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on Development |
| By: | Berniell, Inés; Marchionni, Mariana; Pedrazzi, Julián; Viollaz, Mariana |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. We rely on a Regression Discontinuity design that compares municipalities where women narrowly won the election with those where men narrowly won. This strategy allows us to identify the causal effect of a woman winning the mayoral election. We find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation in the municipalities with Amazon biome. Specifically, when a woman wins the election, annual greenhouse gas emissions decrease by 1, 510 thousand tons of CO2e per municipality in the Amazon. This effect alone represents 23% of the average annual emissions of all municipalities within the Amazon biome and 6.4% of Brazil's nationwide average. This reduction is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. Specifically, female-led municipalities in the Amazon experience a reduction in deforestation, with a 3 percentage-point decrease in the loss of forest formations relative to the baseline forest cover. This represents a 32% reduction compared to deforestation levels in the comparison municipalities. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations and the level of education of elected female and male mayors do not explain the results. |
| Keywords: | gender;climate change;Mayoral elections;Amazon |
| JEL: | J16 D72 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14088 |
| By: | Choonsung Lim; Yue Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the short- and medium-term economic impacts of natural disasters, focusing on Pacific Island Countries (PICs) and using global high-frequency nightlight data in addition to macroeconomic data. In this paper, we identify significant short-term effects on growth following natural disasters, which are exacerbated by high public debt and heightened climate vulnerability. Although the negative impacts generally diminish within a year for most countries, PICs face disproportionately larger and rising short-term disruptions (-1.4 percent of annual potential growth) and persistent medium-term consequences. Further analysis of PICs' fiscal, external, and real sectors following severe disasters using annual economic data reveals that weaker fiscal positions, partly driven by reduced output, may lead to an upward trend in public debt, and increased imports may deteriorate current account balances over the medium term. These findings underscore the need for robust counter-cyclical policies and proactive investments in climate resilience to mitigate the adverse effects of climate shocks and promote long-term economic stability |
| Keywords: | Climate change; natural disasters; growth; development; nightlight |
| Date: | 2025–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/084 |
| By: | Asker, Erdal (University of West Georgia); Rees, Daniel I. (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Agüero, Jorge (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of having an older sister on the likelihood that girls in sub-Saharan Africa marry before reaching adulthood. Relying on the randomness of the firstborn sibling’s sex, we show that having an older sister (as opposed to an older brother) reduces the likelihood of marrying before the age of 18 by 1.5 percent. In addition, we find that older sisters reduce the likelihood that their younger sisters become sexually active as a teenager, reduce the likelihood that their younger sisters give birth as a teenager, and increase their younger sisters’ awareness of HIV/AIDS. The estimated effects on childhood marriage are largest in more conservative societies (as measured by the Social Institutions and Gender Index), suggesting that the protective role played by firstborn sisters can be especially important when access to accurate information about sex and reproductive rights is limited. |
| Keywords: | teenage sexual activity, older sisters, child marriage, reproductive health |
| JEL: | I12 J12 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17867 |
| By: | Thaline do Prado; Marcelo Santos; Bernardus Van Doornik |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of enforcing compliance with labor regulations on firm dynamics by combining firm-level administrative records and labor inspection data on formal Brazilian establishments committing “unregistered employee” infractions. We first provide suggestive evidence that inspected firms employing informal workers are more likely to exit following a labor inspection, compared to firms never penalized for such infractions. Next, we apply a difference-in-differences framework using firms not yet penalized for “unregistered employee” infractions as the control group to estimate the effect of labor inspections on firm-level outcomes. We find that formal employment and formal labor hiring experience a positive spike in the year of the inspection, indicating the formalization of unregistered employees. However, formal employment declines steadily over time, dropping nearly 60% by the fourth year after inspection. Among firms with active bank relationships, revenue falls sharply by about 24% over the same period. We also observe a persistent reduction in the outstanding loan amount and significant rise in the non-performing loan ratio. The average formal wage drops by about 1% in the year of inspection, but returns to pre-inspection levels in later years. Our findings are consistent with firms reducing their overall labor usage due to higher labor costs, which arise from increased compliance with labor regulations following a labor inspection. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:622 |
| By: | Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Warner, James; Missiame, Arnold Kwesi |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is central to Rwanda's economy, supporting the livelihood of about 70% of the population and contributing significantly to GDP. Smallholder farmers face many production challenges such as limited use of modern inputs, low productivity, and vulnerability to climate change. Despite efforts like the Crop Intensification Program and the Smart Nkunganire System, which aim to en hance access to resources, agricultural productivity remains suboptimal for Rwanda smallholder farmers. This study seeks to identify specific sources of technical inefficiencies among smallholder farmers, focusing on the total value of farmer’s crop output. By using stochastic frontier analysis, a robust quantitative method for separating inefficiencies and random shocks, the study assessed the overall technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda and identified the key factors influencing crop output value. The analysis reveals that fertilizer use, pesticide application, labor, seed use, and land size are key drivers of crop output value. This research further indicates that farmers operate at only 45% of their potential productivity, given the same level of input and technology, highlighting substantial room for efficiency improvements to reach the optimal output value frontier. Furthermore, additional analysis emphasizes the critical role of socioeconomic factors in shaping technical efficiency. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to optimize resource utilization, streamline labor allocation and strengthen access to extension services and government initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural production value. These strategies can substantially improve technical efficiency, enabling farmers to achieve optimal crop output values and advancing Rwanda's agricultural development objectives. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; smallholders; stochastic models; crops; agricultural development; Rwanda; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:rsspwp:174560 |
| By: | Alviarez, Vanessa; Blyde, Juan S. |
| Abstract: | Trade flows are the result of the interaction between buyers and sellers. Understanding how these firm-to-firm relationships form, survive, and evolve over time helps identify how countries can improve their export outcomes. Using a very granular dataset of United States import transactions from all countries around the world, we present a battery of static and dynamic metrics of firm-to-firm relationships. We show how Latin American exporters compare with exporters from other regions across all the metrics. We show that trade costs negatively affect the formation and duration of firm-to-firm networks. Regional differences in these costs partially explain Latin Americas performance. The study discusses a series of measures to reduce trade-related cots in the region that, in light of the results, are likely to improve the trade networks of Latin American countries. |
| Keywords: | Trade networks;Supply Chains;exports |
| JEL: | F12 F14 L22 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14092 |
| By: | Heckelman, Jac C; Wilson, Bonnie |
| Abstract: | Employing a political economy perspective, we seek to understand the seeming failure of aid to promote institutional reform. A la Stigler's theory of regulatory capture, we suppose that institutions are determined via a process of exchange and that special interest groups may capture institutions. We interpret grants of aid as a shock to the market for institutions and hypothesize that the impact of aid on institutional reform is conditional on the influence of groups. Based on a panel of 92 aid-receiving nations, we find evidence consistent with a political economy perspective and our hypothesis. In particular, we find that aid has had a positive impact on reform in countries with especially low levels of market-orientation in institutions and middling to large numbers of groups, and that aid has been associated with back-sliding on reform in many other countries. |
| Keywords: | aid, reform, institutions, special interest groups |
| JEL: | O1 O19 P11 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124542 |
| By: | Ingo Borchert (University of Sussex); Mattia Di Ubaldo (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how exporting firms in India respond to the removal of preferential market access abroad. We exploit episodes of unexpected graduations from the EU Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), whereby the EU removes preferential (i.e. lower than MFN) GSP tariffs from beneficiary countries in sectors in which they are considered to be internationally competitive. Graduations impact on Indian firms in a variety of ways. First, graduations lead to an increase in the likelihood of firms exiting exporting altogether and, for surviving exporters, to a reduction in the total value exported. Second, we find a strong knockon effect from reduced export opportunities to lower purchases of both foreign and domestic inputs. Looking at quantity and prices of sales and inputs separately, we find that firms react mainly along the price margin as unit prices of both sales and purchases fall. Third, graduations trigger a substitution response: firms’ product scope shrinks, and resources are re-oriented internally towards non-affected products, whose sales increase in the aftermath of graduations. |
| Keywords: | GSP, trade preferences, graduations, firms |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0125 |
| By: | Bagnoli, Lisa Serena; Delgado, Lucia; Luza, Jerónimo; Mitnik, Oscar A.; Pasman, Clara; Serebrisky, Tomás |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced a significant increase in natural disasters, posing significant threats to infrastructure and economic activity, particularly in regions with poor infrastructure. Understanding the patterns in recovery time after disasters is key to designing accurate responses to natural hazards. In this paper, we develop a methodological approach and use Hurricane Odile, which struck Baja California Sur, Mexico, in September 2014, as a case study to understand the recovery paths following such disasters. We rely on nighttime lights data to capture the initial impact and eventual recovery of electricity service and economic activity in the area of impact of the hurricane. We find that the average luminosity dropped to 78% of pre-hurricane levels immediately after the event and did not fully recover within a year. Impacts are heterogeneous, with localities such as Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo experiencing more severe impacts and slower recovery compared to La Paz, which recovered faster. These results suggest that disaster evaluation, mitigation policies, and preventive measures against disaster impacts should be tailored to local realities. |
| Keywords: | Resilience;natural disasters;electricity;Economic activity recovery;nighttime light;Hurricane;Mexico |
| JEL: | O13 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14098 |
| By: | Muñoz, Ercio |
| Abstract: | I provide estimates of intergenerational mobility (IGM) in education at a disaggregated geographic level for Chile, a country with high school-level stratification by socioeconomic status and a decentralized administration of public schools. I document wide variation across communes. Relative mobility is correlated to the number of doctors, the number of students per teacher, and earnings inequality. Using a LASSO, I find that the share of students enrolled in public schools, the number of students per teacher, population density, and municipal budget are the strongest predictors of IGM. I also document within-country variability in how parental education is associated with other children's outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Socioeconomic mobility;Geography;Intergenerational mobility in Education;Education |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14086 |
| By: | Lucas Argentieri Mariani; Mattia Longhi; Silvia Marchesi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how enhanced government accountability can mitigate the political resource curse during capital windfalls. We exploit two quasi-natural experiments in South Africa: the countrys 2012 inclusion in the Citigroup World Government Bond Index (WGBI) and the leak of a major corruption scandal twelve years earlier. Contrary to evidence linking resource booms to favoritism, we find that preferential grant allocations to municipalities connected to cabinet members declined following the sovereign inflow. Heightened salience of past corruption strengthened accountability, driving these results. Our findings underscore the critical role of accountability in promoting equitable resource distribution during financial inflows. |
| Keywords: | Resource curse, Accountability, Favoritism, Elite capture, South Africa. |
| JEL: | D72 F32 H63 H72 H77 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:552 |
| By: | J. Vernon Henderson; Francisco Libano-Monteiro; Martina Manara; Guy Michaels; Tanner Regan |
| Abstract: | Urban planning has shaped cities for millennia, demarcating property rights and mitigating coordination failures, but its rigidities often conflict with market-driven development, which reflects preferences. Although planning is widespread in high-income countries, rapidly growing cities in the developing world are characterized by urban informality. Despite its importance, urban planning lacks an economic framework to evaluate planners' choices. This paper offers a starting framework and applies it to a flagship project in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, which partitioned greenfield land on the urban fringe into more than 36, 000 formal plots that people purchased and built homes on. To study this project, we assemble a novel dataset using administrative records, satellite imagery, and primary surveys. We develop and estimate a dynamic model in which planning design constrains the decisions of households of varying incomes to sort into formal areas. This model complements our reduced-form analysis, which uses within-neighborhood variation and spatial RD to study planning choices' effects. We find that the project secured property rights and access, raised land values relative to unplanned areas, and attracted highly educated owners. Within project areas, access to main paved roads, gridded layouts, and natural amenities are valued; plot development and public service provision have been slow; and the price elasticity of bare land with respect to plot size is -0.5. Counterfactual analysis using the model shows that while land value maximization involves the provision of larger plots, welfare maximization entails the provision of smaller plots to serve more lower-income people. |
| Keywords: | urban planning, economic development, Africa. |
| JEL: | R58 R31 O18 R14 O21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11860 |
| By: | Annadurai, Gopinath (Indian Institute of Management Bangalore); Sahoo, Soham (Loughborough University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the First-Generation Graduate Scholarship scheme implemented in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, which waives tuition fees for first-generation college students in technical education. Using household survey data in difference-in-differences (DiD) and synthetic DiD frameworks, we find substantial improvements in enrollment, stream choice, and graduation in technical courses, with downstream effects on regular employment, occupational choices, and household welfare. Male students gained more than female students. The scheme also increased reliance on education loans to cover residual costs. Our findings highlight how targeting intergenerational disadvantages through education policy can influence educational choices and produce positive labour market returns. |
| Keywords: | first-generation graduates, technical courses, tuition fee waiver, higher education, stream choice, labour market outcomes |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17879 |
| By: | Hammed Adededji Adetokunbo; Blaise Gnimassoun; Anthony Simpasa |
| Abstract: | Contrary to popular belief, the majority of Africans who leave their country remain in Africa and contribute to shaping the economic performance of the continent. This paper investigates the effects of intra-African immigration on the current account in African countries over the past thirty years. To this end, we use a panel data approach and a gravity-based 2SLS estimation strategy to overcome the potential endogeneity bias. We find that intra-African immigration has a positive, strong and robust impact on the current account of African countries. In particular, intra-African immigration contributes to significantly improve the trade balance of African countries, including inside and outside the continent. Further investigations reveal that the strengthening of intra-African trade or the reduction of trade extroversion as well as the demographic vitality favoured by intra-African immigration are the mechanisms behind these results. Thus, full implementation of the African Union protocol on free movement of people between countries can deepen regional integration and help reduce structural current account deficits that countries face. |
| Keywords: | international migration, current account, trade, Africa. |
| JEL: | F14 F22 F32 O55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-03 |
| By: | Sophie Hatte (ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon, CERGIC - Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Jordan Loper (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Thomas Taylor (EUI - European University Institute - Institut Universitaire Européen) |
| Abstract: | Can social media help promote female access to political positions? Using data from 8, 814 parliamentary races across 17 sub-Saharan African countries, we explore this question in a context of significant political underrepresentation of women and rising Facebook penetration over the past decade. We leverage the staggered introduction of Facebook's Free Basics-i.e., free access to Facebook through partner mobile operators-across constituencies and time, documenting the success of this connectivity shock and its subsequent effect on female political representation. We find that the availability of Facebook's Free Basics significantly increases the election of female candidates, but only after one electoral cycle. This effect is driven by female candidates endorsed by established political parties and running for the first time. Uncovering the underlying mechanisms, we document a large, positive relationship between social media use and egalitarian gender norms, particularly regarding women in politics. Examining users' online network structures, we show that this association is driven by exposure to diverse and progressive content, and that such online connections are key to Free Basics' electoral impact. Finally, we find that Free Basics' effect is contingent on the presence of fair elections but is amplified where traditional press freedom is limited. |
| Keywords: | Social media, Mobile internet, Gender norms, Elections, Candidate selection |
| Date: | 2025–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-05056150 |
| By: | Immervoll, Herwig (OECD, Paris); Antía, Florencia (Universidad de la República, Uruguay); Knotz, Carlo (Bremen International Graduate School of Social Sciences); Rossel, Cecilia (Universidad de la República, Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | Cash benefit programmes have increasingly emphasised conditionality and “demanding” forms of activation in recent decades. Behavioural requirements are now a key element in reforms of unemployment benefits (UB) and related out-of-work benefits in high-income OECD countries, and they are the defining feature of Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs in many emerging economies, notably in Latin America (LA). In existing research, developments in the two regions have been studied separately from each other, limiting our understanding of commonalities and differences as inputs into policy debates and theory development. We address this gap using three comparative and longitudinal databases on benefit conditionality rules and policy trajectories in Europe, North America, Australasia, and LA. Behavioural requirements varied markedly across regions. They were initially less stringent for LA’s CCTs than for UB programmes in OECD countries, but the gap has narrowed as requirements in LA’s CCT programmes became more demanding. The strictness of requirements was more volatile in LA than in other regions. Although strictness initially varied strongly across LA, the region recently saw faster convergence than high-income OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | welfare conditionality, OECD, Latin America, comparative analysis, activation, unemployment benefits, CCT |
| JEL: | I38 J08 J68 J65 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17869 |
| By: | Juergen Bitzer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Bernhard C. Dannemann (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Erkan Goeren (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Keywords: | Geo-Referenced Aid Projects, Geo-Referenced Conflicts, Africa, Sub-Annual Analysis, Grid-Cell Analysis, GIS Data, ACLED, World Bank |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:452 |
| By: | Joubert, Clement (World Bank); Kanth, Priyanka (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Low- and middle-income countries are experiencing fast population aging and reductions in extreme poverty, increasing theoretical incentives to save for old age, but empirical evidence on household wealth accumulation over the life cycle is lacking. Using age-cohort-time decompositions on 18 years of micro-data from Pakistan, we show that the average household accumulates wealth equivalent to 5 years’ worth of consumption between the ages of 25 and 65. Furthermore, this is mostly in the form of illiquid residential housing and land in rural areas. Examination of housing acquisitions, renovations, and dwelling characteristics over the life cycle reveals that wealth accumulation in 2001-2018 resulted partly from active investment in housing and partly from capital gains. To the extent that keeping all wealth in the form of housing may be sub-optimal, this constrained ability to save for the long term could motivate the extension of contributory pension instruments to informal sector workers, the majority of the workforce in this setting. |
| Keywords: | social protection, savings, informality, aging |
| JEL: | D14 D15 J11 J26 J46 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17876 |
| By: | Bertranou, Fabio; Gontero, Sonia |
| Abstract: | Labour institutions and the labour market are fundamental to progress and sustainable development. Workers are the primary resource in productive processes, and labour income is the main source of household income. What happens in the world of work reflects the intersection of economic and productive policies with those of a social and institutional nature. This article reviews the labour performance of Latin America over the past three decades. During this period, the region has experienced numerous advances, but considerable challenges persist that slow down and inhibit the path to better outcomes, which would allow for greater productivity, improved working conditions and wages, and a more equitable distribution of the fruits of progress. To face the new challenges associated with demographic, technological, and environmental transitions, it is necessary to develop comprehensive policies that promote growth, the quantity and quality of jobs, along with the strengthening of labour institutions. |
| Keywords: | Work, Employment, Social Protection, Labour Protection, Latin America |
| JEL: | J2 J20 J46 J50 J80 J81 J88 N36 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124627 |