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on Development |
| By: | Wei, Zhiwu; Luca, Davide; Lee, Neil; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | The political consequences of inequality have become a matter of mounting concern. Relative deprivation theory posits that frustration arising from comparisons with proximate reference groups can fuel protests. Yet research has concentrated overwhelmingly on the Global North, notwithstanding the acute wealth disparities experienced by the majority of the world’s population in the Global South. To address this gap, we assemble novel, fine-grained estimates of relative wealth at the 2.4 km × 2.4 km grid level to derive measures of local wealth inequality, which we link to over 645, 000 georeferenced protest events recorded from 2014 to 2018. Exploiting variation within subnational regions, we document a robust, positive association between local wealth inequality and protest incidence. We show that the inequality–protest relationship is anchored in individuals’ immediate surroundings. As the spatial radius defining ‘local’ expands, the association weakens, highlighting the primacy of experienced inequality. We also find that the inequality-protest link is mediated by national characteristics. The study advances the social sciences by furnishing novel empirical evidence on the micro-geographic underpinnings of political instability, demonstrating that inequality’s political effects hinge on proximity, local class structure and national institutional environment. |
| Keywords: | protest; inequality; wealth; Global South; subnational analysis |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137937 |
| By: | Arteaga Vallejo, Julian Gabriel; De Roux, Nicolas; Gáfaro, Margarita; Ibáñez, Ana María; Pellegrina, Heitor S. |
| Abstract: | We study how weather shocks affect the farm-size distribution and agricultural productivity. Using survey data from several developing countries, we document new empirical patterns in farm-size dynamics and the effect of weather shocks. Drawing on unique administrative data from Colombia with land-transaction records, census-based farm sizes, and household surveys on consumption and investment, we show that shocks intensify land market activity and increase the number of small farms, reducing average farm size within regions. We calibrate a heterogeneous-agent model that endogenizes the farm-size distribution and use it to study mechanisms and the dynamic effects of weather shocks and climate change. |
| JEL: | O13 Q15 Q12 Q54 D24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14583 |
| By: | Couto Ribeiro, Beatriz; Castillo, Adriana; Pérez Urdiales, María |
| Abstract: | Limited access to safe and proximate water remains a defining constraint in Haiti, where access to piped water remains limited and school enrollment is not universal. Using a pseudo-panel constructed from four rounds of the Haiti Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), we estimate the causal impact of water hauling time on childrens school enrollment. Our findings reveal a strong and statistically significant, each additional minute spent fetching water reduces the likelihood of enrollment by about 1.3 percentage points, with substantially larger effects in rural areas where hauling time is highest. Gender-specific estimates reveal that the burden of distance is not symmetric. While girls more often perform water collection overall, boys disproportionately undertake long-distance trips, and simulated enrollment probabilities indicate a widening gender gap once collection times exceed 3040 minutes, with boys experiencing steeper enrollment losses. These findings demonstrate how deficient water infrastructure depresses educational participation, underscoring the potential of investments in improved and more proximate water access to generate meaningful school enrollment gains. |
| Keywords: | water;Haiti;children;school enrollment;Education;demographic and health surveys |
| JEL: | Q25 H31 I24 C36 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14591 |
| By: | Adriana Camacho (CAF); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Luis Laguinge (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Jorge Puig (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Hernán Winkler (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study the responses of household electricity consumption to temperature changes, focusing on asymmetries between welfare deciles. Our analysis exploits a unique panel dataset for Peru that links household survey microdata with repeated administrative records on energy use and local temperature. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate how electricity consumption varies with temperature, highlighting the unequal capacity of households across income deciles to adapt to climate change. Based on this evidence, we propose and implement a novel measure of adaptive energy poverty, which captures households’ ability to respond to rising ambient temperatures through increased electricity consumption. |
| JEL: | I31 Q41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0372 |
| By: | Bharti Nandwani (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Ishita Verma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of India's landmark Forest Rights Act (FRA), which granted indigenous forest-dwelling communities legal rights to manage and protect forests, on the incidence of forest fires. Combining high-resolution satellite fire data with a village-level panel, we exploit pre-reform variation in forest cover in a difference-in-differences framework to identify the causal impact of the FRA on the occurrence and intensity of forest fires. We find that, following FRA, villages with greater forest cover experienced significant reductions in the likelihood and severity of fires. District-level data on the actual distribution of forest land titles corroborate these results. We further show that the decline in forest fires is accompanied by broader environmental improvements, including reductions in PM2.5 concentrations and burned area, highlighting the ecological gains from community-based forest governance. |
| Keywords: | Forest land rights, Property rights, Forest Fires, Environment, Common pool resources, Forest governance, Satellite data |
| JEL: | Q15 Q23 Q54 O13 H41 K11 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2026-006 |
| By: | Bugingo, Arnold; Mugabo, Lambert; MacDonald, Laura; Noriega, Abbie; Thomas, Evan; Muthike, Denis |
| Abstract: | Rural households in Rwanda face intensifying risks from climate variability, including erratic rainfall, recurrent droughts, and flooding that threaten food and water security. Households in areas with limited infrastructure and constrained livelihood options are particularly vulnerable due to reduced adaptive capacity. Drawing on longitudinal data from over 60, 000 household surveys and remote sensing observations, this study investigated the co-occurrence of household food and water insecurity and evaluated associations between geographical, biophysical, and socioeconomic factors and food insecurity outcomes. Approximately 19.4% of surveyed households—equivalent to about 2.8 million people nationally—experienced simultaneous food and water insecurity, with co-occurrence higher in the control group (21.1%) than in the intervention group (18.3%). A mixed-effects logistic regression revealed strong associations between food insecurity and water insecurity, household size, and income, with water insecurity increasing the odds of food insecurity by approximately 60%. These findings underscore the need for climate resilience programs in Rwanda to explicitly address the interplay between food and water insecurity alongside the mediating roles of climatic and non-climatic factors in shaping household well-being. |
| Date: | 2026–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a89e5_v1 |
| By: | Ahmed, Musa Hasen; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Mesfin, Hiwot Mekonnen; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of drought shocks on unintended pregnancies across 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results show that drought exposure increases the likelihood of unintended pregnancy by one to two percentage points (about 3 to 6 percent), depending on the specification. The analysis further finds that children born from unintended pregnancies are less likely to receive antenatal care, less likely to be delivered in health facilities, and more vulnerable to illness. The findings also show that unintended pregnancies have implications for women’s labor market outcomes. Overall, the findings indicate that drought shocks intensify women’s economic and reproductive vulnerabilities. Given the wide-ranging consequences of unintended births for both mothers and children, the results high-light the importance of integrating reproductive health interventions into climate adaptation policies. |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11364 |
| By: | Bargain, Olivier (University of Bordeaux); Jara, H. (London School of Economics); Rivera, David (Bordeaux University) |
| Abstract: | Tax–benefit systems in Latin America have expanded alongside social protection, yet persistently high informality continues to constrain fiscal capacity and redistribution. This paper examines how tax policy changes affect formal employment in Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador over three periods (2008–2014/15-2019). The multi-country, multi-period design generates multiple quasi-experiments, enhancing external validity relative to studies focused on single reforms. We measure the implicit tax burden of moving from informal to formal work and estimate behavioral responses using grouped estimations robust to treatment heterogeneity. Higher tax burdens on formalization significantly reduce formal employment, with stronger responses concentrated among low-skilled, often self-employed workers facing high social contributions. Counterfactual simulations show that revenue-neutral reforms combining the removal of contribution floors with higher top taxation may simultaneously raise formalization and income tax progressivity, suggesting that expanding redistribution and limiting efficiency costs need not be in conflict in Latin American labor markets. |
| Keywords: | informality, employment, self-employment, tax burden, social contributions, income tax, benefits |
| JEL: | H24 H31 J24 J46 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18621 |
| By: | Brehm, Margaret E.; Brehm, Paul A.; Cassidy, Alecia; Cassidy, Traviss |
| Abstract: | Using a natural experiment in Indonesia, we estimate the separate economic effects of natural resource booms and shared resource revenue. Contrary to Dutch disease concerns, oil and gas booms promote manufacturing growth, and shared revenue does not harm local manufacturing firms. Shared revenue significantly raises local non-oil GDP, but resource booms do not. Supply-side factors help explain the results: shared revenue increases local population and firm entry, while resource booms do not. Oil and gas booms thus benefit local economies largely through shared revenue. Where the revenue is spent matters more for local growth than where the resources are extracted. |
| Keywords: | Growth, resource booms, decentralization, manufacturing firms, Indonesia, Dutch disease |
| JEL: | H77 O13 O14 Q32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128970 |
| By: | Marchesi, Daniele (University of Groningen); Angelini, Viola (University of Groningen); Nikolova, Milena (University of Groningen); Popova, Olga (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS)) |
| Abstract: | We are the first to examine how adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) influence the support for redistribution in adulthood. Using data from the 2022-2024 wave of the Global Flourishing Study on over 160, 000 individuals from 22 countries, we construct measures of ACEs based on retrospective information on parental relationships, abuse, health, and household finances while growing up. We document cross-country variation in both ACE prevalence and redistributive preferences between high-income and low- and middle-income countries. Specifically, exposure to ACEs is associated with stronger support for redistribution only in high-income countries, suggesting that the relationship between early-life adversity and economic preferences is context-dependent. We explore several mechanisms that underpin our relationship. We find evidence for a material self-interest channel, whereby childhood adversity lowers adult income and increases demand for government support. Yet, this mechanism explains only a small part of the total association, suggesting that alternative pathways drive the relationship. Overall, the results show that early-life adversity is a previously overlooked and context-dependent determinant of redistributive preferences. |
| Keywords: | preferences for redistribution, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), early-life conditions, inequality attitudes, Global Flourishing Study |
| JEL: | D31 D72 H23 J12 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18622 |
| By: | Rathore, Udayan; Singh, Ashish |
| Abstract: | We leverage a quasi-natural experiment from India on introduction of free bus schemes for women to study its impact on women's labour force participation (WLFP) and other welfare indicators. We use two rounds of the representative Time Use Survey (2019 and 2024) and a triple difference estimation strategy, complemented by an event study type framework to identify the causal relationship of interest. Findings reveal that the bus scheme is successful in improving women's paid work participation and the duration of employment. These results are not a continuation of prior trends. The effects are mainly concentrated among early adopters like Punjab and Tamil Nadu, two states with historically different levels of WLFP. Moreover, the effects are disproportionately higher for women residing in more patriarchal districts and those facing higher mobility restrictions. We argue that the scheme works through easing of non-financial binding constraints, which lowers barriers to women's mobility and workforce participation. |
| Keywords: | Women labour force participation, Women's mobility, Patriarchy, Public transit subsidies, Time-Use, India |
| JEL: | J16 J17 J22 J28 R48 O53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1755 |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Makate, Clifton (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Land rental markets are often viewed as an important mechanism for improving allocative efficiency in smallholder agriculture. A growing literature has used nationally representative household panel data, particularly the LSMS–ISA surveys, to study land rental market participation and land allocation in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the reliability of these analyses depends critically on how accurately land ownership and operational holdings and rental transactions are measured in the survey data. <p> This paper examines how measurement instability in reported land holdings affects empirical assessments of land rental markets and allocative efficiency. Using LSMS–ISA panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Uganda, we document substantial instability in reported ownership holdings across survey rounds and show that this instability is systematically correlated with land rental participation. Rental land access statistics for landless and land-poor tenants are particularly sensitive to instability in reported ownership, with strong implications for the assessment of how pro-poor land rental markets are. We also find persistent large imbalances between reported tenant and landlord activity, suggesting substantial underreporting of rented out land.<p> We then assess allocative efficiency using three complementary approaches: the Bliss–Stern benchmark relating net land leasing to owned land, dynamic models of tenant participation, and conditional rental intensity models. The results indicate that ownership measurement instability can affect estimates of allocative efficiency, but tenant-side dynamics remain informative. Overall, the findings suggest that while survey-based estimates of landlord participation may be unreliable, nationally representative panel data can still provide useful insights into land rental market functioning and underlying reasons for limited adjustment when measurement constraints are explicitly addressed. |
| Keywords: | Land rental market; allocative efficiency; data reliability policy relevance |
| JEL: | C23 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2026_004 |
| By: | Mr. Alexander Zaborovskiy |
| Abstract: | The use of IMF credit for budgetary financing (budget support) has surged in Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangements with low-income countries (LICs) post pandemic, yet its role in growth and adjustment remains understudied. This paper provides the first systematic analysis of budget support across all 100 ECFs approved since the PRGT’s inception in 2010. We develop a reduced-form model that captures how budget support affects the growth-reserves trade-off, where budget support substitutes for domestic financing and thus reduces crowding-out in domestic credit markets. The simulations are performed under wide parameter uncertainty reflecting limited evidence for LICs. Staggered difference-in-differences estimates on completed programs validate the model’s predictions, revealing average treatment effects on growth of 3.4 percentage points but 1.3 months of imports slower reserve accumulation by program end. These results fall at the upper bound of simulations, consistent with severe financing constraints in treated LICs. Budget support shows weak positive effects on fiscal and external adjustments, though not statistically robust, suggesting that it does not weaken consolidation incentives and that sustainable adjustment depends primarily on policy strength and fundamentals rather than financing modalities. Critically, budget support acts as a catalyst contingent on program completion: off-track programs experience particularly adverse growth outcomes. Findings underscore the need for careful consideration of growth-adjustment trade-offs in program design. Short-term growth support must be balanced against building external buffers with country-specific circumstances determining appropriate financing modalities. |
| Keywords: | Budget support; Economic growth; Macroeonomic adjustment; Low-income countries; IMF-supported programs; FX reserves; Crowding-out; Fiscal consolidation; Twin deficit; Current account balance |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/090 |
| By: | Alexandre Cunha; Guilherme Gallego; Marcelo Santos; Bernardus Van Doornik |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the labor market impacts of implementing a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in developing economies with large informal sectors. We study an unexpected reform in the unemployment insurance policy in Brazil that tightened the eligi bility criteria for most (but not all) formal workers. We provide evidence that unemployment insurance (UI) benefits reduce formal employment, and this effect is amplified by informality. We then study the consequences of replacing the existing trans fer and UI policies with a universal basic income using a search-and-matching model where workers and firms jointly sort between formal and informal jobs. We calibrate the general equilibrium model to match key moments concerning unemployment, wage, and wealth distributions, as well as the distribution of transfers. Our model captures important trade-offs of UBI in developing countries. While UBI improves incentives to work formally relative to traditional welfare, its implementation raises concerns about financial sustainability due to limited tax revenue. We show that a universal basic in come of nearly $80 for each household per month, which replaces the existing transfer programs and UI benefits, can lead to welfare gains, particularly for less skilled individuals. We show that the increase in formal sector activity helps offset the higher tax burden and is a key channel through which outcomes for low-education groups improve with the reform. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:646 |
| By: | Febinia, Clarissa Asha (University of Cambridge); Kusuma, Pradiptajati; Luqman, Hirzi; Lewis, Joseph; Limardi, Prisca C.; Apriyana, Isabella; Priliani, Lidwina; , Kristiawan; Sudoyo, Herawati; Malik, Safarina G. |
| Abstract: | Market access is a key factor in structuring food procurement in rural communities. For groups undergoing subsistence transition, market interactions further transform lifestyle, with direct consequences for their diet and health. The Punan of Borneo and the Orang Rimba of Sumatra in Indonesia represent traditionally hunter-gatherer groups with recent transition histories. In this study, we use a cross-sectional comparative design across these communities (7 groups; 297 participants) to examine the effects of lifestyle transitions on diet and health at the intersection of market integration and subsistence shifts. In particular, we profiled dietary composition, procurement strategies, and the consumption of sugar, cigarettes, and medicine. We then employed linear mixed-effects models to evaluate associations between these variables, transition states, demographic factors, and Body Mass Index (BMI). Results indicate that market integration variably impacts subsistence practices; specifically, it circumvents the need for food cultivation in early-transition communities and substitutes for wild game in late-transition contexts. Both market access and subsistence transition drive dietary shifts along with increased BMI. The latter process affects women more severely than men. Sugar consumption is high across all communities (68.6 g/daily on average), while cigarettes are most consumed by men in early-transition communities (93%); both have significant health implications. Considering the communities, lifestyle transition appears mediated by the interaction of forest degradation, local infrastructure, isolation, government/NGO initiatives, and market access. In sum, subsistence transitions in Indonesia likely occur within the context of and are driven by market access, influencing dietary composition with sex-specific impacts on health. |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qyn8w_v1 |