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on Development |
| By: | Abebe, Meseret B. (Addis Ababa University); Alem, Yonas (University of Cape Town and University of Gothenburg) |
| Abstract: | Extensive previous literature documents that poor households in developing countries reduce food consumption (i.e., calorie intake) in response to a major covariate shock, such as drought. We utilize rich panel data from rural Ethiopia to demonstrate that drought increases calorie consumption and reduces the diversity of households’ diets. We show that a one-standard-deviation decrease in the previous year’s rainfall increases per capita calorie consumption by approximately 5.5%. The key pathway through which drought affects calorie consumption is through households substituting relatively expensive food items (e.g., fruits, vegetables, and pulses) with cheaper alternatives (e.g., grains) and reallocating resources from other basic expenditures, such as health and education, to food consumption. Consistent with this mechanism, we show that a one-standard-deviation decrease in lagged rainfall reduces the household diet diversity score by about 3.1%. Heterogeneous analysis by consumption quartile suggests that households in the highest consumption quartile drive increased calorie consumption in response to drought. We find similar results for urban households who increase their calorie consumption in response to a food price shock. Our findings have important implications for weather forecasts and safety net interventions. |
| Keywords: | Drought; Nutrition; Food Security; Food Inflation |
| JEL: | D12 O13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2025_007 |
| By: | Matias Ciaschi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Guillermo Falcone (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Santiago Garganta (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Octavio Bertín (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Lucía Ramirez-Leira (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices—the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the ComplementarityAdjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AIGenerated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)—to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first-order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI-related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies. |
| JEL: | O33 J21 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0361 |
| By: | Tilman Brück; Mahlet Degefu Awoke |
| Abstract: | Climate and conflict crises increasingly occur together, creating compounded risks for household food security. This review synthesizes evidence from 37 quantitative studies published 2020–2025 on how climate crises (such as drought, storms, or floods), violent conflict (such as war and institutional fragility), and their interactions affect household food security. Most studies examine either climate crises (51%) or conflict crises (38%), while only 11% analyze combined crises. Evidence is geographically concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa (65%) and relies largely on cross-sectional surveys (68%), limiting insight into longer-term trajectories. Climate crises are measured mainly using meteorological or remote-sensing datasets (42%) while conflict exposure relies predominantly on self-reported data (71%). Only a small number of studies integrate geocoded climate or political violence datasets with household surveys, and few studies estimate interaction or spillover effects. Food security measurement is also narrow, with most studies using access and utilization indicators such as the food consumption score (FCS) (43%), household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS) (35%), or household dietary diversity score (HDDS) (19%). Across studies, climate crises, conflict, and their concurrence are associated with reduced consumption, lower dietary diversity, and greater coping burdens. Impacts vary by household assets, agroecology, and institutional or humanitarian support, highlighting the need for longitudinal and spatially or contextually explicit evidence measuring productive resilience rather than only short-term consumption smoothing.Download supplementary file for this working paper. |
| Keywords: | climate crises, compound crises, household food security, systematic review, violent conflict |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:445 |
| By: | Kumar, Praveen (Ashoka University); Gupta, Eshita (KPMG, Gurugram, India); Karumba, Mary (Dept. of Economic Planning and Statistics, Govt of Kenya); Beyene, Abebe Damte (Environment and Climate Research Center, Ethiopia); Chukwuone, Nnaemeka (University of Nigeria - Nsukka); Jeuland, Marc (Duke University); Somanathan, E. (Indian Statistical Institute Delhi) |
| Abstract: | Cooking, a ubiquitous household activity, presents a significant opportunity for energy transition. This study focuses on the transition to the understudied and under-adopted—despite high electricity access— practice of electric cooking as a clean solution by examining both demand and supply factors. Using nationally representative data from India, Nepal, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, we highlight the role of electricity reliability as a central determinant of electric cooking adoption. Reliability consistently shows a strong positive association with adoption in India, Nepal, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, underscoring that access alone is insufficient without dependable supply. Alongside reliability, household expenditure, urban location, and education also emerge as important correlates. Qualitative evidence further reveals that while electric cooking is valued for its speed and convenience, it is predominantly used in a stacked manner and faces several barriers—poor and unreliable electricity quality, inadequate household electrical wiring and infrastructure, high upfront appliance costs, limited appliance durability, and lack of local repair services— that inhibit greater use of this fuel. These findings can be valuable for further research, data collection, and government policies to effectively scale electric cooking |
| Keywords: | Electricity Reliability; Household air pollution; Energy Transition; Electric Cooking; Clean Cooking |
| JEL: | O12 O13 O18 Q40 Q48 Q55 |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2025_010 |
| By: | Chiara Falco (Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milano); Valentina Raimondi (Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milano) |
| Abstract: | In Brazil, hydropower generates more than 60% of the national electricity supply, placing the country among the most hydropower-dependent economies worldwide. This study analyses the causal impact of dam construction on forest loss in Brazil using a new municipality-level panel dataset covering 379 dams, combined with high-resolution satellite data on forest coverage, among other variables. Applying modern staggered difference-indifferences estimators and a dynamic event study, we find that dams reduce forest cover by almost 9% percent in the municipality. No anticipatory effects are detected, but postconstruction losses increase steadily over time. Mechanism show that forest loss occurs mainly through cropland expansion, with smaller increases in pasture and higher agricultural value added. Effects are concentrated in the North and North-East regions, amplified in municipalities with high public land shares and unequal land distribution, consistent with persistent institutional legacies. Our results highlight that while hydropower enhances energy security, it entails substantial environmental costs requiring stronger land governance. |
| Keywords: | Hydropower dam, forest loss, land use change, institutions |
| JEL: | Q56 Q15 O13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.29 |
| By: | David Raitzer (Asian Development Bank); Rita Abdel Sater (Agence Française de Développement); Odbayar Batmunkh (Asian Development Bank); Julia Girard (Agence Française de Développement); Lennart Reiners (Asian Development Bank); Amir Jilani (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We present the findings of a pilot that randomized provision of structured electronic food vouchers to poor households in the Philippines, which was designed to inform a new national food voucher program. The study utilized a matched pair cluster-randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of vouchers plus nutrition education sessions. It involved 4, 883 poor households across five provinces, randomly assigned to the control group or to receive nutrition education and monthly electronic food vouchers worth PHP3, 000 ($55) with pre-allocated shares for different food groups. After 6 months, statistically significant improvements are found in household food expenditure, dietary diversity, and food security, although the dietary and food security effects are modest on average. Food expenditure responses to voucher allocations are strongest for proteins and for fruits and vegetables, whereas the carbohydrate allocations are more fungible. Notably, dietary effects are more pronounced in highly urban areas, in households enrolled in an existing conditional cash transfer program, in those with better nutrition knowledge at baseline, in smaller-sized households, and in those that had more recently redeemed the voucher. This suggests that effectiveness could be enhanced by adjusting voucher allocation ratios towards underconsumed food groups, increasing the voucher amount, increasing redemption frequency, and improving nutrition education. |
| Keywords: | food assistance;electronic food vouchers;nutrition;social protection |
| JEL: | I12 I18 H23 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021825 |
| By: | Gebreegziabher, Zenebe (Department of Economics Mekelle University, Mekelle, Tigrai, Ethiopia); Beyene, Abebe D. (Environment and Climate Research Center (ECRC), Policy Studies Institute (PSI), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia); Bluffstone, Randall (Department of Economics, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA); Gebremedhin, Berhanu (University of Dallas, Irving, Texas, USA); Mekonnen, Alemu (Department of Economics, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia) |
| Abstract: | This research aims to evaluate the role that devolution of forest tenure rights plays in the sustainable management of forests in developing countries at a highly disaggregated level, using data from a sample of 600 households in four major regions of Ethiopia. Specifically, the study investigates the impacts of the devolution of forest tenure rights towards local communities on forest quality and livelihoods empirically, employing a quasi-experimental approach comparing households that are members of forest user groups (FUGs) and households that are not. The study uses four outcome variables as measurable indicators to empirically analyze the impacts of the devolution and its contributions to improvements in the livelihoods of forest dwellers. The results suggest that FUGs had a robust and positive impact on the harvest of various forest products. These findings contribute to the literature on devolution and highlight implications for research, policy, and development practice with respect to forest commons. |
| Keywords: | institutions; common property forest management; matching; inverse probability weights; Ethiopia |
| JEL: | Q23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2025_006 |
| By: | Betti, Gianni (University of Siena); Crescenzi, Federico (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)); Dang, Hai-Anh H (World Bank); Molini, Vasco (World Bank); Mori, Lorenzo (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | Measuring inequality in West Africa is a challenging task that is constrained by the limited availability and irregular collection of household consumption data. To address this challenge, we reconstructed the evolution of inequality in the Sahel region using an innovative framework that combines Survey-to-Survey Imputation Techniques (SSITs) with Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS), based on labour force surveys conducted in eight countries between 2003 and 2021. The findings highlight pronounced regional disparities, persistent levels of inequality, and a clear association between inequality patterns and episodes of conflict or political instability. Our contribution is twofold: methodologically, we introduce a flexible SSIT-GAMLSS model that incorporates two levels of random effects; substantively, we provide new evidence of inequality trends in francophone West Africa, a region largely underrepresented in empirical research. |
| Keywords: | labour force surveys, imputation, inequality, West Africa |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18286 |
| By: | Aggarwal, Raavi (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India and Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany); Missbach, Leonard (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany); Somanathan, E. (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India); Steckel, Jan Christoph (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany and Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany); Sterner, Thomas (University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | Climate change mitigation is often assumed to be cheaper in developing countries than in developed countries. Yet, existing analyses frequently ignore the cost-effectiveness of price-based climate policies in the presence of other externalities such as indoor air pollution. Using detailed household data for six representatively selected countries, we examine the demand responses of biomass consumption to higher prices of electricity, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene. We show that for these fuels, carbon pricing can generate substantial domestic health costs resulting from increasing indoor air pollution that exceed the global benefits of climate mitigation in four out of six countries. Our results challenge the notion that climate change mitigation is cheaper in low-income countries relative to high-income countries. The design of climate policies needs to take contextual factors into account, in particular with respect to the fuels used by the poorest. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing; Biomass use; Indoor air pollution; Clean cooking |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2025–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2025_009 |
| By: | Ms. Tewodaj Mogues; Papa Niang |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a text-mining analysis of discussions of food and agriculture issues in publications of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) from 1946 to mid-2025, with deeper analysis on subsets of this period for selected publication types. It examines how references to food security and agriculture (FSA) have evolved over time, assesses how they differ across IMF outlets and regional focus of the papers, and explores the coverage of subtopics of FSA as well as broader economic contexts within which FSA is contextualized. Using text data from the IMF’s eLibrary metadata as well as its full-text data processed through the use of the Fund Document Extraction Toolkit (FDET), the study identifies key trends in the frequency and intensity of FSA references. The results indicate that IMF attention to FSA issues tends to peak during periods of global food crises and significant agricultural policy changes. These peaks closely track inflationary trends with minimal lag, suggesting rapid response of IMF work to crises. The study also reveals regional variations, with Sub-Saharan Africa and Emerging and Developing Asia exhibiting the highest prevalence of FSA references, while advanced economies show lower prevalence. The analysis also finds that FSA-focused publications exhibit greater attention to selected core macroeconomic themes (inflation and trade) as well as to newer thematic areas (climate change and inequality) relative to other IMF work. The tools and methods can be applied to macrocritical dimensions of other sectoral concerns, and the findings provide a foundation for further research that can extend the methodology and content of this work. |
| Keywords: | Text-mining; Agriculture; Food security; Macrocriticality; IMF publications. |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/254 |
| By: | Squarcina, Margherita |
| Abstract: | In recent years, farmers have faced growing exposure to economic shocks, extreme weather events, and conflicts, threatening their incomes, especially in developing countries. This study investigates whether voluntary sustainability standards help mitigate the economic impact of price shocks, using Rwanda’s 2023 coffee price stabilization policy as a case study. Drawing on a panel of 834 coffee farmers, the study implements a difference-in-differences design with continuous treatment and household fixed effects, complemented by an instrumental variable strategy. Results show that the fixed-price regime reduced coffee revenues, but did not affect overall household income. Income diversification was used as a strategy to stabilize earnings, especially among non-certified farmers. Price premium from certification was insufficient to offset revenue losses. The findings highlight the need for policies that improve coffee sector profitability, secure stable premiums for certified farmers, and support income diversification to sustain rural livelihoods. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:378988 |
| By: | Elacqua, Gregory; Hermosilla, Catalina; Kutscher, Macarena; Del Toro Mijares, Ana Teresa |
| Abstract: | Human-intensive programs like teacher mentoring face a fundamental scaling problem: evidence shows their impact declines as they expand, and the personalized support that makes them effective becomes prohibitively expensive at scale. This paper explores whether AI-powered tools can help resolve this tension. We document the development and pilot implementation of ”Profe Gabi, ” a generative AI chatbot designed to provide novice teachers in Chile with on-demand mentoring support through WhatsApp. The chatbot delivers personalized guidance across three dimensionspedagogical practice, socio-emotional well-being, and career developmentdrawing on Chiles existing National Induction and Mentoring System, which currently reaches fewer than 1% of eligible teachers due to capacity constraints. During an eight-week pilot with 550 novice teachers, Profe Gabi demonstrated the technical feasibility of scaling mentoring support: it reached more than three times the number of teachers served by the national program while maintaining high user satisfaction. However, engagement declined significantly, revealing critical implementation challenges around sustained adoption. We analyze these patterns to identify what conditions may be necessary for AI tools to meaningfully expand access to professional development, and discuss insights that inform Profe Gabis scale-up in 2025-2026. Our study contributes to an emerging literature on AI technologies for teacher support and offers lessons for similar interventions globally |
| Keywords: | Teacher mentoring;novice teachers;artificial intelligence;chatbots;professional development;scaling;education technology;Chile |
| JEL: | O33 I21 I25 M53 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14423 |