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on Development |
| By: | Aparajita Dasgupta (Ashoka University); Devvrat Raghav (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | How does access to infrastructure mediate the processes of structural transformation in the presence of climate shocks? By exploiting a large-scale rural road construction program in India, we ask whether rural road connectivity can preserve the gains from structural transformation in emerging markets. In comparison to the existing literature, we provide a newer framework to study the effects of road infrastructure access in mitigating the impact of climate shocks on structural transformation. The program roll out criteria allows us to employ a fuzzy difference-in-discontinuity design to provide the first line of causal evidence in this area. Overall, we find a mixed effect of rural road connectivity on agricultural participation. Interestingly, we find that while road connectivity enables exits from farm labour it also raises the share of households in cultivation. Importantly, while temperature shocks drive down local demand, this effect is somewhat counteracted by access to paved roads. Our results suggest the role of rural infrastructure policies in alleviating the burden of rising temperature, which has first order policy relevance in the context of designing policy instruments to tackle long-term climate change, not just within the country but for all rural regions across the developing world. |
| Keywords: | Climate Shocks; India; Infrastructure; Labour markets; Road access |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:122 |
| By: | Jacopo Lunghi; Maurizio Malpede; Marco Percoco |
| Abstract: | This study shows how soil aridity (proxied with a measure of soil potential evapotranspiration) impacts child wellbeing in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using climate and infant health data from a grid of approximately 4, 000 cells in 34 African countries, we find that infants born in arid areas are comparatively more likely to die under the age of 5 and be systematically underweight at birth. In addition, we show how the aridity measure in this study reduces the effect of rainfall on child wellbeing and how aridification drives substantial heterogeneity in the estimated response to increasing precipitation. The findings are combined with model projections of future climate conditions to emphasize the importance of accounting for aridity alongside precipitations when assessing the economic impact of climate. |
| Keywords: | Rainfall, climate change, potential evapotranspiration, child mortality, infant health |
| JEL: | J1 J13 I15 Q54 Q56 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcu:greewp:greenwp23 |
| By: | Nicola Francescutto |
| Abstract: | I employ geo-coded household-level data over 2015-2016 combined with a gridded dataset to quantify the impact of marine heatwaves on labor market outcomes in coastal India. I construct an average measure of exposure to marine heatwaves for each household and find that one additional degree heating week increases the probability of being unemployed by 1.9-2.3 percentage points. The effect is larger for households experiencing higher levels of marine heat stress, with an increased probability to be unemployed of 5.5-6.5 percentage points. Other findings highlight a decreased probability to work in the fisheries sector, an increased labor market participation of women as well as a lower chance of having a full year employment after a marine heatwave. These findings highlight the potential socio-economic challenges that climate change may pose to coastal households in the coming decades. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, marine heatwaves, India, Household survey |
| JEL: | I15 O10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:25-04 |
| By: | Rajveer Jat (University of California, Riverside, USA); Bharat Ramaswami (Ashoka University) |
| Abstract: | The literature has debated whether the productivity gap between agriculture and non-agriculture reflects mobility barriers or selection. Non-agriculture is not a homogenous category. In developing countries, most of non-agricultural employment is informal. Could it be that the productivity gap is driven by formal sector firms that are numerically small but economically substantial? This paper compares the productivity of agriculture to the informal and formal non-farm sectors in India. The comparison controls for sectoral differences in hours worked, human capital and labor share of value added. The paper finds substantial productivity gaps with the formal sector but small and negligible gaps with the informal non-farm sector. Between 40-50% of non-farm workers are in sectors not more productive than agriculture. These findings suggest that the primary dualism in development is between the formal non-farm sector and the informal sector including agriculture. |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:130 |
| By: | Francis Addeah Darko; Akankshita Dey; Ritadhi, S. K. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the complex relationships between rainfall shocks, agricultural productivity, and rural economic activity in Rajasthan, India’s largest state. Using district-level agricultural data from 1990 to 2015, enterprise surveys from 2010 to 2016, and household consumption data from 2014 to 2016, the research analyzes three key relationships. First, positive rainfall shocks increase agricultural productivity by approximately 7 percent compared to negative shocks, with irrigation infrastructure significantly moderating this effect. Second, these weather-induced agricultural productivity changes have substantial spillover effects on rural non-farm enterprises, particularly those engaged in retail trade. Specifically, positive rainfall shocks in-crease enterprise revenues by 25.7 percent and value-addition by 30.3 percent, primarily through increased local demand for non-tradable goods. Third, rural household consumption responds positively to favorable rainfall conditions, with monthly per capita expenditures increasing by 6 percent during positive rainfall shocks. This increase is predominantly driven by higher spending on luxury goods rather than essential items, supporting the demand-side channel through which weather shocks affect non-farm enterprise performance. These findings highlight the strong interconnections between agricultural conditions and non-farm economic activity in rural areas, with important implications for policies aimed at building rural economic resilience in the context of increasing weather variability. |
| Date: | 2025–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11079 |
| By: | Aranya Chakraborty (Ahmedabad University); Digvijay Singh Negi (Ashoka University); Rahul Rao (Ahmedabad University) |
| Abstract: | Does information and communication technology (ICT) based provision of agricultural extension services help improve agricultural productivity in poor or developing countries? We answer this question in the case of rice production in rural Bangladesh. We exploit the spatiotemporal variation in the availability of village-level phone services and the temporal variation in the timing of an ICT-based intervention to identify the differential impact by input use, network centrality, and geographic proximity. We observe that, in the villages with access to phone service, there is a 50 percent reduction in plot-level inefficiency after the intervention, driven by plots that used rainfed water for cultivation. We provide evidence suggesting that these effects are due to increased input use by the farmers using rainfed farming. Our results also document that the intervention benefits geographically remote farmers differentially more, whose information needs are otherwise unfulfilled by traditional extension services. However, the diffusion of information via networks remains relevant as we document significant cross-community spill overs through geographic ties. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; Extension; ICT; Inefficiency; networks |
| Date: | 2024–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:124 |
| By: | Neryvia Pillay; Chloe Allison; Kathryn Bankart |
| Abstract: | We study a South African social grant programme that provides unconditional cash transfers to children. Since its introduction in 1998, the age-eligibility threshold for the child support grant was progressively extended from children under 7 to children under 18. Making use of household survey data, we use a difference-in-difference identification strategy that exploits the variation in grant eligibility across age groups generated by these age-eligibility changes to study how cash transfers in childhood can affect long-run labour market outcomes. We find that childhood grant eligibility has no effect on labour market participation, employment and wages in young adulthood. We do find evidence of a negative effect on male labour market participation and wages |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11071 |
| By: | Francis Addeah Darko; Akankshita Dey; Ritadhi, S. K. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines rural non-farm employment in Rajasthan, India, using multiple surveys and administrative data. The analysis covers three key aspects: individual and district-level determinants of participation in non-farm activities, the relationship between non-farm employment and household welfare, and barriers faced by rural enterprises. The findings show that secondary education strongly predicts participation in non-farm activities, particularly in skilled service sector jobs. However, women and socially marginalized groups face significant barriers in accessing non-farm employment, especially in higher-paying occupations. Households with members in regular non-farm employment, particularly in services, show significantly higher consumption levels, while casual non-farm work yields welfare levels similar to agricultural labor. Rural enterprises face multiple constraints, with lack of local demand and limited access to credit emerging as key barriers to business performance. The results suggest that although non-farm employment can substantially improve household welfare, access to better-paying opportunities remains highly unequal. Policy interventions should ad-dress both human capital development and structural barriers to create more inclusive access to non-farm employment opportunities. |
| Date: | 2025–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11080 |
| By: | Saloni Khurana (IIFT andWorld Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA); Kanika Mahajan (Ashoka University, Rajiv Gandhi Education City, Haryana, India, 131029.); Kunal Sen (UNU-WIDER, Katajanokanlaituri 6 B FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland & University of Manchester.) |
| Abstract: | Using nationally representative data on employment and earnings, this paper documents a fall in wage inequality in India over the last two decades. It then examines the role played by increasing minimum wages for the lowest skilled workers in India in contributing to the observed decline. Exploiting regional variation in changes in minimum wages over time in the country, we find that a 1% increase in minimum wages led to a 0.17% increase in wages for workers in the lowest quintile. This effect is smaller at upper wage quintiles and insignificant for the highest wage quintile. Counterfactual wage estimations show that the increase in minimum wages explains 26% of the decline in wage inequality in India during 1999-2018. These findings underscore the important role played by rising minimum wages in reducing wage disparities in India. |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:139 |
| By: | Tanu Gupta (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.); Md. Tajuddin Khan (Roanoke College, Salem, Virginia, United States.); Digvijay Singh Negi (Ashoka University, Sonepat, Haryana, India.) |
| Abstract: | We study the linkages between electrification, activity participation and time use of individuals in rural Bangladesh. We find that households’ access to grid electricity positively correlates with the likelihood of males participating in non-farm work and females participating in agriculture. In electrified households, females reallocate time from domestic work and caregiving to more leisure and farming. Household access to electricity is positively associated with greater ownership of appliances like fans, refrigerators, televisions, and mobile phones. Moreover, we observe a greater likelihood of electrified households irrigating via electrical pumps and using female family labor on their farms. Electrification is also positively associated with women’s involvement in decisions regarding farm-related activities and household expenses. The findings suggest that in farming communities, agriculture may play a critical role in the link between rural electrification, women’s workforce participation, and household bargaining power. |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:137 |
| By: | Bonander, Carl; Hammar, Olle; Jakobsson, Niklas; Bensch, Gunther; Holzmeister, Felix; Brodeur, Abel |
| Abstract: | Islam (2019) reports results from a randomized field experiment in Bangladesh that examines the effects of parent-teacher meetings on student test scores in primary schools. The reported findings suggest strong positive effects across multiple subjects. In this report, we demonstrate that the school-level randomization cannot have been conducted as the author claims. Specifically, we show that the nine included Bangladeshi unions all have a share of either 0% or 100% treated or control schools. Additionally, we uncover irregularities in baseline scores, which for the same students and subjects vary systematically across the author's data files in ways that are unique to either the treatment or control group. We also discovered data on two unreported outcomes and data collected from the year before the study began. Results using these data cast further doubt on the validity of the original study. Moreover, in a survey asking parents to evaluate the parent-teacher meetings, we find that parents in the control schools were more positive about this intervention than those in the treated schools. We also find undisclosed connections to two additional RCTs. |
| Keywords: | Reproduction, Student outcomes, Field experiments, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | B41 C12 I25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:214 |
| By: | Balasubramanian, Chitra; Sandra Baquie; Alan Fuchs |
| Abstract: | The Middle East and North Africa faces significant climate challenges, such as increasing temperatures, heightened flood risks, frequent droughts, and growing air pollution issues. These challenges are compounded by the large proportion of the population living below the poverty line in some countries in the region. Indeed, people living in poverty are more exposed to poor air quality and natural disasters as they disproportionately tend to live in hazard-prone areas. They are also more vulnerable as they may have scarcer resources to cope with shocks. This paper combines remote sensing, geospatial data, and household surveys to provide high-resolution assessments of the exposure and vulnerability of the region’s population and poor people to four types of climate shocks. With the data available, the paper estimates that almost the entirety of the extreme poor population is exposed to at least one climate shock. The region hosts climate-poverty hot spots in the Republic of Yemen and Morocco, where adaptation to climate change will be crucial to end poverty. The resulting high-resolution estimates of exposure and vulnerability can inform the targeting of climate adaptation measures. |
| Date: | 2025–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11092 |
| By: | Yatish Arya (Department of Economics, Ashoka University); Amit Chaudhary (Gillmore Centre for Financial Technology, Warwick Business School, United Kingdom); Anisha Garg (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | Religious groups sometimes resist welfare-enhancing interventions, impacting human capital. Can resistance to secular education arise when rulers sharing religious identity with a group are deposed by foreign powers? Focusing on colonial India, we analyze the impact of shared religious identity between deposed local rulers and religious groups on literacy. Muslim literacy is lower where British authorities replaced a Muslim ruler, and Hindu literacy is lower when the ousted ruler was Hindu. Addressing OVB, we use literacy differences, complemented by an IV approach. Our results show that the effect of shared religious identity on literacy rates depended on the historical ties between deposed rulers and their subjects: in districts where ousted rulers had historical connections to their co-religionists, there was greater resistance to education introduced by the colonizers. |
| Date: | 2025–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:138 |
| By: | Stöcker, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of female labour force participation (FLFP) and female wage employment (FWE) of urban women in four SSA countries: Benin, Senegal, Uganda and Zambia. Using extensive micro-level data and a unified empirical framework, we investigate the multitude of constraints women face in both these dimensions. The methodology tries to bridge the drawbacks of typical macro-level cross-country studies and detailed country case studies, enabling direct comparisons over time and across countries. Key findings highlight substantial cross-country heterogeneity in barriers to female employment, including education, household wealth, motherhood, and male breadwinner norms. While higher education consistently enhances FLFP and FWE, motherhood negatively affects wage employment more persistently than labour force participation. Interaction effects between barriers, such as motherhood and male breadwinner norms, underscore their compounded impact. Additionally, local labour market conditions, namely the variety of occupations available, moderate these barriers, amplifying disadvantages for women in labour markets with higher levels of occupational variety. The study emphasises the importance of context-specific policy interventions. Recommendations include vocational training in Benin, advocacy for shifting restrictive norms in Senegal, targeted support for labour market transitions in Uganda, and addressing male breadwinner norms in Zambia. Future research should delve deeper into how labour market transitions influence female employment and how negative consequences can be remedied. |
| Keywords: | Female Labour Force Participation, Wage Employment, Gender Equality, Sub-Saharan Africa, Employment Barriers, Context-Specific Policies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:313625 |
| By: | Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Mukhopadhyay, Anwesh (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We review the present-day impacts of colonial rule on former colonies. Persistence exists because of multiple equilibria, path dependence, institutions, culture, knowledge, and technology. Empirical work in this literature primarily uses tools from applied econometrics, though best practices are needed to overcome the limitations of these tools. Colonial interventions relating to institutions, infrastructure, land, forced labour, the slave trade, and human capital all have measurable impacts in the present. And yet many colonial interventions have failed to persist or have led to reversals. These cases are informative about why colonial rule still matters, as are cases where precolonial influences have had persistent impacts despite, or even because of, colonial rule. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1557 |
| By: | Dawit Kelemework Mekonnen; Abate, Gashaw T.; Yimam, Seid; Benfica, Rui; Spielman, David J.; Place, Frank |
| Abstract: | Several factors contribute to the limited use of improved seed varieties in Ethiopia. Among those, on the supply side, is the restricted availability of seeds in the volume, quality, and timeliness required by farmers, partly due to inadequate public and private investment in the sector. Beginning in 2011, the Government of Ethiopia introduced a novel experiment—the direct seed marketing approach—to reduce some of the centralized, state-run attributes of the country’s seed market and rationalize the use of public resources. Direct seed marketing was designed to incentivize private and public seed producers to sell directly to farmers rather than through the state apparatus. This study is the first quantitative evaluation of the impact of direct seed marketing on indicators of a healthy seed system: access to quality seeds and farm-level productivity. Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach suitable to handling variation in treatment timing, the study finds that direct seed marketing led to an increase of 15 percentage points in the proportion of farmers purchasing maize seed, an increase of 45 percent in the quantity of maize seed purchased per hectare, and an increase of 18 percent in maize yield. However, there are differences across crops, with the effects of dir ect seed marketing on wheat seed purchases and yields being statistically insignificant. These crop-specific differences in performance are likely explained by differences in the reproductive biology of maize (particularly maize hybrids) and wheat, which tend to incentivize commercial activity in hybrid maize seed markets more than in self-pollinating wheat or open-pollinated maize markets. These differences suggest a need for nuanced policy responses, institutional arrangements, and market development strategies to accelerate the adoption of improved varieties. |
| Date: | 2025–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11078 |