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on Development |
| By: | Himanshu (Jawaharlal Nehru University); Peter Lanjouw (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Philipp Schirmer (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Estimates of poverty in India post-2011/12 are subject to heated public and scholarly debate. The first official, nationally representative consumption survey after 2011/12 to be publicly released pertains to 2022/23. While this survey was also administered and fielded by India’s National Sample Survey Organization, the resulting consumption aggregate cannot be directly compared to that from the 2011/12 round due to far-reaching changes in consumption definition, questionnaire design, sampling, and survey organization. Moreover, since 2011/12 there has been no officially endorsed poverty line that updates the 2011/12 line with respect to inflation and spatial price variation. We confront these problems of non-comparability by employing survey-to-survey imputation methods in which consumption is predicted into the data for 2022/23 based on consumption models calibrated using data from 2011/12. We consider a range of model specifications and employ both the NSSO consumption surveys and Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS). The latter allow us to also track poverty during the years between 2017 and 2022/3. All estimates indicate a significant slowing of poverty decline between 2011/12 and 2022/23 compared to the preceding decade. We report state-level trends alongside aggregate trends. We show that there have been sharp differences across states in their achievement of poverty decline. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, India, Household Surveys |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250069 |
| By: | Ezebuihe, Jessy Amarachi; Parlasca, Martin |
| Abstract: | Many countries experienced record-high food inflation in recent years, which often has negative implications for food insecurity. Off-farm employment is a useful strategy to mitigate food insecurity; however, the role of off-farm employment in buffering against food insecurity triggered by food price shocks remains an important empirical question. This study investigates how food price shocks influence the relationship between off-farm employment and food insecurity in Nigeria, which experienced particularly high inflation in 2024. Based on data from 3, 025 rural households collected in 2018/2019 and 2023/2024, we use panel fixed effects regression models and a control function approach. Our main finding suggests that an increase in food price significantly worsens food insecurity, and that there is a complex relationship between off-farm employment and food insecurity. Furthermore, at high food prices, off-farm employment does not have any significant association with food insecurity. Exploring potential underlying mechanisms, we find that food purchase explains the relationship between off-farm employment and food insecurity at high food prices. In addition, household food purchases and total household income further clarify the complex relationship between off-farm employment and food insecurity. Our analyses suggest the need for external support to ensure food security for rural households amid rising food prices. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397903 |
| By: | Samuel Berlinski (Inter-American Development Bank); Michele Giannola (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and the Institute for Fiscal Studies); Alessandro Toppeta (SOFI, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We study the relative effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and interaction of family-and school-based learning interventions using a randomized controlled trial in Colombia that assigns children to a parental engagement program, a teacher professional development program, both, or a control group. Both interventions are grounded in a child-centered learning approach that emphasizes active engagement and the progression from informal to formal mathematical understanding. Each intervention independently generates sizable and statistically similar gains in early numeracy (0.17‡and 0.20‡). Combining them produces noadditional learning gains, suggesting that the two interventions act as substitutes over thetime horizon and skill domain we study. When benefits accruing to future cohorts are takeninto account, the teacher development program becomes at least as cost-effective as, andpotentially more cost-effective than, the parental engagement intervention. Our results sug-gest that, in this setting, strategically concentrating resources on a single binding constraint– either at home or in school – maximizes the short-run learning gains per dollar spent. |
| Keywords: | numeracy, childhood development, teacher development, parental engagement, randomized control trial, Colombia |
| JEL: | I21 I25 O15 J13 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:781 |
| By: | Samarasinghe, B K D J R; Yuchun, Zhu; Abeynayake, N R; Wanninayake, R W W M P K |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of seasonal climate on rice yield in Sri Lanka and uses district-level panel data covering the period from 1979 to 2024. Yala and Maha seasons are considered separately, and a fixed-effects Spatial Durbin model with a queen contiguity matrix is used to capture both local and spatial spillover effects. In the Yala season, spatial spillovers are predominant: increases in harvested area boost local yields, but expansion into neighbouring districts reduces yields. Significant positive spillovers stem from minimum temperature and rainfall in adjacent districts, while the interaction of rainfall extent shows negative spillovers. Although most individual weather variables have insignificant direct effects, their total effects are positive and significant, reflecting the overall influence of climatic conditions across the spatial system. In the Maha season, rice yield is mainly influenced by local factors: harvested area and rainfall have notable positive direct effects, with minimal spillover effects from neighbouring districts. Night-day humidity differences negatively impact local yields. Cross-seasonal spatial models show that rainfall in the earlier Maha season positively affects Yala yields, and humidity differences in the Yala season negatively affect the next Maha season rice production. Our estimates indicate that climatic variations in one season can affect another season, underscoring the need for seasonal, spatial interdependencies considerations for policy-making and implementing climate adaptation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397923 |
| By: | Krantz, Sebastian; Srinivasan, Sharada; Begazo, Tania |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the complementarities between energy and digital infrastructure in developing countries. Using geospatial data on power transmission lines, power plants, cell towers, and fiber-optic nodes matched to settlement-level wealth indicators across sub-Saharan Africa, and detailed subnational data from Liberia, we estimate the joint effects of proximity to energy and digital infrastructure on local economic development. We test whether the marginal returns to one infrastructure type are increasing in the availability of the other. Our results confirm significant positive complementarity effects. Across sub-Saharan Africa, both digital and power infrastructure proximity are strongly associated with higher settlement wealth, with stable positive interaction coefficients (semi-elasticities) of approximately 1.5 International Wealth Index points across all control specifications, indicating that marginal returns to each infrastructure type are substantially amplified by the presence of the other. These findings are robust across linear fixed-effects regressions and nonparametric Local-Linear Causal Forest (LLCF) estimates; the LLCF further reveals that proximity to the complementary infrastructure type is the single strongest predictor of treatment effect heterogeneity, a direct nonparametric signature of complementarity. The quality of digital connectivity as measured by internet speed is an important mediator. In Liberia, energy consumption per connection also interacts positively with cell tower proximity, confirming complementarity at the intensive margin of energy usage. Our findings support coordinated, spatially bundled investment in both infrastructure types as a development policy priority. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure complementarity, electrification, digital connectivity, economic development, Africa |
| JEL: | O18 O13 L96 H54 O55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:340836 |
| By: | Bekele, Rahel Deribe; Jeuland, Marc; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.; Lee, Eunhye; Zwane, Alix Peterson |
| Abstract: | A growing body of literature suggests that irrigation can enhance women’s empowerment, yet empirical evidence remains mixed and often treats irrigation as a homogeneous intervention. This study examines the impacts of distinct small-scale irrigation technologies on family labor demand, women’s time allocation, and women’s empowerment outcomes in rural Ethiopia. Drawing on primary panel data from 1, 806 households and 6, 774 plots across four regions—supplemented by interviews with spouses to capture intra-household dynamics—we estimate treatment effects using a doubly robust Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment (IPWRA) framework to address potential selection bias. Our results indicate that irrigated plots require substantially more family labor-days than rainfed systems, driven primarily by intensified cultivation rather than irrigation activities per se. Diesel motor pumps emerge as the most labor-intensive technology, followed by gravity-fed systems. Irrigation adoption also increases women’s unpaid workloads, particularly under capital-intensive technologies. Empowerment effects are heterogeneous. While irrigation expands women’s participation in groups, it is associated with reductions in women’s decision-making authority, asset control, and overall empowerment under diesel and gravity systems. Nonetheless, manual irrigation systems are linked to positive effects on women’s decision-making and empowerment outcomes. These findings demonstrate that the gendered impacts of irrigation are highly technology-specific. Irrigation expansion does not necessarily result in women’s empowerment; rather, outcomes depend on how different technologies interact with existing household power structures. Gender-responsive irrigation policies are therefore essential to promote more equitable development outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397871 |
| By: | Daniel Borbely; Mathias Bühler; Joris Mueller; Jonathan Norris |
| Abstract: | Why do some economies recover from armed conflict much better than others? We provide evidence that political accountability determines whether post-conflict societies realize the peace dividend. We study Cambodia, where a nationwide landmine clearance campaign created large local potential surpluses by freeing arable land and reducing victimization by 48%. Whether these surpluses translate into realized development depends on accountability. Using a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, we show that clearance raises the probability of any nightlights by 7.3 percentage points in areas with strong pre-existing demand for checks and balances on political elites. Where such demand is weak, the effect is close to zero. Elite capture explains the divergence. In low-accountability areas, clearance increases land concessions, deforestation, land disputes, and labor displacement. Where accountability is strong, clearance instead raises household consumption by 22%. Post-conflict recovery requires not just the existence of a peace dividend but political constraints on its capture. |
| Keywords: | political accountability, peace dividend |
| JEL: | D7 O4 Q1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12632 |
| By: | Nkhoma, Nomore; Chen, Xiaonan |
| Abstract: | Persistent food insecurity and low agricultural productivity continue to undermine rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa, where smallholder farmers face increasing climatic and market risks. Crop diversification has been promoted as a potential strategy to enhance resilience and improve welfare, yet rigorous causal evidence remains limited. This paper examines whether crop diversification enhances land productivity and household food security in Malawi, using nationally representative data and Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML) to address model specification bias and high-dimensional confounding. Results show that diversification significantly increases land productivity, food consumption, and household dietary diversity, with the strongest impacts observed for dietary quality and food consumption. Mechanism analysis highlights market participation, access to credit, and the use of organic fertilizers as critical pathways through which diversification improves outcomes. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that benefits are most significant among rural, small-scale, and male-headed households. Robustness checks, including propensity score matching and sensitivity analysis, confirm the validity of the findings. Overall, the study demonstrates that crop diversification is not merely a risk-coping strategy but a transformative pathway toward productivity growth and food system resilience. By integrating causal inference with modern machine learning, this study advances empirical understanding and provides policy-relevant insights for promoting sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397882 |
| By: | Somnath Sharma; Mr. Kenichi Ueda |
| Abstract: | We find that public administration digitalisation, carried out state-by-state in India between 2010 and 2015, led to an improvement in micro-enterprise productivities, based on the Unincorporated Non-Agricultural Enterprises Surveys. We categorise the digitalisation of public administration into six groups: tax filing and payments, construction permits, environment and labour regulations, inspections, commercial disputes, and single-window systems. States are ranked according to the subsets of digitalisation carried out by them. Using the difference-in-difference estimations with propensity score matching, we find that the average firm-level productivities have risen in the states carrying out more digitalisation. There, also, dispersions in productivities have become narrower. |
| Keywords: | Productivity growth; productivity dispersion public administration digitalisation; business environments reforms; propensity score matching |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/086 |