|
on Development |
| By: | Matita, Mirriam; Zingwe, David; Dizon, Felipe Jr Fadullon |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of farm input subsidies, food and cash transfers, and irrigation investments on the dietary diversity, food consumption scores, and coping strategy index in Malawi. Despite the potential for synergies to address a range of vulnerabilities affecting food consumption, very few studies focus on combined program effects. The analysis employs three-waves of integrated household panel surveys for Malawi from 2013, 2016, and 2019, and uses instrumental variable Poisson and Tobit regression to address endogeneity. The findings show weak joint program participation effects, which may be due to program design or data limitations in this evaluation. Households that receive food and cash transfers showed improvements in diet diversity and the food consumption score. Input subsidies were less effective in helping households cope with food insecurity and reduced diet diversity and the food consumption score. This suggests that overreliance on agricultural input subsidies may lead to reduced variety in food consumption. Policies that are aimed at more linkages between programs should also diversity and rebalance public spending to reduce food and nutrition insecurity. |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10778 |
| By: | Garance Genicot; Maria Hernandez-de-Benito |
| Abstract: | Does the absence of missing baby girls in sub-Saharan Africa imply a lack of son preference in the region? This paper uncovers systematic gendered effects on family structure and fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys, we show that having a firstborn daughter, rather than a son, significantly influences women’s family dynamics. Women with a female firstborn experience higher long-term marriage rates but are less likely to marry the child’s father when the birth occurs prior to formal union. They also face higher divorce rates and greater likelihood of entering polygamous unions. Despite these marital transitions, they tend to have more children. Our analysis further reveals that having a firstborn daughter is associated with poorer living standards and adverse health outcomes for mothers. To examine the mechanisms driving these patterns, we employ a geographic regression discontinuity design along ancestral ethnic borders separating matrilineal and patrilineal traditions. This approach highlights patrilineality as a key driver, shaping both marriage dynamics and fertility. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 O1 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33505 |
| By: | Bloem, Jeffrey Richard; Damon, Amy; Francis, David C.; Mitchell, Harrison |
| Abstract: | Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled—mostly agricultural—communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and resources, in part, due to a changing climate. This paper uses panel data from 2010 through 2019 to study the labor responses of individuals to exposure to herder-related violence during the post-planting and post-harvest seasons. Specifically, it considers a “shadow of violence” channel, where recent exposure to a violent event alters labor-related responses to a subsequent event. Results find that in the post-planting season, exposure to a herder-related violent event leads to an increase in informal work for both men and women, a decrease in agricultural work for men, and an increase in total hours worked for women among households that have previously been exposed to herder-related violence in the preceding six months. The paper also considers two other specific forms for a “shadow of violence” channel—namely, raised tensions over open-grazing bans enacted in 2016 and 2017 within three states and a drastic peak in violence in the first half of 2018— and find similar results. Lastly, findings show how household exposure to violence can have so-called knock-on effects. Households exposed to herder-related violence in the previous post-planting season shift consumption and crop selling patterns in the post-harvest season. These findings highlight the gender-specific labor response to violence and document the role of the informal sector as a partial safety net for individuals in the presence of adverse shocks. |
| Date: | 2023–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10607 |
| By: | AlAzzawi, Shireen; Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Hlasny, Vladimir; Abanokova, Ksenia; Behrman, Jere R. |
| Abstract: | Various challenges are thought to render female-headed households (FHHs) vulnerable to poverty in the Arab region. Yet, previous studies have had mixed results and the absence of household panel survey data hinders analysis of poverty dynamics. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing a novel typology of FHHs and analyzes synthetic panels constructed from 20 rounds of repeated cross-sectional surveys spanning the past two decades from the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Mauritania, the West Bank and Gaza, and Tunisia. The paper finds that the definition of FHHs matters for measuring poverty levels and dynamics. Most types of FHHs are less poor than non–FHHs on average, but FHHs with a major share of female adults are generally poorer. FHHs are more likely to escape poverty than households on average, but FHHs without children are the most likely to do so. While more children are generally associated with more poverty for FHHs, there is heterogeneity across countries in addition to heterogeneity across measures of FHHs. The findings provide useful inputs for social protection and employment programs aiming at reducing gender inequalities and poverty in the Arab region. |
| Date: | 2024–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10672 |
| By: | Baxi, Paripoorna; Naidoo, Darian; Tandon, Sharad Alan |
| Abstract: | There was substantial growth in the resource sector in Papua New Guinea during the last resource boom, increased revenue collection by the government associated with that growth, and significant increases in international assistance, all which might have translated into improved well-being outcomes across the country. For a better understanding of whether these changes improved household-level outcomes, this paper updates estimates of key well-being outcomes in the country. The analysis imputes monetary poverty status using nonmonetary indicators in the 2016 –18 Demographic and Health Survey and estimates the World Bank’s Multidimensional Poverty Measure. Despite the country’s significant growth since 2009, monetary poverty and access to several essential services hardly changed, which stands in stark contrast to the substantial improvement across the rest of the world and other comparison regions over the same period. Combined, the results illustrate that it is possible that very little of resource-led growth trickles down to the population and that the link between macroeconomic and microeconomic outcomes is more tenuous in Papua New Guinea than found in other resource-intensive settings. |
| Date: | 2024–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10798 |
| By: | Atamanov, Aziz; Cuevas, Pablo Facundo; Lebow, Jeremy Aaron; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon |
| Abstract: | Unequal access to economic opportunity for individuals with different innate characteristics, such as ethnicity or parents’ socioeconomic status, is often seen as both morally undesirable and bad for economic growth. This paper estimates inequality of opportunity, or the share of inequality explained by birth characteristics, across 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. For many countries, this is the first time inequality of opportunity is measured. The paper uses nationally representative household survey data harmonized to allow for cross-country comparisons. Using consumption per capita as the outcome, the findings show that inequality of opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa is stark and more pronounced than previously estimated. On average, inherited circumstances explain more than half of inequality in the region. Estimates range from 40 to 60 percent in most countries and reach 74 percent in South Africa. The findings show that birthplace, parents’ education, and ethnicity tend to be the most significant contributors, but there is large variation in the importance of circumstances across countries. This represents the most comprehensive estimate of inequality of opportunity to date in the poorest and one of the most unequal regions in the world, and it underscores the pressing need for policy makers to intensify their efforts to address inequality of opportunity to foster societies that are more equitable and unlock the full potential for growth in the region. |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10723 |
| By: | Hai-Anh H. Dang (World Bank, GLO, IZA, Indiana University, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City); Stephane Hallegatte (World Bank); Minh Cong Nguyen (World Bank); Trong-Anh Trinh (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Despite a vast body of literature documenting the harmful effects of climate change on various socio-economic outcomes, little cross-country analysis exists on the global impacts of higher temperatures on poverty and inequality. Analyzing a new global panel dataset of subnational poverty in 137 countries covering the past decade, we find that a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature leads to a 17.1% increase in poverty, employing the US$2.15 daily poverty threshold, and a 1.1% increase in the Gini inequality index. We also find negative effects of colder temperature on poverty and inequality. Yet, while poorer countries—particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa—are more affected by climate change, household adaptation could have mitigated some adverse effects in the long run. The findings provide relevant and timely inputs for the global fight against climate change as well as the current policy debate on cost-sharing between richer and poorer countries. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, temperature, poverty, inequality, subnational data |
| JEL: | Q54 I32 O1 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-08 |
| By: | Singh, Tejendra Pratap; Yusuff, Olanrewaju |
| Abstract: | We investigate the health impacts of Nigeria’s free maternal and child health program (FMCHP), leveraging variation in exposure to the program across births to the same mother. Results show reduced under-five mortality, with effects more pronounced in disadvantaged populations. The decline in under-five mortality is higher in areas with more healthcare services. Increased demand for preventive care likely drives improvements in under-five mortality. The FMCHP prevents a child’s death at approximately 54% of annual household expenditure. Our findings suggest that improving access to institutional healthcare during pregnancy improves maternal and child health outcomes in areas with low healthcare utilization. These conclusions are robust to various empirical checks. |
| Date: | 2025–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:y6wzt_v2 |
| By: | Jolevski, Filip; Nayyar, Gaurav; Pleninger, Regina; Shu Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines spillovers in the use of digital technologies from formal to informal businesses by exploring differences in geographic proximity. Using a unique set of geocoded data from the 2019 World Bank Enterprise Surveys in Zambia, the findings indicate that closer geographic proximity to formal firms is associated with a significantly higher likelihood of digital adoption by informal businesses. The finding holds for various types of digital technologies, ranging from computers, tablets, and cell phones to mobile money transactions, and is robust to various measures of geographic proximity and model modifications. The results vary by the owner’s level of education and business age. The results also suggest that the spillovers in information and communications technology use can be explained by competition in the local market and learning through enhanced interactions. |
| Date: | 2024–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10757 |
| By: | Tchuisseu Seuyong, Feraud; Edochie, Ifeanyi Nzegwu; Newhouse, David Locke; Silwal, Ani Rudra |
| Abstract: | How did the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic impact poor households in Sub-Saharan Africa This paper tackles this question by combining 73 High-Frequency Phone Surveys collected by national governments in 14 countries with older nationally representative surveys containing information on household consumption. In particular, it examines how outcomes differed according to predicted per capita consumption quintiles in the first wave of the survey, and in subsequent waves by households’ predicted per capita consumption. The initial shock affected households throughout the predicted welfare distribution. Households in the bottom 40 percent responded by sharply increasing farming activities between May and July of 2020 and gradually increasing ownership of non-farm enterprises starting in August. This coincided with an improvement in welfare, as measured by a decline in food insecurity and distressed asset sales among these households during the second half of 2020. With respect to education, children in the bottom quintile were 15 percentage points less likely to engage in learning activities than those in the top quintile in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, and the engagement gap between the bottom 40 and top 60 widened in the summer before narrowing in the fall due to large declines in engagement among the top 60. Poorer households were slightly more likely to report receiving public assistance immediately following the shock, and this difference changed little over the course of 2020. The results highlight the widespread impacts of the crisis both on welfare and children’s educational engagement, the importance of agriculture and household non-farm enterprises as safety nets for the poor, and the substantial recovery made by the poorest households in the year following the crisis. |
| Date: | 2024–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10726 |
| By: | Wendy Cunningham; David Newhouse; Federica Ricaldi; Seuyong, Feraud Tchuisseu; Viollaz, Mariana; Ifeanyi Nzegwu Edochie |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the state of informal sector work in urban Sub-Saharan Africa, using household surveys from 26 countries representing 61 percent of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa and firm surveys from three countries. Five main conclusions emerge. First, the urban informal sector is large and persistent in Sub-Saharan Africa. Approximately 56 to 65 percent of urban workers are informal, half of whom are self-employed. Data from five countries suggest little systematic reduction in the prevalence of informality during the 2010s. Second, heterogeneity in the African informal sector cuts along demographic lines. Women are overrepresented in informal self-employment, men in informal wage work, and youth in unpaid employment. Third, while the urban informal workers are, on average, poorer and in less-skilled occupations than formal sector workers, the majority are not extremely poor and are in mid-skilled occupations. Fourth, informal enterprises are small and are challenged to survive and grow into job-creating firms. Few find much benefit from registration given the costs, both monetary (taxes) and transactional (information about the registration process). Fifth, access to urban public services (utilities) is weakly associated with the probability of working in an informal job, although access to mobile phones is high across all job types. If thriving urban jobs are to contribute to economic and social development in Africa, it will be crucial for policies and programs to take into consideration the heterogeneity in jobs, the profile of workers, and the urban context. |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10703 |
| By: | Tommaso Sonno; Davide Zufacchi |
| Abstract: | Large-scale land acquisitions are a key component of agricultural foreign direct investment. In 2023 alone, nearly 6% of the world's arable land was acquired globally. This paper examines their impact on agricultural production, environmental outcomes, and local communities. To identify these effects, we exploit an exogenous increase in palm oil land acquisitions driven by the Ebola epidemic in Liberia. We find a 54% growth in production, primarily due to an expansion in cultivated hectares rather than large improvements in land productivity, accompanied by a significant rise in palm oil exports. Our results indicate that LSLAs have altered the equilibrium of palm oil production, fuelling the adoption of an extensive monoculture system oriented toward international markets. The expansion of this tradable industry generated modest positive effects on the local economy and spurred a process of structural transformation. Women transitioned from agriculture to service and sales jobs, while men shifted into manual labour positions. However, all of this came at a cost: increased deforestation, air pollution, and a decline in local land ownership. |
| Keywords: | large-scale land acquisitions, agricultural production, structural transformation |
| Date: | 2025–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2075 |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Timothy Köhler (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the labour market effects of an unconditional cash transfer targeted at the unemployed in a context of extreme unemployment. Using a staggered, heterogeneity robust difference-in-differences design applied to panel labour force survey data, we estimate the contemporaneous and dynamic effects of a new transfer introduced in South Africa, the Social Relief of Distress grant, the first labour market-linked transfer in the country’s history. We find that, on aggregate, receipt has positive effects on the probabilities of job search, trying to start a business, and employment. The latter effects are driven by effects on wage and informal sector employment. We show that employment effects are positive for the unemployed who are either actively searching for work or trying to start a business, as well as for those who are not, but they are substantially larger for the former. This indicates that the transfer both encourages and improves the efficiency of labour market activity by addressing labour market constraints but highlights the importance of active labour market engagement for improving employment prospects through the transfer. However, these employment effects are only evident in the short-term and quickly become and remain null in the longer-term. These results suggest that cash transfers can help reduce labour market constraints but such gains need not translate into better longer-term employment prospects in high-unemployment contexts. |
| Keywords: | Cash transfers; Labour market; Unemployment; South Africa; COVID-19; Social Relief of Distress grant |
| JEL: | D04 D31 C54 H53 J48 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202405 |
| By: | Laszlo Tetenyi; Karol Mazur |
| Abstract: | Governments operate agricultural input subsidy programs worldwide. Using a general equilibrium heterogeneous agent model featuring transaction costs, we quantitatively evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of such policies. Focusing on Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program, we find that while this large program decreases undernutrition, it reduces welfare by exacerbating misallocation and benefiting the wealthier urban population.We show that partial equilibrium analysis leads to contrary conclusions and that halving the subsidy rate or investingin infrastructure improves outcomes. Finally, we demonstrate that the microdata from Malawi and cross-country data from Sub-Saharan Africa are consistent with the predictions of our model. |
| JEL: | O11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202422 |
| By: | Zaakhir Asmal; Haroon Bhorat; Alexia Lochmann; Lisa Martin; Kishan Shah (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | This report presents an empirical profile of South Africa’s informal sector, with an aim of understanding in empirical detail, why South Africa’s informal sector employment remains relatively low in comparison to other developing countries. We present an overview of exogenous constraints to informal activity in South Africa, accompanied by feedback from relevant national and local policy officials where appropriate. We received limited feedback from city officials – itself an indicator of how the informal sector is currently viewed within the country. We consider the limited feedback received within the context of existing data and findings in the literature concerning the informal sector of South Africa. We then provide a preliminary discussion on possible supply-side policy options for expanding the informal sector in South Africa and challenges that may be faced in this regard. |
| Keywords: | informal sector, developing country, South Africa, employment |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202403 |
| By: | Fernandez Romero, Jaime Estuardo; Olivieri, Sergio Daniel; Wambile, Ayago Esmubancha |
| Abstract: | The 2022 Household Income and Expenditure Survey enhances fieldwork, data management, and information quality but poses comparability challenges with previous rounds. This study proposes a two-step process based on statistical matching to fill the information gap in previous survey rounds. This methodology uses the more comprehensive 2022 information to reconstruct comparable consumption measures over time. This allows for a consistent assessment of poverty and inequality measures, providing insights into the changes for policy makers, researchers, and stakeholders over the years. The results reveal that integrating this correction into previous survey rounds would have reduced poverty rates by around 10.6 percentage points between 2010 and 2016 and a further decrease of 7.8 percentage points between 2016 and 2022. Likewise, extreme poverty rates would have witnessed a decline of approximately 3 percentage points in the earlier period and a more substantial drop of 3.6 percentage points in the more recent one. These poverty reduction trends mirror improvements in other dimensions of well-being, like reductions in infant mortality and stunting and increases in access to electricity, sanitary toilets, and literacy rates. |
| Date: | 2024–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10749 |
| By: | Davalos, Maria Eugenia; Londono Aguirre, Diana Isabel; Medina Gaspar, Daniel Santiago |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes gender gaps in the Colombian labor market, with a particular focus on the impact of the COVID-19 shock and the economic recovery. Using household survey and administrative data, the analysis finds significant and persistent gender gaps in favor of men in terms of participation, unemployment, and income. These gaps are heterogeneous at the regional level in Colombia, and are exacerbated among women with children, particularly young children, and those with low levels of education. The COVID-19 pandemic widened these gaps, including from higher female concentration in the most affected sectors and potentially associated with the disproportionate burden of care on women. Moreover, using decomposition techniques, the paper finds that the decline observed in the hourly gender wage gap results from two offsetting effects: the explained gap, which favors women due to their endowments, primarily education level, and the unexplained gap, which favors men and may be associated with discriminatory biases. Moreover, the gender wage gap widens significantly when considering monthly income, showing variations in hours worked between men and women. Given the poorer labor market outcomes among women with children, policies toward the reduction and redistribution of care work within households could contribute to increase women’s opportunities in the labor market. |
| Date: | 2023–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10605 |
| By: | Wollburg, Philip Randolph; Markhof, Yannick Valentin; Bentze, Thomas Patrick; Ponzini, Giulia |
| Abstract: | Disasters affect millions of people each year and cause economic losses worth many billions of dollars globally. Reporting on disaster impacts in research, policy, and news primarily relies on macro statistics based on disaster inventories. The macro statistics suggest that a relatively small share of disaster damages accrues in Africa. This paper, instead, uses detailed survey micro-data from six African countries to quantify disaster damages in one key sector: crop agriculture. The micro-data reveals much higher damages and more people affected than the macro statistics would indicate. On average, 36 percent of the agricultural plots in the sample suffer crop losses due to adverse climatic events. In the countries and time period analyzed, these losses reduced total crop production by an average of 29 percent. Importantly, many of these losses are underreported or undetected in key disaster inventories and therefore elude macro statistics. In the case of droughts and floods, the economic losses recorded in the micro-data are $5.1 billion higher than in the macro statistics, affecting 145 million to 170 million people, more than four times as many as the macro statistics suggest. The difference stems mostly from smaller and less severe but frequent adverse events that are not recorded in disaster inventories. |
| Date: | 2024–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10660 |
| By: | Rama, Martin G.; Singh, Rucheta; Aslam, Aiza |
| Abstract: | The World Bank’s analytical work has a strong reputation, but its knowledge products are also perceived to be of varying quality and relevance, and the drivers of this heterogeneity are only partially understood. Building on previous evaluations, this paper adopts a production function approach to assess how budget resources, time to completion, technical skills, and institutional responsibilities affect the internal ratings and external visibility of different types of analytical tasks at the World Bank. To this effect, the paper first matches records from three unconnected electronic platforms — for internal documents, budget codes, and external publications — to assemble a comprehensive database of knowledge products and their key characteristics. With analytical documents as its unit of observation, the exercise shows that: (1) devoting more resources to analytical tasks leads to both better ratings and greater visibility; (2) both outcomes are systematically worse when a greater share of resources comes from trust funds; (3) they are also consistently worse for tasks that take longer to complete; (4) more academically oriented team leaders underperform on ratings and overperform on visibility, whereas technically solid but less stellar team leaders overperform on ratings; and (5) everything else equal, performance varies systematically with the nature of the unit in charge. The findings of the paper can be read as a cautionary note against knowledge management that is based on the counting of analytical tasks. Instead, the findings call for much stronger information systems on knowledge products, a better alignment of incentives for the units in charge, and regular evaluations in the spirit of this paper. |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10704 |
| By: | Winkler, Deborah Elisabeth; Kruse, Hagen; Aguilar Luna, Luis Alejandro; Maliszewska, Maryla |
| Abstract: | Trade expansion can create more and better jobs. This paper revisits the linkages between trade and jobs, focusing on employment, labor incomes, and job activities across a large sample of countries and sectors over 1995 to 2018. Instrumental variables regressions and new input-output measures of jobs and activities in exports highlight several patterns: Exports and especially imports of intermediate inputs are associated with more jobs and higher incomes, while final imports show weaker correlations. Manufacturing has the biggest potential for job and income creation both directly and indirectly in supplying sectors. As countries move from specialization in commodities to limited manufacturing to advanced manufacturing and services global value chains, export-employment and export-income elasticities increase. Global value chain–intensive developing countries tend to have larger shares of production activities in exports compared to resource-intensive countries. As countries get richer, nonproduction activities in exports, such as support, engineering, and managerial services, become increasingly important. Finally, the paper explores the role of policy for the export job share across countries. |
| Date: | 2023–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10635 |