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on Development |
| By: | Bhattarai, Keshav; Adhikari, Ambika P. (Institute for Integrated Development Studies (IIDS)) |
| Abstract: | This article examines how accelerating automation and the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in advanced economies reshape labor markets across the Global South through interconnected channels of production, migration, and remittances. Drawing on the theories and practices of economic geography, labor economics, and development studies, the analysis conceptualizes automation as a transnational shock that contracts demand for migrant labor while simultaneously amplifying employment precarity in labor-surplus economies. The article advances a geographically grounded framework linking technology adoption in core industries with labor displacement, youth unemployment, and urban labor saturation in South Asia and North Africa. It further highlights the macroeconomic vulnerabilities in developing countries arising from remittance dependence and the role of digital media in shaping youth mobilization and political unrest in their native countries. By integrating comparative regional field evidence with a technology–labor–space framework, the study contributes to economic geography by demonstrating how digital transformation reconfigures development patterns across regions and countries. The findings underscore the limits of technology-led growth strategies in labor-abundant contexts and call for employment-centered digital policies that are spatially differentiated and institutionally grounded. Keywords: automation, artificial intelligence, labor markets, remittances, youth unemployment, economic geography, Global South. |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3cjve_v1 |
| By: | Pablo Alvarez-Aragon |
| Abstract: | Conventional demographic models systematically overestimate fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper proposes a complementary explanation grounded in a prevalent but understudied belief system: ancestors influence the living and seek the continuation of their lineage, into which they may be reincarnated. In this worldview, having children becomes a moral and collective duty, rooted in the spiritual responsibility to ensure the survival of the lineage. Drawing on first-hand data, novel ethnographic information, and historical and contemporary surveys, I document a strong and quantitatively large positive relationship between ancestral beliefs and fertility across contexts and time periods. A simple model in which children are a public good for the lineage rationalizes the patterns observed in the data: the fertility effect of ancestral beliefs is concentrated in patrilineal societies, and a specific form of free-riding emerges among siblings whose children continue the same family line. These findings suggest that high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa rests on moral foundations that standard, externally designed interventions tend to overlook. |
| JEL: | O12 J13 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1226 |
| By: | Olayinka Oyekola (Department of Economics, University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | How does terrorism affect labor markets in developing countries? We combine georeferenced data on terrorist incidents with nationally representative employment data from Nigeria to examine this question. Exploiting within-location variation in exposure to terrorist attacks over time, we show that terrorism reduces employment. A one standard deviation increase in exposure lowers the probability of employment by 0.7 percentage points, or roughly 1 percent of average employment, with substantially larger effects for women. Beyond reducing employment, terrorism shifts workers away from regular and cash-paying jobs and lowers employment in sales, services, and unskilled manual occupations. The findings identify labor market disruption as an important economic cost of insecurity in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | terrorism, employment, labor markets, gender, Nigeria |
| JEL: | D74 J21 J22 J23 J46 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2607 |
| By: | Minten, Bart; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu; Monoi, Belinda; Schmidt, Emily; Sikas-Iha, Helmtrude |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the fresh produce market in Papua New Guinea (PNG) using unique market flow and price data collected by the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) over the past 15 years across multiple markets. We document substantial flows of fresh produce from diverse production zones to major urban centers, with Port Moresby emerging as the primary terminal market. Hard fresh produce and sweet potato supplied there largely originate from the Highlands, while other staples and soft fresh produce are mostly sourced from other regions. Price analysis reveals four key patterns: (i) fresh produce prices have risen significantly relative to non-food products, particularly for items less supplied by the Highlands; (ii) prices exhibit strong seasonality—lowest at year-end and highest mid-year (June–August)—reflecting major cultivation periods and possibly seasonality in household labor availability; (iii) marketing margins have increased substantially, especially for soft fresh produce, creating new opportunities for Highland producers to compete in Port Moresby markets; and (iv) in 2023–2025, marketing and wastage costs accounted for the largest share of retail prices in Port Moresby—up to 85 percent for cabbage—while producer shares ranged from 15 percent for cabbage to 61 percent for Irish potatoes. These findings underscore evolving market dynamics and the critical role of supply chain efficiency in PNG’s fresh produce sector. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; markets; prices; fresh products; seasonality; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfwp:182349 |
| By: | Iyer, S.; Petrukhin, D.; Shrivastava, A. |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the economic effects of communal riots in India using a new district–year panel for 1994–2013 that combines extended riot data with nightlights, manufacturing outcomes, infrastructure, and district-level credit. To address endogeneity, we use quasi-random variation generated when major Hindu festivals fall on a Friday (Fridays draw large Muslim congregations for weekly prayers) and construct a spatially weighted instrument for local riot risk. Instrumental variable estimates show that higher riot exposure leads to sizable and persistent economic losses. A one-unit increase in distance-weighted exposure reduces nightlights by about 0.105 log points, implying a GDP decline of roughly 0.45%. We trace several channels, including contractions in firm output and employment, fewer bank branches, less agricultural credit, and a thinner market infrastructure. Using the timing of household surveys relative to riots, we also find that trust in state institutions declines. Together, the results quantify the economic costs of communal riots and identify the mechanisms through which social conflict depresses local economic activity. |
| Date: | 2026–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2644 |
| By: | Katariina Nilsson Hakkala (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of special economic zones (SEZs) on firm growth and the regional business environment in Viet Nam, highlighting their key role as a policy tool to attract foreign investors. Using detailed panel data from Viet Nam’s 63 provinces from 2006 to 2020 and instrumental variables (IV) estimations, this study provides new insights into how SEZs impact firm growth and several dimensions of economic governance. SEZs are found to play a dual role. Provinces with broader SEZ coverage experienced increases in employment, revenues, and the number of foreign-invested enterprises. In contrast, domestic private firms faced declines in both revenues and numbers. SEZ exposure had negative effects on several aspects of provincial economic governance including land access, transparency in policy-making, and informal charges. In addition, the approval of the first SEZ was also associated with increased prevalence of informal charges and preferential treatment of foreign-invested enterprises and other big companies, which may indicate heightened inefficiencies and rent-seeking concerns. |
| Keywords: | special economic zones;foreign direct investment;business environment and development |
| JEL: | F21 F23 L53 |
| Date: | 2026–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022604 |
| By: | Anne Brockmeyer; François Gerard; Gabriel Ulyssea; Linda Wu; Marcelo Bergolo; Rodrigo Ceni González; Benard Kirui; Andrea Lopez-Luzuriaga; Leonardo Fabio Morales; Andrea Otero-Cortés; Nadine Riedel; Matías Tapia; Tanisa Tawichsri; Verena Wiedemann |
| Abstract: | This paper studies formal employment dynamics using linked employer-employee data from eight countries spanning a wide income range from Kenya to Chile. First, we show that formality rates increase with development, both between and within countries, because more workers enter the formal sector, not because they spend more time in formal jobs. Second, formal labor market fluidity increases with development, as workers hold more formal jobs, spend less time in each job, and less time between jobs. Third, greater fluidity is associated with higher life-cycle wage growth, which is largely accounted for by within- rather than between-firm wage gains. |
| Keywords: | Formal Employment, Economic Development, Life-Cycle Wage Growth |
| JEL: | O17 J46 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26154 |
| By: | DIAKITE, Nanamoudou; DIALLO, Ibrahima; SENE, Omar; SENE, Babacar |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether mobile money reduces gender gaps in financial autonomy across six Sahelian countries using Afrobarometer Round 9 data (2021-2023, N=6, 540). Instrumenting adoption with distance to traditional financial services, we find pronounced heterogeneity: mobile money increases women's autonomy by 11 percentage points in Senegal (26% gap reduction) and 16 points in Sudan (38% reduction), with no detectable effects in four other countries. This variation correlates with ecosystem maturity, agent density, and regulatory quality. Mechanisms include transactional discretion, informal credit access, and enhanced security. Transformative impacts require 10-14 years ecosystem maturation and agent density above 1 per 2, 000 inhabitants. Digital finance advances women's empowerment only under specific institutional conditions. |
| Keywords: | Mobile money; Gender; Financial inclusion; Instrumental variables; Sub-Saharan Africa; Sahel; Women empowerment; Heterogeneous effects |
| JEL: | G21 J16 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129244 |
| By: | Pawel Adrjan (Indeed); Yusuke Aoki (Indeed); Gabriele Ciminelli (Asian Development Bank); Robin Döttling (Erasmus University of Rotterdam); Sílvia Garcia-Mandicó (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of digital and artificial intelligence (AI) skill demand across six economies in Asia and the Pacific between 2019 and 2024 using millions of online job postings from Indeed and a large language model to classify them by their required level of digital and AI proficiency. Digital skill requirements are widespread across the occupational distribution and have expanded most rapidly in traditionally low and mid digital jobs, pointing to broad technological diffusion. Jobs requiring higher digital proficiency command substantially higher pay, even when comparing job postings within the same job title and controlling for cognitive, interpersonal, organizational, and technical skill requirements. We estimate wage premia of approximately 4%, 11%, and 26% for basic, intermediate, and advanced digital skills, respectively, with intermediate and advanced digital skills commanding larger premia than many other highly rewarded skills. We also document a sharp increase in demand for AI-related competencies, particularly those related to the use of AI tools. |
| Keywords: | digital skills;artificial intelligence;online job postings;labor market;wage premium;large language models;Asia and the Pacific |
| JEL: | C55 J24 J30 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022642 |
| By: | Goeb, Joseph; Minten, Bart; Reardon, Thomas; Zu, A Myint; Htar, May Thet |
| Abstract: | Increased vertical integration and coordination are defining features of transforming and modernizing agricultural value chains in low- and middle-income countries, with important implications for market efficiency and farm-level transformation. However, research documenting these processes in modernizing domestic value chains is limited, and tends to focus on foreign direct investment and high-value food products. We study the rice value chain – the most important staple in Southeast Asia – in Myanmar and use unique data from domestic rice mills and farmers to analyze millers’ expansion into other businesses and services. We show that both modern and traditional mills serve as key nodes in local rice value chains, fulfilling diverse roles beyond processing at both the farm and post-farm levels and highlighting a co-development of modern processing and vertical integration. Yet, statistical tests that control for mill and farmer characteristics, respectively, show that modern mills are more engaged in vertical integration and coordination, particularly in post-farm value chain segments, highlighting the co-development of modern processing and business expansion. Consistent with this pattern in the miller data, farmers using a modern mill are more likely to receive complementary services – especially post-farm – and to adopt modern production practices more broadly. However, this expansion is uneven, reaching large farms more frequently than small and medium farms. |
| Keywords: | value chains; agricultural value chains; rice; agro-industrial sector; vertical integration; modernization; milling; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:182623 |
| By: | Shuhei Nishitateno (Kwansei Gakuin University and RIETI); Yasuyuki Todo (Waseda University and RIETI) |
| Abstract: | How Western donors respond to China's expanding development finance remains contested, with competing hypotheses and limited systematic evidence. This study estimates the effect of Chinese aid on bilateral official development assistance (ODA) provided by donors in the OECD Development Assistance Committee (OECD-DAC). Using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator on a four-dimensional panel covering 31 donors, 130 recipients, and 13 sectors from 2001 to 2019, the analysis exploits within-recipient-sector-year variation in Chinese aid shocks and incorporates an extensive set of multi-way fixed effects to address endogeneity concerns. While no average competitive response is detected across all donors, we find consistent evidence that Japan systematically increased its ODA commitments in reaction to Chinese engagement, amounting to an estimated US$ 5.4 billion, or 2.5% of Japan's total ODA commitments in our sample during the study period. Japan's competitive responses are concentrated in geographically proximate and more democratic recipients, consistent with its geopolitical and normative priorities. No comparable response is detected for other major OECD-DAC donors, including the United States, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Taken together, the results show that Japan's behaviour illustrates how a traditional donor can strategically deploy ODA as part of a broader foreign policy and industrial strategy, but the scale of its response remains modest. Combined with the muted reactions of other donors, this suggests that the OECD-DAC system is more resilient to China's emergence as a major donor than often assumed. |
| Keywords: | Aid competition, official development assistance, China, Japan |
| JEL: | F35 P45 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2606 |
| By: | Ei Win, Hnin; Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper presents findings from an assessment of farm commercialization and farm services during the 2025 monsoon. The analysis is based on data from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), a phone-based survey conducted with 4, 553 crop farmers across all states/regions of the country during Q1 of 2026. Our findings reveal the following: Insecurity continues to affect farming, as reflected in the substantial share of farmers who feel unsafe and report being unable to move freely to buy inputs or sell outputs without serious concerns for their safety. Twenty-three percent of farmers reported feeling “very insecure” or “insecure” during the survey period. Additionally, 7 percent reported that some agricultural fields in their area could not be cultivated due to conflict. Furthermore, 9 percent of farmers expressed fear of storing produce at home because of the risk of confiscation or destruction. Despite challenges related to fuel and mobility, agricultural inputs were largely available during the monsoon, reflecting the resilience of the private sector in supplying these goods even under difficult conditions. However, labor scarcity is becoming more pronounced, seemingly linked to migration and insecurity. Input prices continued to rise, with fertilizer prices increasing by 24 percent compared to two years earlier. Other input costs, including mechanization and wages, increased even more. On the output side, prices for paddy—grown by 64 percent of all farmers during the monsoon—fell over the last two years, leading to reduced investments and lower agricultural productivity. Other crops linked to export markets also experienced price declines or only moderate increases over the same period, including pigeon pea (-18 percent) and maize (+28 percent), compared to much larger increases for more domestically consumed crops such as tomato (+178 percent), betel nut (+75 percent), and betel leaves (+43 percent). Most farmers reported either stabilization or worsening of agricultural sales income compared to the previous monsoon. Thirty-nine percent of farmers reported lower incomes in the 2025 monsoon season than in the previous monsoon, with 22 percent experiencing declines of more than 20 percent. Only 30 percent reported an increase in sales income. The use of agricultural credit during the 2025 monsoon continued its decline, falling from 47 percent of farmers in 2021 to 38 percent in 2025—a decrease of 9 percentage points. This decline occurred across all agro-ecological zones except the Delta. Access to agricultural extension services remained at levels similar to previous years, with 35 percent of farmers accessing some type of extension service. Security challenges continue to hinder crop commercialization in Myanmar. Conditions vary across states and regions, with the Delta—the country’s rice bowl—experiencing relatively better security conditions. Farmers in conflict-affected areas face greater obstacles to commercialization, including reduced availability of agricultural inputs. |
| Keywords: | commercialization; agricultural sector; surveys; wet season; prices; marketing; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:183097 |
| By: | Filippo, Agustín; Guaipatín, Carlos; Navarro, Lucas; Willington, Ignacio; Wyss, Federico |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the employment effects of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Mexico, focusing on the labor market impacts of foreign tariff increases during 2018-2019. Using data from Mexicos National Survey of Occupations and Employment (ENOE) for 2014-2023 combined with sector-level tariff exposure measures based on Fajgelbaum et al. (2024), we construct a quarterly city-sector panel distinguishing employment in MNEs and domestic firms. We analyze employment outcomes across worker characteristics (education, age, gender) and firm attributes (size and location). Results indicate a positive employment effect in MNEs within the sectors most affected by the tariff increases, particularly for highly educated workers and small establishments. In contrast, there is no clear evidence of significant effects on wages. |
| Keywords: | Trade and Labor Market Interactions;Multinational Firms;International Business |
| JEL: | F16 F23 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14619 |
| By: | Mohamed, Shima; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Rakhy, Tarig |
| Abstract: | Sudan’s agricultural sector in 2026 is facing unprecedented challenges due to the ongoing conflict, economic instability, and climate-related shocks. These overlapping crises have severely disrupted farming activities, market systems, and rural livelihoods across the country. The situation is particularly critical for smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Sudan’s food production and rural economy. This report assesses the state of agriculture in conflict-affected Sudan, with a focus on input use, crop production, market access, and farming household-level challenges. It draws data from the Sudan 2024 Smallholder Farmers Survey, conducted across 13 of Sudan’s 18 states. The survey covered both the 2023/24 winter cropping season and preparations for the 2024 summer season. The findings reveal that Sudan’s agriculture sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict. Migration and displacement due to the conflict are reshaping the structure of farming households, while asset losses, reduced cultivated land, and declining livestock holdings undermine their resilience. Household incomes have contracted sharply. Engagement in agricultural activities has dropped, while reliance of farming households on non-agricultural businesses, casual labor, and humanitarian assistance has increased. Food insecurity has reached alarming levels—fewer than one in four households are food secure, while over half are severely food insecure. Food-insecure households are most prevalent in conflict-affected states, such as South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Blue Nile. However, improvements were seen in access to input and output markets and the adoption of agricultural inputs in the 2023/24 winter season compared to the 2023 summer season. Farmers reported better availability of improved seed and fertilizer and more reliable input markets and crop-selling channels. However, these gains are overshadowed by growing uncertainty—a large portion of farmers indicated that they did not plan to cultivate crops during the 2024 summer season. Farmer’s access to finance and external assistance remained highly constrained. Farming households that used credit primarily relied on informal credit sources. More than three-quarters reported receiving no external assistance in 2024. Where support is available, its distribution remains uneven, with conflict-affected areas facing severe delivery challenges. Farmers report widespread exposure to both idiosyncratic and covariate shocks such as illness, flooding, theft, and violence—all of which compound their vulnerability. The coping strategies they use include selling household goods, reducing agricultural investment, or liquidating assets. Such choices provide short-term relief but jeopardize their long-term recovery. Perceptions of insecurity remain widespread, particularly in states experiencing active conflict. Overall, the findings paint a picture of a farming sector under extreme strain in Sudan. Without urgent, state-specific, and conflict-sensitive interventions, rural livelihoods will continue to deteriorate, further threatening national food security. The report concludes with recommendations to strengthen humanitarian support, revitalize agricultural input and finance systems, protect the assets of farming households, restore markets, and invest in building the resilience of farming households to both conflict and climate risks. Tailored interventions are needed to address state-level disparities, including food and security support in the Kordofan region, water and health services in Red Sea and Kassala states, and agricultural inputs in Aj Jazirah and River Nile. Long-term strategies must also invest in climate-smart agriculture, strengthen social protection systems, and ensure conflict-sensitive approaches that protect farmers and rebuild trust in rural communities. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; farming; livelihoods; resilience; armed conflicts; smallholders; surveys; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:182880 |