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on Development |
| By: | Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou; Tanner Regan |
| Abstract: | Satellite images of nighttime lights are commonly used to proxy local economic conditions. Despite their popularity, there are concerns about how accurately they capture local development in different settings and scales. We compile an annual series of comparable nighttime lights globally from 1992 to 2023 by applying adjustments that consider key factors affecting accuracy and comparability over time: top coding, blooming, and variations in satellite systems (DMSP and VIIRS). Applied to various low-income settings, the adjusted luminosity series outperforms the unadjusted series as a predictor of local development, particularly over time and at higher spatial resolutions. |
| Keywords: | Night Lights, Economic Development, Measurement, Africa. |
| JEL: | O1 R1 E01 I32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2507 |
| By: | Suteau, Margaux |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of household socio-economic characteristics in shaping responses to policy interventions when traditional norms are strong, focusing on the impact of land inheritance amendments on women’s empowerment in India. Leveraging changes to the Hindu Succession Act, which granted women the right to inherit ancestral property, and a simple conceptual framework with testable prediction, I show that the diverging results that can be found in the literature about the amendments can be explained by the heterogeneous responses to such policy changes. Using representative survey data, I find that the amendments positively affected education, especially among women from rural, landowning households with smaller plots of land. These women also experienced improved marriage market outcomes. The impact on female labor force participation varied across the socioeconomic spectrum, with more educated women showing increased participation in higher-paying jobs, while less educated women in rural areas either left the workforce or transitioned to less demanding occupations. This research contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of policy responses, highlighting the importance of considering the interplay between cultural practices, household characteristics, and socioeconomic factors in policy design and implementation, especially in contexts of high inequality. |
| Keywords: | Hindu succession act; education; female labor force participation; marriage market; India |
| JEL: | J16 I20 J12 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130362 |
| By: | Elan Satriawan (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Esa Azali Asyahid (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Wisnu Setiadi Nugroho (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Rimawan Pradiptyo (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Ranjan Shrestha (Department of Economics, College of Arts and Sciences, The College of William & Mary) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of temperature on labor productivity in Indonesian household-based enterprises. We combine data on micro and small enterprises from the Indonesian Family Life Survey with historical temperature data to estimate the effect of an increase in temperature on labor productivity, proxied by revenue per worker. Our empirical strategy relies on plausibly exogenous temporal variations in temperature within each geographic area. The results indicate that holding an enterprise’s production function fixed, a 1 °C increase in the 12-month average temperature reduces revenue per worker by 16%. Additional analyses using deviations from long-term monthly average temperatures, which reduce seasonality concerns, yield similar results, as year-month fixed effects are already incorporated. The findings highlight the significant impact of temperature changes on labor productivity in vulnerable economic sectors, emphasizing the need for targeted policies to enhance climate resilience in Indonesia's household-based enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Indonesia, Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), Micro and Small Household-based Enterprises |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gme:wpaper:202507007 |
| By: | Lina Agustina Pujiwati (Doctoral Program of Population Science, The Graduate School of Universitas Gadjah Mada); Zainal Fatoni (Doctoral Program of Population Science, The Graduate School of Universitas Gadjah Mada) |
| Abstract: | Multidimensional poverty is one of the biggest challenges faced by many countries around the world, including Indonesia, while gender equality is the fifth goal of the Sustainable Development Goals. By analyzing raw data from the March 2022 National Socio-Economic Survey, this study utilizes the Alkire-Foster method to analyze multidimensional poverty based on provincial disparities as well as its decomposition and determinants from a gender perspective. Binary logistic regression analysis is used to determine how socio-economic characteristics influence multidimensional poverty. Our findings indicate that the eastern region of Indonesia has worse conditions compared to other regions. Decomposition analysis shows that the largest contribution of multidimensional poverty is health dimension. Female-headed households are 1.19 times more likely to be multidimensionally poor than male-headed ones. Education, rural/urban, and household size are significant determinants of female-headed households being multidimensionally poor. The results provide insights to policymakers to consider formulating gender-sensitive poverty alleviation policies. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional poverty, gender, household, disparity, decomposition, determinant |
| JEL: | D63 I32 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gme:wpaper:202503002 |
| By: | Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou |
| Abstract: | Landmines affect the lives of millions in many conflict-ridden communities long after the end of hostilities. However, there is little research on the role of demining. We examine the economic consequences of landmine removal in Mozambique, the only country to transition from heavily contaminated in 1992 to mine-free in 2015. First, we present the self-assembled georeferenced catalog of areas suspected of contamination, along with a detailed record of demining operations. Second, the event-study analysis reveals a robust association between demining activities and subsequent local economic performance, reflected in luminosity. Economic activity does not pick up in the years leading up to clearance, nor does it increase when operators investigate areas mistakenly marked as contaminated in prior surveys. Third, recognizing that landmine removal reshapes transportation access, we use a market-access approach to explore direct and indirect effects. To advance on identification, we isolate changes in market access caused by removing landmines in previously considered safe areas, far from earlier nationwide surveys. Fourth, policy simulations reveal the substantial economywide dividends of clearance, but only when factoring in market-access effects, which dwarf direct productivity links. Additionally, policy counterfactuals uncover significant aggregate costs when demining does not prioritize the unblocking of transportation routes. These results offer insights into the design of demining programs in Ukraine and elsewhere, highlighting the need for centralized coordination and prioritization of areas facilitating commerce. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Development, History, Conflict, Landmines, Market Access, Transportation Infrastructure. |
| JEL: | N47 N77 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2506 |
| By: | Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía; Luz A. Florez; Didier Hermida; Francisco Lasso-Valderrama; Leonardo Fabio Morales; José Pulido |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of payroll subsidies targeting SMEs on labor market formalization in developing economies, where informal labor markets are prevalent. Our evidence is based on a payroll subsidy program in Colombia (PAEF-stage 2) targeting firms under 50 employees that subsidized up to 50% of the payroll. We exploit detailed administrative records, as well as the discontinuity in the eligibility threshold and the timing of the program implementation to estimate the causal effect of the program. Our findings indicate that the subsidy had a positive and persistent effect on formal employment. The impact is larger for industries receiving more subsidies but does not vary across employees’ gender. Cost-benefit analysis shows that the program was financially sustainable, with internal rates of return ranging from 58% to 169%. *****RESUMEN: En este trabajo se analiza el impacto de los subsidios a la nómina dirigidos a pequeñas y medianas empresas sobre la formalización laboral en una economía en desarrollo, donde los mercados laborales informales son predominantes. Nuestra evidencia se basa en la segunda fase del Programa de Apoyo al Empleo Formal (PAEF) en Colombia, que otorgó subsidios de hasta el 50% de la nómina a empresas con menos de 50 empleados. Se usan registros administrativos detallados, así como la discontinuidad en el umbral de elegibilidad y el momento de implementación del programa, para estimar su efecto causal. Los resultados indican que el subsidio tuvo un efecto positivo y persistente sobre el empleo formal. El impacto fue mayor en los sectores que recibieron mayores montos de subsidio, pero no presentó variaciones según el género de los trabajadores. El análisis costo-beneficio muestra que el programa fue financieramente sostenible, con tasas internas de retorno que oscilan entre el 58% y el 169%. |
| Keywords: | Payroll subsidies, small and medium enterprises, informality, developing economies, Subsidios a la nómina, pequeñas y medianas empresas, informalidad, economías en desarrollo |
| JEL: | J68 J38 J23 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1338 |
| By: | Benston John (St. Stephen’s College, Delhi & Doctoral Candidate, Delhi School of Economics); E. Somanathan (Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi, India); Rohini Somanathan (Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi) |
| Abstract: | Cool roof technologies, especially cool roof paint, offer a low-cost, easily scalable, and low-emission alternative to energy-intensive air-conditioning for reducing heat exposure in buildings - an increasingly urgent need in developing countries facing rising temperatures due to climate change. We evaluate the effectiveness of a cool roof intervention - white reflective paint applied to the roofs of government pre-schools (anganwadis) in Thiruvananthapuram district of the Indian state of Kerala—using a randomized controlled trial. The cool roof paint reduces indoor temperatures in treated pre-schools by approximately 1.3?C. Staff in treatment pre-schools report significantly lower thermal discomfort. We also find meaningful improvements in children’s cognitive performance, amounting to roughly 6.4% of the baseline mean. The intervention has no detectable effect on children’s attendance. Overall, our findings demonstrate that cool roofs can serve as a practical and scalable adaptation strategy to mitigate heat stress in low-resource educational settings. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation to Heat, RCT, Pre-schools, Temperature, Thermal comfort, Cognitive performance, Learning outcome, India JEL codes: I21, I25, Q54, Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:358 |
| By: | Yasmin (Department of Sharia Economics, Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, Islamic State University (UIN) Sunan Kalijaga); Muhammad Ali Mustofa (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Amirullah Setya Hardi (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada) |
| Abstract: | The nexus between financial inclusion, income inequality, and poverty remains debated, especially in developing economies with diverse regional contexts. This study examines the impact of financial inclusion on inequality and poverty across 33 Indonesian provinces using panel data. We estimate Fixed-Effects and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models to address unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity. Financial inclusion is proxied by deposits per capita, while key outcomes are provincial income inequality and poverty rates. Results show a significant negative association between financial inclusion and both inequality and poverty. Regional heterogeneity is evident: the poverty-reducing effects of financial inclusion are stronger in Eastern Indonesia than in the more developed Western region. These findings highlight the need for region-specific policies that expand affordable financial access, strengthen financial literacy, and deepen financing for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to support inclusive growth. Future research should assess the roles of fintech and Islamic finance, evaluate how financial inclusion shapes MSME performance, and rigorously examine the effectiveness of Indonesia’s National Strategy for Financial Inclusion to inform progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. |
| Keywords: | Financial Inclusion, Income Inequality, Poverty, Fixed-Effect Model, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) |
| JEL: | G20 D63 I32 C23 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gme:wpaper:202503005 |
| By: | Iacopo Maria Taddei; Giorgia Giovannetti |
| Abstract: | Industrial indicators display an inverted U-shaped relationship with income levels across both developed and developing economies. However, there is growing evidence that the deindustrialization process is accelerating in less developed countries, giving rise to the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization. This process has been shown to be one of the main drivers of growth slowdowns, particularly in middle-income economies, preventing countries from catching up and leaving them trapped in the so-called middle-income trap. Some East Asian countries, such as South Korea and Taiwan, have nevertheless managed to avoid this outcome by engaging non-linearly in global value chains, following a pattern often referred to as the ‘in–out–in again’ hypothesis. This paper provides an empirical assessment of how this alternative industrialization pathway can shield economies from the risk of premature deindustrialization, sustaining growth in middle-income countries. Using a panel of 47 emerging and developing economies over the period 1995–2020, we examine how this discontinuous engagement in global trade affects manufacturing employment and output shares, as well as countries’ capacity to move up the value chain and export more complex products. Our findings suggest that the ‘in-out-in again’ global value chain insertion pattern has been an effective mechanism for avoiding the middle-income trap in East and South Asian economies, while offering little indication of its role in preventing premature deindustrialization. |
| Keywords: | Premature deindustrialization; middle-income trap; GVC; in-out-in again. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:752 |
| By: | Giorgio Chiovelli; Leopoldo Fergusson; Luis R. Martínez; Juan David Torres; Felipe Valencia Caicedo |
| Abstract: | We study the interplay between state modernization, extractive institutions, and political upheaval in the colonial world. Our analysis focuses on the introduction of a new corps of governors called intendants, overseeing a new set of intermediate administrative units called intendancies, throughout Spain’s American empire during the late 18th century. Leveraging granular microdata and the staggered adoption of the reform, we show that the intendancy system alleviated agency problems and led to improvements in state capacity along four key dimensions: (i) greater state presence in peripheral areas; (ii) higher fiscal revenue; (iii) production of new cartographic information; and (iv) reduced incidence of Indigenous conflict. However, additional evidence based on naming patterns, a catalog of letters, and biographies of notable individuals, indicates that the reform also led to heightened anti-Spanish sentiment amonglocal elites, who saw their economic privileges curtailed, and bolstered Latin America’s nascent independence movement in the early 19th century. |
| Keywords: | State Capacity, Taxation, Bureaucracy, Conflict, Elites, Colonialism, Independence, Latin America |
| JEL: | D73 D74 H71 N46 P48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2504 |
| By: | Gwee, Yi Jie |
| Abstract: | Although many studies have examined the factors affecting structural transformation, the role of relative factor endowments has not been extensively explored. This paper examines the effects of the introduction of Bt cotton in India and finds substantial increases in cotton output and the land allocated to growing it. The effects diminish as the ratio of labor-to-land increases. This suggests that when inputs are complementary and technological change is labor augmenting, the relative scarcity of other inputs can limit productivity gains, shaping patterns of structural transformation. Despite increases in cotton land and output, the share of workers in agriculture remained unchanged. |
| Date: | 2025–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11275 |
| By: | Muhammad Sifaudin (Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University of Salatiga); Diyah Ariyani (Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University of Salatiga); Nur Ayiyah (Faculty of Economics and Business, Semarang State University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the role of zakat utilization in enhancing food security and alleviating poverty in Indonesia from 2018 to 2024, with a specific focus on its contributions to the agricultural sector. Grounded in the legal framework provided by Law Number 23 of 2011 and Government Regulation Number 14 of 2014, which authorize zakat institutions such as the government, corporations and non-government organization to allocate zakat funds productively to critical sectors, this research addresses the pressing issue of poverty and food insecurity in Indonesia. As of 2024, approximately 9.03% of Indonesia’s population lives below the poverty line, with rural areas experiencing particularly high levels of food insecurity. Utilizing secondary data from BAZNAS, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and 385 farmers receiving zakat responding to a semi-structured questionnaire, this study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative analyses. Descriptive statistics, inferential statistics (NVIVO), and logistic regression analysis are used to examine the Food Security and Poverty indices. The findings reveal that effective management of zakat funds has the potential to reduce economic disparities and improve the livelihoods of impoverished farmers in rural areas. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that zakat allocations directed toward the agricultural sector can significantly enhance productivity and contribute to sustainable food security in the long term. These results underscore the importance of strategic zakat distribution as a tool for poverty alleviation and agricultural development in Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | Zakat, agricultural production, food security, poverty alleviation, Indonesia. |
| JEL: | Q18 I32 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gme:wpaper:202503004 |
| By: | Mohite, Manasi Sandeep; Gaikwad, Rahul Shashikant (Investments Key Limited, Canary Wharf, UK) |
| Abstract: | India’s socio-economic transformation represents an emancipatory project whose achievements, though significant, remain structurally circumscribed. Constitutional equality, affirmative action, and the expansion of public education weakened entrenched forms of exclusion and enabled segments of historically marginalised communities to attain limited upward mobility, securing entry into formal employment and the lower middle strata. Yet this advancement has not culminated in durable economic elevation or meaningful access to elite positions, exposing a persistent disjunction between juridical liberation and substantive class mobility. This paper interrogates the paradox of chains broken yet ladders blocked by examining the structural constraints that impede progression beyond the middle tiers. Drawing upon economic and sociological perspectives, it demonstrates how asymmetries in access to land, financial capital, elite educational institutions, and influential social networks continue to govern patterns of wealth accumulation and occupational stratification across generations. It further contends that post-liberalisation growth, while expansive in aggregate terms, has recalibrated inequality by disproportionately valorising inherited assets and entrenched forms of cultural capital. The study concludes that India’s development must be assessed not merely through growth metrics but through its capacity to institutionalise inclusive and intergenerational mobility. Keywords: Caste inequality; Intergenerational mobility; Marginalized communities; Social stratification; Economic liberalization. JEL Classification: J15; D63; O15; O53; Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hp5tn_v1 |
| By: | Brown, Caitlin (Georgetown University); Tommasi, Denni (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | We study quality upgrading in informal markets through two experiments with street-food vendors and consumers in India. First, we define quality in terms of food safety and develop a context-specific measurement framework. Second, we show that consumers are willing to pay substantial premiums for cleanliness. Third, we implement a vendor-level intervention that lowers upgrading costs and enhances the ability to signal quality through sanitation-related equipment. The intervention improves food-safety practices and profits, but effects are modest and fade over time. Fixed pricing norms and local environmental constraints appear central, consistent with a moral hazard model where cleanliness is not profitable. |
| Keywords: | hygiene practices, consumer preferences, randomized experiment, food safety, informal markets, street food, quality upgrading, moral hazard, subsidy effectiveness, signaling, developing countries |
| JEL: | D82 I18 L15 L31 O12 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18328 |
| By: | Mukasa, Stanley; Ngobi, Dennis; Sangwa, Sixbert |
| Abstract: | Purpose: This study interrogates the paradox of employer-reported “labour shortages” in labour-abundant African economies. It advances the claim that shortage signals are partly institutional outputs: they arise when screening rules narrow the effective labour pool, rather than reflecting exogenous skill scarcity. Design/methodology/approach: Drawing on labour market segmentation, information economics, and critical institutionalism, we analyse 10, 432 job advertisements scraped monthly (January 2024–June 2025) from leading portals in seven Anglophone African countries. A rigorously validated support-vector-machine classifier distinguishes explicit numeric age ceilings from implicit youth-coded cues to construct an Age-Coded Hiring Index (ACHI). We triangulate ACHI with employer-reported workforce-constraint indicators from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys and labour-underutilisation (LU4) from ILOSTAT, estimating fixed-effects and interaction models to test whether age-coded screening predicts shortage complaints most strongly where latent labour supply is greatest. Findings: Age-coded screening is pervasive in vacancy texts: approximately 15–20% of postings impose numeric age caps and a much larger share deploys implicit youth signals. Higher ACHI is robustly associated with stronger shortage complaints net of underutilisation and macro controls, and the relationship steepens under high labour slack, consistent with an institutional mechanism in which screening rules convert latent labour supply into perceived scarcity. Originality/value: Conceptually, the paper reframes “shortage” indicators as partially endogenous to screening rules and to employers’ definition of “suitability, ” rather than treating them as market facts. Empirically, it introduces a replicable NLP-based measure of exclusionary screening from vacancy text, enabling cross-country tests of institutional scarcity dynamics in low- and middle-income contexts. Practical implications: The results imply that diagnostic and policy responses to “shortages” should not presume supply failure alone; they should also examine how recruitment criteria restrict the recognised labour pool and thereby shape shortage measurement itself. |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cswf6_v1 |
| By: | Martín Finkelstein (Harvard Kennedy School) |
| Abstract: | Using the 2017 Mexican Social Mobility Survey (ESRU-EMOVI 2017), this study documents how family structure during upbringing is a key determinant of educational results. Individuals raised in two-parent households attain between 0.25 and 0.38 more years of education and show, on average, a two to three percentage point higher probability of completing higher education than their peers raised without one of their parents at home. An analysis of why individuals drop out of the education system indicates that differences in educational attainment may stem from a lack of opportunities. The evidence points to parental death as a significant contributor to this gap. Individuals who lose a parent during their formative years complete, on average, between 0.9 and 1 fewer years of education and are 3 to 5 percentage points less likely to complete higher education. The timing of parental death is critical: experiencing the loss of a parent during adolescence (between ages 13 and 18) is particularly detrimental to the likelihood of achieving key educational milestones. |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0362 |
| By: | Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou; Sandra Sequeira |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of conflict-driven displacement on human capital and occupational shifts, focusing on the Mozambican civil war (1977 - 1992), during which millions of civilians were forcibly displaced to the countryside, cities, and neighboring countries. Reconstructing the movements of the entire population during the civil war, we examine the consequences of multiple displacement trajectories within a unified framework. First, we characterize the education and sectoral employment of the universe of (non)displaced. Second, we exploit variation in displacement experiences among extended kin members during their school-going years to account for shared household characteristics. Displacement is associated with significant gains in education. Third, employing a “movers design, ” we show that minors displaced earlier to better districts experienced an increase in educational attainment. Focusing on moves during the intensification of the war and when comparing members of the same household, regional childhood exposure effects remain strong, whereas spatial sorting vanishes. Fourth, we jointly estimate place-based, spatial sorting, and uprootedness effects, showing that all forces are at play. Fifth, a small survey in Mozambique’s largest north- ern city reveals long-term effects: internally displaced report higher education than their siblings who stayed behind, but lower social capital and worse mental health relative to locals. Our findings demonstrate that displacement shocks can foster human capital accumulation, even in very low-income settings, albeit at the cost of enduring social and psychological traumas. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnt:wpaper:2508 |
| By: | Sharofiddinov Husniddin (Scientific research Institute for hydraulic engineering and melioration “TajikNIIGiM†, Republic of Tajikistan); Moinul Islam (Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology); Yutaka Kobayashi (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Koji Kotani (Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Market uncertainty in agriculture has been suggested to influence farmers to allocate their lands and cultivate different crops each season, thus threatening food production. However, little is known about the effects of such uncertainty on farmers’ land-fragmentation decisions. We examine how input-price uncertainty affects land fragmentation along with crop diversification, considering that this uncertainty is approximated by an “input-price deviations, †i.e., a difference between the realized market price and the initial expectation of each farmer in a season. It is hypothesized that farm sizes matter in that small-size farms respond to the deviations in a contrasting way compared to large-size ones. Data were collected from a questionnaire survey of 800 Tajikistan farmers, enabling us to develop a new indicator for land fragmentation in addition to a Simpson indicator for crop diversification. Econometric analyses highlight the importance of farm sizes, demonstrating that medium- and small-size farms adjust their land allocation by fragmenting (consolidating) lands for diversifying (specializing) crops against positive (negative) input-price deviation. In contrast, large-size farms are less likely to fragment (consolidate) their lands and display the opposite pattern for diversification in response to input-price deviations. Overall, input-price deviations and the interactions with farm sizes are keys not only in land allocation for agriculture, but also in causing substantial fluctuations for crop productions — consistent with the observed patterns in Tajikistan. Thus, implementing price ceilings or subsidies for agricultural inputs should be considered to mitigate land fragmentation for stable and sustainable food production, as a majority of farms are not large-sized. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2025-12 |