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on Development |
| By: | Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit; Shankar, Binay |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a large-scale rural road construction program-the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)-on the performance of rural manufacturing firms in India. While these firms provide vital non-farm employment in rural areas, their growth is often thought to be constrained by inadequate infrastructure. Leveraging administrative data and the quasi-random rollout of the program, we estimate effects using a two-way fixed effects framework. We find no evidence that improved road connectivity affects turnover, profits, or employment for formal enterprises. In contrast, informal firms experience significant gains in turnover, expenditure, profits, employment, and wage bills. These effects appear to be driven by reductions in infrastructure-related constraints: treated firms report fewer operational problems and less competition from larger firms, particularly in marketing and distribution. Our findings highlight the heterogeneous effects of rural infrastructure expansion and the greater responsiveness of informal enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Firms, India, Infrastructure, Roads, Rural |
| JEL: | D22 O12 O18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1650 |
| By: | Yemareshet Hailu Demeke (Ph.D. Candidate, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); DAINN WIE (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This study provides the first empirical evidence on the impact of the Tigray War (2020–2022) on children's education and child labor in Ethiopia. We combine panel data from the 2018/19 and 2021/22 waves of the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with geocoded conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. The analysis focuses on children aged 7–18 across Ethiopia, excluding Tigray due to data limitations and endogeneity concerns. We estimate a Difference-in-Differences model with child fixed effects to compare pre- and post-war outcomes based on proximity to conflict events. We find that children living closer to conflict zones were significantly less likely to attend school or plan for future enrollment, with effects concentrated among boys and those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Conflict exposure also increased child labor, particularly unpaid work for other households and state-led labor among boys—an underreported form of child involvement in conflict settings. Further analysis and anecdotal evidence suggest that insecurity and state mobilization contributed to boys’ labor participation, ultimately disrupting their education. |
| Keywords: | Conflict; School attendance; Child labor; State-led labor; Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:25-10 |
| By: | Kulshreshtha, Shobhit; Bhattacharya, Leena; Ayyagari, Padmaja |
| Abstract: | Previous research, focusing primarily on high income countries, has linked later sunsets to sleep deficits and worse health outcomes. These results might not generalize to low- and middle- income countries, which have different socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental conditions. Using data from the 2015-16 and 2019-21 waves of India's Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and exploiting within-district variation in annual average sunset times, we estimate the causal impact of later sunsets on the long-term health outcomes of individuals. We find that later sunsets leads to a lower prevalence of anemia, diabetes, and thyroid disorders and an improvement in the overall health index. To explore mechanisms, we analyze variation in time allocation due to a later sunset time using the 2019 Time Use Survey. We find that individuals experiencing later sunsets sleep better and exercise more, but do not change their sedentary leisure activities. Additionally, they consume healthier food and increase labor supply. These lifestyle changes may explain the health improvements associated with delayed sunsets in India. |
| Keywords: | health, sunset time, time use, lifestyle, fixed effects |
| JEL: | J22 I12 I14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1648 |
| By: | Dorothee Weiffen; Ghassan Baliki; Tilman Brück; Jan Elfes |
| Abstract: | Households living in humanitarian settings face extreme vulnerability to adverse shocks. Cash transfers can reduce this vulnerability and enhance household welfare. However, the potential of anticipatory cash transfers - delivered before the adverse impacts of a shock unfold - in safeguarding welfare and fostering social stability remains underexplored. To address this knowledge gap, we study the effects of a one-off anticipatory cash transfer provided to internally displaced households in Bentiu, South Sudan, at the onset of severe floods. We examine the short- and medium-term impacts of this cash transfer using a quasi-experimental design that closely resembles a random treatment assignment. We utilize three waves of panel data: shortly before and shortly after the intervention (during the flood onset) and six months after the intervention (after the floods have receded). Despite unsatisfied basic needs, the findings reveal preferences for strategic investment over short-term consumption: The intervention did not improve food security or mental health and immediate health gains dissipated post-flood. Instead, households prioritized investments in shelter reinforcement, which reduced severe flood impacts by 13%. Shelter investment unexpectedly contributed to community cohesion, reducing displacement (24%), theft (18%), and conflict (24%). Key mechanisms are lockable doors, shelters that withstand the water, and generally less flood stress, highlighting the critical role of housing in fostering security and social stability in crisis settings. |
| Keywords: | anticipatory action, cash transfer, community cohesion, forced displacement, humanitarian crisis, natural disasters, risk |
| JEL: | D91 I32 O12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:433 |
| By: | Mookerjee, Mehreen; Ojha, Manini |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of women's control over resources on their relative decision-making power within households, using an Instrumental Variable approach. We construct a composite Resource Empowerment Index that captures women's access to and control over economic and informational resources, including money, bank accounts, mobile phones, and knowledge of financial tools. To identify causal effects, we exploit variation in neighbouring women's media exposure as a source of exogenous influence on an individual woman's REI. We find robust positive effects of greater resource empowerment on women's relative say in household decisions, with evidence of diminishing marginal returns at higher levels of autonomy. We also find significant heterogeneity with large effects for older women, unemployed women, women in rural areas, those in larger households, those with less educated husbands and those with no children or more daughters. |
| Keywords: | Resource empowerment, ownership, relative decision-making, media exposure, instrumental variable, India |
| JEL: | J12 J13 D13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1641 |
| By: | De Swardt, Christiaan; Hartwig, Renate |
| Abstract: | Marriage market imbalances have been linked to social instability, crime, and reduced welfare in both developing and developed countries. We revisit this issue in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa, where high population growth and the prevalence of polygyny shape partner availability in structurally significant ways. Building on a dynamic model of the marriage market, we introduce a novel measure that accounts explicitly for the intensity of polygyny and apply it to Demographic and Health Survey data from 1991 to 2023. We show that conventional marriage ratios, which ignore polygyny, understate the extent of male-biased competition in the marriage market. When polygyny is incorporated, we find that marriage imbalances have persisted at structurally high levels since 2006, especially in rural areas and among Muslim populations. These patterns are driven by demographic transitions - declining population growth and narrowing partner age gaps - that amplify the impact of polygyny on male surplus. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for marriage market dynamics in the design of policies related to demographic change, family formation, and social stability in low-income settings. |
| Abstract: | Ungleichgewichte auf dem Heiratsmarkt werden sowohl in Entwicklungs- als auch in Industrieländern mit sozialer Instabilität, Kriminalität und sinkendem Wohlstand in Verbindung gebracht. Wir greifen dieses Thema im Kontext Subsahara-Afrikas wieder auf, wo ein hohes Bevölkerungswachstum und die Verbreitung von Polygynie die Verfügbarkeit von Partnern in strukturell bedeutender Weise prägen. Auf der Grundlage eines dynamischen Modells des Heiratsmarktes führen wir eine neue Messgröße ein, die die Intensität der Polygynie explizit berücksichtigt, und wenden sie auf Daten der Demographic and Health Surveys von 1991 bis 2023 an. Wir zeigen, dass herkömmliche Heiratsquoten, die Polygynie außer Acht lassen, das Ausmaß des männlichen Wettbewerbs auf dem Heiratsmarkt unterschätzen. Unter Berücksichtigung der Polygynie stellen wir fest, dass das Ungleichgewicht auf dem Heiratsmarkt seit 2006 strukturell auf einem hohen Niveau bleibt, insbesondere in ländlichen Gebieten und in der muslimischen Bevölkerung. Diese Muster sind auf demografische Veränderungen zurückzuführen - rückläufiges Bevölkerungswachstum und geringere Altersunterschiede zwischen den Partnern -, die die Auswirkungen der Polygynie auf den Männerüberschuss verstärken. Unsere Ergebnisse unterstreichen, wie wichtig es ist, die Dynamik des Heiratsmarktes bei der Gestaltung von Maßnahmen zu berücksichtigen, die sich auf den demografischen Wandel, die Familienbildung und die soziale Stabilität in einkommensschwachen Regionen beziehen. |
| Keywords: | Africa, age gap, marriage market, marriage ratio, polygyny, population growth, sex ratio |
| JEL: | J11 J12 N37 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:323234 |
| By: | Quynh Huynh (Univsersity College London); Hyejin Ku (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between economic development and female labor force participation, with a focus on the impact of gender norms. Analyzing quasi-random variation in provincial exports in reunified Vietnam from 2002 to 2018, we find that a positive economic shock led to a significant decline in women’s labor market engagement, particularly among married women from wealthier households and those with husbands in more skilled occupations. This trend is more pronounced in the South (formerly capitalist) than in the North (always socialist), and among native Southerners compared to Northerners relocated to the South after the war. Our findings highlight the importance of gender role attitudes in shaping women’s responses to rising incomes. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation, social norms, gender role attitudes, income andsubstitution effects, trade liberalization |
| JEL: | J16 J22 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2516 |
| By: | Cícero, Vinicius Curti; Heras-Recuero, Laura |
| Abstract: | We study how a large, exogenous trade shock --- triggered by China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 --- reshaped income, inequality, and import behavior across Brazilian regions. Using a shift-share instrument based on pre-shock export structures, we show that regions more exposed to China’s demand boom experienced increases in income per capita and within-region inequality relative to less exposed areas. These changes, in turn, led to rising import values and a shift in import composition, particularly toward consumption goods and medium- to high-tech manufactured products. To interpret these patterns, we classify goods by necessity and luxury status using Brazilian household survey data and develop a complementary ``demonstration luxury'' classification --- designed to capture status-oriented goods --- based on U.S. consumption patterns. Luxury imports rose most in regions that were initially more unequal or experienced sharper post-shock increases in inequality, consistent with non-homothetic preferences and status-driven consumption. Our findings highlight inequality as a key channel through which trade shocks shape regional import demand in developing economies. |
| Date: | 2025–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9kh2g_v1 |
| By: | Dhammika Dharmapala; Marvin Suesse |
| Abstract: | A vast literature across several academic disciplines studies the impact of colonial rule, but less attention has been paid to the consequences of decolonization. This paper uses a recently-constructed dataset on the fiscal history of African countries from 1900 to 2015 to analyze the impact of decolonization on fiscal capacity (defined as revenue from taxes that are relatively difficult to collect and that require more administrative infrastructure). The analysis adopts a staggered difference-in-difference approach, implemented using a stacked event study. It finds no discernible pre-trends prior to decolonization, and a substantial increase in fiscal capacity starting about 5-6 years after decolonization. This result – which implies substantial state-building activity in postcolonial Africa – is robust to tests for a variety of alternative explanations, the use of alternative control groups, and the use of generalized synthetic control methods. We also show that this effect is not explained by democratization or improved public goods provision. Our conceptual framework instead posits that post-colonial states were able to increase tax revenues from hard-to collect sources because their higher degree of legitimacy improved citizens’ tax morale. We offer historical evidence that is consistent with this channel. Our finding – that colonial rulers invested less in fiscal capacity than did post-independence governments – sheds new light on the consequences of colonial rule, and on the determinants of variation in governments’ fiscal capacity. |
| Keywords: | taxation, colonialism, decolonization, fiscal capacity, legitimacy |
| JEL: | H20 O12 N47 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12059 |
| By: | Bharatee Bhusana Dash; Stanley L. Winer |
| Abstract: | Inequality and social mobility in India are longstanding social issues. We document patterns of absolute inequality, relative inequality and social mobility for India as a whole as well as for Indian states grouped by level of development. The analysis uses easy to understand indexes constructed using selected percentiles and percentile ratios of household consumption expenditures from the National Sample Surveys for 1983 to 2011-12. We augment the analysis of inequality and social mobility with an assessment of the degree to which the states are diverging in these respects over time. Throughout the paper, we compare the patterns revealed by the percentile measures with those based on corresponding Gini coefficients. The investigation reveals three distinct subperiods across major Indian states during which inequality and social mobility stand in different relation to each other. Contrasts uncovered among the three subperiods identified in our analysis may prove useful to scholars who want to study connections between inequality, social mobility, economic growth and public redistributive policy actions. |
| Keywords: | absolute and relative inequality, social mobility, percentile-based indexes, Gini coefficient, absolute divergence, Gini decomposition, household consumption expenditure survey, Indian states, Bimarou vs. Non-Bimarou states |
| JEL: | D31 D63 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12014 |
| By: | Misra, Shashank; Kulshreshtha, Shobhit |
| Abstract: | India consistently ranks among the countries with the highest levels of ambient air pollution worldwide. At the same time, it faces significant challenges in neonatal health, with newborns having low average birth weights and a high incidence of being born within the low birth weight (LBW) and very low birth weight (VLBW) category. Using data from the Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS), we examine the impact of in-utero exposure to particulate matter on a number of birth weight indicators. We exploit variation in wind direction during the in-utero period to capture quasi-random variation in particulate matter exposure for each child. We find that reducing in-utero PM2.5 exposure by one standard deviation would lead to 1.3% increase in average birth weight, a 2.7 percentage point decrease in the incidence of LBW births and a 0.6 percentage point decrease in the incidence of VLBW births respectively. Drawing on estimates from prior studies, we find that the observed improvements in both average birth weight and reductions in LBW incidence from meeting WHO air quality standards could yield substantial long-run economic benefits, potentially amounting to billions of dollars annually in addition to broader gains in child health, cognition, and educational outcomes. |
| Keywords: | birth weight, air pollution, in-utero exposure, India |
| JEL: | J13 I12 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1635 |
| By: | Monique Newiak (Inclusion and Gender Unit, International Monetary Fund); Ratna Sahay (National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), India)); Navya Srivastava (National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), India)) |
| Abstract: | Domestic violence is a global phenomenon. We study the interplay of determinants of a woman’s risk of facing intimate partner violence (IPV) for the case of India—using information from up to 235 thousand female survey respondents and exploiting state-level variation in institutions, law enforcement and attitudes. Unless in paid and formal employment, a woman’s economic activity is associated with a higher risk of IPV. However, household and other characteristics, such as higher agency within the household, higher education of the husband, lower social acceptance of IPV, and normalization of reporting incidences of violence counter this association. At the state level, the presence of more female leaders, better reporting infrastructure for victims of IPV, and higher charge-sheeting rates are associated with a lower risk of IPV |
| Keywords: | Female employment, labor force participation, intimate partner violence, legal rights, institutions |
| JEL: | J01 J16 K14 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:177 |