|
on Development |
| By: | De Hoop, Jacobus Joost; Tribin Uribe, Ana Maria; Velásquez, Andrea |
| Abstract: | This study explores the gendered impacts of violent crime on economic opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean. While both men and women experience violent crime, their exposure to violent crime and the consequences they suffer differ. Women are disproportionately affected by intimate partner violence, sexual harassment, and mobility restrictions, all of which limit their labor market participation and economic independence. Through a review of the literature, the study identifies six primary mechanisms through which violent crime affects women’s economic outcomes: sectoral segregation, fear of victimization, mobility constraints, intra-household bargaining power shifts, increased intimate partner violence, and disruptions to human capital accumulation. By analyzing these gendered dimensions, the study highlights how violent crime may contribute to inequality and restrict women’s access to economic opportunities. Policy responses must go beyond general crime reduction strategies and incorporate gender-sensitive interventions, including stronger legal protections, labor market reforms, and investments in childcare and financial inclusion. Addressing violent crime from a gendered perspective is essential for fostering economic resilience and reducing inequalities in Latin America and the Caribbean. |
| Date: | 2026–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11294 |
| By: | Berha, Andu; Khemani, Stuti |
| Abstract: | Unreliable electricity supply in developing countries is a persistent problem with significant adverse consequences for economic growth. This paper uses a novel database on utilities, which provides systematic data on reliability, and links it to available data on country-level institutions to provide new evidence on variation in reliability across countries. The data reveal that utilities located in countries with weak institutions for controlling corruption perform significantly worse at delivering reliable electricity. The data also show that privately owned utilities perform better than publicly owned ones, consistent with standard reforms of privatization that are pursued to overcome governance problems. However, private ownership is less likely in countries with higher control of corruption, where public utilities perform better than their counterparts in countries with weaker institutions. Regardless of ownership, the estimates suggest that any given utility is likely to perform worse over time when the country in which it is located has weaker institutions. The paper forges links with available case studies to discuss potential mechanisms that may account for the correlations revealed in the data, yielding forward-looking ideas for how to turn around utility performance in weak institutional contexts. |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11290 |
| By: | Pathak, Shivangi |
| Abstract: | This study presents analysis of gender wage differentials in India using data from Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2022-23. It shows comparison between the male and female laborers in case of the location of work i.e., rural-urban, earnings across employment categories with references to education on contextual basis. The analysis relies on published PLFS tables and applies percentage gap calculations and simple graphical comparisons. The findings reveal that there is a persistent gender wage gap across all segments of labour markets. The women are mostly engaged in self-employment and informal sectors, mainly in rural areas, leading to low-average earnings. The study also highlights that education alone fails to eliminate wage inequality and the market calls for a structural labour market and policy implementation to reduce the gender wage gap prevailing so far. |
| Date: | 2026–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9w4bk_v1 |
| By: | Kilic, Talip; Letta, Marco; Montalbano, Pierluigi; Petruccelli, Federica |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new resilience index, CLARE (Causal machine Learning Approach to Resilience Estimation), which is rooted in an impact evaluation framework and causal machine learning algorithms applied to longitudinal household survey data. The indicator is model-agnostic, data-driven, scalable, and normatively anchored to wellbeing thresholds, and can be either shock-specific or a general-purpose resilience metric. The paper provides an empirical demonstration of constructing the CLARE resilience index, leveraging more than 28, 000 household observations from 19 nationally representative, longitudinal, multi-topic surveys that were implemented by the national statistical offices in Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda over 2009–20 in partnership with the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study. Although the paper centers on measuring resilience to drought, the proposed index is applicable to any type of shock. The analysis shows that CLARE outperforms existing resilience metrics and alternative approaches to predict food insecurity out-of-sample—both in the future (dynamic forecasting) and in held-out countries (cross-sectional prediction). The index can be decomposed to causally identify the relative importance of resilience capacities that can insulate populations from shocks. Thus, it can be operationalized in designing, targeting, and monitoring policies and investments that aim to strengthen resilience. CLARE’s deployment—paired with continued investments in national longitudinal survey platforms—can boost the effectiveness of early-warning systems and resilience-building interventions, while allowing the transfer of resilience policy advice from data-rich contexts to data-poor environments that may not immediately provide the requisite longitudinal survey data for index estimation. |
| Date: | 2026–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11292 |
| By: | Andrés Álvarez (Universidad de los Andes); Oscar Becerra (Universidad de los Andes); Manuel Fernández (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Countries at similar income levels exhibit markedly different rates and anatomies of labor informality. We organize these patterns around three interacting forces: a legal wedge (minimum wages and non-wage labor costs, alongside enforcement), the sectoral productivity and composition, and the private value of formality (coverage, portability, and contract enforceability). A parsimonious model yields sharp “thin-margin” predictions: effects concentrate where earnings cluster near the minimum legal standards. Evidence from a cross-country, country–sector panel supports the framework—legal and enforcement effects are largest where thin-margin exposure is high; higher private value lowers informality and dampens wedge effects; and composition, especially within services, conditions aggregates. The results reconcile disparate findings and imply targeted policy: align enforcement with thin-margin exposure, raise the private value of formality via low-friction administration and portability, and pursue sectoral paths that expand formal-leaning activities. |
| Keywords: | Informal employment; informal sector; minimum wage; non-wage labor costs; sectoral composition. |
| JEL: | J46 O17 J38 J31 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:022171 |
| By: | Markhof, Yannick Valentin; Wollburg, Philip Randolph; Palacios-Lopez, Amparo; Castaing, Pauline; Sagesaka, Akiko; Contreras, Ivette |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a large-scale experiment in rural Nigeria to study the role of survey mode—in-person versus over the phone—in survey measurement and data quality. The experimental design isolates mode effects from other common sources of errors in surveys and covers 20 outcome measures across topics such as health, labor, shocks, wellbeing, and food security. The findings indicate consistent mode effects across outcomes, with phone responses differing from in-person responses by 17-18 percent at the median. These effects are large relative to other errors in phone surveys, such as under-coverage of households without phones. A within-respondent design enables capturing the full, respondent-level distribution of mode effects and finds them to vary much more than the averages reveal. Respondents with higher education levels are less prone to mode effects, whereas mode effects sharply increase in prevalence as respondents face more answer options. As the reliance on phone surveys in low- and middle-income countries grows, these findings indicate areas with large potential for data quality gains and have first-order implications for economic research in low- and middle-income countries. |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11302 |
| By: | Rocco Macchiavello (LSE); Josepa Miquel Florensa (Toulouse School of Economics.); Nicolás de Roux (Universidad de los Andes); Eric Verhoogen (Columbia University); Mario Bernasconi (University of Basel); Patrick Farrell (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | Do the returns to quality upgrading pass through supply chains to primary producers? We explore this question in the context of Colombia’s coffee sector, in which market outcomes depend on interactions between farmers, exporters (which operate mills), and international buyers, and contracts are for the most part not legally enforceable. We formalize the hypothesis that quality upgrading is subject to a key hold-up problem: producing high-quality beans requires long-term investments by farmers, but there is no guarantee that an exporter will pay a quality premium when the beans arrive at its mills. An international buyer with sufficient demand for highquality coffee can solve this problem by imposing a vertical restraint on the exporter, requiring the exporter to pay a quality premium to farmers. Combining internal records from two exporters, comprehensive administrative data, and the staggered rollout of a buyer-driven quality-upgrading program, we find empirical support for the key theoretical predictions, both the lack of pass-through of quality premia under normal circumstances and the possibility of a buyer-driven solution through a vertical restraint. Calibration of the model suggests that one-third to two-thirds of the (substantial) gains from the program accrue to farmers, with the vertical restraint playing a critical role. The results are consistent with the hypotheses that quality upgrading can provide a path to higher incomes for farmers, but also that it is unlikely to be viable under standard market conditions in the sector. |
| Keywords: | Quality Upgrading, Relational Contracts, Vertical Restraints, Buyer-Driven Voluntary Standards |
| JEL: | O12 F61 L23 Q12 Q13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:022173 |
| By: | Wilson King; Edward Miguel; Michael W. Walker |
| Abstract: | Taller people earn more, especially in low- and middle-income countries. We present among the first evidence of this phenomenon in Africa, using longitudinal microdata on a cohort of middle-aged Kenyan adults. We document a substantial height/earnings premium: controlling for gender, age, and other socio-demographics, monthly earnings increase by 1.07% per centimeter (or 2.72% per inch). Nearly half this effect can be explained by differences in cognition, measured from an unusually rich battery containing 27 modules. Additional shares of the premium can be attributed to measures of physical strength and non-cognitive ability. In contrast to prior work, we find little role for occupational sorting: conditional on cognitive and non-cognitive ability, taller people do not appear more likely to work in higher paid sectors. Leveraging repeated measures of height and an instrumental variables specification, we find suggestive evidence that measurement error may be attenuating the estimated relationship. |
| JEL: | I15 J1 O11 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34769 |
| By: | Mazen Fathy (Egypt Impact Lab); Chahir Zaki (Laboratoire d’Economie d’Orleans) |
| Abstract: | Despite rising levels of Global Value Chains (GVC) integration in several emerging and developing economies, the latter failed to experience a significant structural change. Thus, this paper examines how participating in global supply chains can have implications on labor reallocation in the economy, and to what extent technological advances can alter this effect. To do that, we use the EORA database and calculate structural change variables. Moreover, we control for the endogeneity between these two variables. Our main findings show that overall, global value chains participation has an insignificant effect on structural change. This result holds for different measures of GVC (backward and forward) and of structural change (static and dynamic). Several mechanisms explain the missing link between GVC and structural change, namely their inability to create enough jobs, the increase in capital intensive industries, the dominance of natural resources and the skill bias technological change. |
| Date: | 2025–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1778 |
| By: | Vladimir Hlasny; Yasmine Abdelfattah (Cairo University); Shireen AlAzzawi; Hala Abou-Ali; Rania Megally |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty across the Middle East and North Africa leads to health and growth hazards for millions of children, who are exposed and vulnerable to poor climate conditions at home. These hazards are heightened by the increasing occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events, as children become even more exposed and their organisms even more vulnerable to indoor climate conditions. This paper investigates the nexus between indoor and outdoor climate conditions, on the one hand, and children s anthropometric development (stunting, wasting) and mortality (neonatal and infant), on the other hand. Children s access to clean energy is gauged using a Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index or a principal component analysis score of households connection to electricity, and usage of clean fuels and cooking facilities. Highresolution temperature data are matched to households at the level of provinces. The analysis is applied to household-level microdata from 22 health surveys across ten MENA developing countries, and trends over time are assessed. We find that energy poverty has positive effects on longer-term anthropometric growth (i.e., risk of stunting) across most countries, but the effects on shorter-term or more acute health indicators, including wasting and mortality, are limited. Energy poverty is associated with stunting particularly in Morocco, Mauritania, Palestine and Tunisia. It is also modestly associated with infant mortality, especially in Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey. Girls, and children of wealthier, more educated parents in urban areas face lower stunting, wasting and mortality risks in most countries. These results underscore the necessity for targeted genderresponsive policies addressing energy poverty and climate resilience to improve child health outcomes in the region. |
| Date: | 2025–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1789 |
| By: | Thomas Calvo (LEDa-DIAL, IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL, Paris); Emmanuelle Lavallée (LEDa-DIAL, IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL, 75016 Paris); Mireille Razafindrakoto (LEDa-DIAL, IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL, Paris); François Roubaud (LEDa-DIAL, IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL, Paris) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how armed conflict affects public attitudes to democracy. We analyze the role of both experience and fear of violence in support for basic democratic principles and preference for democratic rule in Mali, a country torn by a multi-dimensional conflict since 2012. We combine event location data with sub-nationally representative household survey data including first-hand add-on survey modules on governance, peace and security collected yearly from 2014 to 2019. On the one hand, we find that exposure to violence has a small negative to zero effect on attitudes to democracy. Our results are robust to recent eventstudy approaches as well as to selection into migration. Behind the null effect of violence lie heterogeneities based on the identity of the armed group involved. On the other hand, fear of conflict has strong negative impacts on the public’s commitment to democratic values and support for democracy. Greater support for military rule from fearful individuals is driven by those living in areas not affected by the conflict. In conflict-free areas, citizens are willing to forgo certain freedoms in pursuit of greater security. |
| Keywords: | Armed conflict; Fear; Political attitudes; Support for democracy; Military rule |
| JEL: | D71 D72 D91 F51 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202601 |
| By: | Francesco Campo (University of Padua); Federico Maggio (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of illicit drug markets on violence and economic well-being, focusing on the case of the cocaine trade in Colombia between 2011 and 2021. We construct a network of cocaine trafficking routes from coca-growing areas to exit points and identify the municipalities located in the proximity of these routes. By leveraging temporal changes in coca cultivation, we induce variation in exposure to cocaine trafficking along the routes. Our identification strategy exploits the quasi- experimental setting provided by the unanticipated announcement in 2014 of a gov- ernmental crop-substitution program (PNIS), which led to a sizable increase in coca production. We find a significant positive effect of the amount of cocaine trafficked on the homicide rate along the routes, while we find no significant impact on economic well-being, proxied by nighttime light intensity. The effect on violence is strongest in municipalities with multiple competing criminal organizations and in areas closer to a route’s origin or endpoint, as well as in departmental capitals. These results highlight the importance of considering trafficking routes and export nodes when evaluating drug policy. Accordingly, cocaine supply-reduction policies might help achieve a sub- stantial reduction in drug-related violence while imposing no net economic cost on the general population. |
| Keywords: | : Colombia, Drug trafficking, Violence. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0329 |
| By: | Matias Ciaschi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Mario Negre (The World Bank); Guido Neidhöfer (Türk-Alman Üniversitesi & ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents comprehensive evidence on intergenerational mobility in Mozambique—the country with the lowest documented level of mobility worldwide—and investigates its relationship with child labor. Using survey data that includes a module on non co-resident adult children, we document a strong link between children’s educational attainment and parental education and household wealth. Interestingly, our findings suggest that child labor perpetuates intergenerational inequality, not merely as a response to income shocks, but mainly due to labor market structures—particularly the complementarity between parental and child labor and the substantial opportunity costs associated with schooling. These findings underscore the need for targeted policies that decouple children’s labor market prospects from those of their parents and enhance awareness of the long-term returns to education. |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0365 |
| By: | Astrid Sneyers |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at disentangling the mutual link between conflict, drought and food security in Somalia. The analysis is conducted using various indicators for food security and on different sub-national aggregation levels. The evidence is based on data from three household-level surveys, collected in various regions in Somalia between 2013-2015. While the general these that drought triggers conflict is confirmed, a negative effect of both drought and conflict on non-food expenditures is found, suggesting that these households buy less non-food items when confronted with distressing situations. Increasing drought and conflict effects on food consumption scores and food expenditures are furthermore encountered for households in Somaliland and Puntland. We test the hypothesis of differing effects of conflict and drought for households in various food security situations, with different food consumption scores, and find empirical support for the existence of a potential ’food insecurity trap’. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:449 |
| By: | Workineh Ayenew; Andreas Kotsadam; Charlotte Ringdal; Espen Villanger |
| Abstract: | Armed conflict has far-reaching effects on household well-being, including increased risk of violence. We examine whether changes in local armed conflict exposure are associated with changes in caregiver-perpetrated physical punishment of children. We link six waves (2016–2021) of panel survey data from employed women in Ethiopia (1, 065 respondents; just over 5, 000 respondent-wave observations) to geo-referenced conflict events from ACLED. Using respondent and wave fixed-effects linear probability models, we find that a one–standard–deviation increase in conflict exposure (18.8 events) increases the probability of physical punishment by any caregiver by 3.4 percentage points (pp) (≈ 5.2% relative to the mean), father punishment by 2.7 pp (≈ 6.4%), mother punishment by 3.6 pp (≈ 5.6%), and punishment by both caregivers by 2.9 pp (≈ 7.3%). A decomposition into presence versus intensity indicates a sizeable increase at conflict onset, with smaller incremental increases as events accumulate. Conflict exposure also coincides with higher caregiver distress and indicators of economic strain, including reduced labor supply and lower reported income among fathers. These findings suggest that conflict can spill over into harsher parenting, highlighting the importance of integrating child protection, caregiver mental health support, and livelihood assistance into conflict-response programming. |
| Keywords: | civil conflict, ethiopia, violence against children |
| JEL: | I1 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:451 |