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on Development |
| By: | Hagos, Samuel Zewdie; Tuki, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Ethnic federalism has long been a cornerstone of Ethiopia's political system - and a recurrent source of violent conflict. Despite its centrality to the country's governance and conflict dynamics, there is a notable absence of large-N quantitative research examining how exposure to violence shapes public attitudes toward ethnic federalism. This study addresses that gap by leveraging nationally representative data from rounds 8 and 9 of the Afrobarometer surveys (n = 4, 778). To estimate the causal effect of violent conflict on attitudes toward ethnic federalism, we employ an instrumental variable approach that exploits the distance from respondents' geolocation to the nearest international border as an exogenous source of variation in conflict exposure. Our findings reveal that exposure to violent conflict increases support for ethnic federalism. Qualitative interviews with participants across four regions in Ethiopia suggest that violent conflict erodes trust in the central government, weakens national belonging, and strengthens ethnic identification. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopia, ethnic federalism, ethnicity, violent conflict, marginalization, governance |
| JEL: | D63 D74 J15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gigawp:324863 |
| By: | Albarrán, Pedro (Universidad de Alicante); Robles, Antonio (Universidad de Alicante); Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna (Universidad de Alicante) |
| Abstract: | Colombia’s prolonged conflict has made the country one of the most affected by forced internal displacement (FID) in the world. This study examines the impact of the FARC’s 2014 unilateral and permanent ceasefire on FID. We use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the timing of the ceasefire and the pre-conflict distribution of FARC presence across municipalities. Results show a substantial reduction in severe displacement episodes in affected areas, with effects that emerged gradually and persisted over time. These findings highlight the importance of stability and the effective implementation of peace agreements in mitigating FID and its far-reaching consequences. |
| Keywords: | ceasefire, armed conflict, forced internal displacement, FARC, Colombia |
| JEL: | D74 R23 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18087 |
| By: | Kumar, Kaushalendra (International Institute for Population Sciences); Singh, Ashish (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi); Kumar, Santosh (University of Notre Dame); Singh, Abhishek (International Institute for Population Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Using nationally representative data from India, this study estimates the effect of calorie intake on wages. To account for endogeneity and heterogeneity, we apply Instrumental Variable and Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression methods. Results suggest that higher calorie consumption positively affects workers’ wages. A 10% increase in per capita calorie intake per day leads to a 2.5% increase in daily wages. The wage effect varies by occupation type and across the wage distribution; the marginal effect of calorie intake on wage is higher at lower quantiles of the wage distribution and for non-elementary workers. Our findings highlight the need for nutritional supplementation, particularly for workers at low and median wage levels, to maximize the wage gains from nutritional public policies. |
| Keywords: | instrumental variable quantile regression, 2SLS, calorie, wages, India |
| JEL: | I14 I15 J24 J31 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18100 |
| By: | Xiao Hui Tai; Suraj R. Nair; Shikhar Mehra; Joshua E. Blumenstock |
| Abstract: | Seasonal migration plays a critical role in stabilizing rural economies and sustaining the livelihoods of agricultural households. Violence and civil conflict have long been thought to disrupt these labor flows, but this hypothesis has historically been hard to test given the lack of reliable data on migration in conflict zones. Focusing on Afghanistan in the 8-year period prior to the Taliban's takeover in 2021, we first demonstrate how satellite imagery can be used to infer the timing of the opium harvest, which employs a large number of seasonal workers in relatively well-paid jobs. We then use a dataset of nationwide mobile phone records to characterize the migration response to this harvest, and examine whether and how violence and civil conflict disrupt this migration. We find that, on average, districts with high levels of poppy cultivation receive significantly more seasonal migrants than districts with no poppy cultivation. These labor flows are surprisingly resilient to idiosyncratic violent events at the source or destination, including extreme violence resulting in large numbers of fatalities. However, seasonal migration is affected by longer-term patterns of conflict, such as the extent of Taliban control in origin and destination locations. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.00279 |
| By: | Sarun Kamolthip |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of daily temperature fluctuations on subnational economic growth in Thailand. Using annual gross provincial product (GPP) per capita data from 1982 to 2022 and high-resolution reanalysis weather data, I estimate fixed-effects panel regressions that isolate plausibly exogenous within-province year-to-year variation in temperature. The results indicate a statistically significant inverted-U relationship between temperature and annual growth in GPP per capita, with adverse effects concentrated in the agricultural sector. Industrial and service outputs appear insensitive to short-term weather variation. Distributed lag models suggest that temperature shocks have persistent effects on growth trajectories, particularly in lower-income provinces with higher average temperatures. I combine these estimates with climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios to evaluate province-level economic impacts through 2090. Without adjustments for biases in climate projections or lagged temperature effects, climate change is projected to reduce per capita output for 63-86% of Thai population, with median GDP per capita impacts ranging from -4% to +56% for RCP4.5 and from -52% to -15% for RCP8.5. When correcting for projected warming biases - but omitting lagged dynamics - median losses increase to 57-63% (RCP4.5) and 80-86% (RCP8.5). Accounting for delayed temperature effects further raises the upper-bound estimates to near-total loss. These results highlight the importance of accounting for model uncertainty and temperature dynamics in subnational climate impact assessments. All projections should be interpreted with appropriate caution. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.20105 |
| By: | Manabu Nose (Keio University, Faculty of Economics); Yasuyuki Sawada (University of Tokyo, Faculty of Economics, Graduate School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the nonlinear effects of a large-scale highway construction project in the Greater Mekong Subregion, which connects the historically conflict-affected borderlands of northern Vietnam to the country’s industrial core. Employing a market access framework with geo-coded highway network and firm-level panel data, we estimate the causal impact of improved interregional connectivity, while accounting for spillovers via production input-output linkages. To address endogeneity issues arising from non-random route placements, we construct least-cost path spanning tree networks. Our instrumental variable estimates reveal that enhanced market access spurred manufacturing firm agglomeration and employment growth, particularly in peripheral rural areas. We further explore the underlying sources of polycentric development patterns, finding pronounced effects in second-tier cities characterized by less intense competition and better access to national road networks. Our findings are robust to controls for industrial zones, underscoring the pivotal role of the upgraded highway connectivity in transforming previously marginalized regions and supporting economy-wide industrialization over the past decade. |
| Keywords: | spatial structural transformation, market access, treatment spillover, agglomeration, core-periphery |
| JEL: | O14 O18 O22 O25 R12 R32 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2025-010 |
| By: | Alper Deniz Karakas |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term economic impact of the colonial Mita system in Peru, building on Melissa Dell's foundational work on the enduring effects of forced labor institutions. The Mita, imposed by the Spanish colonial authorities from 1573 to 1812, required indigenous communities within a designated boundary to supply labor to mines, primarily near Potosi. Dell's original regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis, leveraging the Mita boundary to estimate the Mita's legacy on modern economic outcomes, indicates that regions subjected to the Mita exhibit lower household consumption levels and higher rates of child stunting. In this paper, I replicate Dell's results and extend this analysis. I apply Double Machine Learning (DML) methods--the Partially Linear Regression (PLR) model and the Interactive Regression Model (IRM)--to further investigate the Mita's effects. DML allows for the inclusion of high-dimensional covariates and enables more flexible, non-linear modeling of treatment effects, potentially capturing complex relationships that a polynomial-based approach may overlook. While the PLR model provides some additional flexibility, the IRM model allows for fully heterogeneous treatment effects, offering a nuanced perspective on the Mita's impact across regions and district characteristics. My findings suggest that the Mita's economic legacy is more substantial and spatially heterogeneous than originally estimated. The IRM results reveal that proximity to Potosi and other district-specific factors intensify the Mita's adverse impact, suggesting a deeper persistence of regional economic inequality. These findings underscore that machine learning addresses the realistic non-linearity present in complex, real-world systems. By modeling hypothetical counterfactuals more accurately, DML enhances my ability to estimate the true causal impact of historical interventions. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.18947 |
| By: | Jheelum Sarkar |
| Abstract: | I study whether and to what extent STEM college degrees offer labor market resilience during the COVID 19 shock. Both the pandemic and its nationwide lockdown affected occupations unevenly. While some jobs could adapt by switching to remote work or surging demand, others could not. Using the nationally representative high-frequency labor force survey data (2017-2023), I used a difference-in-difference strategy to compare changes in employment participation and monthly earnings between STEM and non-STEM graduates during and after the pandemic. The results suggest that individuals with a STEM college degree were more likely to be employed compared to their non-STEM counterparts during and after the pandemic period. Although STEM graduates appeared to experience higher wage growth compared to their non-STEM peers, the difference was statistically insignificant. Additional evidence on mechanisms suggests that the results are driven by the type of industries with higher share of STEM graduates, their geographical location and their career stages. The main findings were robust across alternative specifications and falsification tests. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.12471 |
| By: | Mohapatra, Souryabrata; Paltasingh, Kirtti Ranjan; Peddi, Dayakar; Sahoo, Dukhabandhu; Sahoo, Auro Kumar; Mohanty, Pritisudha |
| Abstract: | Climate change poses significant threats to Indian agriculture, markedly through its impact on crop yields. While most existing research focuses on climate-sensitive crops like rice, relatively climate-resilient cereals such as sorghum, maize and finger and pearl millets have received less attention. This study uses district-level data from four southern states over 26 years to conduct a moment-based analysis of the effects of various climatic and non-climatic factors on these crop yields. The research offers nuanced insights into how different weather patterns influence crop yields, yield variability (risk) and downside yield risks. The study disaggregates climate variables into seasonal effects, showing that winter maximum temperatures positively affect the yields of maize and sorghum but negatively impact rice. In contrast, summer maximum temperatures generally reduce yields across all crops except finger millet, which thrives due to its heat tolerance. Monsoon rainfall boosts the yields of pearl millet, although excessive rainfall during the monsoon season increases downside risks for maize and rice. Evapotranspiration shows mixed effects, while wind speed tends to negatively affect yields, especially during the summer and monsoon seasons. Additionally, the study finds that excessive irrigation can harm rainfed crops like maize and pearl millet, while technological advancements such as HYV seeds and fertilisers positively impact yields. These findings underscore the urgent need to promote climate-resilient crop varieties, restructure irrigation subsidies and provide targeted support to smallholder farmers to enhance food security in the face of increasingly erratic seasonal conditions. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Cereal crops; Production risks; Southern India; Moment-based analysis |
| JEL: | D81 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125803 |
| By: | Pablo Cotler (Universidad Iberoamericana Mexico City) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between financial inclusion and the continued use of informal savings in Mexico, using data from three waves of the national financial inclusion survey and instrumental variable techniques. Despite increased account ownership, informal saving practices have not declined. Findings suggest that financial access, infrastructure, and education alone are insufficient to change saving behavior. Policies should consider incorporating features of informal mechanisms, such as rotating savings groups or cooperative models. A deeper understanding of household motivations are needed, and future surveys must capture user experiences to design more inclusive strategies that address persistent financial inequalities. |
| JEL: | D14 G21 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smx:wpaper:2025002 |
| By: | Takpara, Moukaila Mouzamilou |
| Abstract: | The article investigates the contribution of trade facilitation to productivity growth in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. We include four trade facilitation indicators (i.e., physical infrastructure, ICT, business and regulatory environment, border, and transport efficiency) as explanatory factors for productivity growth measured by both total factor productivity and labor productivity. The empirical evidence is based on both Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) and the Instrumental Variable Two-Stage Least squares (IV-2SLS) in a sample of 29 SSA countries over the period 2004-2017. The main results from the study show that trade facilitation contributes positively and significantly to total factor productivity as well as labor productivity in SSA. Based on this finding, SSA countries need to improve border procedures as well as the business and regulatory environment to generate substantial productivity gains and boost the competitiveness of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), given the job creation potential of MSMEs. |
| Keywords: | Trade facilitation, Productivity, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2SLS |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O11 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125818 |