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on Development |
| By: | Lant Pritchett (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Martina Viarengo |
| Abstract: | The first of the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations in 2015 is “End poverty in all its forms everywhere, ” which implies moving beyond “extreme poverty” to an array of poverty lines. This raises the obvious question: to complement the dollar-a-day (now P$2.15) global lower-bound poverty line, what is the global upper-bound poverty line (GUBPL)? We propose, empirically estimate, and defend a GUBPL based on two criteria. First, the global poverty line is an absolute level of material wellbeing and treats the world’s people and households equally, not relative to birthplace, residence or citizenship. Second, the distinctive property that separates the standard poverty measures (Foster, Greer, Thorbecke 1984) is that gains in household income/consumption above the poverty line count for exactly zero in reducing poverty. Our second criteria is that a GUBPL should be set at a high enough level of income/consumption that zero gains, while not literally true, is a “close enough” approximation. Our two empirical approaches, based on completely different material wellbeing indicators, both suggest a GUBPL in the range of P$19 to P$40 per person per day. This range for a GUBPL is consistent with a variety of considerations, like national poverty lines and achievement of basics and is consistent with the new World Bank “prosperity gap” standard. A GUBPL of P$21.5 has a nice “focal point” appeal as it is exactly ten times the current global lower bound of P$2.15. A poverty line of P$21.5 makes “development as poverty reduction” an inclusive and ambitious global vision, compatible with existing and future development goals. |
| Keywords: | Poverty |
| JEL: | I32 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:250 |
| By: | Tiago Cavalcanti; Pedro Molina Ogeda; Emanuel Ornelas |
| Abstract: | We examine the indirect effects of the US-China trade war on Brazil's labor market. Using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets, we construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict. Following higher exports to China, our findings reveal that regions more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US exports experienced a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills. In contrast, American tariffs on Chinese ex-ports had no significant impact on Brazilian labor markets. These results contribute to a better understanding of the intricate worldwide implications of bilateral trade wars. |
| Keywords: | trade war, trade diversion, local labor markets, Brazil |
| Date: | 2025–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2098 |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Makate, Clifton (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Tione, Sarah (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We assess the reliability of measured farm sizes (ownership holdings) in the Living Standard Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) in Ethiopia and Malawi based on three survey rounds (2012, 2014, 2016) in Ethiopia and four rounds (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019) in Malawi. Using the balanced panel of households that participated in all the rounds, we utilized the within-household variation in reported and measured ownership holdings that were mostly measured with GPSs and/or rope and compass. While this gives reliable measures of reported holdings, we detect substantial under-reporting of parcels over time within households that largely have been overlooked in previous studies. The problem causes an unrecognized bias in agricultural statistics. We find that the estimated farm sizes within survey rounds are substantially downward biased due to systematic and stochastic under-reporting of parcels. Such biases are substantial in the data from both countries, in all survey rounds, and in all regions of each country. We estimate models with alternative estimators for the ownership holding share of maximum within-household holding to examine factors associated with variation in reported farm sizes. Based on the analyses, we propose that the maximum within-household reported farm sizes over several survey rounds provide a more reliable proxy for the real farm size, as these maximum sizes are less likely to be biased due to parcel attrition. The ignorance of this non-classical measurement error is associated with a downward bias of 12-41% in average and median farm sizes and an upward bias in the Gini coefficients for farm size distributions. We propose ideas for follow-up research and improvements in collecting these data types and draw relevant policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Farm size measurement; plot attrition; measurement error; LSMS-ISA; Ethiopia; Malawi |
| JEL: | C81 C83 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2025_004 |
| By: | Chen, Natalie (University of Warwick, CAGE, CESifo, and CEPR); Novy, Dennis (University of Warwick, CAGE, CESifo, CEP/LSE, and CEPR); Solórzano, Diego (Banco de México) |
| Abstract: | In 2018 and 2019, the US administration increased tariffs on imports from China. Did these tariffs lead to more US imports from other countries such as Mexico? Using highly disaggregated data on the universe of Mexican firm-level exports, we find evidence of trade diversion from China to Mexico. We then combine the export data with detailed longitudinal employer-employee data to investigate the impact of trade diversion on labor market outcomes for workers employed by Mexican exporters. We find that trade diversion increased the labor demand of exporters exposed to US tariffs against China, resulting in more employment and higher wages, especially for low-wage workers such as female, unskilled, younger, and non-permanently insured employees. The effects were concentrated in technology and skill-intensive manufacturing industries. |
| Keywords: | Employment, exports, …rms, tari¤s, trade costs, trade diversion, wages, workers JEL Classification: F12, F14, L11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:755 |
| By: | Dorothy Bantasan; Nicolas Charette; Martino Pelli; Jeanne Tschopp |
| Abstract: | Extreme weather events, like tropical storms, pose significant threats to economies by damaging infrastructure and disrupting human capital development. This study examines the economic impacts of storms in India using microdata. We leverage estimates of storm impact on physical assets and educational attainment from the economic literature to compute a back-of-the-envelope approximation of the financial impact of storms. Using wind, firm, and demographic information, we estimate that, in 2021, damage to fixed assets reached USD2.8 billion and losses in sales in manufacturing totaled USD14.5 billion. On the other hand, the reduction in lifetime earnings due to lower educational attainment amounted to approximately USD25.0 billion. These findings highlight the importance of targeted resilience policies to mitigate the economic risks of extreme weather events. Les événements météorologiques extrêmes, comme les tempêtes tropicales, menacent gravement les économies en endommageant les infrastructures et en perturbant le développement du capital humain. À partir de microdonnées, nous analysons les impacts économiques des cyclones en Inde. En nous basant sur des estimations provenant de la littérature économique sur les effets des cyclones sur les actifs physiques et la scolarisation, nous approximons leur coût financier. En combinant des données sur la vitesse des vents, les entreprises et la démographie, nous estimons qu’en 2021 les dommages aux immobilisations ont atteint 2, 8 milliards USD, tandis que les pertes de revenus dans le secteur manufacturier ont totalisé 14, 5 milliards USD. De plus, l’impact sur les niveaux de scolarisation a réduit les revenus cumulés à vie d’environ 25 milliards USD. Ces résultats rappellent l’importance de politiques de résilience ciblées afin de limiter les risques économiques liés aux événements météorologiques extrêmes. |
| Keywords: | storms, India, economic impacts, human capital, firms, capital, tempêtes, Inde, impacts économiques, capital humain, entreprises, capital |
| Date: | 2025–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2025s-16 |
| By: | Salazar, Lina; Bernal Hernandez, Sebastian; Miranda Baez, Luis Enrique |
| Abstract: | This study employs an experimental approach to estimate both the direct and indirect effects (i.e. spillovers) of an agricultural technology adoption program on small landholder farmers in Bolivia. Specifically, the evaluation focuses on the second phase of the "Creación de Iniciativas Agroalimentarias Rurales" (CRIAR) program, which aimed to increase agricultural productivity, income, and food security among smallholder farmers through technology adoption. Implementing a two-stage randomized experiment, the study uses instrumental variable (IV) analysis to measure the local average treatment effect (LATE) of the program. The survey sample includes 1, 684 farmers, consisting of direct beneficiaries, contaminated control households, and pure control households. Findings reveal statistically significant direct effects on household income, total production value, sales, technology adoption, and crop diversification. The results also suggest that most of the direct effects intensify over time. Furthermore, the analysis confirms the presence of spillover effects, supporting the hypothesis that farmers residing near program beneficiaries receive indirect benefits. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Technology;Technology adoption;Agricultural productivity;food security;Smallholder farmers;Bolivia |
| JEL: | O13 O33 Q12 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14133 |
| By: | Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between redistributive efforts and human development in 12 Latin American countries over the period 2000–2021. With the aim of evaluating the link between both variables throughout the distribution the analysis is based on quantile regression. Overall, the results suggest that greater redistribution is associated with higher development. This result holds for all ranges of the distribution and is robust to different specifications. The analysis of the redistributive effect of taxes and government transfers is extended to the different dimensions of development —health, education and economy—, finding that education is the component that is most significantly affected by increases in redistribution. Positive coefficients are also obtained for the other two components, although they are only significant at the centre of the distribution in the case of life expectancy, and at high levels of per capita income. |
| Keywords: | income inequality; redistributive policy; taxes; government transfers; human development. JEL classification: C50; D30; E62; H50. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202417 |
| By: | Jos\'e-Ignacio Ant\'on; Ruthy Intriago; Juan Ponce |
| Abstract: | The primary goal of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) is to alleviate short-term poverty while preventing the intergenerational transmission of deprivation by promoting the accumulation of human capital among children. Although a substantial body of research has evaluated the short-run impacts of CCTs, studies on their long-term effects are relatively scarce, and evidence regarding their influence on resilience to future economic shocks is limited. As human capital accumulation is expected to enhance individuals' ability to cope with risk and uncertainty during turbulent periods, we investigate whether receiving a conditional cash transfer -- specifically, the Human Development Grant (HDG) in Ecuador -- during childhood improves the capacity to respond to unforeseen exogenous economic shocks in adulthood, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) and leveraging merged administrative data, we do not find an overall effect of the HDG on the target population. Nevertheless, we present evidence that individuals who were eligible for the programme and lived in rural areas (where previous works have found the largest effects in terms of on short-term impact) during their childhood, approximately 12 years before the pandemic, exhibited greater economic resilience to the pandemic. In particular, eligibility increased the likelihood of remaining employed in the formal sector during some of the most challenging phases of the COVID-19 crisis. The likely drivers of these results are the weak conditionality of the HDG and demand factors given the limited ability of the formal economy to absorb labour, even if more educated. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.06903 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | Latin America and the Caribbean is facing a number of development traps that pose significant obstacles to a more productive, inclusive and sustainable future. This development crisis coincides with an international context that has changed considerably in the last decade —both on the geo-economic and geopolitical fronts— and which is shifting towards a new set of rules for trade and investment. For its fortieth session, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is putting forward a new proposal analysing three transformations that are vital for moving towards a new development model: (i) a productive transformation for higher, sustained, inclusive and sustainable growth; (ii) a transformation to reduce inequality and foster inclusion and social mobility; and (iii) a transformation to boost sustainability and combat climate change. This document includes various proposals for carrying out these transformations, with a focus on how to manage them so as to overcome the development traps in the region. Managing these transformations requires improved governance; strengthening of the technical, operational, political and prospective capabilities of institutions; and the promotion of social dialogue. |
| Date: | 2024–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:c39025:80728 |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila |
| Abstract: | Climate change and increased frequency of abnormal weather are becoming growing threats to people’s livelihood, including in Central Asia. These threats are particularly challenging in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the Central Asia region. Despite the fact that migration is prevalent and remittances account for a significant share of GDP, evidence is scarce as to whether the decision to migrate is driven by weather shocks, whether migration is used as mitigating tool against adverse weather shocks, and how much of the loss in welfare is actually mitigated by such migration. This study aims to narrow this knowledge gap by providing evidence based on a unique panel dataset from one of the poorest and agriculturally dependent regions in Tajikistan (Khatlon province), combined with a detailed set of various climate data. In doing so, we apply a novel approach through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify key weather shock variables among a vast set of potential variables associated with outmigration decisions in different districts. Our results show that different types of weather shocks are associated with outmigration decisions in different districts within the province, ranging from rainfall, temperatures, drought, and windspeed in different subperiods throughout the year. Regardless, more abnormal weather is almost universally associated with more outmigration, and outmigration significantly mitigates the potentially adverse effects on household consumption and food/nutrition security in the origin households. However, more abnormal weather in the origin location is also associated with reduced remittances per month per migrant sent to the origin location. Thus, the capacity of migration to mitigate against weather shocks is still limited. Combined with migration policies that increase net earnings during migration, supplementary support to enhance climate resilience in home locations, such as climate-smart agriculture and development of the non-farm sector, remains critical. |
| Keywords: | climate change; shock; migration; extreme weather events; agriculture; food security; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2025–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:175059 |
| By: | Robert Benassai-Dalmau; Vasiliki Voukelatou; Rossano Schifanella; Stefania Fiandrino; Daniela Paolotti; Kyriaki Kalimeri |
| Abstract: | Food market accessibility is a critical yet underexplored dimension of food systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we present a continent-wide assessment of spatial food market accessibility in Africa, integrating open geospatial data from OpenStreetMap and the World Food Programme. We compare three complementary metrics: travel time to the nearest market, market availability within a 30-minute threshold, and an entropy-based measure of spatial distribution, to quantify accessibility across diverse settings. Our analysis reveals pronounced disparities: rural and economically disadvantaged populations face substantially higher travel times, limited market reach, and less spatial redundancy. These accessibility patterns align with socioeconomic stratification, as measured by the Relative Wealth Index, and moderately correlate with food insecurity levels, assessed using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Overall, results suggest that access to food markets plays a relevant role in shaping food security outcomes and reflects broader geographic and economic inequalities. This framework provides a scalable, data-driven approach for identifying underserved regions and supporting equitable infrastructure planning and policy design across diverse African contexts. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.07913 |
| By: | Abagna, Matthew Amalitinga; Hornok, Cecília; Mulyukova, Alina |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence on the impact of a prominent place-based policy – Special Economic Zones (SEZs) – on the economic well-being of African households. Exploiting time variation in SEZ establishment on a dataset of repeated cross-sections of households in 10 African countries during 1990-2020, we show that households living near SEZs become wealthier relative to the national average after SEZ establishment. The effect accrues mostly within 10 km of SEZs, is not driven by selective migration, and is accompanied byimproved access to household utilities, higher consumption of durable goods, increased educational attainment and a shift away from agricultural activities. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318396 |
| By: | Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Mariana Marchionni (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Julián Pedrazzi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Mariana Viollaz (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This effect is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations do not explain the results. |
| JEL: | J16 D72 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2028–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0351 |
| By: | Penagos Concha, Ángela María; Quesada Jiménez, Manuel Camilo; Granados Gutiérrez, Santiago |
| Abstract: | La biodiversidad es fundamental para el sostenimiento de la vida en el planeta. Sin embargo, la pérdida acelerada de los servicios ecosistémicos puede poner en riesgo la producción de elementos vitales para la humanidad como los alimentos. Adicional a ello, el financiamiento de actividades que regeneren el patrimonio natural es aún incipiente a pesar de la urgencia de las inversiones requeridas. Los sistemas agroalimentarios juegan un papel determinante en las sinergias entre la producción y la naturaleza. No obstante, se requiere avanzar en el entendimiento de los mecanismos para lograr que los flujos financieros actuales se dirijan hacia actividades que permiten incrementar la producción de alimentos logrando incrementar el patrimonio natural para garantizar la provisión de servicios ecosistémicos en el mediano y largo plazo. A partir del caso de estudio del crédito de fomento para el sector agropecuario a través del Fondo para el Financiamiento del Sector Agropecuario (Finagro), en este documento se muestra la importancia de lograr que el sistema financiero sea un vehículo de transformación para avanzar hacia sistemas agroalimentarios sostenibles y resilientes. Para ello, se requiere redireccionar los recursos actuales hacia actividades positivas para la naturaleza. |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col028:81198 |
| By: | Antonio Di Paolo (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Khalifany Ash Shidiqi (Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Indonesia.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the effect of educational attainments on interethnic marriages in Indonesia, a multi-ethnic emerging country. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Java Island obtained from the 2014 wave of the Indonesian Family Life Survey, combined with administrative data about the location and year of establishment of Higher Education Institutions (HEI). To estimate causal effects, we exploit variation in exposure to HEI by birth year and district of residence in an IV/TSLS framework. Specifically, we employ as instrument for education the number of HEI located in a radius of 10 kilometres from the centroid of the district of residence at age 18. The analysis is carried out at the individual level, with separate estimations for males and females. The results indicate that years of schooling, college attendance and completion positively affect the likelihood of exogamy, i.e. having a partner from a different ethnicity. The estimated coefficients are somewhat larger for females than for males, and all the robustness checks provide stable results, supporting their causal interpretation. The effect of schooling does not appear to be heterogeneous depending on parental education, and mixed parental ethnicity. However, it is lower for individuals with Javanese ethnicity compared to those belonging to other ethnic groups. We also analyse potential mechanisms, highlighting that migration/residential location and changes in social norms could be significant channels underlying the causal chain between higher education expansion, educational attainments, and interethnic marriages. Overall, the results reported in this paper point out that the increase in educational attainments induced by the expansion of higher education could contribute to the reduction of ethnic segregation. |
| Keywords: | Education; interethnic marriages; higher education expansion; Indonesia. JEL classification: I21, I23, J12. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202409 |
| By: | Wolfgang Stojetz; Tilman Brück; Carlo Azzarri; Erdgin Mane |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence on the impacts of armed conflict and climate change on individual labor intensity. Based on pooled labor force survey, climate, and conflict event data from 21 African countries, we document that climate change and armed conflict can create a polycrisis: the negative impacts of extreme climate events on labor intensity in and outside of agriculture are more severe in conflict environments. This interaction effect, driven by heat waves and floods, is concentrated among young people, and it is the result of violent conflict presence before a climate event occurs, not of conflict events that occur at the same time as the climate event. In addition, our results suggest that conflict contributes to gender-specific shifts in labor allocation in response to climate events exacerbating women’s work burden. Our findings emphasize the importance of concerted, evidence-based policies to tackle climate-conflict polycrises, taking into account the specific vulnerabilities shaped by individuals’ gender and age. |
| Keywords: | africa, agriculture, agrifood systems, climate, conflict, employment, gender, polycrisis, youth |
| JEL: | D74 J16 J22 O12 Q10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:430 |
| By: | Gutiérrez, Andrés; Mancero, Xavier; Guerrero, Stalyn |
| Abstract: | El diseño y formulación de políticas públicas efectivas requiere de información sobre las condiciones de vida de la población que permita identificar a las personas más necesitadas y las zonas en las que habitan. Las metodologías de estimación en áreas pequeñas han ganado creciente aceptación como un mecanismo para producir estadísticas desagregadas, con una mayor precisión de la que permiten las encuestas de hogares por sí solas. Este documento presenta una aplicación para generar cifras de pobreza, pobreza extrema e ingreso medio, desagregadas por sexo, edad, nivel educativo y grupo étnico, a nivel de la primera división administrativa de 17 países de América Latina, utilizando un modelo de regresión multinivel con postestratificación. El método combina la información proveniente de las encuestas de hogares con la que proveen los censos de población, a la que se aplica un procedimiento de actualización de estructuras demográficas, y las imágenes satelitales. |
| Date: | 2025–03–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col027:81385 |
| By: | Rukundo, Emmanuel Nshakira; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul; Gebrekidan, Bisrat Haile; Agaba, Monica; Padmaja, Subash Surendran; Dhehibi, Boubacar |
| Abstract: | A major challenge for countries dealing with conflict and instability is encouraging the use of farming technologies and natural resource management practices that are climate-smart. These practices boost productivity, build resilience to climate challenges and thus contribute to other dimensions of resilience such as those associated with conflict. In this review and meta-analysis, we assess factors associated with farmers' adoption decisions for such technologies and practices. We use advanced machine learning tools to analyze over 42, 000 published papers. Focusing on countries identified as fragile due to either climate shocks or conflict, we select 109 papers and extract 1330 coefficients and implement partial correlation coefficient analysis. Our findings show that most of the research comes from two countries; Ethiopia and Nigeria and we do not find any studies from Small Island States. We categorized the technologies into five technology groups, including soil health, erosion management, mechanization, input use and risk reduction technologies. Analysis reveals that factors such as farmer training, access to information, subsidies, and past experiences of using technologies predicts further technology adoption. However, there are significant differences across various technology groups and most especially, a very low coverage of risk-reduction technologies such as insurance. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture technology adoption, climate change, fragility, determinants |
| JEL: | Q12 Q16 Q20 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:319082 |