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on Development |
| By: | Diego A. Martin (Harvard's Growth Lab) |
| Abstract: | Can households' beliefs about future income shocks affect child labor? This paper examines whether the three-year gap between the announcement (in 2014) and the start (in 2017) of the Illicit Crop Substitution Program (ICSP) increased child labor in Colombia. The ICSP provides farmers with financial support for not planting and harvesting coca leaves – the key input of cocaine. My results from a difference-in-differences model using differences in historical coca production show that due to the ICSP announcement, children became four percentage points more likely to work in municipalities with historical coca production than in non–coca-growing areas. Although the likelihood of working increased in coca–growing areas, the hours worked per child declined modestly after the ICSP announcement. The expansion of the children working in coca fields but the decline in working hours per child produce null effects of the announcement on education outcomes. The rise in the expected income affects the time allocation decision within households in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Child labor, Coca cultivation, Anticipated effects, Policy announcements |
| JEL: | J13 J22 K42 O13 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:217 |
| By: | Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo J. (World Bank); Yanez, Gunnar Poppe (Johns Hopkins University) |
| Abstract: | Developing countries face significant challenges in increasing women's labor force participation and improving job quality, partly due to the substantial presence of the informal sector. This paper examines the case of Bolivia, which has the highest level of informality in Latin America. We empirically investigate whether the expansion of children's access to education in Bolivia provides an additional explanation for the reduction in female participation in the informal sector, as children attending school would require less parental supervision. Using a structural model in which mothers decide to participate in formal markets at a cost inversely related to the likelihood of their children being enrolled in school, we find that the rise in primary school enrollment in Bolivia explains up to 40% of the decline in female workers under age 40 in informal markets. Our findings contribute to the growing body of evidence on the positive impact of children's access to education on women's labor market outcomes in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Bolivia, female labor force participation, structural estimation |
| JEL: | C62 D13 J12 J13 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17429 |
| By: | Mohammed, Feiruz Yimer; Khonje, Makaiko G.; Qaim, Matin |
| Abstract: | The small farm sector is home to many of the world’s food insecure and undernourished people. Strategies to make smallholder farming more nutrition-sensitive often focus on agricultural diversification. In addition, women’s empowerment is widely considered useful to improve diets and nutrition. Many studies have analyzed the effects of farm production diversification and of women’s empowerment on dietary outcomes, but mostly in separate strands of literature. Here, we connect these strands of literature to contribute to a better understanding of the multifaceted links between farm production diversity, women’s roles in decision-making, and household diets. Using primary data from Malawi, we show that women’s decision-making is positively associated with farm production diversity and with household dietary diversity. Furthermore, women’s decision-making increases the positive association between farm production diversity and dietary diversity. We also differentiate between different domains of decision-making, including agricultural production, market sales, cash income control, and food purchases. The results suggest that strengthening women’s agency can make smallholder farming more nutrition-sensitive through multiple channels. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:347962 |
| By: | Kalliyil, Muneer (Indian Institute of Management Bangalore); Sahoo, Soham (Loughborough University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how restricted access to microfinance by households affects children's learning outcomes, utilizing a unique natural experiment that halted all microfinance operations in Andhra Pradesh (AP), India, in 2010. The analysis exploits quasi-random variation in district-level exposure to the shock in states other than AP, as the regulation affected lenders' liquidity nationwide. Using difference-in-differences and event study designs, we find a significant and persistent decline in children's learning outcomes. The restoration of credit access does not fully reverse these effects, highlighting the long-term consequences of short-term financial disruptions. As plausible mechanisms, we find a shift in enrollment from private to government schools, lower household spending on education, reduced food expenditure impacting nutrition, and a decline in mothers' employment. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the adverse effects were more prominent for girls and younger children. By focusing on the effects of regulatory restrictions rather than micro-finance service provision, this study complements existing literature and provides a more comprehensive understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of microfinance. |
| Keywords: | microfinance regulation, credit constraint, learning outcomes, schooling, education, India |
| JEL: | E51 G21 G28 I2 J16 R51 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17404 |
| By: | Moritz Goldbeck; Valentin Lindlacher |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of early internet availability at basic speeds on local economic development in remote areas of developing countries by analyzing nighttime light emissions across towns in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we exploit submarine cable arrivals, which established countrywide internet connections, and the rollout of the national backbones, which defines internet access within countries. Estimating on incidentally connected mid-sized towns, we find that early internet availability increases nighttime light intensity by 10 percent. We consider increased employment as the main explanation. Our findings highlight the importance of closing the digital divide for regional development. |
| Keywords: | ICT, economic development nighttime lights, Sub-Saharan Africa, cybercafé, internet access, employment, submarine cables |
| JEL: | O18 R11 L96 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11308 |
| By: | Wayne Aaron Sandholtz; Wayne Sandholtz |
| Abstract: | I use variation in ex-ante school fee payments to measure how Free Secondary Education (FSE) affected primary students in Tanzania. I first confirm FSE increased secondary access: secondary enrollments rose, household spending on secondary school fees plummeted, and elites’ transition premium disappeared. I then show that FSE increased primary exam pass rates by 6% and secondary transition rates by 23%. This was not due to supply inputs: there was no effect on school entry, and class sizes rose. Instead it appears to be driven by demand-side investments: primary students selected into better schools, attended more, and worked less. |
| Keywords: | school access, human capital investments, high-stakes exam data, Tanzania |
| JEL: | I25 H52 O12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11343 |
| By: | Cruzatti C., John (ISS, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Rieger, Matthias (ISS, Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | A substantial share of the world's children reside in disaster-prone areas and suffer from stunted growth. Child growth in the first 1000 days of life can falter depending on health endowments and investments. We investigate growth faltering and catch-up in children exposed to comparable earthquakes in utero. Our analysis leverages within cluster or mother variation, controls for temporal trends, and utilizes a global sample of localized data spanning several decades. On average, we document modest adverse effects on children's height that are more pronounced when earthquakes are more unexpected and higher in magnitude. These average effects, however, conceal negative short-term effects and posterior recovery mechanisms via parental health investments, economic recouping, and foreign aid, which facilitate subsequent catch-up growth of children. We discuss our findings and contributions within the literature on child health and disasters, which has largely been confined to single-country studies. |
| Keywords: | child health, natural disasters, global evidence, local data, aid |
| JEL: | I15 I18 J13 O15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17372 |
| By: | Nabeel Asharaf (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer BN19RH); Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, B91 NSL Falmer, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | This study critically evaluates the impact of the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana(PMUY) on LPG accessibility among poor households in India. Using Propensity Score Matching and Differencein-Differences estimators and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) dataset, the Average Treatment Effect on the intendedly Treated is a modest 2.1 percentage point increase in LPG consumption due to PMUY, with a parallel decrease in firewood consumption. Regional analysis reveals differential impacts, with significant progress in the North, West, and South but less pronounced effects in the East and North East. The study also underscores variance across social groups, with Scheduled Caste households showing the most substantial benefits, while Scheduled Tribes households are hardly affected. Despite the PMUY’s initial success in facilitating LPG access, sustaining its usage remains challenging. Policy should emphasise targeted interventions, income support, and address regional and community-specific disparities or the sustained usage of LPG. |
| Keywords: | PMUY, Energy Poverty, Program Evaluation, India, BPL Households |
| JEL: | I38 O13 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0924 |
| By: | Dong, Kangyin (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Liu, Yang (School of Business, Faculty of Business and Law, University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia); Nepal, Rabindra (School of Business, Faculty of Business and Law, University of Wollongong, Australia); Zhao, Congyu (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China) |
| Abstract: | Energy assistance programs aim to improve the energy and environmental conditions of the recipient countries. However, energy aid can also have potential health effects for households, which remain relatively underexplored in the literature. We use a set of regression and mechanism models with panel data from 113 countries spanning from 2002 to 2020. Our results show that energy aid inhibits household health losses from air pollution-induced premature mortality. Also, the household health losses differ among demographic groups and geographical regions. We then analyze the moderating and mediating effects of key factors. The efficiency of energy aid varies notably among the males, children, and high-income groups. Furthermore, energy aid helps alleviate household health losses across regions and government quality and social development enhance the health benefits. Financial development and low-carbon energy transition are crucial impact channels, which means that energy aid indirectly reduces household health losses by facilitating financial development and low-carbon energy transition of recipient countries. Finally, we propose implications for greater energy aid utilization and better sustainable development pathways. |
| Keywords: | Energy aid; Household health; Government quality; Financial development |
| JEL: | C33 F35 Q43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2024_016 |
| By: | Soyoung Kim (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo); Yuki Higuchi (Sophia University); Kei Kajisa (Kyoto University); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economcis, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Despite emerging academic interest in place-based policies, their impact on long-term structural transformation remains underinvestigated, especially in developing countries. This study explores the combined effects of infrastructure development (highway, industrial park, and school establishments) in transforming agrarian communities in the Philippines using 40 years of family dynasty data, combined with satellite imagery and public administrative data. The results suggest that infrastructure development has led to structural transformations by increasing the probability of male employment in modern sectors and facilitating female human capital investments. Additionally, both the demand and supply sides of labor are key to successful modernization through place-based policies. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2024cf1237 |
| By: | Patricio Goldstein (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Timothy Freeman; Alejandro Rueda-Sanz; Shreyas Gadgin Matha; Sarah Bui; Nidhi Rao; Timothy Cheston (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Sebastian Bustos (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | The Colombian Amazon faces the dual challenge of low economic growth and high deforestation. High rates of deforestation in Colombia have led to a perceived trade-off between economic development and protecting the forest. However, we find little evidence of this trade-off: rising deforestation is not associated with higher economic growth. In fact, the forces of deforestation of some of the world’s most complex biodiversity are driven by some of the least complex economic activities, like cattle-ranching, whose subsistence-level incomes are unable to meet the economic ambitions for the region. All the while, the majority of the Amazonian departments’ population works in non-forested cities and towns, at a distance from the agriculture frontier that forms the “arc of deforestation.” The relative urbanization of the Amazonian departments, despite the vast land mass available, recognizes that prosperity is achieved through close social-economic interactions to expand the knowledge set available to be able to produce more, and more complex activities. Achieving economic goals therefore relies on creating new productive opportunities in non-forested, urban areas. |
| Keywords: | Colombia, Peru, Amazon Rainforest, deforestation |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:210 |
| By: | Chun Chee Kok (Monash University); Gedeon J. Lim (University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run effects of a colonial-era, large-scale resettlement program of ethnic minorities, on contemporary economic outcomes and political preferences of ethnic majority individuals in receiving areas. In ethnic Malay-majority Malaysia, the colonial British relocated 500, 000 rural ethnic Chinese minorities into fenced-up, isolated, monoethnic camps (1948 – 1960) all across rural Malaysia. This brought some pre-existing ethnic Malay-majority areas into closer contact with ethnic Chinese minorities but not others. Criteria for resettlement locations were largely military in nature. Using a spatial randomization inference-type approach, we construct counterfactual village locations based on this criteria. We find that areas located immediately next to Chinese New Villages (0-2km) experienced better economic outcomes and, in turn, had lower vote shares for the ethno-nationalistic coalition, than polling districts located next to similarly suitable, counterfactual locations. We provide suggestive evidence that these lower vote shares were driven by all voters, not just the ethnic Chinese. Together, our results suggest that persistent differences in inter-ethnic proximity can have a lasting, negative impact on voter preferences for ethno-nationalistic politics through improvements in economic outcomes and sustained increases in casual, interethnic interactions. |
| Keywords: | ethnic diversity, inter-group contact, immigration, Southeast Asia, voting |
| JEL: | D72 J15 P50 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2024-06 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod |
| Abstract: | Resilience thinking has gained prominence in research and policy debates in food security analysis. This article aims to estimate the effect of household resilience capacity on food security outcomes. The manuscript uses the Cambodia Living Standard Measurement – Plus Survey 2019-2020. The measurement of resilience capacity is done through Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis – II by FAO. In the RIMA approach, the manuscript also applies Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) to cluster households, categorizing homogenous resilience levels through “Low Resilient, ” “Medium Resilient, ” and “High Resilient” profiles. In the estimation strategy, the current study proposes a step-by-step analytical approach for using the propensity score matching (PSM) techniques with LPA to draw causal effects of resilience profiles on dietary diversity and food expenditure per capita. The findings generally confirm that “Medium Resilient” and “High Resilient” households have positive effects on food security outcomes compared to those labelled as “Low Resilient” households. |
| Keywords: | Resilience capacity, food security, latent profile analysis, average treatment effect, propensity score matching |
| JEL: | Q18 Q13 O20 C01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:305322 |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Hema, Aboubacar |
| Abstract: | This report describes the methodology and output behind the integration and enhancement of nationally representative household surveys on food security and coping strategies implemented in the G5 Sahel countries between 2018 and 2023. Whereas the data integration process involves the harmonization of variables across multiple cross-sectional surveys, the enhancement procedure focuses on adding shock data on multiple dimensions of political violence, food price anomalies, and climate- and weather-related events. Despite shortcomings in data quality and exhaustivity, the resulting datasets represent a unique playground to study the interaction between shocks and stressors on the one hand and household coping strategies and their impact on food security on the other hand. |
| Keywords: | climate; food security; households; violence; Burkina Faso; Chad; Mali; Mauritania; Niger; Africa; West and Central Africa; Sahel |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:158183 |
| By: | Vladimir Hlasny |
| Abstract: | Many of the world’s LDCs are plagued by recurring conflict. Conflict impedes sustainable development through various channels, creating conditions conducive to further conflict. Conflict has redistributive impacts, particularly when it erupts in resource-rich countries. Between 2002 and 2011, Côte d’Ivoire faced off two spells of civil war (2002–2007 and 2010–2011) along geographic, religious, ethno-linguistic and economic lines. Poverty and inequality rose throughout the decade. We investigate how the civil war and the associated changes in the political balance impinged on the economic performance of the affected geographic/ religious/ ethnic groups at various income deciles. Growth incidence curves before–after conflict illustrate the income changes experienced by the respective socioeconomic groups. Accounting for distortions due to individual selection and general-equilibrium spillovers, unconditional quantile regressions fitted by the means of a recentered influence function are used to isolate between-group gaps in household incomes attributable to conflict. The results on microdata from three Household Living Standards Surveys (2002, 2008 and 2015) confirm that as the political tide shifted, the economic fortunes of the affected groups turned. Previously marginalized communities – the northern, Gour and Mandé ethnic, and non-Christian groups – have bridged some of their disadvantage in terms of their endowments and the market returns on them. These changes are clearest in the upper half of the income spectrum, leading to profound changes in social order. |
| JEL: | D74 D31 D63 N37 O55 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:862 |
| By: | Hoyos, Mateo (Center for Research and Teaching in Economics); Coronado, José Alejandro; Martins, Guilherme Klein |
| Abstract: | This paper presents novel empirical evidence on the impact of trade on structural transformation. Leveraging quasi-experimental tariff variation from Brazil's trade liberalization in the 1990s, we examine its effects on regional sectoral employment shares. Building on recent cross-regional macroeconomic literature, we approximate the aggregate effects of trade on structural change by extending the traditional shift-share analysis to include estimates of spatial spillover effects, beyond the commonly reported local or direct impacts. Our findings reveal that Brazilian regions directly exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a significant decrease in manufacturing employment shares, an increase in the primary sector, and a decline in non-tradables. Spatial spillover effects—whether based on migration or gravity links—are positive for manufacturing and the primary sector but negative for non-tradables. While positive spillovers in manufacturing partially offset local deindustrialization, the net effects remain negative and economically significant. These effects persisted for at least twenty years post-liberalization and are independent of potential confounders, including alternative structural change hypotheses and other shocks to Brazil's economy during the study period. Our results are consistent with the theoretical literature on trade and structural transformation which emphasizes the significance of comparative advantage. |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rfqvt |
| By: | Rabah Arezki; Youssouf Camara; Frederick van der Ploeg; Grégoire Rota-Graziosi; Rick van der Ploeg |
| Abstract: | This paper explores whether foreign aid is self-interested, exploiting the timing and size of major mineral discoveries. We first analyze the effect a resource discovery in a two-by-two donor-recipient model with conflict about natural resources, using a contest success function. We then estimate the effects of major discoveries using a gravity model for a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Results show that recipient countries that experience major discoveries receive more, not less, bilateral aid, all else equal. Our benchmark result is that following a mineral discovery, a recipient country receives 36% more aid compared to a country without such a discovery. That is a paradox considering that major discoveries are associated with an effective relaxation of international borrowing constraints. |
| Keywords: | bilateral aid, self-interested donors, mineral discoveries, contests |
| JEL: | E00 F30 O10 O20 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11427 |
| By: | Sulinkhundla Maseko (Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development - University of Pretoria [South Africa]); Selma T Karuaihe (Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development - University of Pretoria [South Africa]); Damien Jourdain (Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Evaluating the impact of agricultural practices helps policymakers and farmers in their decisionmaking. In Zambia, most households depend on agricultural activities, in particular maize production. This paper examines the impact of the adoption of residue retention on households' maize yield in northern Zambia. We used the propensity score matching (PSM) method. By using the probit model, we also determined the factors that influence the adoption of residue retention. The results show that adopting residue retention has a positive and significant net effect on household maize yield. Residue retention traps moisture in the soil and improves soil structure. This suggests that a greater focus on this aspect is required to encourage more farmers to adopt residue retention to improve maize yield. Government policies can be structured to promote residue retention among smallholder farmers. |
| Keywords: | impact evaluation propensity score matching residue retention Zambia, impact evaluation, propensity score matching, residue retention, Zambia |
| Date: | 2023–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04525209 |
| By: | Diego De la Fuente (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer BN19RH) |
| Abstract: | This research studies the connection between income and criminal engagement. Focusing on the impact of remittance transfers on diverse categories of crime, the study concentrates on Mexico, a country characterized by high levels of remittances and unique crime dynamics. The estimates show through a combination of methods and using a quarterly panel data of municipalities for the period of 2013 to 2023- that higher income transfers have a significant reducing effect on violent crime, but also an inducing effect on property theft. The results also show that the effect of the income transfer increases with the transfer size and when accompanied with higher levels of social deprivation within the mu-nicipality. The analysis aims to offer lessons for scholars and policymakers on the relationship between welfare outside crime and crime participation. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Income transfers, Remittances |
| JEL: | K42 J4 F24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:1024 |
| By: | Alexia Lochmann (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Nidhi Rao; Martin A. Rossi |
| Abstract: | Can South Africa’s segregation policies explain, at least partially, its current poor employment outcomes? To explore this question, we study the long-term impact of the forced resettlement of around 3.5 million black South Africans from their communities to the so-called “homelands” or “Bantustans”, between 1960 and 1991. Our empirical strategy exploits the variability in the magnitude of resettlements between communities. Two main findings. First, the magnitude of outgoing internal migrations was largest for districts close to former homelands. Second, districts close to former homelands have higher rates of non-employed population in 2011. Together the evidence suggests that districts that experienced racial segregation policies most intensely, as measured by outgoing forced resettlements, have worse current employment outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Homelands; Employment; Apartheid; Segregation policies |
| JEL: | J15 J21 J61 J71 N37 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:194 |
| By: | Katoch, Sonali; Kumar, Anjani; Kolady, Deepthi E.; Sharma, Kriti |
| Abstract: | This study examines the adoption of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) using cross-sectional data collected at the farm level in three key states of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh in 2023. A Food Safety Index (FSI) was developed to assess the intensity of adoption of food safety practices. Determinants of compliance with practices were assessed using multiple linear regression and an ordered logistic model. Generalized propensity score matching was used to evaluate the heterogenous impact of the adoption of FSM on farm-level performance indicators. The findings indicate that farmers are embracing a moderate level (0.48–0.58) of the food safety index at the farm level. The various socioeconomic and demographic factors influence compliance with FSM which include education, income, marketing channel, training exposure, awareness level, and infrastructure. The impact assessment reveals the direct relationship between FSM compliance and performance indicators. However, a lower level of compliance may not yield significant improvements. The study suggests incentivization through pricing reforms, improving infrastructure, and strengthening formal marketing channels. |
| Keywords: | dairy farming; data; food safety; impact assessment; smallholders; Asia; Southern Asia; India |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2281 |
| By: | Eloiza Regina Ferreira de Almeida; Veneziano C. Araujo; Solange Gonçalves |
| Abstract: | Few studies analyze how the urban wage premium is different for informal workers, and their results are controversial. This paper aims to clarify the reason for this mixed evidence, evaluating how workers’ heterogeneity in terms of labor contract - formal or informal - and occupational position - as wage-earner or self-employed - may impact the magnitude and direction of the UWP estimates. We address this investigation by analyzing the Brazilian labor market using the PNADC (IBGE) longitudinal database for the period from 2012 to 2019. The results show that formal workers present an increasing UWP according to the urban scale, as seen in many previous studies for developed or developing countries. In its turn, informal workers UWP is double the formal ones but is reduced in denser areas. Thus, our study shows previous UWP studies that focus only on formal workers could underestimate the magnitude of this premium for the whole labor market and that disregarding the groups of workers hides the complexity inherent of their insertion in the large urban labor markets. Also, different estimations highlight some mechanisms on the UWP explanation, such as sorting and matching. These results add new insights to the UWP in Brazil, signaling the importance of analyzing the whole labor market. |
| Keywords: | Urban wage premium; Informality; Workers' heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R23 J46 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon25 |
| By: | Hoffmann, Bridget; Dueñas, Juliana; Goytia, Alejandra |
| Abstract: | Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days. We use a panel regression framework at the sub-national (i.e., region) level to identify the effect of extreme heat on economic growth in Latin America accounting for acclimation to the season and to the local climate. Extreme heat has a negative and significant impact on economic growth, and the magnitude of the impact is increasing in the intensity and duration of heat. Our results suggest that the impact of each additional consecutive day of extreme heat is greater than the impact of the prior day. Extreme heat affects economic growth directly in addition to its indirect effect through higher seasonal mean temperatures and extreme heat could account for 34-68% of the total projected reduction in the annual economic growth rate at midcentury due to temperature change. Our results suggest that extreme heat is one potential channel for the documented non-linearity in the impacts of rising mean temperature. |
| Keywords: | extreme heat;heat waves;economic growth |
| JEL: | Q5 Q54 Q51 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13810 |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Hema, Aboubacar |
| Abstract: | The objective of this analysis is to gain more insight into the coping behavior of households in Mali when facing covariate shocks and stressors of different kinds. To achieve this, we rely on a unique dataset, which consists of eleven waves of cross-sectional household data combined with an extensive list of shock indicators compiled from external sources. Apart from a detailed profiling of both dimensions, this analysis relies on a data mining algorithm to uncover interesting associations between covariate shocks and coping strategies. Among the main findings of this study is the pronounced diversity in shock and coping profiles observed across time and place, which in turn complicates any straightforward identification of common and consistent patterns in household coping behavior. This said, political violence has increased over time; food prices hiked in 2018, 2022 and 2023; rainy seasons were underperforming in 2021 and 2023; extreme weather events reached a peak in 2021; while the Gao region in 2023 suffered from all five shock domains at the same time. While fewer households resorted to coping over time, those who did combined slightly more strategies – which either points to increased inequality or generalized depletion of coping potential. Further, poor and erratic weather conditions appear to be important triggers for households to disinvest in farming and livestock activities, with food secure people being more inclined to resort to emergency coping when shocks prevail. This analysis also very much reveals the need for additional research on the same integrated and enhanced dataset. |
| Keywords: | households; shock; violence; conflicts; food prices; extreme weather events; farming systems; livestock; food security; Western Africa; Mali |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:158282 |
| By: | Maria Pia Iocco (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, BN1 9SL, UK, Economics & Institute for Policy Research (IPR), University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of an educational reform in Guatemala that modified the training of primary teachers from three years at the secondary level (grades 10 to 12 of a diversified cycle in high school) to a combination of two years of high school and three at a university, obtaining a Bachelor of Education (B.Ed.) before being able to apply to become a primary school teacher. Exploiting the timing of the implementation and an unaffected group of students as controls, I analyse the effects at the student levels in terms of enrolment and performance during their high school years and the effects on official teachers’ colleges regarding performance due to the opportunity of financial aid for their students. Results show a decrease in enrolment for primary teaching students, negative but not always significant results in math, and mixed results in reading. Besides, I also observed a change in the characteristics of aspiring educators. Official teachers’ colleges experienced an initial increase in their primary teaching performance compared to other types of schools, but the effect faded after a couple of years, becoming negative |
| Keywords: | teacher training, teacher recruiting, policy reform, primary teachers, Guatemala |
| JEL: | I21 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0624 |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Hema, Aboubacar |
| Abstract: | The objective of this analysis is to gain more insight into the coping behavior of households in Chad when facing covariate shocks and stressors of different kinds. To achieve this, we rely on a unique dataset, which consists of eleven waves of cross-sectional household data combined with an extensive list of shock indicators compiled from external sources. Apart from a detailed profiling of both dimensions, this analysis relies on a data mining algorithm to uncover interesting associations between covariate shocks and coping strategies. Among the main findings of this study is the pronounced diversity in shock and coping profiles observed across time and place, which in turn complicates any straightforward identification of common and consistent patterns in household coping behavior. This said, political violence has increased until 2022 and then fell back; food prices hiked in 2022 and 2023; rainy seasons were underperforming in 2021 and 2023; extreme weather events reached a peak in 2022; while four departments in 2023 suffered from four distinct shock domains at the same time. While coping prevalence and coping intensity are roughly aligned over time, they are only weakly correlated in geographical terms in 2023. Further, the biggest change in people’s coping behavior involves keeping children from school when confronted with severe political violence coupled with severe climate change and light seasonal performance shocks – while many distinct combinations apply for different subpopulations. Finally, this analysis also very much reveals the need for additional research on the same integrated and enhanced dataset. |
| Keywords: | shock; households; violence; conflicts; food prices; extreme weather events; schools; climate change; food security; Africa; Chad |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:158285 |
| By: | Saowaruj RATTANAKHAMFU (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Naparit CHANTAWASINKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Nuttawut LAKSANAPANYAKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Nuttawut Warakorn AWUTPANYAKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Nuttawut Natcha YONGPHIPHATWONG (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between urban density and productivity, specifically wages adjusted for provincial price differences, in four major cities of Thailand: Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Khon Kaen, and Songkla. Utilising the ArcGIS survey of Khon Thai 4.0 data, which measures urban density as the number of inhabitants per grid cell area, we employ the two-stage least squares estimation technique to address endogeneity concerns. Our findings demonstrate that higher urban density leads to an 8.9% increase in individual hourly wages at the 5% significance level. This supports the notion that densely populated urban areas foster enhanced productivity through agglomeration economies and knowledge spillovers. Furthermore, we observe the expected impacts of education, age, and gender on wages. Higher education is associated with an 8.2% increase in wages, highlighting its influence on labour productivity. Age exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship, indicating that experience and skill development lead to higher wages up to a certain threshold. Male workers earn approximately 5.83% more than their female counterparts, revealing a gender wage gap. Moreover, our analysis reveals contrasting effects of higher urban density on skilled and unskilled workers. Skilled workers experience a significant 15.2% increase in wages, whereas the impact on unskilled workers remains modest at around 1.8%. Additionally, education significantly contributes to higher wages for both skilled and unskilled workers. This study provides valuable policy implications for promoting labour productivity and addressing urban development challenges in Thailand. |
| Keywords: | Urban development; Urban density; Labour productivity; Wage differentials |
| JEL: | J24 J31 O15 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-12 |
| By: | Iselin, John; McCulloch, Sean; Ryan, Erica |
| Abstract: | Liu et al. (2023) examines the effect of climate change on labor allocation in India over a long time span. The authors find that rising temperatures are correlated with lower shares of workers in non agricultural sectors. They also identify a likely mechanism: falling agricultural productivity leads to a reduction in demand for non-agricultural goods or services, leading to a reduction in labor demand in non-agricultural sectors. We undertake a reproduction and extension of Liu et al. (2023), and find that we are able to computationally reproduce all the numbers produced by the authors up to marginal differences in the calculation of standard errors. We describe a set of data issues that hindered full reproduction of the original dataset, and, in one case, contradicts a claim of data availability made by the authors. Finally, we test the robustness of the main results to a more consistent use of fixed effects and the use of Poisson regression, following Chen and Roth (2024). The Poisson regression approach does not alter the results, but in several of the new fixed effects specifications the author's original results are less conclusive and lose statistical significance. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:180 |
| By: | Finstein, Blaine; Ash, Konstantin; Carnahan, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Carter (2024) examines the historical conditions that shape protection versus assimilation for indigenous communities, arguing that state-led conscription programs are one such factor. In a natural experiment leveraging conscription for a 1920s Peruvian highway designed to replicate a pre-colonial road system (Qhapaq Ñan), Carter finds through a geographic regression discontinuity design that eligibility for state conscription increased the likelihood of a municipality having an indigenous movement by about 30 percentage points (approximately .75 standard deviations) and scores on an omnibus accommodation measure by about .3 items (approximately .4 standard deviations). The omnibus measure includes the number of institutions that an indigenous community reports preserving (increased by .3 items on a 7 point scale, or .25 standard deviations), likelihood of having a communal land title (increased by 12 percentage points, or .3 standard deviations), and likelihood of registration with the government (increased by 9 percentage points, or .3 standard deviations). All point estimates are significant at the .1% level. We successfully computationally reproduce all main claims of the paper but find inconsistencies between the map of the road presented by Carter and that used by Franco et al. (2021) that affect its passage through a small number of municipalities. In order to investigate whether these municipalities drive the main findings without the ability to identify municipalities in the data, we drop municipalities iteratively and re-run the analysis, finding only minor changes in coefficient estimates across subsets. In addition, we explore a number of sensitivity analyses for the regression discontinuity design that vary the functional form, vary the bandwidth window, and use the Rosenbaum method for window selection. While the results remain consistent under all analyses, we recommend for further research to recode treated municipalities on the basis of the alternative road map and explore the as-if random assumption in light of evidence linking proximity to the precolonial road to various economic and political outcomes. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:176 |
| By: | Ketan REDDY (Indian Institute of Management Raipur, India); Subash SASIDHARAN (Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, Chennai, India.); Shandre Mugan THANGAVELU (Sunway University, The University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the implications of economic policy uncertainty on global value chain (GVC) participation and the integration of Indian manufacturing firms using firm-level data. Using panel data from 2004 to 2021, we find that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impedes GVC participation and firm integration. Further, we find that the impact of EPU on GVC participation operates through the financial constraint channel with highly leveraged and low-liquidity firms. Using survival analysis, we also highlight that higher EPU results in higher exit from GVCs and reduces entry into GVCs. |
| Keywords: | Economic policy uncertainty; GVC participation; Manufacturing firms |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-23 |
| By: | María Eugenia Echeberría (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | n Uruguay, women’s employment rates have increased over recent decades, mostly driven by the increase of labour supply of women in couples. However, a significant gender employment gap remains, which reflects the need of correcting for sample selection in empirical wage gap studies. Recent literature studying gender wage gaps have highlighted the importance of correcting for selection into employment along the earnings distribution. In this study, I estimate the evolution of the gender gap in earnings along the earnings distribution, correcting for selection into employment. Based on the Uruguayan household surveys, Encuesta Continua de Hogares, for the period 2009-2019, I apply the three-step quantile selection model proposed by Arellano and Bonhomme (2017) to estimate the selection-corrected hourly earnings distributions. I use a measure of potential out-of-work income as an instrument to correct for selection into employment. Results show that selection patterns vary across marital statuses. Potential earnings gaps are greater than the uncorrected (raw) earnings gap for individuals in couples in all earnings quantiles, albeit maintaining a decreasing trend over the studied period. The difference between both earning distributions is larger for lower earnings quantiles, suggesting the existence of ’sticky floors’. Lastly, when considering married and cohabiting individuals separately, I find that women’s selection into employment is driven by the selection of married women. |
| Keywords: | Gender wage gaps, Sticky floors, Sample selection, Quantile regressions, Glass ceiling |
| JEL: | C21 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-08-24 |
| By: | Andr s G mez-Lobo; Daniel Oviedo |
| Abstract: | We examine three dimensions of spatial inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): between rural and urban areas (rural-urban divide), between large and small cities (metropolitan bias or centralization) and within metropolitan areas (urban segregation). As a first approach, we use information from the Luxembourg Income Study survey data to decompose an inequality measure between urban and rural areas and between large and smaller cities for 9 LAC countries and 13 developed countries. The results indicate that LAC countries are in general more unequal than developed economies along all spatial dimensions. However, there are several salient structural differences between both groups of countries worth noting. First, the rural-urban divide is much larger in absolute terms as well as relative (to overall inequality) terms in LAC compared to the developed countries in the sample. Second, there is some evidence pointing to a centralization or metropolitan bias in the LAC region compared to the developed countries. Within urban inequality measure in smaller cities is the largest decomposition term both in LAC as well as developed countries. This implies that more emphasis should be placed on poverty rates in smaller urban areas and not just large metropolitan areas. As a second approach we characterize the structure of Latin American cities with those of other regions of the world using data from the Atlas of Urban Expansion (AUE) (Blei and Angel, 2021). Finally, we also summarize some case studies to better understand the issues surrounding segregation in LAC urban areas. One feature of LAC is the concentration of the poor in informal settlements in the periphery of cities, generating unequal access to employment, education, and health services as well as other mobility related issues. Overall, we conclude that poverty has a spatial or territorial dimension in LAC that needs to be addressed. Although there is no single policy to tackle the complexity of spatial inequality, in the final section we discuss the importance of infrastructure investments and transport policies to address the issues raised in this paper. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:869 |
| By: | Bailey Klinger; Miguel Angel Santos (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Camilla Arroyo; Ekaterina Vashkinskaya |
| Abstract: | Tanzania’s manufacturing puzzles (and frustrations) seem to be a natural outcome of their policy choice. The Tanzanian economy experienced a significant acceleration over two decades, growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 6% between 1998 and 2018: Largest rates were recorded and sustained by the super commodity cycle 2005-2014. Within that growth trajectory, manufacturing’s share of gross domestic product (GDP) has lingered for 30 years below 10% – well below the 23% target established for 2025 in Tanzania’s Industrial Development Strategy (2011). As stressed by Diao et al. (2021), the bulk of manufacturing value added is created by a few capital-intensive firms, whereas informal manufacturing has increased employment but without significant improvements in productivity/wages. Manufacturing exports surged in 2011 and remained steady since driven by subsector basic metals (gold & unrefined copper). If these are excluded, the curve mirrors the commodity price boom (likely a price boom rather than a volume boom). Looking only at exports conceals the fact that the bulk of the manufacturing output in Tanzania is sold in the domestic market rather than exported: exports are equivalent to less than 2% of GDP; domestic sales are seven times higher. While Food and Beverages make up for the largest share of manufacturing value employment and value-added, basic metals are the ones accounting for the vast majority of Tanzania’s exports. The most binding constraint to investments in manufacturing in Tanzania is the availability and quality of electricity supply: Access to electricity is the lowest among peers, with large disparities between rural (22%) and urban (70%). Electrical outages are frequent and expensive for the manufacturing sector; firms even plan their production schedules and decide on plant locations based on power reliability. And yet, when we analyze the share of value-added against energy intensity at the sub-sector level, the negative relationship to be expected if electricity is indeed the constraint is there, but too fragile and noisy. Why? The strongest evidence points to the role of trade protection in compensating firms for other constraints, allowing existing manufacturers to capture large shares of domestic value-added while remaining uncompetitive in export markets. Large manufacturing subsectors of moderate to high energy intensity and more capital intensive enjoy higher tariff protection, creating a wedge that allows these industries to thrive in the domestic market. Despite joining numerous free trade agreements, Tanzania remains one of the most restrictive countries from a trade standpoint, eased by filing exceptions that shield individual products and entire domestic industries from competition. We have also found that effective taxation in Tanzania is relatively higher on labor (lower on capital, materialized through massive tax holidays granted within SEZ), skewing returns away from the country’s relative labor abundance. Failure to address the binding constraints creates a rationale for upholding protection, which reinforces biases towards capital and energy-intensive sectors. These policies go a long way in explaining the Tanzanian manufacturing puzzle. |
| Keywords: | Tanzania, Growth Diagnostics |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:218 |