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on Development |
| By: | Thomas Patrick Bentze; Philip Randolph Wollburg |
| Abstract: | Since 2008, the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study–Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) program has supported the collection of nationally representative, longitudinal, multi-topic household survey data to inform researchers and policy makers of living standards in Sub-Saharan Africa. The surveys maintain a distinct focus on the agricultural sector, collecting detailed plot-level data and information about agricultural activities, while measuring socioeconomic conditions of thousands of smallholder farmers and households across multiple countries. This paper presents a harmonized panel dataset (HP) from LSMS-ISA surveys from 2008 to 2021 in seven Sub-Saharan African countries: Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda, from 2008 to 2021. It includes more than 200, 000 agricultural plot observations, more than 400, 000 individuals, and about 59, 000 households. The HP allows for in-depth analysis of farm, household, and individual dynamics over time and across countries. It is ideal for researchers interested in studying the dynamics between agriculture, economic development, and welfare outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Date: | 2024–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10976 |
| By: | Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier; Conconi, Adriana; Olivieri, Sergio Daniel; Serio, Monserrat |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first measures of vulnerability to poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean at the household level looking at natural hazards such as floods, landslides, cyclones, earthquakes, and droughts. It considers seven countries in the region: Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru. The paper constructs a unique data base that links household surveys from the Socio-Economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean database to data on natural hazards from the ThinkHazard database and Emergency Events Database, which permits the first estimates of how household exposure to natural events raises the probability of being poor. The results suggest that vulnerability to poverty is related to households' coping and adaptation strategies, and there is great heterogeneity depending on the natural hazard assumed. The evidence generated by this approach helps in understanding the lack of coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies among vulnerable households. This understanding can be used to mitigate the effects of natural disasters. The evidence-based approach is useful for identifying specific vulnerable communities in disaster-prone areas. Furthermore, the information can be presented in the most disaggregated representative unit that the data allow so that policy makers can build more efficient management policies in their location. |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10825 |
| By: | Khan, Amjad Muhammad; Kuate, Landry; Pongou, Roland; Zhang, Fan |
| Abstract: | Vulnerability to climate change and water scarcity is increasing globally. How this affects individual employment outcomes is still not well understood. Using survey data collected from approximately half a million individuals across Sub-Saharan Africa over from 2005 to 2018, this paper examines the causal relationship between water availability and labor market outcomes. It combines georeferenced household survey data with a drought index that captures the exogenous effects of both rainfall and temperature on water availability. The findings suggest that extremely dry periods decrease employment by 2.5 percentage points on average, and wet periods with an abundance of soil moisture (not flooding) increase employment by 4 percentage points. The negative effects of dry shocks are larger in rural, poorer, and agriculture-dependent areas and for individuals who hold low-skilled jobs or work as farmers. Moreover, the paper finds that the burden of dry shocks disproportionately falls on women, while the benefits of wet shocks accrue more to men. The presence of irrigation infrastructure and the historical evolution of local livelihood strategies—historical mode of subsistence—partly mediate the impacts of water shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10823 |
| By: | Teresa Janz; Gassmann, Franziska; de Ervin, Lyliana Gayoso |
| Abstract: | In Paraguay, poverty reduction has stalled since 2014 due to a deceleration in economic growth, which has been argued to be partly due to a series of climate-related events. Nevertheless, little is known about the impacts of climate-related shocks on the poor. This study analyzes the extent to which short-term weather shocks have affected incomes and poverty in Paraguay. It combines data from the yearly household survey series, the Permanent Continuous Household Survey; the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate temperature data; and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data from 2004 to 2019. The research design exploits variation in weather shocks across districts and time, using ordinary least squares pooled regression analysis. The results show that heat shocks led to significant household income reductions: 5 percent in urban areas and up to 8.8 percent in rural areas, on average. Heat shocks also increased poverty by 1.7 and 4.2 percentage points in urban and rural areas, respectively. Floods primarily affected urban areas, increasing poverty by 1.9 percentage points. The impacts vary substantially across regions and household characteristics: female-headed households in rural areas are particularly vulnerable to heat shocks, while households that are active in the primary sector suffer most from both heat and drought shocks. These findings evidence the disproportional impacts of short-term weather shocks on income and poverty across regions and household characteristics. The results highlight the need to consider actions to promote adaptation and climate risk strategies tailored to subpopulations that are vulnerable to climate, to enhance overall resilience in the country. |
| Date: | 2024–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10970 |
| By: | Darko, Francis Addeah; Purnamasari, Ririn Salwa |
| Abstract: | With about 80 percent of poor households in Timor-Leste dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, it is widely acknowledged that growth in the agriculture sector is an important channel for poverty reduction in the country. That notwithstanding, the country’s agricultural production system is one of the least developed in the world, with the sector’s productivity being well below that of other small island developing states and below the average for other low-income states. Using data from the 2007 and 2014 waves of the Timor-Leste Surveys of Living Standards, this paper provides insight into the extent to which increases in agricultural productivity can contribute to poverty reduction, and assesses the drivers of and constraints to increasing agricultural productivity in the country. The findings show that improvements in agricultural productivity reduce the probability of being poor among agricultural households. The paper also finds that for agricultural produ ctivity to increase, the following factors should be considered: facilitation of farm mechanization, improvement in the use of chemical (fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides) inputs, enhancement of access to credit and extension, encouragement to farmers to join farmer groups, expansion of the commercialization of farm produce, and reduction in the gender gap in agricultural productivity. |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10862 |
| By: | A. Patrick Behrer; Jonah Matthew Rexer; Siddharth Sharma; Margaret Triyana |
| Abstract: | Climate change is increasing household exposure to extreme heat, floods and other natural disasters. This paper examines the differential exposure of poorer households to heat and floods in South Asia. The use of spatially detailed data on climate shocks and relative wealth allows the analysis in this paper to capture highly localized variation in wealth, heat and floods. It finds that poorer South Asian households experience more heat than better-off ones. In urban areas, poorer households also experience more recurrent flooding. Using spatially detailed data on the universe of firms in India, this paper also finds that smaller firms are more exposed to heat and flooding. The paper concludes by discussing potential mechanisms that could explain these disparities in exposure to climate shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10947 |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha; Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso; Gladys Lopez-Acevedo; Robertson, Raymond; Wendy Karamba |
| Abstract: | Cambodia’s rapid economic growth in the past few decades has coincided with trade liberalization and structural transformation. This growth has been extensively associated with more employment, higher wages, shared prosperity, and poverty reduction. By combining two complementary approaches, the gravity model and the Bartik model, this paper estimates: (i) the relationship between trade agreements and trade flows, and (ii) the relationship between trade exposure and various local labor market outcomes. The gravity estimates show that trade agreements between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are positively related with trade flows, and that Cambodia’s specific gains from these increases in trade have been larger than for the average trade agreement. This has led to better results for workers in Cambodia’s local labor markets. The shift-share Bartik results suggest that increases in trade exposure in Cambodian districts between 2009 and 2019 correlate with reduced informality and an increase in hours worked, with more positive effects for female workers. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10895 |
| By: | Ural Marchand, Beyza (University of Alberta, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of imports from developed countries on industry-specific employment in India between 1983 and 2010. The identification strategy relies on comparing differential changes in import exposure across regions to the differential changes in employment within industries. The variation in the changes in imports to other developing countries is used to identify the component of the changes in imports driven by world demand. The results suggest that the increase in import exposure during the post-liberalization period reduced agricultural employment but increased employment in manufacturing, business, and social services. No significant impacts were found in the pre-liberalization period. |
| Keywords: | Import Competition; Trade; Employment |
| JEL: | F16 J21 J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2025_002 |
| By: | Amankwah, Akuffo; Ambel, Alemayehu A.; Gourlay, Sydney; Kilic, Talip; Markhof, Yannick Valentin; Wollburg, Philip Randolph |
| Abstract: | Since 2020, many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced disruptions to agricultural activities due to the adverse effects of multiple global crises. Notably, the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in inorganic fertilizer prices, which had potentially significant impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture sector given that most countries in the region are net importers of inorganic fertilizers and the Russian Federation is the world’s largest exporter. Using high-frequency longitudinal phone survey data spanning four years from six Sub-Saharan African countries, this paper examines the dynamics of smallholder agriculture against the backdrop of these crises, with particular focus on prices, availability, and use of inorganic fertilizer, as well as the strategies employed by farmers to cope with high fertilizer prices and other accessibility constraints. The results show that inorganic fertilizer prices have increased in the region since 2020, forcing smallholder farmers to adopt coping mechanisms that are less productivity-enhancing, making them even more susceptible to future crises. Specifically, farming households reduced the quantity of inorganic fertilizer applied, by applying it at lower rates or to a smaller area. In some cases, households sold assets or borrowed money to cope with the high prices of inorganic fertilizers. This calls for policies to help smallholder farmers in the region to build strong support systems to be more resilient and better able to cope with the adverse effects of rising inorganic fertilizer prices during polycrises and related shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10842 |
| By: | Srivastava, Bhavya; Ifeanyi Nzegwu Edochie; Aparajita Goyal; Andrew L. Dabalen |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan Africa’s low agricultural productivity exacerbates rural poverty. An important investment, the sustainable use of groundwater for irrigation, has the potential to increase agricultural productivity, but the region has been much slower to adopt this irrigation method compared to other regions, despite abundant reserves. This study uses a simulation-driven approach to examine the benefits of sustainably utilizing groundwater for irrigation. By mapping data from 291, 798 global agro-ecological zones to 8, 099 groundwater grids, the study models the production gains from groundwater irrigation for rain-fed croplands. Simulation results indicate that groundwater access could increase output by 27.97 to 129.42 percent, contingent on crop and model conditions. This research facilitates the assessment of the transformative potential of groundwater irrigation and identifies areas in Sub-Saharan Africa where investments can yield significant returns without depleting the groundwater table. |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10885 |
| By: | Darcey Jeanne Genou Johnson; Josephine Ofori Adofo; Maryam Gul; Amparo Palacios-Lopez; Akuffo Amankwah |
| Abstract: | Consumption data from household surveys continue to be the main source for poverty and inequality statistics in low- and middle-income countries. Although recent research has demonstrated that the choice of diary- versus recall-based methods for consumption data collection can directly impact poverty measurement, the available evidence stems from small-scale, subnational survey experiments. This study uses data from a nationally representative randomized survey experiment in Tanzania to provide a comparative assessment of how household consumption and poverty measures may be impacted by relying on a 14-day food consumption diary versus two different variants of 7-day-recall-based food consumption data collection. The analysis reveals significant differences in food consumption expenditures across the diary and recall arms, and these differences result in differences in total consumption expenditures as well. The results further show that the diary method captures more diverse food consumption items, but the overall consumption expenditure appears significantly lower than in the recall arms, even at different percentiles. Despite these disparities, the paper finds little statistically significant difference in poverty rates between the diary and recall arms, even at different thresholds. |
| Date: | 2024–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10871 |
| By: | Karima Ben Bih; Chloe Genevieve Helene Desjonqueres; Bramka Arga Jafino; Blanc, Elodie; Masson, Solene |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the differentiated economic impact of natural hazard-related disasters (the specific disasters and climate shocks studied here being floods) when they occur in conflict versus non-conflict affected areas. Existing literature shows that disasters and climate shocks can cause significant distress to countries and people on an institutional and household level. However, assumptions are made that their impact tends to be larger in conflict-affected areas, with little evidence available on the differentiated extent of these damages. This paper investigates whether, and to what extent, the presence of conflicts has amplified the impacts of floods on economic activity and people, and hampered recovery. The paper applies a “top-down” approach to estimating the differential impacts of disasters and climate shocks between conflict and non-conflict affected areas using satellite-derived imagery of nightlight radiance as a proxy for economic activity, along with geospatial footprints of floods. The analysis considers two case studies: the 2019 tropical cyclones Idai and Kenneth and subsequent floods in Mozambique, and the July 2022 floods in Nigeria. Using difference-in-difference estimations, the analysis finds that there are significant differences in disaster and climate shock impacts and recovery between conflict and non-conflict affected areas. Particularly, there is a greater decline in economic activity and a longer recovery time in conflict affected areas, as proxied by the greater change in the intensity of nightlight radiance. |
| Date: | 2024–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10995 |
| By: | Hai-Anh H. Dang; Talip Kilic; Ksenia Abanokova; Gero Carletto |
| Abstract: | Accurate poverty measurement relies on household consumption data, but such data are often inadequate, outdated, or display inconsistencies over time in poorer countries. To address these data challenges, this paper employs survey-to-survey imputation to produce estimates for several poverty indicators, including headcount poverty, extreme poverty, poverty gap, near-poverty rates, as well as mean consumption levels and the entire consumption distribution. Analysis of 22 multi-topic household surveys conducted over the past decade in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Viet Nam yields encouraging results. Adding household utility expenditures or food expenditures to basic imputation models with household-level demographic, employment, and asset variables could improve the probability of imputation accuracy by 0.1 to 0.4. Adding predictors from geospatial data could further increase imputation accuracy. The analysis also shows that a larger time interval between surveys is associated with a lower probability of predicting some poverty indicators, and that a better imputation model goodness-of-fit (R2) does not necessarily help. The results offer cost-saving inputs for future survey design. |
| Date: | 2024–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10867 |
| By: | Nabil Daher |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the nonlinear impact of natural disasters on economic growth. Using the Quantile Local Projections (QLP) method on a panel of 68 developing countries over the period 1970-2021, we find that natural disasters have an overall nonlinear effect across economic states. In particular, while some disasters exacerbate economic downturns in low-income countries, high-income developing ones tend to exhibit more resilience to adverse impacts. We argue that the state-dependent effects of natural disasters may be influenced by business cycle phases and structural economic weaknesses, such as sectoral interdependencies and limited economic diversification, especially in low-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters, Quantile Local Projections, Developing Economics |
| JEL: | C23 E32 O11 O57 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-9 |
| By: | Francis Muamba Mulangu; Jean-Pascal Nguessa Nganou; Benlamine, Mokhtar; Keller, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper presents comprehensive findings on the relationship between economic growth and poverty. Using a first-difference model applied to data from more than 80 countries spanning over 20 years, the paper investigates how changes in gross domestic product affect the Multidimensional Poverty Index and its subcomponents, considering variations in income level, region, and resource dependency. The analysis confirms that economic growth generally reduces the Multidimensional Poverty Index, although the magnitude of the effect varies significantly. It is less pronounced in low-income countries, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and resource-dependent countries. The paper disaggregates gross domestic product growth by its dimensions, revealing that growth driven by total factor productivity, consumption, and sustainable growth significantly decreases the Multidimensional Poverty Index. In contrast, factors such as human capital development, capital deepening, investment, government spending, exports, and imports show ambiguous effects on the Multidimensional Poverty Index. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of these factors depends on country-level conditions. Given the clearer positive impact of total factor productivity, consumption, and sustainable growth on reducing multidimensional poverty, policy makers should prioritize strategies that promote these types of growth to fight poverty, especially in contexts where the effects of other growth contributors are uncertain or not well understood. |
| Date: | 2024–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10930 |
| By: | Iqbal, Razi |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the importance of adaptation in dealing with an increase in climate risk. The paper studies adaptation along two margins: changes in crop choices, and reallocation of workers across sectors. Using long-term data on cyclones and flooding in Bangladesh, I find that the increase in propensity of both cyclones and floods affect crop choice, but only cyclones affect sectoral employment, shifting employment out of agriculture. The paper develops a structural model to study the welfare implications of adaptation and calculate the Value of adaptation i.e. how much worse welfare would be if both adaptation channels were shut off. I find that the Value of adaptation is informed by the nature of the shocks: both the intensity of future shocks and their correlatedness across crops and regions influence the Value of adaptation. The Value of adaptation is 20% in the case in which intensity of both flooding and cyclones doubles relative to the 2000s average, and such increases are correlated within regions. |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j43sk_v1 |
| By: | Maria Celeste Gomez; Giovanni Dosi; Federico Riccio; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | Over the last forty years, Latin American countries (LACs) have experienced a variety of specialization trajectories, while sharing a common pattern of weak and unstable growth. Given the accelerated premature deindustrialization path and the loss of productive capacity, manufacturing has represented a missed opportunity for development. The result has been a stable landing into a middle-income trap and economic stagnation. Accordingly, this paper addresses the relationship between sectoral productive composition, growth performance and its variability. Using the UN-COMTRADE and the Penn World Table 10.1 databases between 1962 and 2017, we account for the specialization strategies of LACs, linking aggregate output, export products, and sectoral composition. In a nutshell, we examine the extent to which revealed comparative advantages, at the country or the technological (Pavitt) class level, and the relative composition of the export baskets exert any significant role in explaining output growth and volatility. According to our findings, specializing in factor endowments and natural resources has brought LACs into a trap of halted catching up. |
| Keywords: | Structural Change, sectoral composition, Latin America |
| Date: | 2025–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2025/05 |
| By: | Ifeanyi Nzegwu Edochie; David Newhouse; Tzavidis, Nikos; Schmid, Timo; Elizabeth Mary Foster; Hernandez, Angela Luna; Aissatou Ouedraogo; Aly Sanoh; Aboudrahyme Savadogo |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a methodology to generate experimental small area estimates of poverty in four West African countries: Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Niger. Due to the absence of recent census data in these countries, household-level survey data are integrated with grid-level geospatial data, which are used as covariates in model-based estimation. Leveraging geospatial data enables reporting of poverty estimates more frequently at disaggregated administrative levels and makes estimation feasible in areas for which survey data are not available. The paper leverages the availability of a recent census in Burkina Faso for evaluation purposes. Estimates obtained with the same survey instruments and candidate geospatial covariates as the other four countries are compared against estimates obtained using recent census data and an empirical best predictor under a unit-level model. For Burkina Faso, the estimates obtained using geospatial data are highly correlated with the census-based ones in sampled areas but moderately correlated in non-sampled areas. The results demonstrate that in the absence of recent census data, small area estimation with publicly available geospatial covariates is |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10892 |