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on Development |
| By: | Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.; Xu, Yingchen |
| Abstract: | Smallholder farmers often lack documented land rights to serve as collateral for formal loans, with livelihoods inextricably linked to weather conditions. Resulting credit and risk constraints prevent them from investing in their farms. We implemented a randomized evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative credit scoring approach that uses remote sensing to unlock credit and insurance for smallholders including landless farmers in Odisha, a state in eastern India. In our treatment group, where we offered KhetScore loans and insurance, farmers - and especially women - were more likely to be insured and borrow from formal sources without substituting formal for informal loans. Despite increased borrowing, treated households faced less difficulty in repaying loans, suggesting that insured KhetScore loans transferred risk and eased the burden of repayment. Moreover, the treatment enhanced agricultural profitability by increasing revenues during the monsoon season and reducing costs in the dry season. Positive and significant effects are found among both farmers with unconstrained baseline credit access, and quantity rationed farmers, suggesting that KhetScore helps address supply-side credit constraints. Finally, the treatment significantly enhanced women’s empowerment and mental health. In conclusion, remote sensing-enabled financial products can substantially improve landless farmers’ access to agricultural credit, risk management, resilience, and well-being. |
| Keywords: | smallholders; land rights; loans; livelihoods; weather; credit; remote sensing; access to finance; gender; impact assessment; insurance; India; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162767 |
| By: | Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; You, Liangzhi |
| Abstract: | We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1, 053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit. |
| Keywords: | credit; productivity; investment; smallholders; welfare; risk; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:163758 |
| By: | Hidrobo, Melissa; Mueller, Valerie; Roy, Shalini; Fall, Cheikh Modou Noreyni; Lavaysse, Christophe; Belli, Anna |
| Abstract: | Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers; gender; men; rainfall; shock; women; social protection; Mali; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:163076 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John |
| Abstract: | Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | subsidies; fertilizers; resilience; supply chain disruptions; supply chains; global value chains; maize; smallholders; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168639 |
| By: | Jimaima, Mulala; Muzeya, Hamwende; Lwisha, Charity Mutale; Chizyuka, Henry; Chisata, Chitambo Muyunda |
| Abstract: | Maize is both Zambia’s staple food crop and a key cash crop for smallholder farmers, yet the commercialization of maize production remains constrained by structural, economic, and institutional barriers. This study investigates the determinants of maize sales among smallholder farmers using nationally representative data from the 2015 Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey (RALS), covering over 8, 800 agricultural households. A multiple linear regression model was employed to assess the influence of socioeconomic, farm-level, institutional, and market-related factors on maize sales. Results indicate that maize commercialization is primarily shaped by economic and production-oriented variables rather than socio-demographic characteristics. Specifically, higher maize prices, larger cultivated areas, the use of hired labor, coupled with higher transport costs significantly increase maize sales, while reliance on unreliable price information exerts a strong negative effect. Conversely, factors such as gender, age, education, and distance to market were statistically insignificant, suggesting that structural constraints affect all farmers equally. These findings highlight the need for systemic interventions that reduce transaction costs through improved infrastructure, strengthen access to timely and reliable market information, and enhance production capacity via land access, input provision, and labor support. By addressing these universal barriers, policymakers and development partners can facilitate the transition of Zambia’s smallholder farmers from subsistence to market-oriented production, thereby improving rural incomes, food security, and national agricultural commercialization. |
| Keywords: | Maize commercialization; Smallholder farmers; Food security; Transaction costs; Agricultural policy |
| JEL: | Q1 Q13 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126050 |
| By: | Adeyanju, Dolapo; Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Gelli, Aulo; Idowu, Ifetayo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income. The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals. |
| Keywords: | school feeding; efficiency; sustainability; agricultural development; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:158431 |
| By: | Lee, Seungmin; Abay, Kibrom A.; Barrett, Christopher B.; Hoddinott, John F. |
| Abstract: | Resilience measurement has received substantial attention over the past decade or so. Existing measures, however, relate resilience to a single well-being indicator. This may be problematic in contexts where households face deprivations in multiple dimensions. We explore how sensitive estimates of household-level resilience are to the specific well-being indicator used and show that measures are only weakly correlated across different, reasonable indicators based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings. We then introduce a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating the probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approach of Cissé and Barrett (2018) with the multidimensional poverty measurement method of Alkire and Foster (2011). Applying the new method to household panel data, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. |
| Keywords: | assets; consumption; dietary diversity; livestock; nutrition; poverty; resilience; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:151999 |
| By: | Katoch, Sonali; Kumar, Anjani; Kolady, Deepthi E.; Sharma, Kriti |
| Abstract: | This study examines the adoption of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) using cross-sectional data collected at the farm level in three key states of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh in 2023. A Food Safety Index (FSI) was developed to assess the intensity of adoption of food safety practices. Determinants of compliance with practices were assessed using multiple linear regression and an ordered logistic model. Generalized propensity score matching was used to evaluate the heterogenous impact of the adoption of FSM on farm-level performance indicators. The findings indicate that farmers are embracing a moderate level (0.48–0.58) of the food safety index at the farm level. The various socioeconomic and demographic factors influence compliance with FSM which include education, income, marketing channel, training exposure, awareness level, and infrastructure. The impact assessment reveals the direct relationship between FSM compliance and performance indicators. However, a lower level of compliance may not yield significant improvements. The study suggests incentivization through pricing reforms, improving infrastructure, and strengthening formal marketing channels. |
| Keywords: | dairy farming; data; food safety; impact assessment; smallholders; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152508 |
| By: | Chaudhary, Latika (Naval Postgraduate School); Dupraz, Yannick (Paris Dauphine University, PSL University, LEDA, CNRS, IRD); Fenske, James (University of Warwick and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | Combining detailed data on language and migration across colonial Indian districts in 1901 with a gravity model, we find origin and destination districts separated by more dissimilar languages saw less migration. We control for the physical distance between origin-destination pairs, several measures of dissimilarity in geographic characteristics, as well as origin and destination fixed effects. The results are robust to a regression discontinuity design that exploits spatial boundaries across language groups. We also find linguistic differences predict lower migration in 2001. Cultural channels are a small part of the link from linguistic diversity to lower migration. Rather, the evidence suggests communication and information channels are more important. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Linguistic Diversity, India JEL Classification: N35, O15, Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:774 |
| By: | Ray, Soumyajit; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Bhanjdeo, Arundhita; Heckert, Jessica |
| Abstract: | Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs)—farmer collectives, often legally registered - can mitigate some of the constraints smallholder farmers face by improving their access to extension, services, and markets, especially for women. We evaluate the effects of a set of interventions delivered through women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, India, using a panel of 1200 households and a difference-in-difference model with nearest neighbor matching. A complementary qualitative study in the same areas helps triangulate and interpret our findings. The interventions aimed to improve agricultural productivity by coordinating production and improving access to services, while also providing gender sensitization trainings to FPO leaders and members. We collect household data on asset ownership and agricultural outcomes and individual data on women’s and men’s empowerment using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI). Our results for asset ownership, land cultivated, cropping intensity, and per acre yields, revenues or costs are statistically insignificant. Effects on men’s and women's empowerment are mixed. While we see positive effects on women’s decisionmaking, asset ownership, control over income and attitudes towards intimate partner violence, the program is associated with an increase in workload and a reduction in active group membership for both men and women. Men appear to cede control over resources and decisionmaking to other household members. Additional analyses suggest that while some effects can occur in the short-term, others take time to accrue. FPO based interventions that aim to empower women or other marginalized groups likely require sustained investments over multiple years and will need to go beyond improving FPO functioning and increasing women’s participation to transforming social norms. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; farmers organizations; cooperatives; markets; prices; yields; empowerment; smallholders; women; gender; India; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:151877 |
| By: | Balana, Bedru; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Arega, Tiruwork; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth; Yami, Mastewal; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Wondwosen, Abenezer |
| Abstract: | Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation. |
| Keywords: | public works; public investment; watershed management; small-scale irrigation; nutrition; resilience; social safety nets; food security; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168643 |
| By: | Balana, Bedru; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face. |
| Keywords: | farm inputs; financial inclusion; food security; households; inorganic fertilizers; seeds; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162588 |
| By: | Chiwaula, Levison; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Goeb, Joseph; Gondwe, Anderson; Jolex, Aubrey |
| Abstract: | Maize prices fluctuate significantly throughout the year in Malawi, creating winners and losers depending on who is selling and who is buying the staple at different times. We link maize market price data to nationally and temporally representative household survey data on maize sales and purchases to quantify welfare gains and losses throughout the year. A stable maize price would lead to only a modest increase in Malawi’s total social surplus when summed across a whole year, but a dramatic reduction in hunger during the lean season. We discuss policy options to smooth maize prices throughout the year. |
| Keywords: | data analysis; economics; households; maize; market prices; surveys; Malawi; Eastern Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspp:139137 |
| By: | Leight, Jessica; Bahiru, Kibret Mamo; Buehren, Niklas; Getahun, Tigabu; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mulford, Michael; Tambet, Heleene |
| Abstract: | Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics. |
| Keywords: | climate change; land management; gender; social protection; sustainable land management; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168513 |
| By: | Bleck, Jaimie; Carrillo, Lucia; Gottlieb, Jessica; Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Soumano, Moumouni |
| Abstract: | We surveyed 2, 919 community leaders across seven regions of Mali to provide insights on the prevalence and severity of shocks and crises across localities; which types of shocks and crises are most difficult from which to recover; the formal and informal ways in which local actors are involved in aid distribution systems; and the types of programming local actors view as most beneficial for promoting resilience. Despite increasing prevalence of conflict across localities, leaders predominately cited climate-related shocks as the most difficult from which to recover— especially droughts. We find that localities vary in the inclusiveness of local governance around aid distribution: while elected mayors are almost always involved, traditional leaders, women’s group and youth leaders in villages, civil servants, and civil society leaders are each involved in 40–60% of localities. We used both a budget allocation exercise and an experimental game in which we introduced the concept of anticipatory action (AA) programming—aid that is “triggered” by an early warning signal to arrive before a shock and mitigate its worst effects—to probe preferences over aid modality. We found that leaders see value in balancing investment across resilience programming (including AA) and humanitarian response, especially food aid. However, there is some important variation between village- and commune-level officials: village-level leaders are more likely to prioritize aid modalities that target households directly, like food aid and cash transfers, while commune-level leaders are more likely to prioritize risk prevention trainings. Our findings have important policy implications for promoting local resilience in Mali, including the importance of investing more in drought resilience, engaging actors at different levels of local governance who have different information and perspectives, and simultaneously investing in capacity-building around early warning system accuracy and dissemination. |
| Keywords: | governance; climate; conflicts; resilience; Mali; Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152260 |
| By: | Ahmed, Akhter; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Hoddinott, John F.; Roy, Shalini |
| Abstract: | Evidence shows that cash and in-kind transfer programs increase food security while interventions are ongoing, including during or immediately after shocks. But less is known about whether receipt of these programs can have protective effects for household food security against shocks that occur several years after interventions end. We study the effects of a transfer program implemented as a cluster-randomized control trial in rural Bangladesh from 2012-2014 – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) – on food security in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We assess TMRI’s impacts at three post-program time points: before the shock (2018), amidst the shock (2021), and after the immediate effects of the shock (2022). We find that TMRI showed protective effects on household food security during and after the pandemic, but program design features “mattered”; positive impacts were only seen in the treatment arm that combined cash transfers with nutrition behavior change communication (Cash+BCC). Other treatment arms – cash only, and food only – showed no significant sustained effects on our household food security measures after the intervention ended, nor did they show protective effects during the pandemic. A plausible mechanism is that investments made by Cash+BCC households in productive assets – specifically livestock – increased their pre-shock resilience capacity. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; resilience; shock; social protection; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:155053 |
| By: | Laura Peralta; Marie Boltz; Philippe Delacote; Kenneth Houngbedji; Julien Jacob |
| Abstract: | We examine the environmental impacts of legal provisions to restore land rights for populations displaced by armed conflict, focusing on Colombia’s Land Restitution Law. Leveraging annual satellite data on forest cover loss, detailed records of the timing and location of restitution claims, and a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, we find that land restitution is associated with increased tree cover loss. Importantly, this effect is not driven by deforestation in primary forests, but rather by forest loss in areas formerly used for agriculture. These findings highlight the environmental trade-offs inherent in post-conflict land reforms. While restoring land rights is critical for transitional justice and economic recovery, attention to environmental outcomes is essential to ensure sustainable and equitable reconstruction. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, Land rights, Internal conflict, Colombia |
| JEL: | O12 O13 O17 D74 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-38 |
| By: | Doireann O'Brien (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | The introduction of prenatal sex-detection technologies has led to a surge in the abortion of female foetuses in South and East Asia. Bans on sex-selection are typically introduced to combat this practice, but they may have unintended consequences for girls due to persistent norms of son preference. This paper identifies an increase in child marriage as one such consequence in the context of India. I exploit a natural experiment created by Maharashtra's implementation of a ban on sex-selection while it remained legal in neighbouring states. I find that treated girls born after the policy’s implementation were significantly more likely to be married as children. This effect is strongest among scheduled tribe and caste communities, who face greater barriers to evading the ban. I find little evidence for a marriage-squeeze channel. A plausible mechanism is that child marriage is used as an alternative coping strategy to abortion, against the costliness of raising daughters. |
| Keywords: | Sex-selective abortion; Child marriage; Gender norms; Son Preference; Dowry |
| JEL: | I15 J12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0925 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; armed conflicts; climate change; weather hazards; inputs; Ethiopia; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168640 |
| By: | Headey, Derek D. |
| Abstract: | Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts. |
| Keywords: | food insecurity; malnutrition; prevalence of undernourishment; poverty; stunting |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169686 |
| By: | Tomás Baioni (UNLP) |
| Abstract: | One of the salient aspects of climate change is the increment of both the intensity and frequency of natural disasters. This paper addresses how these factors interplay at a local level, focusing on Chilean regions at a quarterly basis for the period 2009–2025. To analyze intensity, I rely on the local projections method and find that on average, a 1% shock in natural disasters’ intensity has an immediate negative effect in employment by 0.057%, and an immediate negative effect on the debt market, increasing the household debt by 0.123 p.p. Overall, my results suggest that a 1% shock in natural disasters’ intensity has an immediate positive effect in real GDP by 0.015%, and a significant long-term negative effect on GDP by 0.054%, potentially showing signs of hysteresis. On the other hand, to analyze natural disasters’ frequency, I rely on a local projections difference-in-differences (LP-DID) estimator and find that those Chilean regions that suffer a natural disaster are more likely to experience short-term decreases in employment and GDP by 0.005% and 0.003%, respectively. I rely on a panel VAR model to estimate the impact of natural disasters’ intensity as robustness checks, and find that my original conclusions hold: natural disasters have a short-term negative effect on employment at 0.005% and a long-term negative effect on growth at 0.170%. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, natural disasters, environmental risks, emerging markets, local projections |
| JEL: | C33 H70 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:373 |
| By: | Sharma, Kriti; Kumar, Anjani; Kumar, Nalini Ranjan |
| Abstract: | Potato remains a crucial crop for achieving India’s food security goals and generating income for small-scale farmers. But India, the largest potato producer after China, remains behind many of its peers in attaining high yield. A low varietal replacement rate could be one of the major reasons for low yield in India. This critical issue warrants investigation, yet empirical results remain limited in the Indian context. Drawing on data from a comprehensive field survey of 892 potato growing farmers conducted in 2018–19 across five major potato-producing states in India, we find the determinants of the average area-weighted age of potato varieties used, and their impact on potato yield. The instrumental variable regression analysis establishes a negative association between varietal age and yield of potato. It also underscores the importance of access to weather forecast and linkages with agricultural organizations to achieve higher yield. Furthermore, it shows that household size, links to political party, and information about new seeds from friends, progressive farmers and input dealers are associated with lower varietal age. These insights will be instrumental for policymakers and potato breeders in promoting sustainable agricultural practices and boosting food security in India amidst the impending demographic challenges. |
| Keywords: | crop yield; food security; policy innovation; potato harvesters; regression analysis; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152446 |
| By: | Ciaschi, Matías; Marchionni, Mariana; Neidhöfer, Guido |
| Abstract: | We assess intergenerational mobility in terms of education and income rank in five Latin American countries - Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, and Panama - by accounting for the education and occupation of both parents. Based on the Lubotsky and Wittenberg (2006) approach, we find that intergenerational persistence estimates increase by 26% to 50% when parents' occupations are considered alongside their education to proxy family socioeconomic background. The increase is particularly strong when education is more evenly distributed in the parents' generation. Furthermore, we assess how the informativeness of each proxy for parental background evolves across countries and over time, and find that maternal characteristics have become increasingly informative in recent decades, in line with rising women's educational attainment and labor force participation. Interesting heterogeneities across countries and cohorts are observed. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Education, Occupation, Mothers, Latin America |
| JEL: | D63 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327110 |