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on Development |
| By: | Cabrera-Hernández, Francisco (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas); Dustan, Andrew (William and Mary); Osuna-Gomez, Daniel (Banco de México); Padilla-Romo, María (University of Tennessee) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the long-run effects of marginal admission to elite public high schools on students' labor supply in the context of Mexico City's centralized high school admission system. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we compare students whose placement exam scores are just above and just below the elite admission threshold. We find that five and ten years after the admission exam, marginally admitted students are less likely to be employed in the formal private sector, and, if employed, they earn lower wages. However, these employment and wage gaps close after 15 years. Moreover, we find that marginal admission to elite high schools leads to delayed entry into the formal labor market, and, at least in the short run, students in elite high schools seem to sort into lower-productivity firms and industries. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, human capital, education in developing countries, formal employment |
| JEL: | I25 I26 J24 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18369 |
| By: | Kishida, Reina |
| Abstract: | This study examines how women’s labor migration affects their decision-making participation in household savings and how gender norms shape these outcomes. Using Indonesian data, analyses reveal contrasting effects based on community norms. Shift-share instrumental variables analysis shows that 5 years after migration, women from non-restrictive communities gain decision-making power in savings by more than 20%, while those from restrictive communities show limited or negative effects. Staggered difference-in-differences event studies, which reflect the self-selective nature of migration, suggest that women from restrictive communities experience a short-term increase in decision-making 3~7 years after migration timing, while women from non-restrictive regions do not necessarily increase power, possibly due to high initial levels. These findings underscore the role of migration selectivity and gender norms in determining migration’s potential for female empowerment. |
| Date: | 2026–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tkjnx_v1 |
| By: | Robinson, Abbie; Thiede, Brian C. (The Pennsylvania State University) |
| Abstract: | The social costs of climate change are of global interest, as vulnerable populations face new or heighted environmental stressors. Previous research has documented many social consequences of environmental change, but several important outcomes, including child marriage, remain underexplored. We address one of these gaps by examining the relationship between climate shocks and early marriage in Mali, a country where weather extremes are common and rates of child marriage are high. We draw on three decades of marriage records (1986-2016) from the Demographic Health Surveys (n=117, 170 person-years), combined with high-resolution climate data. We measure overall climate impacts on early marriage and evaluate spatial differences across rural and urban areas, northern and southern Mali, and environmental conditions. Across the full sample, cooler than average temperatures reduce the probability of child marriage, while precipitation shocks show no statistically meaningful effect. However, the effects of climate conditions vary spatially. Linear models show that the marginal effect of very high rainfall increases child marriage for girls living in urban areas and northern Mali. In addition, exposure to very cold and very dry conditions predicts marriage before age 18. Overall, our findings point to meaningful but complex relationships between climate variability and child marriage, in which precipitation and temperature exposures can increase or decrease marriage risks, underscoring the need for more research on understudied populations and spaces affected by climate change. |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vz54m_v1 |
| By: | Nora Aboushady (Cairo University); Georges Harb (Lebanese American University); Chahir Zaki (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of aid for trade (AfT) targeted at trade policies on the participation of recipient countries in global value chains (GVCs), and how this impact varies with their prevailing political regimes. In democratic countries, the need for the authorities to account for the interests of various stakeholders (e.g., lobbies, trade unions) can compromise the allocation, use, and effectiveness of AfT. In contrast, less democratic regimes are typically more insulated from political pressures, which may lead to more effective outcomes of aid. At the same time, integration into some complex GVCs requires efficient and democratic institutions, to which these products are sensitive. Employing a sample of 110 countries and data covering 2002-2018, we control for standard determinants of GVC participation, while examining the effect of AfT and the moderating role of the political regime in place. Our estimation addresses the endogeneity of aid through an appropriate instrumentation strategy. Our results suggest that the effect of AfT is mostly positive in autocratic regimes, indicating more effective trade policy reforms. When we account for regional disparities, we find evidence that AfT for trade policy is also impactful in some democratic regimes. This might suggest that the efficacy of AfT is not strictly regime-dependent, but hinges on the government’s commitment to carry out significant reforms leading to greater participation in the global economy. |
| Date: | 2025–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1806 |
| By: | Da Mata, Daniel (Sao Paulo School of Economics (FGV EESP)); Dotta, Mario (Dotta: Sao Paulo School of Business Administration (FGV EAESP)); Severnini, Edson (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Does industrial activity drive deforestation and land degradation, and can limited state capacity be overcome to decouple economic growth from environmental harm? We examine these questions in the context of slaughterhouse plant openings in Brazil from 1994 to 2019. Guided by a simple conceptual framework and using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we show that plant openings increase livestock production while reducing forest cover and degrading pastureland. However, following the introduction of legally enforceable, incentive-compatible agreements between slaughterhouses and federal prosecutors—which penalize purchases of livestock from illegally deforested areas but act as a green certification mechanism—plant openings increase productivity without driving deforestation. Our findings suggest that tying firm performance to environmental goals through market-aligned legal mechanisms can generate economic and environmental gains at low cost to the government. |
| Keywords: | industrial activity, slaughterhouses, deforestation, land degradation, state capacity, green certification |
| JEL: | O13 Q01 Q15 Q56 K32 P18 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18380 |
| By: | Sam Asher (Imperial College London); Kritarth Jha (Development Data Lab); Paul Novosad (Dartmouth College Economics Department and NBER); Anjali Adukia (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and NBER); Brandon Tan (Harvard University Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study residential segregation and access to public services across 1.5 million urban and rural neighborhoods in India. Muslim and Scheduled Caste segregation in India is high by global standards, and only slightly lower than Black-White segregation in the U.S. Within cities, public facilities and infrastructure are systematically less available in Muslim and Scheduled Caste neighborhoods. Nearly all regressive allocation is across neighborhoods within cities—at the most informal and least studied form of government. These inequalities are not visible in the aggregate data typically used for research and policy. |
| JEL: | H4 H41 I24 J15 O15 R12 R13 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-28 |
| By: | Robert Reinhardt (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéo-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan African cities are among the fastest growing in the world but face significant climatic risks. This study investigates how the four most important weather shocks (floods, heat waves, drought, and storms) have shaped the physical expansion of 5, 721 cities in the region between 2000 and 2019. Using high-resolution remote sensing data combined with a panel of weather shocks observed over time, we find that floods, especially, reduce urban growth by 3-9%, most notably in western Africa. The effects are substantially amplified when floods follow heat waves, a common cooccurring combination. Droughts, when considered in the surrounding areas of cities, are associated with a 3% growth in urban areas. However, inverse effects are observed when treatment history is taken into account. Storms appear to accelerate the growth of wealthier towns, although the evidence is limited. Heatwaves alone show no clear effect. Our findings emphasize the need for integrated flood adaptation policies that take common co-occurring hazards equally into account. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of considering both the historical context and the spatial dimension of the shock in empirical work |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Resilience; Urban growth; development |
| JEL: | P25 Q54 O44 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:26004 |
| By: | Timothy Köhler; Benjamin Stanwix; Haroon Bhorat |
| Abstract: | How effective are cash transfers at improving labour market outcomes in settings characterized by severe job scarcity and constraints to self-employment? This paper provides evidence of the labour market effects of South Africa's Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant, a low-value, unconditional cash transfer targeting unemployed working-age adults that was first introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic and extended annually thereafter. |
| Keywords: | Cash transfers, Labour, South Africa, Developing countries, Unemployment |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-19 |
| By: | Lukas Pohn; Günther G. Schulze |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of access to clean water sources on educational outcomes in Indonesia. Using the longitudinal Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) panel dataset, which follows the same individuals from 1993 to 2014, and applying household fixed effects allows us to identify the causal effect of access to clean water at different childhood stages on children’s educational performance. We find that lifetime and early childhood access increases strongly the likelihood of completing junior and senior secondary school; later-gained access has no discernible effect on school performance. Our results underscore the need to provide access to clean water very early on. |
| Keywords: | access to tap water, access to improved water, educational outcomes, Indonesia |
| JEL: | I25 O15 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12475 |
| By: | Fasolin, Guilherme Natan; Valentim, António |
| Abstract: | Does climate change affect who runs for office, and how? As extreme weather events intensify, they create social and economic challenges that likely impact political candidacy. We build on existing research on mass political participation and the political economy of candidate entry and test how extreme weather events affect candidate pools. Using a novel dataset of flooding events and mayoral candidates in Brazil (2000-2020), we employ a difference-in-differences design and find that floods reduce the education level of mayoral candidates. Using data on federal transfers, corruption audits, and surveys, we show the effects on education can be driven by rent-seeking and outside options. By shedding light on the effects of climate change on candidate selection, this study highlights how climate change can paradoxically increase the representation of underrepresented groups in politics. |
| Date: | 2026–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fp93g_v1 |
| By: | Varsha Vaishnav (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Srijit Mishra (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | Women's access to financial resources is not only intrinsically important but also has instrumental relevance for household well-being. To shed light on this issue, this study examines the relationship between women's access to a bank account and household multidimensional poverty, using nationally representative data on rural households from the 5th round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS). To address potential endogeneity of women's bank account ownership, we employ a recursive bivariate probit model with an exclusion restriction. The results indicate a significant negative relationship between women's bank account ownership and household multidimensional poverty. This result is robust across alternative estimation methods, censored and uncensored measures of multidimensional poverty, and a sample restriction. Moreover, the effect is stronger in states and union territories (UTs) with lower levels of patriarchy. An improvement in women's status, facilitated by access to a bank account, is offered as a plausible explanation for the main finding. We make two key contributions relative to existing Indian studies. First, we assess the instrumental relevance of women's access to a financial resource for household multidimensional poverty, rather than focusing on household-level access. Second, we adopt a more comprehensive measure of multidimensional poverty by drawing on the global MPI and enhancing it through a modification of the education dimension. |
| Keywords: | Bank Account, Women's Status, Patriarchy, Multidimensional Poverty, India, Probit Model |
| JEL: | D14 I32 C25 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-022 |
| By: | Halliday, Timothy (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Mazumder, Bhashkar (UC Irvine and NBER); Sinha, Kompal (Macquarie University); Wang, Huixia (Hunan University) |
| Abstract: | We examine health persistence between parents and their adult children in Indonesia using both subjective and objective health measures including biomarkers. Using Principal Components Analysis, we estimate the interegenerational persistence of the combination of these measures to be 0.30, providing some of the first estimates of the transmission of latent health for a middle income country. We also detect a highly significant second principal component suggesting that health has multiple dimensions. We find especially strong associations for biomarkers such as hemoglobin, the pulse rate and hypertension which have typically not been studied in prior intergenerational studies. Transmission is stronger from mothers, and to daughters. We find relatively little variation in intergenerational health transmission by family income or SES. However, we do find strong positive gradients between family SES and the pulse rate and obseity suggesting potential health pitfalls as low and middle income countries further develop. Our findings suggest a potentially important role for policies focused on maternal health in reducing the intergenerational transmission of health. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational persistence, health, biomarkers, Indonesia |
| JEL: | D63 J62 I14 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18365 |
| By: | Alicia H. Dang (Department of Economics, Union College); Joyce P. Jacobsen (Department of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, and Wesleyan University); Sooyoung A. Lee (Department of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges); Ngoc Q. Pham (FPT School of Business & Technology, FPT University) |
| Abstract: | Many concerns surround the continuing globalization of commerce and employment, including the concern that these processes have led to unstable working conditions, including more use of temporary workers. Despite these public fears, the trade literature to date has found little evidence that either exporting or importing leads to hiring a higher share of temporary workers. We analyze whether increased engagement in international trade has led to changes in the use of temporary workers in Vietnam, a country that has recently rapidly integrated into the world economy. Using data from two six-year balanced panels of the Vietnamese Enterprise Survey, covering 2010-2015 and 2017-2022, we utilize propensity score matching techniques to look for the effect of engaging in international trade on labor force composition in the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and services sectors. We find during both time spans that firms newly engaging in international trade make lower use of temporary workers, both relative to non-traders, and overall, even as they maintain their overall employment and raise their wages. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, trade, temporary workers |
| JEL: | D22 F16 J23 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2026-004 |
| By: | Marcela Mello; Jo\~ao Garcia |
| Abstract: | A growing literature documents how religious institutions shape behavior through social influence, but less is known about what happens when religious movements gain political power and use the tools of government to advance their agenda. We use a regression discontinuity design on close mayoral elections in Brazil to show that mayors from parties institutionally tied to Pentecostal denominations increase teenage fertility 3 per 1, 000 higher (a 40% increase). This effect appears for cohorts exposed to middle school during the administration. Consistent with a school-based mechanism, we find that the likelihood that municipal schools offer sexual education programs falls by 12.5 percentage points, with no changes in state schools outside mayoral control. We also find elevated STD rates, and higher middle school dropout rates, while slightly older cohorts show no effects. Results are not explained by changes in contraceptive availability in public clinics, pointing to sexual education as the primary mechanism. We also find no effects from other right-wing parties, indicating the importance of institutional links to Pentecostal parties. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.19388 |