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on Development |
| By: | Rexer, Jonah Matthew; Sharma, Siddharth |
| Abstract: | How do climate shocks shape resource allocation across firms? Rising temperatures might worsen allocative efficiency if large, productive firms face constraints in adapting. This paper assesses this question in India, an economy characterized by informality, misallocation, and extreme heat. The paper uses census data on 42 million non-farm establishments from 1990 to 2013 linked to granular climate histories to estimate the impact of heat on the firm size distribution. A 1 degree Celsius temperature shock reduces firm size by 11.6 percent, with losses concentrated among large, formal firms. Displaced workers reallocate to smaller, informal firms, generating allocative efficiency losses of up to 4.3 percent. In long difference estimates spanning several decades, the relationship reverses: large firms adapt and absorb labor, while small firms contract. This adaptation offsets nearly 60 percent of the short-run labor demand shock. These results highlight a general mechanism of climate adjustment: in the short run, shocks exacerbate misallocation by pushing labor into low-productivity firms, but in the long run, adaptation by larger firms restores efficiency. |
| Date: | 2026–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11284 |
| By: | Baioni Tomás |
| Abstract: | One of the salient aspects of climate change is the increment of both the intensity and frequency of natural disasters. This paper addresses how these factors interplay at a local level, focusing on Chilean regions at a quarterly basis for the period 2009-2025, using the local projections method. Results suggest that on average, a 1% shock in natural disasters' intensity has an immediate negative effect in employment by 0.06%, and an immediate negative effect on the debt market, increasing the household debt by 0.1 p.p. Overall, my results suggest that a 1% shock in natural disasters' intensity has an immediate positive effect in real GDP by 0.02%, and a significant long-term negative effect on GDP by 0.05%, potentially showing signs of reallocation of a country's income. When analyzing natural disasters' frequency, estimates suggest that Chilean regions that suffer a natural disaster are more likely to experience short-term decreases in employment and increases in household debt, and lower GDP, although the latter effect is found to not be statistically significant. I rely on a panel VAR model to estimate the impact of natural disasters' intensity as robustness checks, and find that my original conclusions hold: natural disasters have a short-term negative effect on employment at 0.01% and a long-term negative effect on growth at 0.2%. |
| JEL: | H70 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4778 |
| By: | Sonoda, Tadashi |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between earned nonfarm income and farm performance in Bangladesh. Specifically, the study assesses the impact of components of nonfarm income (wage, self-employment, and salary incomes) on input utilization and technical efficiency. The study uses panel data from Bangladesh's Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) and Tobit procedure to account for potential censoring in our dependent variables. Findings reveal that although overall earned nonfarm income positively affects total crop production expenditures and investments in seeds and irrigation, it shows a negative impact on expenses for fertilizer, labor, and equipment. The disaggregated sources of earned nonfarm income show that nonfarm income sources have heterogeneous effects—salary and wage income generally decrease agricultural investments and technical efficiency. Still, self-employment income shows a positive impact on expenditures for farming inputs and technical efficiency. Finally, climatic shocks significantly influence input use patterns, with affected farmers increasing expenditures on fertilizer, irrigation, and labor. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between sources of earned nonfarm income and farm performance and technical efficiency in Bangladesh. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360942 |
| By: | Botello, Hector |
| Abstract: | This study examines agricultural firm resilience during COVID-19 using administrative data covering 45, 127 firms in Ecuador from 2012-2023. We employ difference-indifferences methodology to analyze pandemic impacts across sectors and firm characteristics. We find that agricultural firms demonstrated initial pandemic resilience in 2020, outperforming other sectors by 10.3 percentage points. However, this advantage reversed during 2022-2023, when agricultural firms experienced delayed vulnerability with sales declining 13.0 percentage points more than other sectors. Within agriculture, small firms (10-49 employees) faced the worst outcomes, performing worse than both micro and large enterprises. Export-oriented firms sacrificed short-term sales performance to preserve market relationships, ultimately achieving better survival rates despite revenue losses. These temporal patterns reveal that agricultural resilience varies significantly across firm characteristics and time periods. The findings challenge uniform sectoral policies and suggest targeting small agricultural firms during extended recovery periods. Our results contribute to organizational resilience theory by demonstrating that firm-level characteristics matter more than sectoral membership for crisis outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360606 |
| By: | Jaime Miravet (Deptartment of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (Department of Economics and Center for Statistics, Georg-August Universitaet Goettingen, Göttingen, Germany & IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how labor provisions in trade agreements affect labor rights in developing countries. Using panel data for 105 developing countries from 1995 to 2021 and an instrumental variables strategy to address endogeneity, we estimate the effects on both de jure and de facto labor rights. We construct novel measures capturing not only the category but also the depth of labor provisions, drawing on the ILO’s Labor Provisions in Trade Agreements Hub, which covers 79 thematic areas. We find that binding provisions improve de jure labor rights but do not affect de facto outcomes, thereby widening the gap between law and practice. Non-binding provisions show no significant effects, highlighting both the importance and limitations of enforceability and depth in labor provisions. |
| Keywords: | labor provisions, trade agreements, labor rights, enforceability, provision depth, developing countries. |
| JEL: | F13 J83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/1 |
| By: | Kumar, Deepak; Ta, Chi; Gupta. Anubhab |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the short-run economic impacts of low-intensity typhoons—tropical storms and depressions—on local activity in Vietnam. Leveraging monthly electricity consumption data for over two million households across three coastal provinces from 2012–2022, we construct a high-resolution panel merged with typhoon track data. We exploit hyperlocal variation in typhoon exposure using a dynamic event study and a stacked difference-in-differences design, defining treatment based on proximity within 17 kilometers of a storm’s path. Results show a sharp and statistically significant decline in electricity consumption—up to 5% in the month of landfall—concentrated in areas directly hit by tropical storms. Tropical depressions exhibit smaller, noisier effects. Comparison with BRDF-corrected nighttime lights (NTL) data reveals that electricity consumption provides more reliable estimates of typhoon impacts at lower administrative levels, as NTL measures fail the parallel trends test. Our findings underscore the economic relevance of frequently overlooked, lower-intensity storms and highlight the value of granular energy data in assessing disaster-induced disruptions in developing country contexts. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360982 |
| By: | Zarrilli Joaquín; Porto Natalia; De la Vega Pablo; García Carolina Inés |
| Abstract: | Economies around the world are simultaneously undergoing two profound changes: the 'green' (sustainability-focused) transition and the 'automation’ (digital-focused) transition. This dual or ‘twin’ transition has significant implications for the tourism industry, which is a crucial source of employment for many countries. This paper explores the potential for transitions to green and digital jobs in the tourism industry. We analyse household survey data for the seven largest economies of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Uruguay) for the period 2011-2024. Our main results show that the tourism sector in Latin America has high potential to reallocate workers from brown to green jobs, thereby reducing the adjustment costs of decarbonization. This capacity is particularly pronounced in Mexico and Ecuador, and is especially strong among younger cohorts, men, and workers with lower levels of formal education. |
| JEL: | E20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4846 |
| By: | Corbi, Raphael; Falco, Chiara; Uberti, Luca J. |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of infrastructure investment on conflict using 163 hydroelectric dams in Brazil (2002–2022). Leveraging the staggered rollout of construction in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that dams trigger sharp, temporary surges in land invasions, water disputes, and homicides. These effects peak during construction and dissipate upon operation, suggesting they stem from the displacement process rather than the public good itself. Crucially, conflict is mediated by local institutions: violence occurs only where property rights are weak and displacement affects vulnerable smallholders. Our results demonstrate that without effective compensation, state-led modernization generates destabilizing redistributive shocks. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Dairy Farming, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:387608 |
| By: | Angel Alvarado (University of Pennsylvania); Ivan Luzardo-Luna (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines divergent economic trajectories in Latin America between the late nineteenth century and the first half of the twentieth century through the lens of informal empire, fiscal policy, and institutional development. We construct a country–commodity panel covering the period 1850–1950 to assess the impact of foreign corporations on commodity production in seven Latin American countries—Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela—that experienced economic take-off under an export-led growth model. We find evidence that foreign corporations promoted key commodity exports, although these results are contingent on the inclusion of Venezuela’s oil industry. We argue that Venezuela’s distinctive outcome reflects the interaction between a capital-intensive staple and a fiscal strategy that avoided debt-led growth during the 1920s, as oil revenues were used to reduce and repay external public debt. This choice allowed Venezuela to sustain informal empire arrangements through the Great Depression, in contrast to other large countries in the region. |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:26-002 |
| By: | Gilbert, Rachel; Guene, Herve; Kazianga, Harounan; Masters, William; Nana, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between income, a!ordability, and healthy diet consumption in eight West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries using household survey data. We estimate an Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system for ten goods, including six healthy food groups, and analyze how consumption patterns vary with the cost and a!ordability of healthy diets. We find that while the affordability of healthy diets improves uniformly with income, this does not translate proportionally into better dietary intakes. Income elasticity estimates are larger for ”other foods” and non-food items than healthy diet components, suggesting that income growth may not systematically improve nutrition. These findings suggest that improving economic access alone using policy tools such as income transfers may not be enough to address dietary quality in the region. We argue that alternative policies, such as in-kind transfers of healthy foods or vouchers targeting specific foods, could be more e!ective but may be logistically challenging. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360896 |
| By: | Amin, Mohammad; Islam, Asif Mohammed; Padhi, Debasmita |
| Abstract: | The business practices of unregistered or informal enterprises can significantly affect their performance and the overall productivity of the sector. However, very little is known about the prevalence of business practices and the sorts of factors that influence their adoption among informal enterprises. This is especially the case in the context of fragile economies. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by analyzing the adoption of business practices among informal enterprises in the Central African Republic, which serves as a unique context – high informality, low education attainment, and recurrent shocks including conflict and the AIDS epidemic. While several factors correlated with the decision to adopt business practices are uncovered, the focus is on the education level of the business owner or manager. A conservative estimate suggests that relative to no education or up to primary education, secondary or higher education increases the likelihood of adopting one or more of the nine business practices considered by about 10 percentage points. The number of business practices adopted increases by 0.66 (against a mean value of 1.7). The paper shows that the positive impact of education is most likely causal using entropy balancing, inverse probability weighting, the Oster test for selection on observables, and the impact of the AIDS epidemic in the latter half of the 1990s on school enrollment as an instrument for the education level of current business owners. The analysis also finds significant heterogeneities in the relationship between education and business practices. Belonging to a business association and a business owner’s past experience in the industry may compensate for a lack of formal education, while the use of electricity, manufacturing versus services activity, and location in Bangui city versus Berberati complement and magnify the positive effect of education. The paper discusses several avenues for future research. |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11280 |
| By: | Chakraborty, Subarta; Mishra, Ashok K.; Yan, Hongqiang |
| Abstract: | The paper examines whether participation in India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) affects agricultural production's farm-level technical efficiency (TE). We employ a multi-stage empirical strategy using nationally representative farm household data, combining propensity score matching, stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), metafrontier estimation, and selectivity-corrected SFA models. Our results consistently show that participation in MGNREGA does not significantly impair technical efficiency. The average technical efficiency is comparable between participants and non-participants (~59%), and the differences in technology gap ratios and meta-technical efficiency are modest. While participants face a slightly wider technology gap, they exhibit marginally higher group-specific efficiency, suggesting effective input utilization within their technological constraints. Selectivity-corrected models further confirm that controlling for unobservable factors does not alter the core findings. The results challenge prevailing concerns about MGNREGA’s negative productivity spillovers and reinstate the importance of the public workforce program. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360648 |
| By: | Saha, Kajari |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal relationship between climate shocks and women’s experiences of physical intimate partner violence (P-IPV) in rural India. Using geo-coded weather data linked to domestic violence reports from the two recent rounds of the Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS 2015–16 and 2019–21), I find that droughts, wet shocks, and extreme heat during the most recent kharif growing season significantly increase the likelihood of women experiencing P-IPV. Specifically, exposure to a drought during the growing season increases the prevalence of less-severe P-IPV by 11.6%, while wet shocks increase severe P-IPV by 30.6%. Heat stress, measured as cumulative degree days above 30°C, is also associated with higher rates of both less-severe and severe IPV. Further analysis suggests that increased economic insecurity, husband’s alcohol use and marital controlling behaviors, and a decline in women’s empowerment are central pathways underlying these effects. Additional heterogeneity analyses reveal that household characteristics — such as land ownership and bank account access play a protective role by offering formal or informal insurance that helps buffer the harmful effects of drought on P-IPV. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360945 |
| By: | Saha, Roshan; Won, Sunjae; Taylor, Mykel R. |
| Abstract: | Rainfall significantly influences agricultural productivity and labor markets in India. Deviations from ‘normal’ rainfall patterns impact economic outcomes by altering labor supply and wage dynamics. This paper uses two definitions to examine the effects of rainfall shocks on male agricultural wages. First, we classify positive (negative) shocks as deviations above (below) the 80th (20th) percentiles of the historical district-month rainfall distribution (1990–2017). Second, we redefine shocks using the previous 3-year moving reference period to minimize forward-looking bias. Using panel fixed-effects models on district-level data from 586 districts across 20 states, we find that rainfall shocks affect wages asymmetrically. Negative rainfall shocks in harvest season increase male real wages, while positive shocks have mixed effects depending on intensity and timing. But these individual season shocks are not significant when we consider the 3-year recall period. Rather, a negative shock in the sowing season followed by either positive or negative shock in the harvest season, together, influences male wages at the district level. The study underscores the importance of considering the reference period used to define rainfall shocks. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360941 |
| By: | Ogundari, Kolawole |
| Abstract: | Evaluating agricultural extension programs enables the assessment of success and continuity using various research designs, data, and methodologies. We synthesize the literature on the impact of agricultural extension services to compare the magnitude and direction across four outcomes: agricultural production, input use, adoption, and welfare of farming households. We also examine their variation across the study attributes. Our literature search yielded 120 causal inference studies, which produced 579 estimates published between 2004 and 2025. We then employed meta-regression analysis for empirical analysis. Our results show that the estimated impact of agricultural extension services reported in the literature increased over time across all estimates and outcomes related to agricultural production, input use, and household welfare, while it decreased over time on outcomes associated with adopting agricultural technologies. Other results indicate that the average estimate of the impact of agricultural extension services reported in the literature is positive and statistically significant, with small but consistent effects across all outcome domains, as revealed through meta-regression and bias-corrected models. We also find that some study attributes are associated with the variation in the study's reported impact of agricultural extension services. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361182 |