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on Development |
| By: | Paul X. McCarthy; Xian Gong; Marian-Andrei Rizoiu; Paolo Boldi |
| Abstract: | The global aid system functions as a complex and evolving ecosystem; yet widespread understanding of its structure remains largely limited to aggregate volume flows. Here we map the network topology of global aid using a dataset of unprecedented scale: over 10 million transaction records connecting 2, 456 publishing organisations across 230 countries between 1967 and 2025. We apply bipartite projection and dimensionality reduction to reveal the geometry of the system and unveil hidden patterns. This exposes distinct functional clusters that are otherwise sparsely connected. We find that while governments and multilateral agencies provide the primary resources, a small set of knowledge brokers provide the critical connectivity. Universities and research foundations specifically act as essential bridges between disparate islands of implementers and funders. We identify a core solar system of 25 central actors who drive this connectivity including unanticipated brokers like J-PAL and the Hewlett Foundation. These findings demonstrate that influence in the aid ecosystem flows through structural connectivity as much as financial volume. Our results provide a new framework for donors to identify strategic partners that accelerate coordination and evidence diffusion across the global network. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.17243 |
| By: | Arteaga, Julian; Deininger, Klaus |
| Abstract: | As with most agricultural inputs, the optimal use of fertilizer leverages the production complementarities between different types of nutrients. Wide variation in the intensity of nutrient application rates suggests there are potentially large productivity gains to be had from rebalancing fertilizer use across nutrient types even under a fixed expenditure budget. Using detailed information on a large sample of rice fields across three states in eastern India, this paper investigates whether a more balanced use of fertilizer—measured as the ratio of potash to nitrogen applied to a field—can lead to higher yields and revenues. To address the endogeneity of fertilizer application decisions, the analysis exploits the fact that nitrogen-based fertilizers demanded by Indian farmers are mostly produced domestically in a limited number of manufacturing plants, while all potash-based fertilizers must be imported by ship from abroad. Instrumenting for the ratio of potassium-to-nitrogen fertilizer applied on a field with the relative travel distances between farmers’ villages and both the nearest urea production plant and the nearest international port, the paper estimates the impact of more balanced fertilizer use on yields and revenues. The estimates show that at median levels of fertilizer use, and keeping the level of expenditure on fertilizers constant, rebalancing fertilizer application choices such that the potassium-to-nitrogen ratio of fertilizer is doubled would lead to a 4.8 percent increase in yield. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361015 |
| By: | Raphael Kweyu (Department of Geography, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya); S. Kehinde Medase (Institute of Innovation and Rural Economics, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Braunschweig, Germany); Resty Naiga (Department of Development Studies, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda) |
| Abstract: | To promote social justice and support inclusive development in East Africa, addressing land inequality is essential. Kenya and Uganda illustrate the complex factors driving land inequality in subÂSaharan Africa. During colonial times, extensive fertile lands were often alienated from local communities and given to colonial authorities, resulting in persistent land disparities. This study assesses land inequality in both countries using household surveys, the Gini, and Theil approaches. For background, we examine colonial history, land tenure regimes, and theories of structural inequality. Our findings show Uganda has higher inequality than Kenya, with regional differences greatly influencing these patterns. Kenya's inequality is lower, with some intergroup differences, such as those linked to gender, residence, religion, and marital status, having a limited impact. In Uganda, a small elite group controls the majority of the land, as indicated by Lorenz curves and spatial maps. The results highlight the need for countryÂspecific policies: Kenya should adopt community approaches, while Uganda should utilise regional strategies. These initiatives require a collaborative effort from stakeholders, including governments, agencies, and civil society, to support inclusive initiatives. This analysis guides efforts to improve land equality and governance, promoting fairness and development in Eastern Africa. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural land, Lorenz curve, land inequality, Kenya, Uganda, land governance |
| JEL: | J15 I3 Q15 Q23 R2 Y10 |
| Date: | 2026–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-001 |
| By: | Gilbert, Rachel |
| Abstract: | Low and lower-middle income countries have declining rates of undernutrition as measured by micronutrient deficiencies or stunting, but a rising burden of other diet-related diseases such as diabetes and hypertension. Using household survey data from Malawi, one of the world’s lowest income countries, we find that the quality of diets rises with income up until incomes of approximately $2.60 international dollars per person per day (2021 PPP), well above the international poverty line ($2.15) but below the average cost of the least-expensive healthy diet available in Malawi ($3.03) (FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO, 2024b). The wealthiest households consume vegetables, legumes, nuts and seeds below recommended thresholds, and consume more calories from starchy staples and discretionary foods than are needed for health. This results in lower diet quality in terms of risk factors for disease than could be achieved at that level of income. This evidence suggests that rising incomes alone may not sufficient to improve diets in extremely low-income settings over the long term, although income transfers remain imperative to improve diets and well-being of the poorest households. Targeted income increases among households with higher baseline diet quality appears better-suited to producing diet quality increases. Other approaches that target marginalized households or target specific food groups (fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts and seeds) may be needed to make significant diet quality improvements among the rest of the population. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361158 |
| By: | Bellemare, Marc F.; Kandpal, Eeshani; Thomas, Katherina |
| Abstract: | How much do the poor spend on food when their income increases? We estimate a key economic parameter—the income elasticity of food expenditures—using data from the randomized evaluations of five cash transfer programs: four conditional (two in Mexico, and one in each of Nicaragua and the Philippines) and one unconditional (in Uganda). The transfers provided routine, exogenous increases of 12 to 23 percent of baseline income for at least a year to recipients at or below the global poverty line. Using pooled ordinary least squares and Bayesian hierarchical models, we first show that expenditures on all food categories increase with income. But even among some of the poorest people in the world, all of whom are experiencing high hunger levels, our estimated income elasticity for food is 0.03, i.e., much smaller than many published estimates relying either on cross-sectional variation or study responses to large income shocks. Next, we use our data to test Engel’s Law—which predicts that the budget share of food will monotonically decrease as income increases—and to run a the first credible test of Bennett’s Law—the empirical regularity whereby, for poor households, income increases are associated with (i) shifting spending from coarse to fine staples, and (ii) spending more on protein than staples—finding support for both. While income increases lead consumers to spend a declining share of their income on food and to substitute fine grains for coarse grains and protein for staples, the estimated shifts are smaller than previous estimates. Quantifying how small, routine income changes affect food demand in low- and middle-income countries can inform the policy discourse on poverty reduction, nutrition, and social protection, as well as the debate on the impact of economic growth on global carbon emission patterns. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361225 |
| By: | Barsinge, Anjuman; Arora, Utkarsh; Ali, Saif; Arora, Gaurav |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the causal impact of farm pond construction under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) on rural employment outcomes at the Gram Panchayat (GP) level across India. Using a fixed effects panel regression model following Propensity Score Matching (PSM), we estimate the treatment effects on total household employment, Scheduled Caste (SC) employment, Scheduled Tribe (ST) employment, and women’s employment. Results indicate that farm pond construction generates a statistically significant increase of approximately 100 person-days in annual employment per GP. While SC and ST households experience positive employment gains, the magnitude is notably smaller than that observed for the general population, highlighting persistent inequalities in program reach. A significant increase in women’s employment (~74 households) suggests that local and flexible MGNREGA worksites play a crucial role in promoting female labor force participation. Control variables—such as household engagement in farming, irrigated area, presence of high schools, and internal pucca roads—exhibit strong associations with employment outcomes, indicating that the effectiveness of farm pond interventions is conditioned by local socio-economic and infrastructural contexts. GPs with higher agricultural activity and irrigation potential show greater employment gains, while better educational infrastructure is associated with reduced dependence on public employment schemes. The presence of pucca roads significantly enhances employment among SC/ST populations, emphasizing the role of connectivity in accessing rural worksites. These findings underscore the need for a place-based approach in public works planning and reinforce the role of natural resource management assets in inclusive rural development. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361079 |
| By: | Kim, Hannah; Hultgren, Andrew; Janzen, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Weather extremes in early childhood can disrupt child growth and nutrition outcomes, but global evidence across developing countries remains limited. We examine the impact of temperature and precipitation variations on early childhood malnutrition across 57 low and middle income countries using over 1.2 million children from Demographic and Health Surveys linked to high-resolution ERA5 weather data. Using bin regression and restricted cubic splines, we identify nonlinear weather effects on stunting, underweight, and wasting probability while controlling for national, seasonal, and regional confounding factors. Our results show that both temperature and precipitation variations increase the probability of childhood malnutrition. We find that temperature has a nonlinear effect on stunting, where both high temperatures (above 90°F) and low temperatures (below 50°F) increase the probability by 1.3-1.4 percentage points relative to moderate conditions. Exposure to heat is associated with underweight and wasting, with months above 90°F increasing these outcomes by 1.2 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively. Precipitation effects vary by outcome type. Drought conditions below 5mm monthly precipitation increase underweight probability by 0.5 percentage points, while heavy rainfall above 250mm increases wasting risk by 0.4 percentage points. Effects vary across child age groups, with temperature showing more precise impacts on stunting among older children, while precipitation effects remain largely insignificant across age groups. Rural children show greater vulnerability to precipitation extremes, particularly for heavy rainfall effects on underweight and wasting. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360729 |
| By: | Barnor, Kodjo; Kafle, Kashi |
| Abstract: | Frequent and intense rainfall shocks pose a serious threat to educational attainment in agrarian economies, yet the pathways through which these shocks operate remain underexplored. Using nationally representative panel data from the Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) and high-resolution rainfall measures from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)), we estimate the effects of extreme droughts and floods on children’s schooling in Tanzania. Exploiting variation in rainfall deciles, we show that extreme low-rainfall events below the 10th percentile lead to a roughly 10 percentage points decline in school enrollment, while moderate deviations have no significant impact. Severe drought effects persist across specifications with household and individual fixed effects and are especially large for adolescents (13–17 years) and girls, who face declines in enrollment of up to 19 percentage points. We find that droughts sharply increase household reliance on family labor, adding nearly 36 days per year without substantially altering hired-labor inputs or children’s involvement in farm work. Continuous rainfall measures (total rainfall and lagged rainfall) further corroborate that incremental increases in precipitation significantly boost both plot-level yields and village-level vegetation indices. We offer new evidence on the timing, heterogeneity, and channels through which climate variability undermines educational investment in Sub-Saharan Africa and underscores the urgency of integrated policy responses that bolster both agricultural resilience and school access. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360983 |
| By: | Mehrotra, Santosh (University of Bath) |
| Abstract: | The paper applies the “dual synergies” model—linking economic growth, poverty reduction, and human capability formation—to explain why Latin America (LAC) remains trapped at middle-income levels. It challenges orthodox views that prioritize growth alone, arguing instead that growth, social policy, and human capital mutually reinforce each other. Using stylized facts, the paper shows that LAC’s extractive, commodity-dependent development model has produced volatile growth, weak job creation, high informality, and limited poverty reduction. This contrasts sharply with East Asia, where coordinated industrial policy, early investments in health and education, and financial deepening enabled sustained growth and structural transformation. In LAC, weak fiscal capacity, low savings, foreign-dominated banking, and inequality constrain public investment in human capital, weakening growth–poverty links. The paper argues that breaking the middle-income trap requires an integrated strategy: a renewed, state-capable industrial policy aimed at diversification, innovation, and manufacturing upgrading, combined with stronger social policies. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy, Latin America, East Asia |
| JEL: | O11 O14 O15 O25 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18352 |
| By: | Hoffmann, Bridget; Suárez, Nicolás; Rud, Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | This paper uses high-frequency data on fine particulate matter air pollution (PM 2.5) to study the effects of high pollution on health outcomes in Mexico City. We combine hourly monitoring station data on air pollution and weather conditions with a rich dataset of 10 million health episodes between 2003 and 2019, including deaths, hospitalizations, and urgent care visits. We disaggregate daily mean concentrations of PM 2.5 using the daily share of hours with PM 2.5 concentration above each WHO threshold to uncover a positive non-linear and convex relationship between hourly air pollution concentrations and same-day respiratory health outcomes of all severities. Specifically, a 1% increase in the share of hours with PM 2.5 concentrations above the highest WHO interim threshold (IT1) increases the number of respiratory deaths, hospitalizations, and urgent care visits per 1 million inhabitants by 0.001, 0.0008, and 0.024, respectively. We find that hours above IT1 have effects on respiratory health outcomes that are 20 to 30 times greater than those of additional hours above the air quality guideline, the most restrictive (i.e. lowest) WHO threshold. Furthermore, one additional hour a day with PM 2.5 above IT1 has the same effects on respiratory health outcomes as does increasing the daily average concentration of PM 2.5 in Mexico City by 41 µg/m3. We find that the effects of PM 2.5 on respiratory mortality and morbidity are distributed differently across ages and that the effect of PM 2.5 on respiratory deaths is driven by individuals with lower educational attainment. |
| JEL: | I10 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14425 |
| By: | Macchiavello, Rocco (University of Warwick); Miquel-Florensa, Josepa (Toulouse School of Economics); de Roux, Nicolás (Universidad de los Andes); Verhoogen, Eric (Columbia University); Bernasconi, Mario (University of Basel); Farrell, Patrick (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | Do the returns to quality upgrading pass through supply chains to primary producers? We explore this question in the context of Colombia’s coffee sector, in which market outcomes depend on interactions between farmers, exporters (which operate mills), and international buyers, and contracts are for the most part not legally enforceable. We formalize the hypothesis that quality upgrading is subject to a key hold-up problem: producing high-quality beans requires long-term investments by farmers, but there is no guarantee that an exporter will pay a quality premium when the beans arrive at its mills. An international buyer with sufficient demand for high-quality coffee can solve this problem by imposing a vertical restraint on the exporter, requiring the exporter to pay a quality premium to farmers. Combining internal records from two exporters, comprehensive administrative data, and the staggered rollout of a buyer-driven quality-upgrading program, we find empirical support for the key theoretical predictions. The results are consistent with the hypotheses that quality upgrading can provide a path to higher incomes for farmers, but also that it is unlikely to be viable under standard market conditions in the sector. |
| Keywords: | buyer-driven voluntary standards, vertical restraints, relational contracts, quality upgrading |
| JEL: | O12 F61 L23 Q12 Q13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18335 |
| By: | Juanita Bloomfield; Jose Maria Cabrera |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the long-term effects of receiving the Uruguayan Plan de Atención Nacional a la Emergencia Social (PANES), a large unconditional cash transfer program, on outcomes for young and unborn children. We use a rich dataset that matches program administrative data to vital natality data and educational records 8 to 12 years after the beginning of the program. Overall, we find small and barely significant effects on educational attainment and delay. Among children exposed to the program during early childhood (between ages zero to five), the results show significant beneficial effects for those with low birth weight. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2405 |
| By: | Nicolas Berman (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Mathieu Couttenier (ENS de Lyon, Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict, CNRS and CEPR); Raphael Soubeyran (CEE-M, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between culture and environmental conservation through the lens of deforestation. Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2001- 2021, we show that changes of national leaders affect deforestation in a way that depends on the environmental culture of their ethnic group’s. We use data on folklore to measure the importance of forests in group-specific culture. We find that deforestation and land-intensive activities increase in the ethnic homelands of leaders whose ethnic groups have no or little forest-related culture. These patterns are reversed when the leader’s group has a salient forest culture. Our results suggest that culture is an important lever for environmental conservation in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Culture, Deforestation, Politics, Folklore, ethnicity, Africa |
| JEL: | Z1 Q5 D7 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2537 |
| By: | Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.; Xu, Yingchen |
| Abstract: | Smallholder farmers often lack documented land rights to serve as collateral for formal loans, with livelihoods inextricably linked to weather conditions. Resulting credit and risk constraints prevent them from investing in their farms. We implemented a randomized evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative credit scoring approach that uses remote sensing to unlock credit and insurance for smallholders including landless farmers in Odisha, a state in eastern India. In our treatment group, where we offered KhetScore loans and insurance, farmers - and especially women - were more likely to be insured and borrow from formal sources without substituting formal for informal loans. Despite increased borrowing, treated households faced less difficulty in repaying loans, suggesting that insured KhetScore loans transferred risk and eased the burden of repayment. Moreover, the treatment enhanced agricultural profitability by increasing revenues during the monsoon season and reducing costs in the dry season. Positive and significant effects are found among both farmers with unconstrained baseline credit access, and quantity rationed farmers, suggesting that KhetScore helps address supply-side credit constraints. Finally, the treatment significantly enhanced women’s empowerment and mental health. In conclusion, remote sensing-enabled financial products can substantially improve landless farmers’ access to agricultural credit, risk management, resilience, and well-being. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360986 |
| By: | Alem, Yonas (University of Cape Town); Woldemichael, Leulseged L. (Addis Ababa University) |
| Abstract: | We use nationally representative panel data from rural areas and small towns in Ethiopia, matched with fine‑resolution weather data, to investigate the impact of drought on energy poverty. Energy poverty is measured using the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI) and a multidimensional poverty status indicator. Fixed‑effects regression estimates show that experiencing drought in the previous production year increases a household’s MEPI score by 0.019 points and raises the probability of being multidimensionally energy poor by 3.8%. We further demonstrate that the primary pathway through which drought affects energy poverty is through its adverse effect on per‑capita income: experiencing drought in the previous production period reduces per‑capita income by 33.7%. In contrast, we find that the energy poverty of households participating in Ethiopia’s major safety‑net intervention—the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)—is not significantly affected by drought, suggesting that the program effectively buffers participants from these shocks. Overall, our findings contribute to the growing literature on the economic costs of drought and underscore the critical role of well‑targeted safety‑net programs in mitigating climate‑related vulnerabilities. |
| Keywords: | Income shock; Energy Poverty; Ethiopia |
| JEL: | I32 O13 Q40 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2025_014 |