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on Development |
| By: | Oscar Galvez-Soriano; Raymundo Ramirez Peralta |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of the 2019 universalization of Mexico's Social Pension Program (PAM), one of the country's most expansive and politically salient social programs. The reform simultaneously increased the cash transfer and extended eligibility to all individuals aged 65 and over, regardless of income or contributory pension status. Using nationally representative data from the ENIGH and a triple-differences (DDD) identification strategy, we estimate the causal effect of the universalization on poverty and labor market outcomes. Our empirical approach exploits variation across time (pre- and post-reform), age (eligible vs. ineligible), and pension scheme status (non-contributory vs. contributory), allowing us to separate the effects of expanded eligibility from those of increased benefit levels. We find strong increases in take-up rates and no significant change in overall poverty rates, suggesting that many new beneficiaries were not economically vulnerable. However, we document a surprising increase in extreme poverty, concentrated among low-income elderly who responded to the reform by exiting the labor force. This reduction in labor supply, driven by a significant drop in employment among individuals in the bottom income quartile, suggests that the pension acted as a substitute for labor income rather than a supplement. Taken together, the results highlight the trade-offs inherent in universal pension programs: while broader access reduces administrative exclusion, extending transfers to economically secure individuals may dilute redistributive impacts and generate behavioral responses that offset potential welfare gains. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.14774 |
| By: | Bernardo David Romero-Torres; Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena; Andrés García-Suaza; Jaime Bonet-Morón |
| Abstract: | Disadvantaged communities worldwide have been the focus of government-sponsored programs aimed at improving living standards and fostering economic development. Decentralization has emerged as a central strategy in this effort, strengthening accountability, and promoting local development, a trend to which Colombia is no exception. This paper examines the effects of a regionally targeted transfer program that designated additional resources to municipalities allocated along the Magdalena River, the longest country’s waterway. To identify causal impacts, we exploit the 2002 reform that significantly reduced these transfers and apply a difference-in-differences approach using panel data for the period 1994-2019. The findings reveal no effects on social outcomes but a slowdown in economic activity, accompanied by reductions in municipal operating expenditures and investment, while revealing an increase in tax revenues. These results highlight the complex interplay between fiscal decentralization and regional development, raising important questions about the effectiveness of targeted transfers in achieving their intended objectives. **** RESUMEN: Las comunidades desfavorecidas en todo el mundo han sido el foco de programas patrocinados por los gobiernos, orientados a mejorar las condiciones de vida y fomentar el desarrollo económico. La descentralización ha surgido como una estrategia central en este esfuerzo para reforzar la rendición de cuentas y promover el desarrollo local, tendencia de la cual Colombia no es la excepción. Este artículo examina los efectos de un programa de transferencias regionalmente focalizado que asignó recursos adicionales a los municipios ubicados a lo largo del río Magdalena, la principal vía fluvial del país. Para identificar impactos causales, se aprovecha la reforma de 2002 que redujo significativamente dichas transferencias y se aplica un enfoque de diferencias en diferencias utilizando datos de panel para el período 1994-2019. Los hallazgos revelan ausencia de efectos sobre los resultados sociales, pero una desaceleración de la actividad económica, acompañada de reducciones en los gastos operativos e inversión municipal, al tiempo que se observa un incremento en los ingresos tributarios. Estos resultados ponen de relieve la compleja interacción entre descentralización fiscal y desarrollo regional, planteando interrogantes relevantes sobre la efectividad de las transferencias focalizadas para alcanzar sus objetivos previstos. |
| Keywords: | decentralization, difference-in-differences, regional development, descentralización, diferencia en diferencias, desarrollo regional |
| JEL: | H77 C3 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:region:340 |
| By: | Joan Costa-i-Font; Mario Gyori; Belen Saenz-de Miera |
| Abstract: | Extending health insurance to previously uncovered populations can improve access to preventative health care alongside income effects resulting from lower need of out-of-pocket. However, theoretically, in the presence of ex-ante moral hazard, it can also give a disincentive to preventative efforts to lose weight among the already obese population. This paper draws on evidence from the introduction of the Mexican Seguro Popular (SP) in the 2000s to examine its effects on individuals' obesity and body mass index (BMI). We exploit the arbitrary timing of SP’s rollout across Mexican municipalities, namely the exogenous variation resulting from the different speeds in the implementation of SP. We document no significant average effects of SP rollout on BMI and obesity. We document a reduction in the average BMI among those individuals who were already overweight at the time of the introduction of SP and a reduction of 2 pp in the probability of smoking. This evidence suggests no evidence of ex-ante moral hazard in Mexico. |
| Keywords: | obesity, overweight, insurance expansion, Seguro Popular, ex-ante moral hazard, income effects, prevention, health behaviours. |
| JEL: | I18 J5 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12423 |
| By: | Federico M. Accursi; Raul Bajo-Buenestado |
| Abstract: | Mini-grids are emerging as a key solution to electrify access-deficit communities, yet their effectiveness in improving energy access and household welfare remains underexplored. This paper provides novel evidence from Tanzania, where a policy reform doubled the number of mini-grids since 2008. Exploiting spatial and temporal variation created by the distance to the households in proximity to mini-grids and the timing of their deployment, and using data from two different nationally representative surveys, we find that mini-grids increase local electrification rates by 10-23 percentage points — a result corroborated by a surge in nighttime light intensity near newly deployed projects. We also show that mini-grids reduce reliance on polluting fuel-based lighting and drive the uptake of electric-powered devices. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest the surplus generated by renewable-based mini-grids nearly offsets their costs. |
| Keywords: | energy access, mini-grids, nighttime light, energy poverty, Sub-Saharan Africa, sustainable development |
| JEL: | L94 O13 Q48 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12453 |
| By: | Monica Mogollon; Juan Mogollon; Catalina Villamil |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of emergency food assistance on human mobility patterns between March and August of 2020. We study a large public-private initiative in Colombia, created to deliver food aid to one million households at risk of falling into poverty and previously not included in other assistance programmes. The impact is estimated using the quasi-exogenous roll out of the food distribution within municipalities. The high-frequency data set links detailed daily deliveries with georeferenced food recipients' location and mobility indicators measuring out-of-home events. |
| Keywords: | Food, COVID-19, Lockdown, Mobility |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-18 |
| By: | Johan Fourie (LEAP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Kelsey Lemon; Jan-Hendrik Pretorius |
| Abstract: | We study how selective sanitation investments reshaped racial health inequality in one twentieth-century South African town. Combining a complete transcription of geo-linked death notices and intercensal birth imputation, we construct annual race- and cause-infant mortality rates and track the rollout of a municipal storm-water drainage scheme. Importantly, drainage was targeted and had distributional consequences: large, persistent reductions in white infant mortality from sanitation-sensitive disease on treated streets, but little improvement (and sometimes worsening outcomes) for coloured infants. Triple-difference estimates, event-study evidence, and cause-of-death patterns thus reveal a ‘reversal-of-fortunes’ effect: turning high-risk streets safe and concentrating preventable mortality among coloured households. |
| Keywords: | infant mortality, health inequality, sanitation, South Africa |
| JEL: | I14 I18 N37 H51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers391 |
| By: | Sam Asher; Kritarth Jha; Paul Novosad; Anjali Adukia; Brandon Tan |
| Abstract: | We study residential segregation and access to public services across 1.5 million urban and rural neighborhoods in India. Muslim and Scheduled Caste segregation in India is high by global standards, and only slightly lower than Black-White segregation in the U.S. Within cities, public facilities and infrastructure are systematically less available in Muslim and Scheduled Caste neighborhoods. Nearly all regressive allocation is across neighborhoods within cities at the most informal and least studied form of government. These inequalities are not visible in the aggregate data typically used for research and policy. |
| Keywords: | segregation, neighborhoods, place-based policies, marginalized groups, infrastructure, access to public services, electricity, schools, sanitation, India, Muslims, Scheduled Castes |
| JEL: | H4 H41 I24 J15 O15 R12 R13 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12466 |
| By: | Luis Eduardo Castellanos-Rodríguez (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Can emergency unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) protect educational investments and human capital accumulation during economic crises? While UCTs mitigate immediate economic hardship, evidence on their capacity to safeguard educational outcomes during emergencies remains limited. This study investigates Brazil’s Auxílio Emergencial program, one of the developing world’s largest emergency cash transfer programs, and its impact on educational attendance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using household survey microdata and a regression discontinuity design that exploits exogenous variation in program eligibility, I estimate causal effects on educational attendance among demographic groups within vulnerable single-mother households. Eligibility increased attendance by 16.0 percentage points for young men aged 18–24, with effects driven primarily by those who had dropped out and re-engaged with secondary virtual education. The effects are concentrated among men and are not statistically significant for women. The mechanism operates by reducing economic pressure on households, enabling continued educational participation among younger members while preventing primary earners from engaging in low-quality or informal employment. |
| Keywords: | Unconditional cash transfers, Education, Regression discontinuity design, Brazil, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | H52 H75 I20 I38 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:022251 |
| By: | Francisco Ferreira (London School of Economics); Paolo Brunori (London School of Economics); Guido Neidhofer (ZEW Mannheim); Pedro Salas-Rojo (CUNEF); Louis Sirugue (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that relative measures of intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity are closely related ways of quantifying the inheritability of inequality. We review both literatures for Latin America, looking both at income and educational persistence. We document very high levels of intergenerational persistence and inequality of opportunity for education, with inherited characteristics predicting 29% to 52% of the current-generation variance in years of schooling. Inherited circumstances are somewhat less predictive of educational achievement, measured through standardized test scores, accounting for 20% to 30% of their variance. Our estimates of inequality of opportunity for income acquisition suggest that between 46% to 66% of contemporary income Gini coefficients can be predicted by a relatively narrow set of inherited circumstances, making Latin America a region of high inequality inheritability by international standards. Our review also finds a very wide range of intergenerational income elasticity estimates, with substantial uncertainty driven by data challenges and methodological differences. |
| Keywords: | Inherited inequality, intergenerational mobility, inequality of opportunity, Latin America |
| JEL: | D31 I39 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2026-689 |
| By: | Laura V. Clavijo Torres (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Transportation infrastructure in remote areas can transform rural economies, but its effects on credit markets and agricultural production remain poorly understood. By analyzing geolocated data on Colombia’s national road expansion and exploiting its staggered implementation, I show that road construction reduces governmentsupported productive credit by 13 percent while leaving total loan balance unchanged, indicating credit substitution from government programs toward private commercial lending rather than reduced credit access. Roads trigger substantial agricultural transformation: coca cultivation declines by 51 percent while cash crops expand by 13 percent, demonstrating that improved connectivity reshapes both production choices and financing needs. The effects are strongest in poorer, more rural, and initially isolated municipalities, with productive credit declining 70 percent more in below-median GDP areas, suggesting that infrastructure’s transformative impacts depend critically on baseline connectivity constraints. I also observe heterogeneous responses across agricultural suitability, with credit substitution concentrated in areas where roads make legal crops newly viable relative to coca. Finally, I find no systematic role for prior conflict exposure, indicating that infrastructure reshapes economic behavior through market integration rather than conflict legacies. |
| Keywords: | Roads, Rural credit, Coca cultivation, Crop substitution |
| JEL: | R42 O18 G21 K42 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:022252 |