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on Development |
| By: | Erik Andres-Escayola (UNIVERSITY OF ALICANTE); Luis Molina (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Javier J. Pérez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Elena Vidal (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | Latin America’s growth has been hindered by institutional instability and volatile economic policies, often driven by political cycles. These shifts generate uncertainty that deters investment and disrupts productivity. We analyze this phenomenon using Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) indices, assessing their impact on domestic macroeconomic variables via regional spillovers - spurred by regional proximity - and also considering the global transmission of EPU shocks to key trade and financial partners. To do so, we assemble a comprehensive and comparable database of EPU indices for the region: first, we construct new indices for Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, and second, we update the ones available in other papers for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru using a comparable methodology. Our results show that: (i) regional EPU shocks reduce regional GDP growth, deter capital inflows and spark exchange rate instability; (ii) Brazil and Mexico are key sources of uncertainty spillovers within the region; and (iii) EPU shocks in Latin America affect financial and real variables in major partner economies, with Spain being particularly exposed. |
| Keywords: | economic policy uncertainty, textual analysis, Latin America, spillovers |
| JEL: | C43 D80 E32 O11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2549 |
| By: | Limosani, Michele; Millemaci, Emanuele; Monteforte, Fabio; Mustica, Paolo Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether Special Economic Zones (SEZs) effectively foster em- ployment through a comprehensive meta-analysis. While numerous country-level studies have examined SEZ policies, their results remain fragmented and potentially biased by methodological and publication-related factors. To address this gap, we compile a meta- regression dataset of 851 estimates from 33 empirical studies that quantify the impact of SEZs on employment. Once corrected for publication bias, the average effect of SEZ programs on employment approaches zero. However, heterogeneous results emerge across different development contexts, with developing countries recording significant employ- ment gains compared to their developed counterparts. |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mf2n6_v2 |
| By: | Raul Caruso (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Emma Galli (Department of Social and Economic Science, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy); Giulia Tringali (Sapienza University of Rome, Italy - International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the relationship between corruption and political violence in 49 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1970-2020. Specifically, it examines whether corruption influences both the incidence and the brutality of political violence. To address this question, the study employs an articulated estimation strategy: first, we analyze the impact of corruption on political violence incidence and brutality by using count data models (Negbin and ZINB) and a LPM; then we also employ an IV estimation for the OLS model and a Two-stage Residual inclusion (2SRI) estimation. Across the different specifications, our findings highlight a strong and positive relation between political corruption and both the incidence and brutality of political violence. Control variables present the expected relations with the dependent variable and in particular, we also focus on climate change. By employing also interaction terms between SPEI and corruption, the results suggest that an increase in precipitations in corrupted countries leads to and increase of violence. In addition, our main results show that past corruption level has a great impact on today violence, while past extreme weather events do not. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Political Violence, Terrorism, Climate Change, Count Models, ZINB, 2SRI |
| JEL: | D73 D74 P00 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0053 |
| By: | Fuerst, John; Kirkegaard, Emil O. W. |
| Abstract: | We draw upon newly compiled subnational indicators from fifteen countries to revisit relationships between continental genetic ancestry, cognitive ability (CA), and socioeconomic outcomes (S) in the Americas. Across national and subnational analyses, West Eurasian ancestry, in contrast to Amerindian and African, correlates robustly and positively with CA and S. In models including country fixed effects a shift from 0% to 100% West Eurasian genetic ancestry corresponds to an estimated increase of approximately 1.0–1.3 in either CA or S in units of standard deviation. Models that include both country fixed effects and random slopes produce similar estimates. These associations remain stable when controlled for geoclimatic variables (e.g., annual temperature, precipitation, UV-radiation). Although the cross-sectional nature of the data precludes formal causal inference, the results are consistent with CA mediating roughly 50% of the association between West Eurasian ancestry and S. The findings provide additional support for the “deep roots” hypothesis that continental ancestry is systematically linked to regional variations in cognitive and socioeconomic outcomes across the Americas. |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vgfrb_v1 |
| By: | Matthew Collins; Eleonora Guarnieri; Helmut Rainer |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal impact of free primary education (FPE) on fertility decisions among parents in sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on the interplay between the policy, intra-household bargaining, and cultural norms. Using Demographic and Health Survey data and exploiting the staggered rollout of FPE across 17 countries, we find that FPE reduces fertility by 0.1 children per woman and improves child survival and school enrollment. Linking these data with ethnic-level cultural norms of male dominance, we find that these effects are concentrated among ethnic groups with low male dominance, while high male-dominance groups experience minimal or opposing effects. We further show that FPE strengthens women’s bargaining power in low male-dominance settings, as evidenced by increased contraceptive use, greater influence over reproductive decisions, and higher participation in household decision-making. These changes are accompanied by higher labor force participation, increased media engagement, a higher probability of divorce, and reduced tolerance for intimate partner violence. Such shifts are largely absent in high-male dominance cultures. These findings are consistent with a simple theoretical framework that integrates the canonical quantity–quality trade-off into a household bargaining model with limited commitment, where cultural norms are captured by the extent of women’s veto power over fertility decisions. Our results highlight the critical role of cultural norms in shaping the effects of policy interventions on fertility behavior and broader development outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/802 |
| By: | Manh-Duc Doan (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Suite 305 - 307, 12 Trang Thi Street, Hoan Kiem, Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting a quasi-natural experiment–the Vietnam-U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA)–I investigate the impact of trade liberalization on children's human capital investment in Vietnam. Using regional variation in export tariff uncertainty due to the BTA, I find that children in provinces more exposed to tariff reductions were more likely to engage in work rather than attend school, and this effect persisted for 20 years after the BTA. Additionally, the effects were more pronounced among boys, older children, rural children, and those with less-educated parents. These negative effects are driven by the increase in job opportunities, i.e., the child labor incidence, and the wage premium in the higher exposure provinces. The findings indicate that trade liberalization has increased the opportunity cost of education. These results remain robust across various alternative estimations. |
| Keywords: | trade agreement, tariff reduction, schooling, child labor, Vietnam |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J24 O12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0197 |
| By: | Wannaphong Durongkaveroj; Riswandi Riswandi |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, cash transfers have played an important role in enhancing social protection in developing countries. This paper examines the causal effects of Thailand's large-scale unconditional cash transfer programme (“the state welfare card programme”) that covered over 20 percent of the country's population. Using regression discontinuity methods and nationally representative household socio-economic surveys, the results suggest that this programme had a negative and statistically significant impact on total expenditure and food expenditure. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Cash transfers, Social protection, Thailand |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-103 |
| By: | Srinivas Goli; Nandeen Bhattacharyya; Shalem Balla; Harchand Ram |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the adverse impact of different types of conflicts on child mortality and its mechanisms across a large group of countries. Our analysis pools data from multiple countries and time-points, to provide robust evidence on the relationship between conflict and child health. Geo-referenced data on different types of conflict are linked with the unit level information from Demographic Health Survey datasets, to construct a unique database of 943139 pre-school age children across 52 developing countries over the period 1993-2018. Our analysis exploits the within-country differences in children’s exposure to conflict from in utero to age 5, to estimate its association with mortality outcomes. Our baseline estimate shows the association between conflict exposure and childhood mortality where we found excess mortality in children exposed to conflict. The Cox proportional hazard regression model estimates show that even after controlling for an extensive array of socio-economic and demographic characteristics time and entity-fixed effects, conflict exposure is associated with excess child mortality, across all our measures of conflict. Additional analyses show that probability of dying in the childhood increases with increasing the intensity of exposure to conflict events. Proximate mechanisms explaining excess mortality in children exposed to conflict include poor maternal health outcomes (ANC and Institutional delivery care), child health outcomes (height-for-age and weight-for-age z-scores), and immunization status. These findings are robust across alternative measures of conflict, and sub-samples. Our main findings sustain even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and migration history. |
| Keywords: | child mortality, child nutrition, conflict, immunization, maternal health care, multi-country analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:446 |
| By: | Julieta Pérez Amador; Adriana Robles |
| Abstract: | Cohabitation and marriage have coexisted in Latin America since the times of colonization. The level of cohabitation, however, has varied across and within countries. Traditionally, these unions were most common among population groups characterized by having lower socioeconomic status. However, beginning in the 1970s but to a much larger extent during the 1990s cohabitation arose in countries with and without traditional forms of cohabitation, and across different social strata. Comparative studies in the region have considered the effects of socioeconomic variables on the probability of cohabiting to be constant across cohorts, even though correlates of cohabitation have undergone important transformations during the period of cohabitation expansion. In this paper, using data from the Luxembourg Income Study Dataset, we challenge this assumption using harmonized Latin American data and regression methods to analyze within- and between-country cohort variation in the effects of income differentials on the probability of cohabiting, assessing to what extent this relationship varies across countries and to what extent it can be explained by other demographic variables. We aim to contribute to the understanding of the continuity and change in Latin American cohabitation and of the role it plays within the larger society and its stratification. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:905 |
| By: | Okumu, Boscow (Environment for Development (EfD) Centre, School of Economics, University of Nairobi, Kenya.); Tibanywana, Julieth (School of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania); Ntiyakunze, Matilda (Institute of Human Settlements Studies, Ardhi University, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania); Oyarzo, Mauricio (Environment for Development, Campus Chillán, University of Concepción, Chile) |
| Abstract: | Mangrove forests provide a myriad of ecosystem services and play a significant role in carbon sequestration, storing up to five times more carbon per hectare than terrestrial forests. Despite their significance, mangrove forests are increasingly threatened by the effects of climate change and anthropogenic factors. However, the ecological and economic roles that they play have hardly been explored. This study examines a unique pilot carbon trading scheme implemented in Kwale County on the Kenyan coast. Specifically, the study seeks to determine the overall and gender-disaggregated effects of the scheme on household welfare and ecosystem services. Using the endogenous switching regression (ESR) model, the results reveal that participants in the carbon trading scheme have above-average per capita monthly expenditure, food security and value of fish harvest whether they participate in the scheme or not but are better off participating in the scheme. Significant gender differences in the effect of the scheme are also noted, with female-headed participating households more food secure, while male-headed participating households experience a higher value of fish harvest. In addition, the results reveal that participation in carbon trading schemes increases welfare in both female-headed and male-headed households, but the effect is higher for non-participants than participants. Policy implications are also highlighted. |
| Keywords: | Mangrove; carbon trading; welfare; ecosystem services. |
| JEL: | I30 Q20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2025_013 |
| By: | Vladimir Hlasny |
| Abstract: | Since 2012 Mali has witnessed a metamorphosing civil war along geographic, ethnic, religious and economic lines. Distributional analysis using growth incidence curves and quantile-regression decompositions, applied to microdata of the annual 2011–2020 Modular and Permanent Household Survey, points to differences in the fortunes of conflict-affected versus comparator socio-demographic groups, between the rich and the poor, as well as across different phases in the long-running and mutating conflict. The parts of the country that were contemporaneously decimated by conflict were found to experience general reductions in incomes, particularly among the bottom income deciles, but also increases in the dispersion of incomes at the top, signaling structural shifts among the elites with respect to political allegiances and control over resources. These findings shed light on the theorized incidence of the brunt of conflict, and on strategies for alleviating suffering and safeguarding equity through tailoring of social protection, human empowerment, transparent rules-based governance, and conflict conciliation. |
| JEL: | D74 D31 D63 N37 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:907 |