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on Development |
| By: | del Salto-Calderón, Katherine (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); Wilde, Joshua (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the effect of climate change on contraceptive use in a global context. We link women’s monthly contraceptive calendar data from the Demographic and Health Surveys in 44 low- and middle-income countries with high resolution daily temperature data, exploiting the random component of local temperature deviations to causally estimate this effect. We find that high temperatures impact contraceptive use, driven by changes in short-acting reversible contraception. However, these impacts are region- specific: while temperature shocks reduce contraceptive use in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, they increase in South and Southeast Asia. We find clear heterogeneities by education, age, parity, and urban/rural status. Our estimates imply that temperature-related climate change in sub-Saharan Africa – the most impacted region – will reduce contraceptive use by 2.4-4.3 percent by 2100. We conclude that the disproportionate worsening of climatic conditions in low- and middle-income countries will exacerbate already-existing global disparities in contraceptive access and use. |
| Keywords: | fertility, temperature, climate change, contraception, demography |
| JEL: | I15 J13 Q54 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18277 |
| By: | Narmandakh, Davaatseren; Marenya, Paswel; Opie, Hellen; Bett, Charles |
| Abstract: | In market-constrained environments such as those found in dryland agroecologies, farm families face the decision to self-provision for diet diversity through crop diversification or to specialize in a few crop (non-agriculture) enterprises based on market exchange. However, the latter strategy is constrained by the usual market access problems prevalent in rural Africa (especially in dryland geolocations). This study contributes to the ongoing development discourse and research by examining the welfare effects of greater market access and participation compared to farm production diversity in rural Kenya and Uganda. Using cross sectional data from 2, 398 households and three novel instrumental variables to isolate empirical correlates between market access and production diversity (as LHS variables) and diet diversity and food security, we find that both market participation and production diversity positively impact food security and welfare. One unit increase in farm production diversity is associated with a 20.8% increase in the value of food consumed from farm. In contrast, in villages with stronger market links, farm diversity significantly affects the value of food purchases. A 10% increase in sorghum market participation is associated with a small increase in household diet diversity (2.02%), the value of food purchases only in villages where there are limited grain market opportunities. A 10% market participation of sorghum is though associated with a 15% increases farm expenditure in villages with weak market links. However, in villages with stronger market links, market participation negatively affects food purchases. Promoting market participation alone may heighten inequality if market infrastructure is weak. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344362 |
| By: | Bhangaonkar, Rekha; Ranganathan, Thiagu |
| Abstract: | This study analyses differential resilience among horticultural farmers in Maharashtra, India. Based on a primary survey of 290 farmers across four villages in Jalna district, we find that farmers in the region shifted to grape cultivation over the past two decades as it provided a higher and more stable income compared to cotton. The recent years has seen depletion of groundwater table, a common pool resource and the primary source of irrigation for the farmers. In building resilience against groundwater risks, farmers resorted to water imports to satisfy irrigation requirements. With this background, we analyze the factors that affect tanker water use and the returns thereof. Our paper finds that intensity of tanker water use is inversely related to farm size indicating higher intensification of water imports among smallholding farmers. Our production function analysis indicates that both tanker use and expenditure on tanker water has no relation to horticultural production. Given the higher dependence on horticulture among the small and marginal farmers and that these farmers use tanker water extensively with no significant returns to production, our paper posits a case of differential resilience among farmers in the region. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344391 |
| By: | Bhagowalia, Priya; Chandna, Arjita |
| Abstract: | This study examines the association between women’s income and household nutrition using the India Human Development Survey (2005, 2011). Assuming that the household head and his/her spouse are the primary members who influence household nutrition, we explore the association between the primary woman’s income as a share of the total income of the primary couple, with household nutrition and diet diversity. The results show that the primary woman’s income share has a positive and significant association with household calorie intake especially with calories obtained from carbohydrates, but a significant negative association with calories from fats and no association with calories obtained from protein. Additionally, the positive association of the primary woman’s income share with household calorie intake is weaker in the presence of other educated women that have specific hierarchical relationship with the primary woman. The study thus underscores the importance of women’s relative bargaining power in improving household nutrition. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, International Development |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344312 |
| By: | Amankwah, Akuffo |
| Abstract: | This paper uses two waves of nationally representative household-level panel data to examine the welfare effects of agricultural productivity in rural Tanzania. Four measures of productivity and ten indicators of welfare, including multidimensional welfare, are considered. Econometric procedures that take into account potential endogeneity resulting from omitted variables bias are employed. The results show welfare-enhancing effects of agricultural productivity, though the elasticities are marginal, requiring potentially large productivity growth for substantial welfare impact. The analysis of the linkage between productivity growth and welfare transition shows that households that experience growth in productivity are more likely to make welfare-enhancing transitions. Policies that allow for expanding households access to durable goods and agricultural capital, investment in irrigation and erosion control facilities, improving households access to agricultural extension services with the needed know-how, as well as ensuring favorable biophysical environment, are vital for sustained productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344252 |
| By: | Hazrana, Jaweriah; Mishra, Ashok K. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of droughts on intra-household food consumption, diet diversity, and nutrition. The study provides a unique and nuanced understanding of how droughts affect the food consumption and nutrition of men, women, and children within a household. We use panel data from a nationally representative survey in Bangladesh. Findings show that after a drought, individuals spend 4.6% less on food and consume 3.4% fewer calories, 3.3% less protein, and 4.7% less fat. However, the effect is not homogeneous across all household members. Women and children, the most vulnerable groups, experience a greater shortfall in food consumption and nutrients than men. Furthermore, droughts lead to a less balanced household diet, characterized by reduced consumption of nutrient-rich animal-source and plant-based foods and increased reliance on cereals. Policymakers could support targeted interventions for vulnerable individuals to access adequate nutrition during climatic stress. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:345099 |
| By: | Santiago Cueto; Diether W. Beuermann; Julian Cristia; Ofer Malamud; Francisco Pardo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a large-scale randomized evaluation of the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) program in 531 Peruvian rural primary schools. We use administrative data on academic performance and grade progression over 10 years to estimate the long-run effects of increased computer access on (i) school performance over time and (ii) students’ educational trajectories. Following schools over time, we find no significant effects on academic performance but some evidence of negative effects on grade progression. Following students over time, we find no significant effects on primary and secondary completion, academic performance in secondary school, or university enrollment. Survey data indicate that computer access significantly improved students’ computer skills but not their cognitive skills; treated teachers received some training but did not improve their digital skills and showed limited use of technology in classrooms, suggesting the need for additional pedagogical support. |
| JEL: | I21 I25 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34495 |
| By: | Diogo G.C. Britto; Alexandre Fonseca; Paolo Pinotti; Breno Sampaio; Lucas Warwar |
| Abstract: | Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are widely used as a poverty reduction policy. While a large stream of literature has evaluated their short-term impacts, we know far less about their long-term effects. This paper investigates the long-term, intergenerational effects of one of the largest CCT in the world: Brazil's Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). |
| Keywords: | Cash transfers, Poverty, Social mobility, Long-run effects, Brazil |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-96 |
| By: | Matias Ciaschi; Mario Negre; Guido Neidhöfer |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present comprehensive evidence on intergenerational mobility in Mozambique—the country with the lowest documented level of mobility worldwide—and investigate its relationship with child labour. Using survey data that include a module on non-co-resident adult children, we document a strong link between children's educational attainment and parental education and household wealth. |
| Keywords: | Social mobility, Child labour, Education, Mozambique, Labour market |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-94 |
| By: | Bekele, Rahel Deribe; Jeuland, Marc; Munson, Dylan |
| Abstract: | Rural households in Ethiopia mainly depend on agriculture for their livelihood and most commonly use traditional biomass as their primary domestic energy source. Using data collected from 925 rural households and 3, 241 plots in four regions of Ethiopia, this study examines the determinants of fuel choice in rural Ethiopia, and the impact of biomass fuel scarcity on agricultural labor supply, yields, and returns, across the irrigation/dry, Meher, and Belg cropping seasons. We show that the shadow price of biomass energy sources, which are largely collected from the environment, and the market prices of charcoal and kerosene as well as indicators of wealth, are important determinants of households’ fuel choices. Our findings further indicate that the scarcity of biomass fuel, proxied by shadow price, has a negative and significant effect on agricultural labor supply in the irrigation and Belg seasons, which in turn affects yields and returns from agriculture. This suggests the importance of addressing domestic fuel scarcity alongside efforts to enhance agricultural productivity in rural areas, particularly when introducing interventions such as irrigation. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Farm Management, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344395 |
| By: | Cisse, Abdoulaye; de Janvry, Alain; Ferguson, Joel; Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco; Mbaye, Samba; Sadoulet, Elisabeth; Syll, Mame Mor Anta |
| Abstract: | Expanding irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa is widely viewed as a promising strategy for closing yield gaps and enhancing resilience to climate change. Drawing on more than 3, 000 satellite images over a 30-year period, we examine the impact of irrigation infrastructure development in the Senegal River Valley. We find that cultivation rates increase substantially following irrigation project completion. Cultivation rates are remarkably stable at around 25 percentage points above pre-irrigation levels for the first 20 years, and trend even higher from years 20 to 25. Moreover, we show that crops cultivated on irrigated land are significantly less sensitive to both positive and negative temperature shocks, underscoring the role of irrigation in climate adaptation. Despite these aggregate gains, we document considerable heterogeneity in project outcomes, with intermittent land use remaining widespread. To shed light on these patterns, we complement the satellite analysis with farmer survey data, which point to persistent water access constraints as a key barrier to continuous cultivation—constraints that cannot be resolved solely through individual farmer action. |
| Keywords: | 4404 Development Studies (for-2020), 44 Human Society (for-2020), Clinical Research (rcdc), 13 Climate Action (sdg), 15 Life on Land (sdg), 1402 Applied Economics (for), Development Studies (science-metrix), 3801 Applied economics (for-2020), 4404 Development studies (for-2020) |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt0p46j17d |
| By: | Mr. Christopher S Adam; Prabhmeet Kaur Matta |
| Abstract: | While Uganda has been exposed to an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events— most commonly localised flooding, leeching and mudslides associated with increased intensity of rainfall – changes in the aggregate level patterns of rainfall and temperature have been relatively modest and have evolved relatively slowly. As a consequence, it is unsurprising that conventionally measured weather variation appears to have a modest impact on food prices at the aggregate level. Instead, this paper uses highly granular earth-observation weather data in combination with spatially disaggregated price data to examine the impact of spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and temperature on the short-run price dynamics of domestically produced staple food crops in Uganda. We find that measures of weather variability computed across the agricultural cycle do impact the evolution of prices for locally-produced agricultural commodities, but the estimated effects are fragile and relatively small. Hence, a failure to reflect these effects in near-term forecasting to inform inflation models is unlikely to lead to significantly larger forecast errors. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; food prices; weather; earth-observation data; machine learning |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/244 |
| By: | Michelson, Hope |
| Abstract: | Measurement is not only a way of describing complex realities; it can also transform them by influencing policies and interventions. We are privileged to live in a thrilling era of measurement innovation: new and better methods to deploy, and new ways of adapting familiar and proven apparatus to new problems and contexts. This paper explores how new measurement strategies are providing fresh insights into the circumstances of small-farm household worldwide and describes challenges that these techniques have yet to overcome. Because the small farm sector plays a crucial role in global food security, global value chains and rural livelihoods, understanding its conditions and dynamics is a persistent focus of policymakers and researchers. I discuss how satellite-based assessments of crop yields, tree cover, temperature, and rainfall, laboratory measures of soil and agricultural input quality, GPS-based plot area calculations, labor activity trackers, and high- frequency household surveys conducted via cellular phones are providing improved understanding of fundamental dimensions of small farms and agrarian households. I identify important gaps in what is currently measured, discuss challenges related to implementing and interpreting new measures, and argue that new measurement strategies can be combined effectively with continued sustained investment for traditional “analog measures” – the household and farm surveys that remain fundamental for data collection in low-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344354 |
| By: | Piyaporn Chote; Ms. Corinne C Delechat; Mr. Seunghwan Kim; Ying Xu; Tamon Yungvichit |
| Abstract: | This study examines the nexus between inequality, household debt, and social protection in Thailand, focusing on their interrelation during the COVID-19 shock. Using data from the Thailand Household Socio-Economic Surveys of 2019, 2021, and 2023, we apply the Recentered Influence Function regression and decomposition method to identify the drivers of inequality in Thailand and demonstrate how the pandemic, despite its severe economic impact, led to a decline in income inequality through these drivers. Our analysis highlights the role of social protection, showing that social assistance helped reduce income inequality, while social insurance exerted the opposite effect in Thailand. Additionally, we investigate how income inequality and disparities in acess to social protection affected household debt dynamics during the pandemic. Our findings show that lower-income households were more likely to be indebted following the pandemic, possbly reflecting increased income shortfalls. Social assistance alleviated the pandemic’s effects on household debt by easing income constraints, whereas social insurance exacerbated them. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; inequality; household debt; social protection |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/248 |
| By: | Dercon, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Development aid faces a crisis of budgets, legitimacy, and political alignment. Framed in recent decades as technocratic and benevolent, aid has always been political, shaped by donor and recipient incentives. Its post-Cold War expansion reflected a permissive era of unipolarity and globalization, when Western foreign policy, business, and security establishments provided broad support. That equilibrium has now collapsed. Multipolar rivalry, protectionism, and fragmented domestic coalitions have left aid vulnerable, shallowly supported, and increasingly driven by narrow donor interests. The paper calls for recognition of the need for a globalization 2.0 that enables poorer countries to grow, warning that without such a framework, remaining aid will become more fragmented and ineffective. It also cautions against a euphemistic reliance on "mutual interest, " as evidence of genuine donor-recipient benefits is limited; trade facilitation and post-conflict stabilization are rare exceptions. Finally, the paper advances four propositions: aid must be selective, avoid entrenching dependency, balance short-term results with long-term system building, and support reformers willing to challenge the status quo. Only by acknowledging its political nature and aligning incentives within a reconfigured global order can aid remain relevant to development. |
| Keywords: | Foreign aid, Political economy, Donor-recipient incentives |
| JEL: | F35 O19 H87 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:331880 |
| By: | Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive overview of China's lending to developing countries - a central feature of today's international financial system. Building on our previous research and the work of others, we document the scale, destination, and terms of China's overseas lending boom, as well as the lending bust and defaults that have followed. We compare China's lending boom to past boom-bust cycles and discuss the implications of China's rise as an international creditor on recipient countries and sovereign debt markets. The evidence indicates that Chinese state banks are assertive and commercially sophisticated lenders. For recipient countries, however, the jury is still out: it remains to be seen whether the gains from China's lending - through growth and improved infrastructure - will outweigh the more immediate burdens of debt service or the multifaceted costs of default. |
| Keywords: | China, sovereign debt, default, bailouts, official lending |
| JEL: | E3 F34 F65 F68 N2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:331877 |
| By: | Caroline Krafft; Ragui Assaad; Ruotong Li |
| Abstract: | How do childhood environments contribute to intergenerational economic mobility? This paper explores the relative roles of family background (parents' wages, income, and wealth during the early years), and neighbourhoods (including access to services during childhood), in determining intergenerational economic mobility in Egypt. The research leverages 25 years of panel data, across five waves, spanning 1998-2023. Relative and absolute changes within wage, income, and wealth distributions are examined, along with tests of origin independence. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Wages, Income, Wealth, Panel data analysis, Egypt |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-95 |
| By: | Browne, Stephen; Matthys, Frederik; Palm, Detlef; Baumann, Max-Otto |
| Abstract: | This discussion paper advances a new vision for the United Nations (UN)'s development function at a moment when the organisation is facing profound pressures and persistent scepticism about its relevance. Although a consensus exists that reform is overdue, past initiatives have been too incremental, focusing on coordination and efficiency without addressing deeper institutional and political pathologies. The result is a UN development system that has grown financially large but is losing political significance. It is increasingly shaped by donor earmarking, entrenched patronage and a project delivery model that bears little resemblance to how national development actually occurs. Our vision marks a significant departure from the UN's historical role as an aid channel predicated on the North-South divide. Instead, the UN's future relevance lies in leveraging its universal legitimacy, normative authority and convening power. We argue for a UN development system that: 1. Acts as a trusted knowledge facilitator: providing high-level and technical advice, supporting peer exchange and helping governments navigate complex policy trade-offs in ways that are independent, politically informed and normatively grounded. 2. Engages in public advocacy that matters: elevating norms, correcting misinformation and shaping national debates in line with globally agreed standards, with sensitivity to national contexts. 3. Applies universality in practice: moving beyond the outdated distinction between donor and recipient to engage with all member states - including middle- and high-income countries - through global monitoring and peer accountability. 4. Serves as an actor of last resort in fragile settings: providing operational support only where national governments cannot or will not act, with strict sunset clauses and safeguards against unintentional harm. This reconceptualisation is not primarily about money. It implies a financially smaller but politically stronger UN development system that is less dependent on donors and more relevant to today's multipolar world. The real benchmark for success is not the volume of aid provided but the quality of advice, advocacy and resulting cooperation. Reaching this vision will be difficult. The UN's development apparatus is shaped by vested interests, path dependency and political inertia. Yet, opportunities for change exist. The collapse of traditional aid financing, the insistence of middle-income countries on equitable partnerships and fatigue with the current project-heavy model all point towards the need for a new approach. The Secretary-General's UN80 Initiative offers a platform for bold ideas, but only if the debate moves beyond technical fixes and acknowledges the political trade-offs inherent in transformation. |
| Keywords: | United Nations, Development, UN80, Reform, Multilateralism, Global Governance, Beyond Aid, Policy Advice, Universality, Patronage |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:333387 |