|
on Development |
| By: | Hirvonen, Kalle; Leight, Jessica; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mesfin, Hiwot Mekonnen; Mulford, Michael; Tesfaye, Haleluya |
| Abstract: | Multifaceted graduation models are a promising strategy to sustainably reduce poverty, yet evidence on their effects on child undernutrition remains limited. This randomized controlled trial evaluated a nutrition-sensitive graduation model combining village economic and savings associations, peer-led behavior change communication, and maternal cash transfers (and for a subset, lump-sum livelihoods transfers) implemented among ultra-poor households in rural Ethiopia. The model without maternal cash transfers improved maternal nutrition knowledge and financial inclusion but did not generate meaningful changes in children’s diets or growth. Supplementing the pro-gram with maternal cash transfers produced at least moderate improvements in child diet quality, early childhood development, household consumption, and assets. The largest improvements in child growth occurred among households receiving both the livelihoods grant and maternal cash transfers. Overall, the results suggest that coupling behavior change communication and livelihoods support with sufficient financial support is critical for achieving meaningful progress in both economic well-being and child nutrition. |
| Keywords: | models; nutrition; children; livelihoods; poverty; child nutrition; Ethiopia; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:179205 |
| By: | Patricia Agyapong |
| Abstract: | In 2007, Kosmos Energy and Tullow Oil found Ghana’s most significant column of high-grade offshore oil and gas. In this paper, I use geocoded household data to examine the socio-economic effects of this oil and gas discovery on the local communities. I conduct two quasi-experimental analysis and find that oil and gas discovery increased real income for households close to the fields, with the benefits being larger for households in districts with a high proportion of skilled workers and limited to non-poor districts. However, there is no apparent effect on employment, total consumption expenditure and poverty. |
| Keywords: | natural resources; oil and gas; local economic impacts; household welfare; spatial difference-in-differences; Ghana |
| JEL: | Q33 O13 R11 D31 C21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2026-02 |
| By: | Bleck, Jaimie; Carrillo, Lucia; Gottlieb, Jessica; Guindo, Sidiki; Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Soumano, Moumouni |
| Abstract: | Recognizing the pivotal role local governance plays in crisis response and the diversity of local conditions even within a single country context, this article examines variation in preferences over humanitarian aid delivery among local leaders in Mali. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork and a survey of 2, 919 local leaders across the country, we investigate leaders’ preferences over two key dimensions of aid governance: local autonomy over targeting and distribution and transparency over aid delivery. Using aid profile vignettes to elicit preferences over these attributes, we find that leaders generally favor approaches that combine both greater local control and greater transparency, viewing transparency as complementary to autonomy rather than constraining. Preferences, however, vary by leaders’ position and by context: outsiders to aid governance demand more transparency, and leaders’ relative trust in local aid committees versus donors predicts preferences for autonomy. Leaders in conflict-affected villages place greater value on autonomy and less on transparency, highlighting how insecurity reshapes aid preferences in fragile settings. |
| Keywords: | governance; humanitarian organizations; aid programmes; conflicts; resilience; policies; local authorities; Mali; Western Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:178892 |
| By: | Rocco Macchiavello; Andreas Menzel; Atonu Rabbani; Christopher Woodruff |
| Abstract: | Women remain disadvantaged in promotion to managerial positions. We conduct a field experiment with 24 large garment factories in Bangladesh to test for inefficient representation of women among line supervisors. We identify the marginal female and male candidates for supervisory positions and randomly assign them to manage production lines. We document four findings: (1) In contrast to widespread negative beliefs about women’s ability as supervisors at baseline, female candidates selected by the factories had similar skills to males; (2) during the trial, females performed worse than males, which we show is related to negative bias against them; (3) after the trial, however, many female candidates were retained as supervisors and, conditional on that, performed similarly to males; and (4) after the end of our intervention, factories permanently increased the share of women among newly appointed supervisors. A conceptual framework of experimentation over discrimination rationalizes all these facts and cautions against the standard logic to test for discrimination: when there is uncertainty about the performance of the discriminated group, equal – or even worse – performance of the marginal candidates of that group is no longer sufficient to rule out inefficient discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Gender Discrimination, Productivity, Export Manufacturing |
| JEL: | J16 J71 M51 M54 O14 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2026-04 |
| By: | Abigail Opokua Asare (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the success of prior aid projects affects the performance of subsequent ones based on a study of World Bank projects in Africa. While existing research has shown that aid effectiveness depends on macroeconomic conditions, institutional quality, and managerial capacity, far less is known about whether project success generates localized improvements that extend beyond its immediate boundaries. Using geocoded data and independent evaluation ratings of World Bank projects, this study finds that local success does not systematically translate into higher performance for subsequent projects. In fact, it can sometimes make it less likely for future projects to achieve top outcomes. I also found evidence of a negative effect in localities with dense exposure to highly satisfactory projects. Regions with a mix of highly rated and moderately rated projects tend to do better in the future than those with only top-rated projects. This means that while lessons have been learned from very successful projects, having too many of these in one place can have negative spillovers. Therefore, close monitoring is needed in regions with high concentrations of top-performing projects to ensure that early successes and lessons learned are managed appropriately, preventing them from undermining later performance. |
| Keywords: | Aid effectiveness, World Bank, project success, localized learning |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:454 |
| By: | Hirvonen, Kalle; Leight, Jessica; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mesfin, Hiwot Mekonnen; Mulford, Michael; Tesfaye, Haleluya |
| Abstract: | Multifaceted graduation models are a promising strategy to sustainably reduce poverty, yet evidence on their effects on child undernutrition remains limited. This randomized controlled trial evaluated a nutrition-sensitive graduation model combining village economic and savings associations, peer-led behavior change communication, and maternal cash transfers (and for a subset, lump-sum livelihoods transfers) implemented among ultra-poor households in rural Ethiopia. The model without maternal cash transfers improved maternal nutrition knowledge and financial inclusion but did not generate meaningful changes in children’s diets or growth. Supplementing the pro-gram with maternal cash transfers produced at least moderate improvements in child diet quality, early childhood development, household consumption, and assets. The largest improvements in child growth occurred among households receiving both the livelihoods grant and maternal cash transfers. Overall, the results suggest that coupling behavior change communication and livelihoods support with sufficient financial support is critical for achieving meaningful progress in both economic well-being and child nutrition. |
| Keywords: | models; nutrition; children; livelihoods; poverty; child nutrition; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:179205 |
| By: | Steinhuebel-Rasheed, Linda; Darwish, Maram; Ecker, Olivier |
| Abstract: | Rural households in many low- and middle-income countries remain highly dependent on agriculture and related value chain activities, making them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As rising temperatures and increasing climate variability reduce agricultural productivity and income stability, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly promoted as a path toward rural development and the transformation of the agrifood systems (AFS). Yet, little is known about whether climate change influences rural households’ decision to start an enterprise to diversify or switch their income sources away from agriculture-related activities in order to adapt to weather risks. We address this research gap by drawing from nationally representative data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2023 and estimating a dynamic duration model to explore how heat stress is linked to households’ likelihood to start a (nonfarm) SME. Our findings offer new evidence for climate-responsive rural policy and SME support strategies in vulnerable regions. |
| Keywords: | small and medium enterprises; development; climate change; climate change adaptation; food systems; agrifood systems; heat stress; dynamic models; modelling; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180550 |
| By: | Chris M. Boyd (Department of Economics, Towson University); Norma Correa (Department of Social Sciences, Pontifical Catholic University of Peru); Angelo Cozzubo (Department of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Peru); Jose Maria Renteria (Department of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Peru) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the unintended impacts of exiting Peru’s Cuna Más public childcare program on child and maternal health. With increased public child- care use in developing countries, understanding the effects of program exit is critical. We use Cuna Más’ strict age-based graduation rule to identify causal impacts, leveraging comprehensive data from the Demographic and Family Health Survey for the period 2015-2019. Our results suggest that mothers prioritize their children’s health over their own upon program exit. While maternal mental health shows a notable decline, children's health remains unaffected. These results have important policy implications, highlighting the need for post-program transitional support to mitigate hidden costs for mothers and enhance the positive outcomes children gain during program participation. |
| Keywords: | Early childhood interventions, Childcare, Child development. |
| JEL: | I12 I21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2026-06 |
| By: | Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A. |
| Abstract: | Excessive insecticide use in smallholder agriculture can threaten human health and the environment. We evaluate the effects of receiving a genetically modified cowpea variety that confers resistance to the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) using a clustered randomized controlled trial with an encouragement design in Nigeria. We find that farmers who received the pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea with complementary inputs significantly reduce insecticide volumes and report fewer days of insecticide-related illness compared to farmers who only received a conventional cowpea variety. Farmers receiving PBR cowpea alone experience smaller, mostly insignificant reductions. To explore heterogeneous responses, we combine ANCOVA (analysis of covariance) interactions with machine learning-based Causal Forest estimates of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs). Results reveal that smaller, less wealthy, and labor-constrained households experience the largest reductions in insecticide use and health improvements, whereas wealthier farmers or those with higher baseline spraying practices experience lower reductions. Women-managed plots exhibit modestly higher responsiveness. Our findings highlight the importance of moving beyond average effects and seed distribution toward targeted, context-specific interventions that account for behavioral and resource constraints in smallholder farming systems. |
| Keywords: | insecticides; farmers; health; genetically modified foods; cowpeas; randomized controlled trials; machine learning; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:179030 |
| By: | Patricia Agyapong |
| Abstract: | Do natural resources affect public trust in political leaders and institutions? In this study, I use a difference-in-differences approach to investigate this question, focusing on Ghana’s discovery of high-grade offshore oil in 2007. I find that individuals living close to the oil fields became less trusting of political leaders and institutions after the discovery. The findings suggest that the oil discovery’s impact on political trust varies depending on pre-existing social and economic condi¬tions such as educational status, employment status and the level of media exposure. Additionally, individuals located near the oil fields reported more negative views about Ghana’s democracy, corruption, government performance, and economic conditions. The results suggest a potential link between increased bribe payments in these locations and declining trust. |
| Keywords: | natural resources; political trust; governance; corruption; public attitudes; difference-in-differences; Ghana; Afrobarometer |
| JEL: | D72 H11 O17 Q33 C21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2026-03 |
| By: | Coulibaly, Yacouba; Coulibaly, Aissata |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of women’s political empowerment on public spending efficiency in developing countries. Using a large panel of 126 developing countries over 1995–2021, the paper constructs public spending efficiency scores based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis, capturing governments’ ability to transform public expenditures into socioeconomic outcomes. The analysis employs a fractional regression model with a bootstrap and instrumental variable approach, complemented by alternative identification strategies. The results consistently show that higher levels of women’s political empowerment significantly improve public spending efficiency. These findings remain robust in alternative estimators, additional controls, subsamples, and alternative measures of women’s empowerment. In addition, a transmission channel analysis further reveals that this positive effect operates primarily through improved governance quality, particularly stronger control of corruption, while fiscal capacity and education spending play complementary but less dominant roles. These findings suggest that policies promoting women’s effective participation in political decision-making—beyond symbolic representation—should be integrated into fiscal governance and anti-corruption strategies to improve public sector performance in developing countries. |
| Date: | 2026–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11336 |
| By: | Ranucci, Immacolata; Abay, Kibrom A.; Tiberti, Luca |
| Abstract: | Subjective well-being rankings are increasingly used to target social protection programs, yet their ability to capture relative welfare and wealth remains debated. This study benchmarks self-, peer-, and elite-based poverty rankings against consumption- and wealth-based measures using Ethiopian household survey data, where about 20 households per village were ranked from neediest to least needy by themselves, peers, and community leaders. We assess concordance between subjective and conventional welfare rankings and explore sources of divergence. Subjective rankings align more with relative wealth than consumption and with total rather than per capita welfare, suggesting they overlook household composition. Elite-based rankings best capture conventional measures, followed by peers’ and self-rankings. Subjective rankings also better reflect relative deprivation among households exposed to covariate shocks. A composite index combining all three improves agreement with standard metrics. Information asymmetries, favoritism, and welfare dynamics partly explain discrepancies, offering insights for enhancing targeting in data-scarce settings. |
| Keywords: | needs; poverty; living standards; social welfare; targeting; social protection; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:178967 |
| By: | Sudeshna Maitra; Sudarsana Kundu |
| Abstract: | How do systemic modes of discrimination—such as a caste system, or racial bias—impact the transmission of intergenerational opportunities in a developing country? What are the mechanisms by which discriminatory norms in labour and marriage markets affect such opportunities? How could we measure such 'opportunities' over time—using nationally representative cross-sectional data—so as to derive their impact on relative poverty and class formation over time? |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Poverty measurement, Caste, Discrimination, Intergenerational Mobility, Simulation methods (Economics), India |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-29 |
| By: | Mahmoud, Mai; Kurdi, Sikandra |
| Abstract: | In-kind food aid programs remain prominent world-wide. Targeting in these programs is complex due to potential distortions in consumption. This paper advances the literature by moving beyond poverty-based targeting to address nutritional objectives. Using data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we apply machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze heterogeneity in impacts across nutritional outcomes, aiming to inform targeting based on observable characteristics. We find that such characteristics significantly predict heterogeneity in treatment effects, though relevant predictors differ by outcome and treatment type. Building on recent literature advocating for balancing of deprivation and expected impact, we show that, in our context, the trade-off between targeting the most impacted versus the most deprived households is limited. Instead, the main challenge is prioritizing among competing nutritional objectives. Our findings indicate that ML methods can inform outcome-specific targeting criteria, though these criteria vary across outcomes and are imperfectly correlated. |
| Keywords: | nutrition; econometric models; food aid; machine learning; targeting; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:179370 |
| By: | Amare, Mulubrhan; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Abay, Kibrom A.; Omamo, Steven Were |
| Abstract: | Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities. |
| Keywords: | public expenditure; agriculture; youth; migration; data; models; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:178300 |
| By: | Paolo Brunori; Diego del Pozo; H. Xavier Jara; Lorena Moreno |
| Abstract: | Integrating administrative data from the civil registry, social security, and national censuses, we provide novel evidence on intergenerational income mobility and equality of opportunity among 514, 890 formal workers in Ecuador. Our results show substantial intergenerational mobility (rank-rank slope 0.22, elasticity 0.17). Formal employment substantially equalizes mobility: gender differences are minimal, and ethnic disparities are compressed, although ethnic minorities face barriers at the bottom. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Equality of opportunity, Labour income, Machine learning |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-30 |
| By: | Enoch Ntsiful (Institute of Economics of Barcelona and Department of Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); François Cohen (Institute of Economics of Barcelona and Department of Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | Little is known about household-level interventions to strengthen household resilience to food insecurity. Rapid electrification could enable refrigeration and transform how food is stored, prepared, and consumed. We provide the first causal evidence on how access to refrigeration affects food insecurity and dietary quality in a low-income country. Our identification exploits appliance breakdowns, comparing households with functioning and broken refrigerators purchased at the same time and similar prices. Losing access increases food insecurity by one third and reduces consumption of animal-sourced foods, lowering intake of vitamin B12. Refrigeration is an overlooked lever to improve diets and reduce micronutrient deficiencies. |
| Keywords: | Refrigerator; Food Expenditure; Food Security; Sustainable Cooling; Ghana. JEL classification: I14; I15; Q49; O13. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202523 |
| By: | Chris M. Boyd (Department of Economics, Towson University); Jose Maria Renteria (Department of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Peru) |
| Abstract: | School entry cutoff policies establish the minimum age required to start school at a given date, determining whether a child is in a classroom with younger or older peers, which can affect their development. Existing research, particularly from high-income countries, shows that younger students face disadvantages in several areas, but little is known about the effects in low- and middle-income countries and for preschool children. We leverage the discontinuity created by government-imposed school entry cutoffs to measure the impact of late enrollment on child nutrition and early childhood development outcomes. Using data from Peru’s Demographic and Health Surveys and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we show that the laxly enforced preschool entry age policies significantly increase the probability of late enrollment, but on average they do not affect child health or early childhood development. Nonetheless, we find that these insignificant effects hide differ- ential impacts for boys and girls, and poor children. |
| Keywords: | School entry age, Preschool education, Early childhood development, Child health. |
| JEL: | I14 I21 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2026-05 |