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on Development |
| By: | Arteaga, Julián (World Bank); de Roux, Nicolás (Universidad de los Andes); Gáfaro, Margarita (Banco de la República); Ibáñez, Ana María (Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo - IADB); Pellegrina, Heitor (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the dynamics of farm size distribution, how they are influenced by weather shocks, and the implications for aggregate productivity. Using data from several developing countries, we first document new empirical facts about households’ landholding choices and how weather shocks influence these decisions. Building on a rich longitudinal dataset for Colombia on farm sizes, land transactions, and households’ consumption and investment decisions, we then show that weather shocks increase the frequency of land sales and reduce farm sizes within municipalities, especially among smaller farms. To rationalize these facts, we develop a dynamic, heterogeneous household model in which uninsured farmers make landholding and occupational choices. Our calibrated model shows that uninsured risk substantially curbs aggregate agricultural productivity, and that the effects of temporary weather shocks on farm size and agricultural output are highly persistent, taking more than a decade to fade out. |
| Keywords: | Farm Size; Weather Shocks; Aggregate Shocks; Heterogeneous Agent Model |
| JEL: | D52 O13 Q12 Q15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021308 |
| By: | Aguilar-Gómez, Sandra; Salazar-Díaz, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Every year, 245 million women are victims of intimate partner violence (IPV). Climate change is hypothesized to exacerbate this figure through its disruptive impact on household livelihoods, among other channels. However, little causal evidence exists on this aspect of the climate-gender nexus, partly due to measurement challenges that have contributed to gaps in the literature. In this paper, we use three different IPV data sources to examine the effect of drought in Mexico and the role of agricultural vulnerability in intensifying these effects. We find robust evidence of increases in all measures of IPV in response to local precipitation deficits: as unanticipated exposure to days without rain in the previous month rises, more injuries linked to IPV are recorded in the public health system, police reports increase, and more 911 calls related to IPV are made. The effects are stronger in regions highly dependent on agriculture, particularly when the shock occurs during the growing season. In a country where most agricultural income and land are controlled by men, our results align with theoretical predictions from male-backlash IPV models and extractive violence models. We also find that the impact of drought on IPV is more pronounced in municipalities with low state capacity, though potential differences in reporting behavior between IPV measures complicate comparisons. Our findings underscore the need to design gender-sensitive disaster relief policies, strengthen trust in reporting mechanisms and helplines, and reduce the social acceptability of IPV. |
| Keywords: | drought;domestic violence;intimate partner violence;Agriculture |
| JEL: | I15 J16 D13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13943 |
| By: | Beber, Bernd; Ebert, Cara; Kyle, Jordan; Riaz, Zara |
| Abstract: | Millions of poor households around the world rely on migration to improve their economic circumstances and, increasingly, for resilience in the face of a changing climate. In vulnerable contexts, slow-onset climate impacts like water scarcity, rising temperatures, and more variable weather conditions are diminishing local economic opportunities and increasing food insecurity. Such climate impacts are projected to accelerate migration patterns, particularly out-migration from rural areas (Rigaud et al., 2018; SVR, 2023). While news reports on climate migration often emphasize communities leaving an area en masse due to a natural disaster, climate migration due to slow-onset climate shifts, which gradually lower crop yields and hinder agricultural livelihoods, more commonly implies a male household member migrating within a country, often seasonally, in order to send remittances back to his family. |
| Keywords: | gender; migration; women's empowerment; surveys; rural communities; Western Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Senegal |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:168164 |
| By: | Deza, María Cecilia; Dondo, Mariana; Jara, H. Xavier; Rodríguez Guerrero, David Arturo; Torres, Javier |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the extent to which cash transfers, direct taxes, and social contributions help to reduce gender income inequalities in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. We apply microsimulation techniques to household survey data and allocate incomes within the household, assuming that each person retains the income they receive (e.g., earnings, benefits targeting mothers) and pays taxes and social insurance contributions on an individual basis according to each countrys rules. Then, we compare gender income ratios based on market (before taxes and benefits) and disposable (after taxes and benefits) income. Our results show that, at the bottom of the distribution, tax-benefit systems significantly reduce gender income disparities in most countries due to the effect of social assistance benefits received by mothers in poor households. Additionally, we find that women have substantially higher poverty rates than men based on individual disposable income. Gender differences in poverty fade away when income is pooled at the couple level and, even more so, at the household level. |
| Keywords: | taxes;benefits;microsimulation;gender gap |
| JEL: | D31 J16 H24 I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13941 |
| By: | Mina Baliamoune |
| Abstract: | Using panel data from a large group of developing economies and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, we examine the effects of trade and other factors on female labor-force participation and wage employment. We focus particularly on comparing the effects of trade openness in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The empirical results indicate that trade openness affects female labor-force participation and wage employment differently in these three regions. Moreover, the effects of other determinants of labor market outcomes, such as income, education, fertility, and electricity, also vary by region. We discuss the policy implications of the findings for the MENA region. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp_18-24 |
| By: | Mr. Rabah Arezki; Youssouf Camara; Patrick A. Imam; Mr. Kangni R Kpodar |
| Abstract: | We explore the changing relationship between armed conflicts and non-military foreign aid. We find that the sign of the relationship linking (bilateral) aid commitments to the onset of armed conflicts in aid recipient countries is statistically significant and goes from negative to positive after the year 2001. We also find that our results are driven by grants rather than loans and by aid for health and humanitarian purposes. The results are robust to a myriad of checks including substituting armed conflicts with terror attacks, accounting for debt relief initiatives and using different estimators. We interpret our results as stemming from a shift in donors’ preferences induced by 9/11 attacks toward supporting conflict affected countries, confirming the primacy of donors’ interests over recipient needs. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid; Conflicts; Terror Attacks; Absorptive Capacity |
| Date: | 2025–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/016 |
| By: | Clemente Pignatti; Alessandro Tondini |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of a reform in South Africa anticipating children’s entry into primary school on children’s school enrollment and mothers’ labour supply. We use Census data and exploit month-of-birth discontinuities and the before/after variation introduced by the reform. We report a net increase of 7pp. in school attendance at age 5. However, contrary to an established finding in the literature, we find no impact on mother’s employment and the type of jobs held. We reconcile our finding with those of previous studies by noting that South Africa is characterized by relatively high initial rates of school attendance and relatively low rates of maternal employment. In districts where these contextual factors are more similar to previous studies, we find that higher enrollment does lead to higher maternal employment. |
| Keywords: | Childcare, Maternal labor supply, South Africa |
| JEL: | I28 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbk:wpaper:2025-01 |
| By: | Ackah, Josephine Akua; Sear, Rebecca (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); McLean, Estelle; Awusabo-Asare, Kofi; Hassan, Anushé; Achana, Fabian Sebastian; Walters, Sarah |
| Abstract: | BACKGROUND: The nuclear convergence hypothesis proposes that development and urbanisation lead to increasing proportions of nuclear families. We explore this hypothesis in Ghana by charting household living arrangements as captured in censuses and surveys. OBJECTIVE: To classify household structure in Ghana and track trends to test whether households converge towards nucleation during processes of development and urbanisation. METHODS: We employ two methods of classification – manual and data driven (latent class analysis) – to create household structures using Ghana’s censuses (1984-2021) and Demographic and Health Surveys (1993-2022). We explore trends over time and compare urban and rural areas to track nuclear convergence while documenting the differences and similarities between data sources and methods of classification. RESULTS: We find that though the manual and data-driven approaches produce similar results, the latter is vulnerable to possible misclassification. From the manual approach, we identify seven different typologies of household structure in Ghana and find that on average, a substantial proportion are core nuclear (couple with children only), other extended (non-multigenerational) and single member households. Overall, our findings deviate from the nuclear convergence hypothesis. There has not been a significant shift in the distribution of household types and in urban areas, there is a growing proportion of multigenerational households. We also observe that the surveys provide more reliable evidence on trends than the censuses. CONTRIBUTION: There is no strong evidence to support nuclear convergence in Ghana. We make a methodological contribution, highlighting that the use of data-driven methods for household classification needs to be approached with caution. |
| Date: | 2025–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7dhqr |
| By: | John Sebastian Tobar-Cruz; Carlos Alberto Ruiz-Martínez |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo explora la relación entre el acceso al crédito y la formalización y el crecimiento de los micronegocios en Colombia. Se utilizan datos de la Encuesta a Micronegocios (EMICRON) del DANE para el periodo 2019-2022, junto con la metodología de Propensity Score Matching y modelos de elección binaria para examinar esta interacción. Los resultados destacan que el acceso al crédito se relaciona de manera positiva y significativa con el crecimiento y la formalización de los micronegocios en las cuatro dimensiones estudiadas: entrada, insumos, producción y tributaria. El análisis incluye una distinción entre créditos otorgados por entidades formales e informales, revelando que los micronegocios con acceso a crédito formal presentan una mayor propensión a la formalización y un crecimiento más pronunciado en comparación con aquellos que acceden a crédito a través de entidades informales. Además, al examinar según el sexo del propietario/a, los micronegocios liderados por mujeres con acceso a crédito formal logran mejores resultados en formalización y crecimiento que los liderados por hombres. Por último, el análisis a nivel departamental revela notables variaciones en los resultados, destacando las disparidades económicas y sociales entre las diversas áreas del país. **** ABSTRACT: This paper explores the relationship between access to finance and the formalization and growth of microbusinesses in Colombia. The study utilizes data from the DANE Microbusiness Survey (EMICRON) for the 2019-2022 period, applying the Propensity Score Matching method alongside binary choice models to analyze this relationship. The findings underscore that access to credit is positively and significantly related to the growth and formalization of these businesses across the four dimensions studied: entry, inputs, production, and taxation. The analysis includes a distinction between financing provided by formal and informal entities, revealing that microbusinesses with access to formal credit exhibit a higher propensity for formalization and achieve more pronounced growth compared to those reliant on informal credit sources. Furthermore, when analyzing by the owner's gender, microbusinesses led by women with access to formal credit demonstrate superior outcomes in formalization and growth compared to those led by men. Finally, the regional-level analyses reveal significant variations in the results, underscoring the economic and social disparities across Colombia's diverse regions. |
| Keywords: | Acceso a crédito, micronegocios, formalización y crecimiento empresarial, crédito formal/informal, género, análisis departamental, Credit access, microbusiness, formalization and business growth, formal and informal credit, gender, regional level |
| JEL: | G21 J16 O16 O17 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1302 |
| By: | Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm |
| Abstract: | The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a non-reciprocal trade preference offered by the United States to Sub-Saharan African countries, is set to expire on 30 September 2025. The present article examines the effect of the AGOA suspension on poverty in suspended countries. The analysis covers an unbalanced sample of 43 SSA countries, of which 15 SSA countries at least once from the benefits of the AGOA (the treatment group), and 28 SSA countries eligible to the benefits of the programme, but that never suspended from those benefits (control group). The empirical findings indicate that the AGOA suspension has raised poverty in suspended countries, with countries that export non-resource products being the most adversely affected. In addition, the AGOA suspension results in a higher poverty rate in the long-term than in the short-term. Finally, the analysis has revealed that the poverty situation of suspended countries has worsened relatively to countries that never benefited from the programme. This shows that the poverty situation of the suspended countries has deteriorated after the AGOA suspension compared to what their situation would have been if they did not benefit from the programme. The analysis sheds light on the poverty increases consequences of the AGOA suspension, and also points to the adverse consequences of the uncertainty surrounding non-reciprocal trade preferences for beneficiary countries. |
| Keywords: | AGOA Suspension, Poverty, Sub-Saharan African countries |
| JEL: | F14 I30 O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:309194 |
| By: | Patrick A. Imam; Jonathan R. W. Temple |
| Abstract: | Can high levels of state capacity protect countries from slow growth and deepening output collapses? Using data for 108 developing countries, we classify five-year periods using a two- dimensional state space based on growth regimes and levels of state capacity. We model transitions between them using a finite state Markov chain, and then extend this to take political institutions into account. We find that high state capacity helps to sustain growth and limit output collapses, but these effects are sometimes less striking than the benefits of democracy. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; state capacity; autocracy; democracy |
| Date: | 2025–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/014 |
| By: | Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; You, Liangzhi |
| Abstract: | We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1, 053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit. |
| Keywords: | credit; productivity; investment; smallholders; welfare; risk; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Kenya |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2303 |
| By: | Fred Nimoh; Innocent Yao Yevu; Attah-Nyame Essampong; Asante Emmanuel Addo; Addai Kevin |
| Abstract: | Maize farming is a major livelihood activity for many farmers in Ghana. Unfortunately, farmers usually do not obtain the expected returns on their investment due to reliance on rudimentary, labor-intensive, and inefficient methods of production. Using cross-sectional data from 359 maize farmers, this study investigates the profitability and determinants of the use of tractor services for maize production in Ejura-Sekyedumase, Ashanti Region of Ghana. Results from descriptive and profitability analyses reveal that tractor services such as ploughing and shelling are widely used, but their profitability varies significantly among farmers. Key factors influencing profitability include farm size, fertilizer quantity applied, and farmer experience. Results from a multivariate probit analysis also showed that farming experience, fertilizer quantity, and profit per acre have a positive influence on tractor service use for shelling, while household size, farm size, and FBO have a negative influence. Farming experience, fertilizer quantity, and profit per acre positively influence tractor service use for ploughing, while farm size has a negative influence. A t-test result reveals a statistically significant difference in profit between farmers who use tractor services and those who do not. Specifically, farmers who utilize tractor services on their maize farm had a return to cost of 9 percent more than those who do not (p-value |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.15797 |
| By: | Elacqua, Gregory; Rodrigues, Mateus; Rosa, Leonardo |
| Abstract: | Teacher turnover is a major challenge for human resource management in schools, adversely affecting student learning. We examine the impact of a monetary incentive program introduced in 2022 in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, which aims to reduce teacher turnover by allocating wage premiums ranging from 5% to 25% of base salary based on schools turnover levels. Our results show a significant reduction in turnover: an average decrease of 18% across all schools, with an even more pronounced 30% reduction in schools offering higher incentives. Notably, the program also attracted new teachers to these higher-incentive schools. An analysis of teacher preferences similarly reveals a shift towards schools offering greater wage premiums. Furthermore, we find that schools offering high incentives experienced significant improvements in student test scores, with gains of 0.3-0.6 standard deviations in standardized assessments. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of monetary incentives in mitigating teacher turnover and improving educational outcomes, providing evidence-based guidance for policymakers developing teacher retention strategies. |
| Keywords: | Teachers;financial incentives;teacher shortage;Teacher sorting;turnover rates;disadvantaged schools |
| JEL: | I21 J45 J63 M52 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13950 |
| By: | Brotherhood, Luiz; Da Mata, Daniel; Santos, Cezar; Guner, Nezih; Kircher, Philipp |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates informal employment in Brazil's highly regulated labor market, focusing on the intensive margin of informality within formal firms. Using a comprehensive dataset of labor audits conducted from 1997 to 2012, we find that formal firms caught with informal workers face sustained slower growth. Informal workers are found across firms of all sizes, and their characteristics closely resemble those of formal employees. Building on these empirical findings, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where firms balance the flexibility of informality against potential costs. Our framework can be used to explore government policy implications and to examine the impact of audit strategies on informality, output, and workers welfare. |
| JEL: | J01 H20 J2 L11 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13864 |
| By: | Felipe J. Fonseca; Samir Jahan; Irving Llamosas‐Rosas; Tomohide Mineyama; Erick Rangel‐Gonzalez; Hugo Tuesta |
| Abstract: | Per capita growth of the Mexican economy has lagged behind G20 peers in past decades with notable disparities between the north and south. In this paper, we build on the income convergence literature by examining the impact of domestic market integration on regional growth. To this end, we incorporate insights from the Law of One Price and construct a novel measure of the strength of domestic market integration from micro-level price data. We find that domestic market integration is strongly associated with regional growth and its spillovers, along with other structural factors such as human capital and infrastructure. Our result also indicates that neighboring states’ income level and their integration into the national economy is positively correlated with a state’s growth, suggesting cross-state spillover effects and regional clustering. |
| Keywords: | Income convergence; regional economic growth; domestic market integration; structural impediments |
| Date: | 2025–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/021 |
| By: | Alain Babatoundé; Bart Capéau; Romain Houssa |
| Abstract: | In West Africa, the Value Added Tax (VAT) policy consists of a uniform tax rate, but several items consumed by rich and poor households, are exempted. We provide an optimal tax framework to reflect on the welfare effects of such a tariff structure, in the context of current debates on domestic resource mobilisation in low-income countries (LICs). Our analysis includes the distinguishing feature that a significant part of the consumption goods in LICs stems from own production, and can therefore not be taxed. We also account for preference heterogeneity over market goods and auto-consumption. A preference consistent individual welfare measure that depends on both types of goods, is used. To deter mine optimal tax rates, individual welfare levels are aggregated by social welfare functions with different degrees of inequality aversion. We apply this framework to household data from Benin. The results support reforms for alternative VAT rate structures that improve welfare in the region. In comparison to the current VAT policy, our reforms yield higher average relative welfare gains for the lower deciles. Due to preferences heterogeneity, however, we find winners and losers in all welfare deciles. We develop a bootstrap procedure to construct confidence intervals on welfare indicators. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:746845 |
| By: | Amarante, Verónica; Galván, Estefanía; Yapor, Mijail |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel insights into labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery period in Uruguay. Using social security administrative records, we focus on the gender-differentiated patterns of labor market transitions following the pandemic outbreak, compared to a previous period. Furthermore, we evaluate the role of unemployment insurance (UI) as an instrument for employment protection during the pandemic-induced recession. The analysis reveals that womenparticularly those with children and earning low wagesexperienced greater employment and wage losses compared to men at the pandemics onset, though they showed signs of recovery in later periods. Moreover, women were more likely to transition from UI to formal employment during the pandemic, diverging from previous trends, largely due to the suspension modality (similar to a temporary lay-off) of the Uruguayan UI program. Through a regression discontinuity (RD) approach, the study identifies positive local effects of the beneficiaries of the UI suspension program on the probability of being employed and earning higher wages for both men and women, eight and twelve months after entering the program. These findings carry significant policy implications, underlying the importance of maintaining and potentially expanding UI programs with temporary suspension schemes, and the necessity of adapting social protection systems to respond quickly to crises. Our results underscore the potential of temporary layoff unemployment insurance schemes in developing countries as effective tools to address unexpected crises or shocks like COVID-19, preserving employment relationships and facilitating faster economic recovery. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19;gender;labor market;Unemployment insurance |
| JEL: | J16 J08 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13944 |
| By: | Hinh T. Dinh |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the past performance of industrialization in Africa and identifies key considerations for policymaking. To date, African countries have lagged in industrialization compared to other continents, in spite of the determined efforts and aspirations of their leaders. However, recent evidence suggests that Africa’s de-industrialization trend began to reverse in the past decade, with some countries experiencing growth in manufacturing employment. Notably, more jobs have emerged in micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, than in large, formal businesses where productivity is generally higher. Hence, African countries must design development strategies that balance job creation with productivity growth—the foundation of sustainable economic growth. Solely adopting traditional export-oriented industrialization through foreign direct investment (FDI) will not adequately address critical employment concerns, considering Africa's predominantly young population. Conversely, only expanding indigenous, informal economic activities to accommodate the growing labor pool will not bolster long-term economic growth, especially as advanced manufacturing technologies have become more capital-intensive and require specific skills. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp_05-23_0 |