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on Development |
| By: | Donald, Aletheia (World Bank); Goldstein, Markus (World Bank); Koroknay-Palicz, Tricia (World Bank); Sage, Mathilde (Catholic University Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how women's fertility responds to increases in their earnings and household wealth using six experiments conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa. Contrary to predictions that an increase in female earnings raises the opportunity cost of childbearing and that this will lower fertility, we find that an increase in the profits of female business-owners in Ethiopia and Togo results in them having more children. We also observe a positive fertility response to increases in the value of household assets induced by land formalization programs in Benin and Ghana. These results are driven by women who are in most need of sons for support in old age or in the event of widowhood. Our findings suggest that women's lack of long-term economic security is an important driver of fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | fertility, households, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | J13 O12 D13 J12 I32 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17500 |
| By: | Muñoz-Morales, Juan S. (IÉSEG School of Management) |
| Abstract: | This study provides evidence that natural disasters negatively affect student outcomes, potentially explaining the lower academic achievement of students in rural areas compared to their urban counterparts in developing countries. Using data from the Colombian school census, I estimate a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits variation from an unusual rainfall shock affecting over two million people in both urban and rural Colombia. The results show that these disruptions increase school dropout rates and reduce learning outcomes for at least a decade. The effects are concentrated in rural schools, while students in urban schools remain unaffected. I explore several mechanisms and rule out the possibility that the effects are driven by selective migration or a loss of educational resources. Instead, I find evidence that the rainfall shock exacerbated poverty, pushing poorer rural children into unemployment and longer work hours. |
| Keywords: | natural disasters, human capital, education, urban-rural gap, Colombia |
| JEL: | I24 I25 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17542 |
| By: | Shireen AlAzzawi (Santa Clara University); Hai-Anh Dang (World Bank); Vladimir Hlasny (UN ESCWA); Kseniya Abanokova (World Bank); Jere Behrman (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Various challenges are thought to render female-headed households (FHHs) vulnerable to poverty in the Arab region. Yet, previous studies have mixed results and the absence of household panel survey data hinders analysis of poverty dynamics. We address these challenges by proposing a novel typology of FHHs and analyze synthetic panels that we constructed from 20 rounds of repeated cross-sectional surveys spanning the past two decades from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Mauritania, Palestine, and Tunisia. We find that the definition of FHHs matters for measuring poverty levels and dynamics. Most types of FHHs are less poor than non-FHHs on average, but FHHs with a major share of female adults are generally poorer. FHHs are more likely to escape poverty than households on average, but FHHs without children are most likely to do so. While more children are generally associated with more poverty for FHHs, there is heterogeneity across countries in addition to heterogeneity across FHH measures. Our findings provide useful inputs for social protection and employment programs aiming at reducing gender inequalities and poverty in the Arab region. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1727 |
| By: | Roberto Iacono; Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of foreign aid on inter-governmental transfers in India. While anecdotal evidence suggests that the central government substitutes fiscal transfers with earmarked foreign aid for state governments (fungibility), empirical evidence is scant due to the complex procedure of accruing foreign aid by the states. By Constitutional design, all foreign aid projects procured by states accrue to the central government which are then distributed to states as Additional Central Assistance (ACA) on Externally Aided Projects (EAPs). Analysing panel data covering 29 states from 1979 to 2017, we find that EAPs per capita are positively associated with the central government fiscal transfers to states under discretionary head (resource loading), but not with formulaic transfers. Importantly, the positive effect of EAPs on discretionary transfers is contingent on political alignment between the central and state governments, a finding consistent with previous works that demonstrate how recipient governments target aid at the subnational level based on local political factors. These findings have significant policy implications for the centre, state governments, and external aid donors. |
| Keywords: | fiscal transfers, externally aided projects, India |
| JEL: | F35 H70 H74 H77 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11498 |
| By: | Kalliyil, Muneer (Indian Institute of Management Bangalore); Sahoo, Soham (Loughborough University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of political favouritism in the private education market. Using constituency-level panel data and a close-election regression discontinuity design, we estimate the causal effect of having a politician aligned with the state ruling party on the growth of private educational institutions in India. We find that constituencies represented by aligned politicians have a higher growth rate in the number of private schools, while the effect is insignificant for government schools. Similar patterns are also found for higher education institutions. As potential mechanisms, we explore political influence over bureaucratic processes and discrepancies in the enforcement of government regulations. |
| Keywords: | ruling party alignment, private schools, close elections, regression discontinuity design, India |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H11 H75 I25 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17527 |
| By: | Hosam Ibrahim (Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on consumer demand theory, this study examines fertility as a microeconomic decision influenced by household socioeconomic characteristics, focusing on Egypt. This research hypothesizes that increased family size inversely affects child quality and long-term female labor outcomes. Utilizing data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys (ELMPS) over 20 years, the analysis employs a two-stage least square instrumental variable approach, with the number of nonsingleton children as an instrument to address endogeneity in fertility decisions. Results suggest no significant effect of family size on child schooling or female employment outcomes, challenging the presence of a child quantity-quality tradeoff in Egypt despite significant socioeconomic transitions. This highlights potential limitations in policies that solely target family planning to improve educational and labor outcomes. The study's findings contribute to the ongoing debate on fertility economics in developing countries, providing insights into the complex interactions between family size, education, and labor market participation, particularly for women in the MENA region. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1711 |
| By: | Condor Iturrizaga Ronny |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of Peru's 1969 Land Reform on the political representation of marginalized ethnic groups in local elections. Using electoral data from 1963 to 1983, I employ surname analysis and a skin color detection algorithm to identify ethnic groups. I show that greater exposure to land reform increases the candidacy of marginalized ethnic groups, but has no effect on their electoral success. I explore potential channels and find the creation of political parties of peasant or worker origin could be plausible mechanisms for the presence of more candidates from marginalized ethnic groups. |
| JEL: | N5 Q1 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4722 |
| By: | Yasmine Eissa (The American University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of global value chains (GVC) participation in fostering labor market outcomes in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia. While theory suggests an upward GVC effect on labor market conditions, we empirically investigate this assumption in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries endorsed with low GVC participation, weak labor markets, and high labor divides (skilled vs. unskilled and male vs. female). By merging World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) and Integrated Labor Market Panel Surveys (ILMPs) data, we contribute to the literature as follows. First, we differentiate between GVC participation margins (extensive vs. intensive) and capture the effect of each on different labor market outcomes. Second, we explore the moderating role of job skill requirement in the GVCs and wages nexus. Third, we capture the GVC effect on skilled blue-collar and female employment and study the sectoral effect on the latter. Our results show a positive effect of GVCs on real wages, industry wage premium, skilled production workers, and female employment. In addition, the skill requirement strengthens the positive GVC effect on real wages. Results remain robust when we use alternative methodologies to control for endogeneity.political, and demographic factors to understand how they contribute to conflict. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1730 |
| By: | Guimbeau, Amanda (University of Sherbrooke); Ji, Xinde James (University of Florida); Menon, Nidhiya (Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of climate change on intimate partner violence in Bangladesh and shows that policy can mitigate much if not all of the harmful consequences of climate shocks on women. Utilizing a novel dataset linking geo-referenced meteorological remote-sensed data with information on women's agency from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys, we find that dry shocks increase tolerance for intimate partner violence among women in poor and agriculture-dependent communities, amplifying existing social and environmental vulnerabilities. Climate resilience projects funded by the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust (BCCT), a domestic climate fund, mitigate the negative impacts of dry shocks, highlighting the important role of such initiatives in generate positive spillover effects in ameliorating the negative social impacts of changing climate. We show that impacts are mitigated as these projects enhance resilience in agriculture by reducing the effects of droughts on acreage and yield in rainfed areas. Our findings underline the role of targeted policy interventions in fostering climate adaptation and wellbeing. |
| Keywords: | climate change, women's agency, intimate partner violence, adaptation, mitigation, resilience, agriculture, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | Q54 J16 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17529 |
| By: | Oded Galor; Marc Klemp; Daniel C. Wainstock |
| Abstract: | This study reveals the pivotal impact of the prehistoric out-of-Africa migration on global variation in the degree of cultural diversity within ethnic and national populations. Drawing on novel diversity measures—encompassing folkloric and musical traditions among indigenous ethnic groups, as well as norms, values, and attitudes in modern societies—an intriguing pattern emerges: societies whose ancestors migrated farther from humanity's cradle in Africa exhibit lower cultural diversity. These striking findings underscore: (i) the profound role of cultural dynamics in shaping the enduring effects of the out-of-Africa migration on social cohesion, innovativeness, and living standards; (ii) the origins of persistent global variations in cultural expressions within an increasingly interconnected world; and (iii) the roots of variations in societal adaptability to evolving economic and technological landscapes. |
| Keywords: | diversity, culture, out-of-Africa, folkloric diversity, musical diversity, social norms |
| JEL: | O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11524 |
| By: | Alessandra Hidalgo-Arestegui; Patricia Justino; Gabriel Monteiro; Rodrigo Oliveira; Bruce Sianyeuka |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits several waves of two major nationwide representative surveys to document the impacts of climate shocks on individuals and households in Zambia. We merge these datasets with historical precipitation and temperature data at the district level. First, we show the gendered effects of the shocks, which have a higher negative impact on women. Women have a lower probability of being in the labour force and fewer hours of work when experiencing shocks. |
| Keywords: | Zambia, Climate shocks, Labour, Gender, Consumption |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-86 |
| By: | Zulli María Agostina |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of preschool enrollment on maternal labour market outcomes in Brazil, focusing on the effect of sending the youngest child to preschool and how this varies with the presence of other female family members. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to exploit changes in preschool-entry age regulations, I find that enrolling the youngest child in preschool increases the probability of employment or job search by 33% and weekly hours worked by 15 hours, increasing the likelihood of holding a full-time job by 30 percentage points. These effects are not observed for mothers enrolling their non-youngest children. Notably, the employment effects are more pronounced for mothers without other female relatives in the household, highlighting the role of informal childcare in alleviating maternal childcare responsibilities. |
| JEL: | J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4773 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana; Karen Roxana Quinatoa Narváez |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses remittances in fifteeen Latin American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Panama, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Venezuela) by applying fractional integration methods to World Bank annual data. The start year varies from 1970 in Colombia and Venezuela to 2003 in Uruguay, while the end year is 2022 in all cases except Venezuela, for which it is 2016. The chosen approach provides evidence on trends and persistence in the series under investigation. The results indicate that the effects of shocks to remittances are transitory only in Guatemala and Honduras. This might reflect the rather stable employment and wages of migrant workers from these two countries residing in the US, cultural factors, and the relatively small values and/or low volatility of remittances to these two countries. |
| Keywords: | remittances, time trends, persistence, fractional integration |
| JEL: | C22 G20 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11505 |
| By: | Andreas Kyriacaou (Departament d’Economia, Universitat de Girona (Spain)); Ronald Miranda-Lescano (Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos and Departamento de Economía, Universidad de la República (Uruguay), and EMANES fellow); Leonel Muinelo-Gallo (Departamento de Economía and Instituto de Economía, Universidad de la República (Uruguay)); Oriol Roca-Sagales (Departament d’Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Spain)) |
| Abstract: | This article constructs new indicators of subnational disparities in life expectancy for up to 101 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2021, offering critical insights into health inequalities within countries. The findings reveal that subnational disparities in life expectancy are markedly higher in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to other LMIC world regions throughout the period. Moreover, while subnational disparities in life expectancy have decreased in most regions, Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as an exception, with persistently high disparities alongside rising average life expectancy. A country-level analysis indicates that subnational disparities in life expectancy declined in 61 countries, increased in 30, and remained unchanged in 10. A gender-specific analysis highlights that, while women generally live longer than men across all countries studied, subnational life expectancy disparities are greater for women. Sub-Saharan Africa exhibits the largest disparities in female life expectancy and the widest gap in disparities between men and women. |
| Keywords: | subnational disparities, life expectancy, inequality measurement, inequality determinants |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2501 |
| By: | Luis Sarmiento; Martino Gilli; Filippo Pavanello; Soheil Shayegh |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of positive income shocks in helping workers adapt to extreme temperatures. We use daily temperature variations alongside the exogenous implementation of a wage and fiscal policy in Mexican municipalities along the US border to show that increased disposable income significantly reduces temperature-related mortality in treated areas. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that income gains increase households’ adaptive capacity, particularly through higher electricity expenditures and the purchase of electric heaters. Our findings provide causal estimates of how income influences the marginal effect of temperature on mortality and contribute to the debate on the effectiveness of climate-related redistribution policies. |
| Keywords: | temperature, mortality, distributional effects, public policies, minimum wage |
| JEL: | Q51 Q58 J81 J88 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11542 |
| By: | Amira Elayouty (Cairo University); Hala Abou-Ali (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between climate conditions and poverty in Egypt at a subnational level, considering various factors and estimation techniques. Using a functional data analysis (FDA), this paper explores the long-term effects of summer temperatures, winter temperatures, and precipitation on poverty across Egypt. The FDA results highlight the evolving relationship between temperature changes and poverty, emphasizing the heightened influence of summer temperatures on poverty rates over the past three decades. Additionally, the contrast in temperature dynamics before and after 1985 emerges as a significant predictor. A geographically weighted regression model reveals distinct patterns in different areas. The paper contributes to understanding the climate-poverty nexus and emphasizes the need for tailored strategies at the local level for climate resilience and poverty alleviation. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1710 |
| By: | Ali Souag (University of Mascara); Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota and ERF) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact on labor force behavior of the employment agencies program adopted by the Algerian government in 2008. Using pooled cross-sectional labor force survey data on employment and unemployment from 2004 to 2014, we estimate a two-way fixed effects difference-in-difference model with geographic access to an employment agency as the treatment variable. Our findings indicate that access to an employment agency reduces the rate of transition from unemployment to employment and the rate of transition from out of the labor force to employment for both male and females. The impact is more pronounced for older workers and for more educated workers. The program has a positive and significant effect on women’s labor force participation, but much of that effect is through increased unemployment rather than employment. We attribute these results to job seekers using registration at an employment agency to queue for public sector jobs that make up the majority of jobs available through the employment agencies |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1726 |
| By: | Marius Fossum; Inga Heiland; Viktor Moulin |
| Abstract: | Many developed countries grant preferential tariffs to exporters from developing countries through the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), aiming to enhance growth through exporting. On December 31st, 2020, the US GSP expired because the US Congress failed to agree on renewing the program’s funding. We use the expiration as a natural experiment to analyze the trade effects of the GSP countries’ loss of preferential access to the US market. Using a triple difference approach, we find that the expiration caused a significant pain for previously eligible exporters from developing countries: US imports of eligible products from eligible countries dropped by 5-10% due to the expiration. |
| Keywords: | GSP, preferential tariffs |
| JEL: | F13 O19 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11509 |