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on Development |
| By: | Gnangnon, Sena Kimm |
| Abstract: | The present analysis has investigated empirically the effect of agricultural transformation on the working poverty rate in developing countries. It argues that agricultural transformation affects the working poverty rate by inducing employment shifts (within the agricultural sector) from the primary agriculture to the agrifood system, and from the agricultural sector to other sectors in the economy. The empirical analysis utilizes a panel dataset of 100 developing countries of which 35 poorest countries, i.e., Least developed countries (LDCs), over the annual period from 2000 to 2021. It uses the error component two-stage least squares to address endogeneity concerns, and accounts for the larger between-country variation of variables than their within-country variations. The findings lend support for the hypothesis that agricultural transformation induces the employment shifts highlighted above, but to a lower extent in LDCs than in NonLDCs among developing countries. However, while agricultural transformation has resulted in a lower working poverty rate in NonLDCs, it has raised the working poverty rate in LDCs. This can suggest that for LDCs, the agricultural sector has not been sufficiently transformed to trigger the requisite employment shifts that would effectively reduce the working poverty rate. Similar findings are obtained for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries (41 SSA countries) - the bulk of which being LDCs - versus NonSSA countries in the full sample. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural transformation, Working poverty, Developing countries, Least developed countries, Sub-Saharan African countries |
| JEL: | E24 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:336730 |
| By: | Wedemeyer, Laura; Kaplan, Lennart; Kluve, Jochen; Reiners, Lennart |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the empirical link between German bilateral development finance and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) at the sub-national (ADM2) level. We construct a unique dataset by merging geo-referenced development aid projects - implemented by KfW Development Bank - over more than two decades with FDI project data. The analysis investigates four research hypotheses, and finds that: (i) development finance activity is positively and significantly associated with FDI inflows; (ii) the positive link is similarly pronounced in both hard and soft sectors; as well as (iii) irrespective of recipient countries' income level; and (iv) the positive aid-FDI association appears to be driven by projects with stronger implementation, as measured by higher ex-post evaluation ratings. For these higher-rated projects, KfW aid is significantly more likely to be associated with FDI from Germany and the EU. Our findings suggest that FDI may be an important channel through which development aid simultaneously benefits both recipient - by providing capital and technology - and donor countries, by signaling investment opportunities for its enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Development aid, development finance, FDI |
| JEL: | F23 F35 O12 O18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:336810 |
| By: | Bai Yu; Guojun He; Pak Hung Lam; Yanjun Li |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of locust swarm invasions on human capital accumulation using data from Burkina Faso, emphasizing short-, medium-, and long-term effects. Using geo-coded data, we find that locust outbreaks reduce school enrollment of the affected cohorts in the short term, decrease their cognitive performance and educational attainment in the medium term, and lower adult incomes in the long run. Crop losses, rising food prices, and use of child labor during the locust crisis drive these effects. Early locust control proves to be a highly cost-effective way to promote education, costing just $7.63 per additional year of schooling. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:80 |
| By: | Aysun Hiziroglu Aygun (Istanbul Technical University) |
| Abstract: | We examine how a modest unconditional cash transfer policy affects child labor, schooling and health during periods of high inflation by studying Turkey's Family Support Program, launched in 2022. Using a regression discontinuity design based on the program's per capita income eligibility threshold, we analyze the program's short-term effects within six months of implementation. Despite the program's relatively modest transfer amounts—approximately one-third of the monthly minimum wage—we find significant reductions in children's participation in family businesses and agricultural work. Investigating the heterogeneous effects, we find that the program reduces non-market work for boys and domestic work for girls. Notably, these labor reductions occurred without corresponding increases in school enrollment or time spent on educational activities, with the exception of a suggestive rise in boys’ school hours. We also find improvements in children’s emotional well-being and daily protein consumption primarily for boys, and a reduction in unhealthy dietary habits among girls. Our findings suggest that even a modest transfer policy can enhance child welfare through multiple channels. |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1811 |
| By: | Darwin Cortés-Cortés (Universidad del Rosario); Ivonne Lara (Universidad del Rosario; Banco Mundial); Darío Maldonado (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how a major reduction in violence, Colombia’s 2014 ceasefire with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-EP), shaped the way young people allocate their time. Using a difference-in-differences strategy and nationally representative data from the Encuesta Nacional del Uso de Tiempo (ENUT), linked to municipal-level conflict exposure, we study changes in daily activities among youth aged 14 to 28. Results show that the cessation of violence led to a substantial increase in time devoted to caregiving, and a notable rise in labor market participation, particularly among young women, accompanied by reductions in time spent sleeping. The ceasefire also contributed to a more equitable distribution of household responsibilities, with men increasing their participation in domestic work. Notably, these effects are concentrated among individuals from more advantaged households, suggesting that socioeconomic disparities may moderate the benefits of peace efforts. We explore potential mechanisms, including forced migration, household composition, and local economic activity. The results are time-sensitive and remain robust even when accounting for selective migration patterns. The findings highlight time use as a key behavioral margin through which peace agreements can affect economic and social outcomes, and offer actionable insights for postconflict policy design. |
| Keywords: | Time Use; Youth; Gender Roles; Caregiving; Labor Market; Armed Conflict |
| JEL: | D74 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:022161 |
| By: | Rabah Arezki (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, Harvard Kennedy School); Hieu Nguyen (WUSTL - Washington University in Saint Louis) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between (internal) armed conflict and sustainable development. Using annual panel data on 192 countries from 2000 to 2024, we employ a variety of econometric techniques to trace the impulse responses between conflict fatalities and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) performance in both directions. Results reveal a striking asymmetry: conflict shocks produce long-lasting adverse effects on SDG performance, while SDG performance shocks exert only transient effects on conflict intensity. This asymmetry persists across external and major conflict episodes, and is robust to alternative identification strategies. Our findings indicate that sustainable development is fundamentally contingent on prior achievement of peace. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetry, Persistence, Sustainability, Development, Conflict |
| Date: | 2026–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-05492339 |
| By: | Arlette Simo Fotso (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Jacob Martin (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Florian Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques) |
| Abstract: | The World Health Organization estimates that that the highest prevalence of disability among individuals below age 60 is observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, knowledge of disability remains limited in the region, which is partly due to the lack of robust and comparable measurements of disability. In Sub-Saharan Africa, sub-national and comparable estimates of disability prevalence are limited. This paper aims to use comparable sources of data to estimate and construct an atlas of sub-regional disability prevalence. We take data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) which use the Washington Group on Disability Statistics (WG) short set of questions, which is designed to be a 'culturally neutral' disability screening tool. The questionnaire assesses limitations across six functional domains (seeing, hearing, walking, cognition, communication and self-care). We have data for a total of 26 Sub-Saharan African countries which were collected between 2016 and 2022. We aim to estimate the age-specific prevalence of functional limitation in the population aged 18-49 at the second subnational administrative division level in each country. Given the instability of direct estimates at the subnational level, we use recently developed small area estimation techniques that borrow strength over age and space. From our estimates we compute age standardized prevalences of limitation to facilitate comparison between regions and countries. Preliminary results show large heterogeneity between and within countries, but the amount of within-country differences varies from country to country. Overall, we found 682 subnational entities with age standardized disability prevalence significantly above 2.5%, 233 above 5%, and 31 above 10%. Areas with prevalence significantly above 10% are mainly located along the Ghana-Togo border, the CAR-DRC border, the south of DRC, and parts of Madagascar, underscoring the need for both national and global policymakers to focus efforts on these zones. |
| Date: | 2025–07–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05458425 |
| By: | Alejandro Ome; Laura Giles Alvarez; Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena; Cristhian Larrahondo |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impact of natural resource funds (NRF) on municipal fiscal results in Colombia, using an instrumental variable approach. It specifically analyzed the case of the Oil Savings and Stabilization Fund (FAEP). The results suggest that a 1 percent increase in royalty revenue caused a 0.2 percent increase in gross capital formation (GCF) expenses and that this effect was cancelled out by FAEP participation. We also find that neither resource revenue windfalls nor participation in the FAEP had any impact on operating expenses nor on tax revenues, and that resource revenues have had impact on capital expenses other than GCF, but FAEP participation did not. Although we find that FAEP was indeed effective in reining in GFC expenses, the results suggest that other factors, such as subnational fiscal rules, could have had a strong effect on operating and other investment spending. Countries should thus consider a range of instruments to promote fiscal discipline and smooth out spending, including regulation and NRFs, in the face of natural resource revenue windfalls. **** RESUMEN: Este estudio analiza el impacto de los fondos de recursos naturales (FRN) en los resultados fiscales municipales en Colombia utilizando un enfoque de variables instrumentales. En particular, se examinó el caso del Fondo de Ahorro y Estabilización Petrolera (FAEP) de Colombia. Los resultados sugieren que un aumento del 1 por ciento en los ingresos por regalías provocó un incremento del 0, 2 por ciento en los gastos de formación bruta de capital (FBK), y que este efecto fue contrarrestado por la participación en el FAEP. También se encontró que ni los aumentos inesperados en los ingresos por recursos ni la participación en el FAEP tuvieron impacto en los gastos de funcionamiento ni en los ingresos tributarios. Aunque los ingresos por recursos sí afectaron los gastos de capital distintos a la FBK, la participación en el FAEP no lo hizo. Si bien se concluye que el FAEP fue efectivo para contener los gastos en FBK, los resultados sugieren que otros factores —como las reglas fiscales subnacionales— podrían haber tenido un efecto significativo en el gasto operativo y en otras inversiones. Por lo tanto, los países deberían considerar una variedad de instrumentos para fomentar la disciplina fiscal y estabilizar el gasto ante aumentos inesperados en los ingresos provenientes de recursos naturales, incluyendo la regulación y los FRN. |
| Keywords: | natural resource funds, local public finances, instrumental variables, fondos de recursos naturales, finanzas públicas locales, variables instrumentales |
| JEL: | Q32 H72 C36 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:region:339 |
| By: | Andrés García-Suaza (Universidad del Rosario); Pamela Caiza-Guamán (Universidad del Rosario); Alexander Sarango-Iturralde (Université Paris I); Bernardo Romero-Torres (Universidad del Rosario); Catalina Buitrago (Universidad del Rosario) |
| Abstract: | The green transition represents one of the most significant transformational forces in the labor market in the coming years. This paper analyzes the incidence of green jobs in four Latin American countries using information from job vacancy data. The results reveal a low incidence of demand for jobs with green potential or for new and emerging occupations related to the green transition. Such occupations are characterized by requiring high levels of education and offer a significant wage premium. These results highlight the main challenge of the green transition, which lies in the need to implement training processes, while revealing opportunities for the creation of high-quality jobs in the region. |
| Keywords: | Labor demand; Green jobs; Green transition; Climate change; Skills |
| JEL: | J24 J62 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:022158 |
| By: | Koopmans, Ruud; Meierrieks, Daniel; Tuki, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This article studies the role of environmental and religious factors in the occurrence of pastoralist conflict in Nigeria using panel data at the 0.5 x 0.5ê grid cell level between 1997 and 2020. The empirical analysis provides robust evidence that the occurrence of droughts does not raise the likelihood of pastoralist conflict in those parts of the country where Muslim herders face a largely Muslim sedentary population. However, when there is a potential for interreligious tensions (i.e., in predominantly Christian parts of Nigeria), droughts significantly fuel pastoralist violence. That is, the adverse interaction between droughts and religious cleavages creates particularly potent conditions for the emergence of pastoralist conflict. This interpretation is supported by original survey data collected in 2021, which shows that Christians and Muslims disagree about the participants and causes of pastoralist conflict in Nigeria, again emphasizing the role of religious divides in this conflict. |
| Abstract: | Anhand von Paneldaten auf einem 0, 5ê × 0, 5ê-Raster für die Jahre 1997-2020 untersucht dieser Artikel, welchen Einfluss Umweltfaktoren und Religion auf Konflikte um Weideland in Nigeria haben. Die empirische Analyse liefert robuste Befunde: In Landesteilen, in denen muslimische Viehhirten auf eine überwiegend muslimische sesshafte Bevölkerung treffen, erhöhen Dürren nicht die Wahrscheinlichkeit solcher Konflikte. In Regionen mit potenziellen interreligiösen Spannungen, das heißt in vorwiegend christlichen Teilen Nigerias, begünstigen Dürren hingegen signifikant die Gewalt. Mit anderen Worten schafft die ungünstige Wechselwirkung zwischen Dürren und religiöser Spaltung besonders explosive Bedingungen für das Entstehen von Konflikten um Weideland. Diese Deutung wird durch selbst erhobene Umfragedaten aus dem Jahr 2021 gestützt, die zeigen, dass Christen und Muslime unterschiedliche Auffassungen darüber haben, wer an solchen Konflikten beteiligt ist und welche Ursachen ihnen zugrunde liegen, was die Rolle religiöser Gegensätze in diesem Konflikt erneut betont. |
| Keywords: | Konflikte um Weideland, Dürren, religiöse Gewalt, Nigeria, Fulani, Umfrageergebnisse, pastoralist conflict, droughts, religious violence, Nigeria, Fulani, survey evidence |
| JEL: | D74 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmit:336794 |
| By: | Titelman, Noam; Prieto, Joaquin |
| Abstract: | What is the effect of experiencing good or bad macroeconomic environments on political and economic attitudes? Despite decades of research, this central question in political economy remains unsettled. We advance this debate in two ways: by examining the effects of both positive and negative macroeconomic environments simultaneously, and by focusing on their cumulative impact over individuals’ lifetimes. We address this question by examining how lifetime exposure to macroeconomic positive and negative periods shapes political and economic attitudes in Latin America. We combine annual GDP per capita data from the Maddison Project (1896–2022) with nearly 700, 000 individual responses from Latinobarómetro and LAPOP (1995–2021) to construct life-course measures of positive and negative periods for respondents in 18 countries. Our identification strategy compares cohorts within country–year using models with country, survey-year, age, cohort, and survey fixed effects. Repeated positive macroeconomic periods systematically shift individuals toward the right on a left–right scale and improve subjective economic evaluations. In contrast, repeated negative periods do not produce a consistent leftward shift; instead, they increase economic insecurity, dissatisfaction with democratic performance, and anti-elite sentiment. Support for democracy as a principle remains stable. We confirm the generalizability of our main findings by replicating our analyses in 104 countries using the Integrated Values Survey (1980-2022). |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:29ytf_v1 |
| By: | Kharazi, Aicha (University of Warwick); Lu, Saite (University of Cambridge); Mustafa, Ghulam (University of Derby & London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | Public support for raising minimum wages as a policy response to economic inequality is increasing; however, empirical evidence from highly informal and weakly regulated labour markets remains limited. This study estimates the impact of minimum wage increases on earnings and hours worked in Pakistan, drawing on 21 waves of nationally representative Labour Force Survey data between 1992 and 2021. By leveraging national time variation in statutory minimum wages and pre-policy district exposure, proxied by the proportion of workers earning below the minimum wage prior to policy changes, we find that increases in the minimum wage are associated with statistically significant but modest gains in real hourly earnings, with stronger wage pass-through observed in local labour markets with higher initial exposure. The benefits are disproportionately greater for male workers; however, the policy has achieved only limited and uneven progress in reducing gender pay disparities. On the intensive margin, minimum wage increases are associated with reductions in hours worked, particularly among women. This pattern is consistent with adjustment through hours in segments characterised by part-time work and weaker compliance. Overall, the findings indicate that minimum wage policy can increase earnings in low-wage areas under conditions of partial compliance, yet has limited capacity to address persistent structural gender inequality in highly informal contexts. These results underscore the need for stronger enforcement and complementary, gender-sensitive labour market interventions |
| Keywords: | minimum wage ; hourly earnings ; hours worked JEL codes: J22 ; J31 ; J38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1597 |
| By: | Carla Coccia; Miriam Prater; Jenny Mosimann |
| Abstract: | When classroom instruction is locked to the curriculum and home support is limited, students with accumulated learning deficits face near-zero marginal returns to instruction. We study two remedial literacy interventions in rural El Salvador using an RCT that randomizes 606 households (with at least one low-performing student) from 26 schools to: (i) five months of twice-weekly, 90-minute small-group pull-out sessions during school hours, or (ii) the same sessions plus a low-cost parental engagement component (WhatsApp messages and three focus meetings), versus control. We estimate small treatment–control differences in literacy endline scores, but these are masked by sizable within-school spillovers: the average control student (22.7% treated peers) gains 0.10–0.14 SD, while the average treated student gains 0.20–0.25 SD relative to low-exposure controls. The parent add-on yields no additional gains and does not increase measured parental engagement. Evidence suggests scope for further gains through higher realized treatment exposure, improved targeting, and more intensive parent-facing designs that translate information into sustained at-home practice. |
| Keywords: | remedial education, randomized controlled trial, El Salvador, development economics |
| JEL: | C93 I21 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bss:wpaper:52 |
| By: | Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Salas Rojo, Pedro |
| Abstract: | Researchers have sought to quantify the extent of inequality that is inherited from previous generations in multiple ways, including a large body of work on intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity. Many of the most frequently used approaches to measuring mobility or inequality of opportunity fit within a general framework which involves, as a first step, an estimation of the extent to which inherited personal characteristics can predict current incomes. We suggest a new method, within that broad framework, which is sensitive to differences across the entire conditional distributions of relevant population subgroups, rather than just in their means – a feature that makes it particularly well-suited to measuring ex-post inequality of opportunity. Sensitivity to differences in higher moments of the conditional distributions allow for a more comprehensive assessment of inherited inequality. We apply this approach to household income distributions in China, India, South Africa, and the United States, to illustrate how the method performs in different settings. We find that inherited inequality accounts for large shares of total inequality, from 36% in the United States to 59% in China, 62% in India, and 81% in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | inherited inequality; opportunity; mobility; transformation trees; China; India; South Africa; United States |
| JEL: | D31 D63 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137083 |
| By: | Akter, Sonia |
| Abstract: | Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of climatic hazards, disrupting agricultural systems and reshaping rural livelihoods worldwide. In climatevulnerable countries like Cambodia, these disruptions are also transforming gender roles within agriculture. While the feminisation of agriculture—where women assume greater agricultural responsibilities as men transition to non-farm work—has been widely observed, less is known about whether this trend also extends to women’s involvement in farm-level decision-making. This case study examines the relationship between climate change adaptation, climatic hazards, and the multidimensional feminisation of agriculture in Cambodia. Using nationally representative, sex-disaggregated data from the Cambodia Agriculture Survey (2019–2021), covering over 40, 000 households, we analyse shifts in women’s roles as unpaid family labourers, hired workers, and decision-makers in agricultural production. Our findings show a significant increase in women’s participation in all aspects of agriculture during the study period. Feminisation was more pronounced in female-headed households, those heavily dependent on agriculture for income, and those exposed to climatic shocks—especially droughts and floods. We find that crop and livelihood diversification, key household adaptation strategies, are strongly associated with increased female labour and decision-making roles. By contrast, we find little evidence that male outmigration or non-climatic hazards (e.g., pests & diseases) are major drivers of feminisation in this context. These results highlight the need for gender-responsive agricultural and climate adaptation policies. In particular, agricultural extension programs should actively support women’s access to climate-smart technologies, training, and resources—especially in areas most affected by climate change—so that women’s growing role in agriculture translates into greater resilience rather than deepening the burdens of climate stress. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp25:391432 |
| By: | Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes (Universidad del Rosario); Mayra Sáenz-Amaguaya (Universidad del Rosario); Luis Fernando Gómez (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana); Mercedes Mora Plazas (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana); Norman Maldonado (Banco Mundial); Juan Nicolás Rico (Universidad del Rosario); Lindsey Smith Taillie (University of North Carolina) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short-term labor market effects of Colombia’s 2022–2024 health-related reforms, which combined (i) an excise tax on ultraprocessed sugary drinks and ultra-processed foods, and (ii) an octagonal front-of-package warning label on processed and ultra-processed food and beverage products high in sugar, sodium, saturated fat, or calories. Using nationally representative labor force data and three complementary identification strategies—interrupted time series, difference-in-differences, and synthetic control—we evaluate effects on employment, income, hours worked, and informality in directly and indirectly affected sectors. Results show no statistically significant short-run changes in employment, income, or informality. The only robust adjustment occurs along the intensive margin: workers in the non-alcoholic beverage sector increased their weekly hours by roughly one hour on average. This effect is concentrated among white-collar, rural, and female workers, suggesting that firms adapted to the new regulations by adjusting workloads rather than employment levels. Overall, the evidence indicates that Colombia’s fiscal and labeling policies did not disrupt labor markets during their initial implementation. The results align with findings from Mexico, Chile, and Peru, supporting the view that well-designed “high-in” food policies can advance public health objectives without undermining employment or income stability. These findings contribute to the growing evidence base on the economic effects of food-related fiscal and informational measures in middle-income countries, offering reassurance to policymakers balancing health and labor market goals. |
| Keywords: | Employment; Labor income; Colombia; Food policy; Labeling; Taxes; Processed foods |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:022160 |
| By: | Carla Coccia; Martina Jakob; Konstantin Büchel; Ben Jann |
| Abstract: | Despite billions spent annually on teacher training, rigorous evidence on standalone in-service programs remains scarce, as most evaluated programs bundle training with curriculum or material reforms. We address this gap through a large-scale randomized controlled trial with 338 schools and over 6, 000 students in El Salvador. Teachers are randomly assigned to either a control group or one of three training programs focusing on (i) content knowledge, (ii) pedagogical knowledge, or (iii) a combination of both inputs. We find lasting effects on teacher content and pedagogical knowledge of up to 0.3σ and 0.5σ respectively one year after program end. Yet, this only changes teachers' classroom practices in the short-run and does not translate into significant student learnings. The data most closely aligns with a setting where teachers face a dual challenge: introducing new ideas in a rigid environment while navigating the significant learning gaps present among students in later grades. |
| Keywords: | teacher training, teacher content knowledge, pedagogical knowledge, randomized controlled trial, El Salvador, development economics |
| JEL: | C93 I21 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bss:wpaper:51 |
| By: | Juan Muñoz-Morales (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]) |
| Abstract: | This study provides evidence that natural disasters negatively affect student outcomes, potentially explaining the lower academic achievement of students in rural areas compared with their urban counterparts in developing countries. Using data from the Colombian school census, I estimate a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits variation from an unusual rainfall shock affecting more than 2 million people in both urban and rural Colombia. The results show that these disruptions increase school dropout rates and reduce learning outcomes for at least a decade. The effects are concentrated in rural schools, while students in urban schools remain unaffected. I explore several mechanisms and rule out the possibility that the effects are driven by selective migration or a loss of educational resources. Instead, I find evidence that the rainfall shock exacerbated poverty, pushing poorer rural children into unemployment and longer work hours. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, human capital, education, urban-rural gap, Colombia |
| Date: | 2025–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05495376 |
| By: | Ferreira, Thomas; Hoyle, Tristan; Horn, Aidan J.; Steenkamp, Daan |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the use of night lights to track economic activity in South Africa at a level of spatial granularity and periodic frequency not obtainable by traditional indicators. It shows mismatches between urban population density, economic activity and infrastructure. We show that satellite data suggest very low growth in night light intensity across South Africa over the last decade and a decoupling from economic and population growth. We show that satellite data sheds light on the implications of the collapse of state service delivery and South Africa's decline in GDP per capita over the last decade. The most likely explanation of the slow growth in night light intensity in South Africa is municipal infrastructural degradation, observed in the breakdown of a large proportion of streetlights. Other possibilities include a shift to solar and off‐grid electricity supply, the decline in industrial and manufacturing production in South Africa, or improvements in energy efficiency. However, the shift to more efficient lighting technologies does not explain why night lights has grown so much more in fast growing developing countries. These results reveal a lack of densification in urban areas that contribute to higher transportation costs and reservation wages, discriminating against job creation and efficient service provision. Our results raise questions about the depth of South Africa's structural slowdown, the ability of traditional indicators to fully capture shifts in spatial economic vibrancy, and the impacts of urban planning policies on economic efficiency and development. |
| Keywords: | night lights, satellite data, regional activity |
| JEL: | C55 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127824 |