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on Development |
| By: | Calafate, Vítor; Costa, Francisco J M (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance); Pessoa, João Paulo |
| Abstract: | Extreme weather events can undermine political representation by preventing vulnerable populations from voting. Using georeferenced polling-station records from eight Brazilian elections (2010–2024) matched to daily river discharge, we exploit within-polling-station variation to show that historically low river discharge on election day increases voter abstention in communities dependent on river transportation. The effects are larger in polling sections with higher illiteracy rates and married voters. These shocks also shift electoral outcomes by reducing the vote share of parties whose bases overlap with affected populations. Our findings show that climate change can systematically weaken the political voice of the populations most exposed to climate damages. |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ypgsf_v1 |
| By: | Mr. Antonio David; Elisee Wendlassida Miningou; Rasmané Ouedraogo; Makoto Tanaka; Alex Vaval Pierre-Charles |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the effects of increases in military expenditures on education and health spending using local projections and different strategies to identify exogenous changes in military spending based on data for 33 sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies over the period 1990-2023. Specifications with shocks identified through military spending surges and through a fiscal reaction function yield mixed results that typically are neither economically nor statistically significant. But instrumental variables estimates that tackle endogeneity concerns indicate that a one-standard-deviation increase in the share of military spending in total government expenditure reduces the shares of education and health spending by about 1 percentage point over the medium-term. The crowding-out effects tend to materialize sooner for health expenditures, likely because they have a larger discretionary component, while education spending is marked by rigidities. In addition, we find that military spending shocks tend to crowd-out health expenditures when access to international aid is limited, while there is no evidence of crowding-out when aid is relatively amply available. In contrast, it appears that overall debt levels and the state of the business cycle are not significant factors in determining the extent of crowding-out effects of military expenditure. |
| Keywords: | Military Spending; Crowding-Out; Social Spending; Sub-Saharan Africa; crowding-out effect; spending shock; IMF working papers; spending response; spending surge; development spending; Defense spending; Health care spending; Education spending; Africa; Global; Southern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/069 |
| By: | Michele Battisti (University of Palermo); Antonio Francesco Gravina (University of Messina); Matteo Lanzafame (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Structural transformation is widely recognized as a key driver of productivity growth and economic development, with industrial policies often playing a crucial role in this process. However, the challenge of premature deindustrialization—where economies experience a decline in manufacturing’s share of employment and gross domestic product at lower levels of income than historically observed in advanced economies—threatens to undermine these gains, particularly in developing economies. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the literature on structural transformation and modern industrial policy, with a particular focus on Asia, a region characterized by economies at considerably different stages of development. Our research encompasses a review of current empirical methodologies for measuring structural transformation and its relationship with growth patterns; an examination of the evolution of industrial policy approaches in Asia; and a synthesis of available evidence on premature deindustrialization, highlighting variations across Asian subregions and policy implications. Additionally, we contribute to the existing literature by presenting new stylized facts on structural transformation and growth patterns in Asia, based on various indicators across economies and sectors. We also examine how institutional and economic factors—including financial sector development, public investment, and labor market regulations—correlate with indicators of structural transformation. Our analysis reveals key insights, including the strong link between manufacturing predominance and labor productivity growth; complex productivity–employment dynamics across sectors; and differentiated impacts of financial development, public investment, and labor market regulations on sectoral employment shifts. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation;economic growth;deindustrialization;industrial policy;Asia |
| JEL: | O11 O14 O25 |
| Date: | 2025–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022439 |
| By: | Moriam Khanam; Mohammad Hajizadeh; Casey Warman |
| Abstract: | This study leverages exogenous variation from a secondary school stipend program for female students in rural Bangladesh to estimate the causal effect of maternal education on early childhood development. Using data from the 2019 Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, we find that the five years of stipend eligibility increase mothers' schooling by about one year. Instrumental variable estimates show that an additional year of maternal education improves early childhood development scores by 0.5 points on a scale of 0-10, with gains in overall developmental readiness (7.5 percentage points) and in the literacy–numeracy (7.7 percentage points) and physical (1.9 percentage points) domains. The results are robust across specifications. We also estimate the effects of maternal education on potential mechanisms, including children's nutrition, home learning environment, parenting practices, and use of early childhood education and care. The findings show that improvements in maternal education increase weight-for-age Z-scores, reduce stunting, improve the probability of having toys from shops, and increase the likelihood of an adult household member playing with the child. The positive effects of maternal education on children's developmental outcomes imply the importance of investment in improving educational attainment, particularly for females in low- and middle-income countries. |
| JEL: | H52 I10 I25 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35075 |
| By: | Drèze, Jean; Somanchi, Anmol (IDinsight) |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines evidence of corruption in India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), the largest public-works programme in the world. We estimate “validation ratios”, defined as the proportion of MGNREGA person-days that are reflected in independent surveys such as the National Sample Surveys and the India Human Development Survey. In the initial years of the programme, estimated validation ratios were as low as 50% or so, but they rose steadily, and by 2011-12, the bulk of MGNREGA employment was validated by two independent national surveys. The more recent Periodic Labour Force Surveys, however, suggest that validation ratios fell again after that, and may be as low as 40% or so today. In other words, MGNREGA seems to be back to square one as far as corruption is concerned. We note that PLFS data on MGNREGA may not be entirely reliable, yet the evidence of resurgent corruption is hard to dismiss. We discuss possible reasons for this setback. Briefly, MGNREGA seems to be trapped in a vicious circle of underfunding, erratic wage payments, worker discouragement and high leakages. |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zvtua_v1 |
| By: | Helanya Fourie; Debra Shepherd |
| Abstract: | Evaluates whether access to fibre broadband improves economic participation in a South African township. The study finds that home fibre is associated with greater labour market engagement and increased opportunities for self-employment. |
| Keywords: | broadband, fibre, labour market, township, South Africa |
| JEL: | J21 L96 O18 |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxs:wpaper:202508 |
| By: | Hensel, Lukas (Peking University); Abebe, Girum (International Finance Corporation (IFC), The World Bank); Gerard, François (University College London); Caria, Stefano (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Job loss is an understudied risk for formal workers in lower-income countries. In these settings, lump-sum severance pay is often the only source of job-loss insurance. We quasi experimentally show that female factory workers in Ethiopia displaced by a tariff hike experience lasting declines in employment and consumption spending, and rising poverty. Experimentally, we find that additional lump-sum support induces early spending and reduces overall and manufacturing employment persistently. Disbursing an equivalent amount in tranches improves consumption smoothing and avoids adverse employment effects. Further, we document a high willingness to pay for additional insurance, alongside heterogeneous preferences over disbursement modality that shape responses to our interventions. These findings imply that increasing job-loss insurance raises welfare, although moving away from the lump-sum default can generate substantial additional gains. |
| Keywords: | job loss, job-loss insurance, trade shock |
| JEL: | O12 J63 J65 I32 O14 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18537 |
| By: | Garcia-Hombrados, Jorge (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Perez Parra, Daniel (Université Gustav Eiffel); Ciacci, Riccardo (Universidad Pontificia de Comillas) |
| Abstract: | Health-harmful norms persist because they fulfill a socially valued function. In many Nigerian communities, female genital cutting (FGC) is practiced because it is believed to discourage sex outside marriage, outweighing its perceived costs for many households. This paper examines the impact of the expansion of fast internet on FGC in Nigeria. Our findings indicate that exposure to fast internet reduces both the prevalence of FGC and support for it. The effect does not appear to be driven by exposure to explicit anti-FGC content online. Instead, we find that fast internet affects FGC by reducing premarital sex stigma, thereby decreasing the perceived benefits of the practice. These findings provide evidence on how health-harmful norms evolve as the value of their function changes, with implications for designing effective interventions. |
| Keywords: | harmful norms, cultural change, female genital cutting |
| JEL: | O32 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18524 |
| By: | Esper, Tomás; Trucco, Daniela |
| Abstract: | La transición digital avanza a gran velocidad y tiene efectos en prácticamente todas las esferas de la sociedad: desde la forma de educar hasta las relaciones humanas y el mundo del trabajo, incluidos tanto los tipos de empleo como las habilidades que se requerirán. La educación y formación técnico-profesional es una herramienta estratégica para articular educación y empleo, impulsar la productividad y la inclusión, y dotar a jóvenes y adultos de competencias para un mundo del trabajo en constante cambio. Aunque la educación y formación técnico-profesional genera beneficios laborales y sociales, persisten problemas como la segmentación, la rigidez y la baja calidad de los aprendizajes. Para que la digitalización ofrezca buenos resultados, son precisos modelos flexibles, actualización docente y cierre de brechas digitales. En este documento se aborda el papel que cumple y los desafíos que enfrenta la educación y formación técnico-profesional en América Latina y España, tanto para responder a las nuevas demandas de los mercados de trabajo en el contexto de la transformación digital como para facilitar la inclusión laboral de las personas jóvenes. |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:89764 |