertility, labour markets outcomes, migration |
| JEL: | I26 I28 I24 J13 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18864 |
| By: | Yuvika Chaudhury; Aritri Chakravarty (Assistant Professor, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India.) |
| Abstract: | Access to formal credit plays a crucial role in enhancing agricultural productivity and mitigating risks in rural India. Despite sustained policy interventions, a significant share of agricultural households continues to rely on informal credit sources, often under unfavorable terms. This study investigates the determinants of formal credit access in Indian agriculture using unit-level data from the 77th Round of the National Sample Survey (NSS) on the Situation Assessment of Agricultural Households, covering the 2018–19 agricultural year and comprising around 58, 000 rural households. The analysis addresses three core dimensions: (i) household-level determinants of the percentage share of formal loans, (ii) factors influencing the likelihood of obtaining a loan for agricultural purposes, and (iii) the elasticity of credit demand with respect to interest rates. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), logistic regression, and log-log models are employed to analyze the demand side factors influencing the above dimensions. OLS results indicate that institutional linkages such as access to Kisan Credit Cards (KCC), crop insurance, and membership in farmer organizations substantially increase the share of formal loans. Higher consumption expenditure and larger landholdings are also positively associated. The logistic regression model reveals that households engaged in crop production are significantly more likely to access agricultural loans, especially when supported by KCC and insurance coverage. The log-log model shows credit demand to be inelastic with respect to interest rates, reflecting structural constraints. These findings underscore the critical role of institutional inclusion and economic capacity in enabling formal credit access, while highlighting the persistent limitations in expanding credit demand in rural IndiaLength: 52 pages |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Access to Credit, Farm Households, Interest SensitivityClassification-JEL: Q1, Q12, Q14 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2026-307 |
| By: | Goeb, Joseph; Minten, Bart; Aung, Nilar; Ei Win, Hnin |
| Abstract: | Access to timely credit is widely viewed as an important determinant of improved agricultural investment and productivity. However, little is known about how agricultural credit markets function during prolonged conflict. This paper examines how conflict shapes both the receipt of agricultural credit and the provision of informal credit by agrifood businesses in Myanmar, where conflict has been widespread in after 2021. Using rare data from both farmers and firms, we document a substantial decline in formal credit after conflict, but stable receipt of informal credit. In conflict-affected areas, formal credit receipt declined sharply – most notably from government-supported schemes and from microfinance institutions – while informal credit was more resilient – especially from friends and family and agribusinesses. Using direct elicitation methods of credit constraint classifications, we show that farmers in high conflict areas are more likely to voluntarily withdraw from credit markets and shift to self-financing. On the supply side, conflict has insignificant relationships to farm-credit provision by input retailers and rice mills. Taken together, our findings highlight the informal segment of agricultural credit markets as an underappreciated source of resilience in conflict-affected settings. |
| Keywords: | credit; conflicts; agricultural credit; access to finance; investment; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:183542 |
| By: | Shen Shen (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Early childhood investment, or the lack thereof, profoundly affects later-life outcomes, but whether social welfare protection aimed at encouraging parental investment mitigates or exacerbates inequitable distributive patterns within families remains elusive. This paper examines the response of intra-household inequality among siblings to a cluster randomised unconditional cash transfer programme implemented in some of Zambia’s poorest communities. We find that the transfers led to compensatory investment in higher birth-order children, particularly by meeting their material needs, although we do not observe a consistent pattern of internal restructuring in health and nutrition or education. These findings are robust across a spectrum of subsample analyses. We also provide tentative evidence affirming the conjecture that the transfers had raised parents’ aversion to inequality after three years of programme exposure, while marginally reinforcing their preference for younger and female children. The literature regards birth-order gradients as context-dependent; therefore, our findings may not be applicable to other settings. |
| Keywords: | Intra-household inequality; Unconditional cash transfers; Child Investment; Zambia |
| JEL: | D13 I38 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-017 |
| By: | Sanoh Yusuf (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effect of informational access on household cooking fuel choices across seven West African countries using nationally representative Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) data covering 51, 848 households in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. Informational access is proxied by household television ownership, while endogeneity is addressed using a leave-one-out cluster-level television ownership instrument within IV-2SLS, IV-Probit, and nonlinear control-function frameworks. Results show that television exposure significantly increases the probability of LPG adoption by 16.3 percentage points and charcoal use by 17.7 percentage points, while reducing firewood dependence by 13.0 percentage points. IV estimates are substantially larger than corresponding OLS estimates, suggesting that conventional models underestimate the role of informational frictions in household energy transitions. Strong heterogeneity emerges across spatial and socioeconomic groups. Urban households exhibit much larger clean-fuel responses, while rural households remain constrained by weak infrastructure, limited LPG availability, and affordability barriers. Among low-income households, informational exposure increases charcoal use more strongly than LPG adoption, indicating movement toward intermediate fuels rather than full transition to clean energy. The findings suggest that informational access is an important but insufficient driver of clean cooking transitions in West Africa and highlight the need to combine behavioural communication strategies with infrastructure expansion and affordability-focused clean cooking policies. |
| Keywords: | cooking fuel, television ownership, information access, instrumental variables, West Africa. |
| JEL: | O13 Q41 D83 C26 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2609 |
| By: | Gabriel Lara Ibarra; Minh C. Nguyen; Daylan Salmeron Gomez; Cameron Haddad |
| Abstract: | This note presents the 11th edition of the World Bank’s Multidimensional Poverty Measure (MPM) database, drawing on the latest country data from the Global Monitoring Database (GMD) as of April 2026. The MPM offers a broader view of poverty by examining deprivations along three dimensions of well-being: monetary poverty (measured using the international poverty line at $3.00 per person per day in 2021 PPP), education, and access to basic infrastructure services. This latest edition covers 100 economies for circa 2023, and notably includes India and Nigeria, which drastically increases the population coverage of the MPM globally. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbgpmt:51 |
| By: | Cabrera Hernandez, Francisco Javier; López, Arnoldo; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of a rise in female employment on municipal-level value added in Mexico. We combine economic census data with administrative records on the expansion of the Full-Time Schools Program (FTSP) to construct a shift-share instrument that links baseline female employment to predicted FTSP exposure between 2003 and 2018. Our estimates indicate that increasing female employment as a share of total employment increases the value added to gross output and fixed assets, as well as value added per worker, with no effect on wages, suggesting improvements in capital and labor efficiency. These effects are concentrated in municipalities with higher initial female employment rates, greater female educational attainment, and lower poverty levels. Such gains are driven primarily by increases in female employment in managerial and ownership roles. These results highlight the potential for increased female employment to enhance economic outcomes in contexts such as Mexico, where the female labor force participation rate remains stagnant. |
| JEL: | D20 J20 O40 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14668 |
| By: | Jing, Chunxiao |
| Abstract: | Structural transformation, the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to higher-productivity non-agricultural sectors, is widely viewed as a key driver of economic development. Yet in many African countries, labor leaving agriculture does not always transition into productive employment. This paper examines how agricultural productivity shocks affect labor reallocation and why similar shocks generate different employment outcomes across countries. Using household panel data from Niger, Malawi, and Ethiopia, combined with geospatial climate data, we construct a continuous measure of weather-driven agricultural productivity changes based on rainfall and temperature using a machine learning approach. Empirical results show that favorable weather productivity shocks reduce agricultural labor shares, but the employment outcomes of workers leaving agriculture vary substantially across countries: labor shifts into non-agricultural activities in Niger, spatial barriers limit access to jobs in Malawi, and institutional constraints lead to surplus labor in Ethiopia. To explain these patterns, we develop and estimate a microfounded model that combines a Lewis-type labor release mechanism with a Harris–Todaro–type job absorption process. Counterfactual policy simulations show that the effectiveness of policies—such as food subsidies, infrastructure improvements, and institutional reforms—depends on both country-specific labor market constraints and climate conditions. These findings highlight the importance of designing development policies that account for institutional context and climate variability when promoting structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404662 |
| By: | Issaka, Nadiatu; Elbakidze, Levan |
| Abstract: | We examine whether urbanization is associated with improved child nutrition in Ghana and whether the relationship operates through household wealth. Using four rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey from 2003, 2008, 2014, and 2022, we combine child anthropometric outcomes with harmonized satellite nighttime light data at the cluster level. Child nutrition is measured using height-for-age and weight-for-age z-scores, along with binary indicators for stunting and underweight. Nighttime light intensity serves as the main measure of local urban economic activity, while household electricity access is used as an alternative measure of urban-related infrastructure. We estimate mediation models that decompose the relationship between urbanization and child nutrition into a direct component and an indirect component operating through household wealth. To address potential endogeneity, current nighttime light intensity is instrumented with its five-year lag. We also extend the analysis to the community level using Foster-Greer-Thorbecke indices, which summarize the prevalence, depth, and severity of malnutrition across DHS clusters. The results show that nighttime light intensity has limited direct association with stunting and underweight but is strongly associated with household wealth. In the IV-corrected mediation models, household wealth accounts for about 65% of the total effect on stunting, 77% on underweight, 70% on height-for-age z-scores, and 92% on weight-for-age z-scores. Results using household electricity access are consistent with the importance of the wealth channel and suggest that household electrification may also be directly associated with stunting, HAZ, and WAZ. At the cluster level, urbanization is associated with reductions in stunting prevalence and depth, while the effects on stunting severity and all underweight FGT measures are statistically insignificant. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404660 |
| By: | Sanoh Yusuf (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal impact of financial inclusion on household welfare in West Africa by analyzing consumption diversification using Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) data from the World Bank on 51, 851 households across seven countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Instrumental Variables (IV) and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) were used for causal inference. The findings show that financial inclusion operates through distinct channels: it promotes food expenditure concentration via quality upgrading, expands non-food consumption into areas such as education and health, and induces structural reallocation from food to non-food budgets, with effects varying by financial modality. The results demonstrate that formal banking and microfinance drive long-term structural change. In contrast, mobile banking primarily facilitates short-term liquidity, offering targeted policy insights for enhancing financial inclusion strategies in the region. |
| Keywords: | Financial Inclusion, Theil entropy, consumption diversification, welfare, West Africa. |
| JEL: | G21 O16 I32 D12 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2610 |
| By: | Zhang, Xinyue; Zheng, Hongyun; Li, Jingyi |
| Abstract: | While promoting small-scale grain farmers’ market participation has been widely recognized as an effective way to improve farm performance, little is known about how different marketing channels affect production and sales outcomes. This study categorizes grain farmers’ marketing channel choices by the type of buyers they sell to: farmgate (door-to-door), non-farmgate informal, and non-farmgate formal channels. We examine the effects of grain farmers’ marketing channel choice on chemical input use, production costs, and sales behavior. Using a multivalued treatment effects (MVTE) framework with the inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) estimator, we address selection bias and estimate open-access data from the 2020 China Rural Revitalization Survey. Results show that, compared with selling through the farmgate channel, selling through the non-farmgate informal channel significantly increases sales frequency. However, compared to selling through both farmgate and non-farmgate informal channels, selling through the non-farmgate formal channel significantly reduces fertilizer and pesticide expenditures, production costs, and sale frequency, with these patterns varying by distance to town. This indicates that formal marketing channels may encourage more efficient input use and cost-saving practices, but involve fewer transactions. This study provides evidence for designing marketoriented policies that promote inclusive commercialization among small-scale grain farmers. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404705 |
| By: | Abagna, Matthew Amalitinga; Hornok, Cecília; Mulyukova, Alina |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence on the impact of a prominent place-based policy – Special Economic Zones (SEZs) – on the economic well-being of African households. Exploiting time variation in SEZ establishment on a dataset of repeated cross-sections of households in 10 African countries during 1990-2020, we show that households living near SEZs become wealthier relative to the national average after SEZ establishment. The effect accrues mostly within 10 km of SEZs, is not driven by selective migration, and is accompanied by improved access to household utilities, higher consumption of durable goods, increased educational attainment and a shift away from agricultural activities. |
| Keywords: | Special economic zone, Place-based policy, Household wealth, Africa |
| JEL: | F6 F21 O15 O25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:342327 |
| By: | Minocha, Sumedha |
| Abstract: | The first 1000 days of life is a well-known critical period in which nutrition is paramount. Yet, many women remain undernourished during this period, despite rising standards of living globally. Food transfer programs play a critical role in bridging this gap, but there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of many of these programs, limiting evidence-based policymaking in this sphere. This paper examined a natural experiment comparing two large-scale interventions delivered through village-based community centers: (i) nutritious rations offered as ready-to-cook food packets once every two months (ii) the same rations program bundled with daily nutritious cooked meals. I used quasi-experimental methods to construct comparable village- pairs and collected primary data from ~ 930 pregnant women in rural Maharashtra in India. Relative to women who were offered rations only, those offered the bundled program experienced significant increases in daily nutrient intake, an additional 264 calories and 8 grams of energy and protein, leaving the protein-energy ratio unchanged. As compared to women’s first trimester weight that were offered rations only, the bundled program led to additional weight gain of 2.03 kg in third trimester. Also, there are no spillover effects on the overall nutrient intake of women’s existing children under age six, but there is a shift in the composition. Overall, these findings demonstrate that integrating daily cooked meals into existing ration programs can substantially improve maternal dietary intake and gestational weight, while generating benign intra-household spillovers on children. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404578 |
| By: | Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit; Shankar, Binay |
| Abstract: | Informal enterprises employ most of India's non-agricultural workforce, yet little is known about how they cope with rising temperatures. Combining satellite-derived temperature data with roughly 1.7 million firm records from five rounds of India's unincorporated-enterprise surveys (2010-2024), we estimate the effect of heat stress on informal-sector labor demand. We find that greater exposure to elevated temperatures reduces labor demand: firms employ fewer workers and hire less. The decline is accompanied by lower turnover, value added, and labor productivity, together with shorter working hours and fewer operating months, suggesting that heat induces firms to contract both the scale and intensity of production. The adverse employment effects are strongest among employer firms, manufacturing and service enterprises, and businesses operating outside the household, and have intensified over time. Finally, drawing on the Periodic Labour Force Survey, we show that labor-force participation does not fall while real wages decline-the signature of a demand contraction, not a supply withdrawal. |
| Keywords: | Firms, Heat, India, Informal Sector, Labor Demand, Temperature |
| JEL: | L25 Q54 O17 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1785 |
| By: | Li, Wei; Kafle, Kashi; Songsermsawas, Tisorn; Mendiratta, Vibhuti |
| Abstract: | Chronic poverty among the most marginalized rural households is often attributed to structural poverty traps that large, one-off “big push”interventions are meant to overcome. We evaluate the Odisha PVTG Empowerment and Livelihoods Improvement Programme (OPELIP), a bundled agricultural “cargo-net” intervention targeting Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups in eastern India, using a three-wave household panel with a matched quasi-experimental control group. We combine difference-in-differences estimation with transition-matrix analysis to test whether the program shifted well-being dynamics across four dimensions: consumption, assets, multidimensional poverty, and income. The program raised household consumption by approximately 13-14 percent in the short run and lowered households’ probability of falling into asset poverty, but these effects are concentrated in the early post-program period and do not extend to the asset index or the multidimensional poverty index. Multidimensional poverty remains highly chronic and equally persistent across treatment and control households. The results suggest that, over this horizon, OPELIP operated more as a consumption-supporting safety net than as a cargo-net capable of moving households out of structural, multidimensional poverty traps, underscoring the value of multidimensional assessment in evaluating large-scale rural development programs. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404634 |
| By: | Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Raquel Fernández (NYU) |
| Abstract: | Female labor force participation (LFP) and fertility have evolved jointly across Latin America, with participation rising as fertility declined over the last two decades. This paper studies the extent to which changes in fertility can account for increases in women’s labor supply in the five largest economies in the region as well as in the US. Defining three groups based solely on the presence of children under age 6, under age 13, and no children under age 13, we find that in all countries changes in labor supply within groups overwhelmingly dominate the compositional shifts induced by declining fertility. When we further disaggregate women into groups by their education in addition to the age of their children, the changing composition of the population becomes more important and the increase in LFP is mostly driven by more educated women without children under age 13, reflecting increases in both their participation and population share. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0379 |
| By: | Nkhoma, Nomore; Chen, Xiaonan |
| Abstract: | Digital technologies are widely promoted as tools for raising smallholder agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet existing causal evidence is geographically fragmented and rarely accounts for high-dimensional selection into adoption, leaving the magnitude of productivity returns uncertain. This study estimates the causal effect of mobile phone ownership on both farm production value and maize yield using the Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS5, 2019-2020) and a Double Machine Learning (DML) framework. We implement partially linear regression (PLR) and interactive regression models (IRM) with a suite of machine learners to flexibly control for high-dimensional confounders. Our stacked DML estimates indicate that mobile phone ownership raises log farm production value by 10.7 percent and log maize yield by 5.9 percent, with consistent results across learners and IV specifications using a leave-one-out community mobile ownership instrument. Pathway analysis identifies fertilizer use and formal credit access as the dominant mechanisms, with secondary contributions from ICT-based extension and improved seed adoption. Productivity gains are concentrated among youth-headed households and in the Centre and Southern regions, where complementary market infrastructure amplifies the returns to digital connectivity. We contribute new causal evidence that mobile phones function as productive agricultural infrastructure and document that the yield and production channels operate through distinct but reinforcing pathways. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404385 |
| By: | Fernández-Kranz, Daniel (IE University); Trinh, Trong-Anh (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | India reached below-replacement fertility (TFR = 2.0) despite low income, persistent traditional gender norms, and declining female labour force participation. We study how the expansion of a decentralized, fee-based education market reshaped fertility decisions by increasing households’ exposure to the cost of child quality. Because sons are more likely than daughters to be enrolled in private schools, this cost channel interacts with son preference to generate gender-differentiated fertility stopping behavior. We test predicitons from a dynamic model of parity progression using survey data from NFHS (2015–21) merged with administrative district-level UDISE data on 37, 251 women in 525 districts at the parity-2-to-3 margin. We find that households with only daughters are less responsive to local private-school prevalence than otherwise similar households with sons. This result is stable across subsamples, the exclusion of recent migrants, controls for modernization proxies, and controls for differential baseline-fertility trends. At the district level, private-school expansion is associated with lower parity progression, but this effect is sensitive to district-level confounding. |
| Keywords: | fertility, private schooling, household decision-making, developing economies |
| JEL: | J13 I25 O15 D13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18771 |
| By: | Marino, Maria (Universitat de Barcelona); Ramos, Xavier (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Turati, Riccardo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational social mobility, migration aspirations, and participation in political demonstrations. Using individual-level data from the Latinobarómetro between 2002 and 2023, we show that individuals experiencing negative intergenerational educational mobility are more likely to express a desire to migrate and to participate into peaceful protests, whereas those with positive mobility exhibit the opposite pattern. Our analysis further suggests that the decision to migrate and to protest may be shaped by a common underlying decision process. Finally, we find that confidence in political institutions and positive economic expectations substantially mitigate expressions of social discontent in the form of migration aspirations and protest participation. Overall, the results indicate that unequal opportunities across generations are an important determinant of both migration intentions and political engagement. |
| Keywords: | social mobility, protest, migration |
| JEL: | D74 J61 J62 O15 F22 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18789 |