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on Development |
| By: | Jocelyn Boussard; Chiara Castrovillari; Tomohide Mineyama; Marta Spinella; Bilal Tabti; Maxwell Tuuli |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the consequences of global shocks on a sample of low- and lower-middle-income countries with a particular focus on fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS). FCS are a group of countries that display institutional weakness and/or are negatively affected by active conflict, thereby facing challenges in macroeconomic policy management. Examining different global shocks associated with commodity prices, external demand, and financing conditions, this paper establishes that FCS economies are more vulnerable to these shocks compared to non-FCS peers. The higher sensitivity of FCS economies is mainly driven by procyclical fiscal responses, aggravated by the lack of effective spending controls and timely access to financial sources. External financing serves as a source of stability, partially mitigating the adverse impact of global shocks. This paper contributes to a better understanding of how conditions of fragility, which are on the rise in many parts of the world today, can amplify the effects of negative exogenous shocks. Its results highlight the diverse nature of underlying sources of vulnerabilities, spanning from fiscal and external buffers to institutional quality and economic structure, with lessons applicable to a broader set of countries. Efficient and timely external financial support from external partners, including international financial institutions, should help countries’ counter-cyclical responses to mitigate adverse shocks and achieve macroeconomic stability. |
| Keywords: | Global shocks; external financing; low-income countries; Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) |
| Date: | 2024–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/214 |
| By: | Madhok, Raahil; Yin, Leikun; Jin, Zhenong |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the development-environment tradeoff from cultivating cash crops. We classify cashew plantations between 2015-2021 across Benin, one of West Africa’s largest cashew producers, using a deep learning model trained on data from field visits. We document large income gains from exposure to these cashew plantations, but at the expense of nearby forest cover. We identify this tradeoff with cross-sectional comparisons on household survey data, two-way fixed effects with panel data, and a shift-share instrumental variables design using global cashew price shifts to instrument local cultivation. A 10 percentage point increase in land share under cashews increases local GDP by 1.3%, but reduces forest cover by 2.6%. Cost- benefit calculations show that doubling cultivation would generate $USD 66 million in aggregate income gains but cost $USD 147 million in terms of forest loss. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaesp:347614 |
| By: | Pascaline Dupas (Princeton University); Seema Jayachandran (Princeton University); Adriana Lleras-Muney (UCLA); Pauline Rossi (Ecole Polytechnique) |
| Abstract: | We conducted a randomized trial among 14, 545 households in rural Burkina Faso to test the oft-cited hypothesis that limited access to contraception is an important driver of high fertility rates in West Africa. We do not find support for this hypothesis. Women who were given free access to medical contraception for three years did not have lower birth rates; we can reject even modest effects. We cross-randomized additional interventions to address possible inefficiencies leading to low demand for free contraception, specifically misperceptions about the child mortality rate, limited exposure to opposing views about family size and contraception, and social pressure. Free contraception did not influence fertility even in combination with these other interventions. |
| Keywords: | Burkina Faso, Family planning; Demographic transition; Social norms; Randomized trial |
| JEL: | J13 J18 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:327 |
| By: | Girija Borker (DIME, World Bank & IZA); Jan Eeckhout (UPF Barcelona (ICREA-BSE-CREi)); Nancy Luke (Pennsylvania State University); Shantidani Minz (Christian Medical College, Vellore); Kaivan Munshi (Yale University and Toulouse School of Economics); Soumya Swaminathan (World Health Organization) |
| Abstract: | Two mechanisms have been proposed to explain sex selection in India: son preference in which parents desire a male heir and daughter aversion in which dowry payments make parents worse off with girls. Our model incorporates both mechanisms, providing micro-foundations, based on the organization of the marriage institution, for daughter aversion. Marital matching, sex selection, and dowries are jointly determined in the model, whose implications are tested on a representative sample of rural households. Simulations of the model indicate that existing policies targeting daughter aversion might exacerbate the problem, while identifying other policies that could be effective. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2408 |
| By: | Kaivan Munshi (Yale University and Toulouse School of Economics); Swapnil Singh (Bank of Lithuania and Kaunas University of Technology); Nancy Luke (Pennsylvania State University); Anu Mary Oommen (Christian Medical College) |
| Abstract: | This research connects two seemingly unrelated facts that have recently been documented in developing countries, with important consequences for global health: (i) the weak association between nutritional status and income, and (ii) the elevated risk of diabetes among normalweight individuals. The model that we develop to reconcile these facts is based on a set point for body size that is adapted to (low) pre-modern food supply, but subsequently fails to adjust to rapid economic change. During the process of development, some individuals thus remain at their low-BMI set point, despite the increase in their income (food consumption), while others who have escaped their set point (but are not necessarily overweight) are at increased risk of diabetes. The model is tested along different dimensions with multiple data sets. Our analysis indicates that many lean diabetics in developing country populations will be close to their individual- specific set point, suggesting a promising approach to diabetes control (reversal) that involves relatively little weight loss. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2407 |
| By: | d'Agostino, Giorgio; Dunne, J. Paul; Pieroni, Luca |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the costs of conflict, focusing on the important channel of its effect on food security. It does this by examining whether people in conflict zones lack sufficient food and whether this can be directly attributed to armed conflicts. It uses the Afrobarometer household survey and data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) for conflict indicators, specifically the number of battle- related events at the regional level. The dataset spans 2012–2022 across 29 African countries.The effect of battle-related events (i.e., battle deaths) on food insecurity is evaluated using a two-way fixed effect and a weighted regression framework that directly addresses unobserved heterogeneity. The model shows that a rise in battle-related events in a region leads to increased food insecurity and this result is found to be robust. When more intense food insecurity is considered conflict is also found to have an even larger effect. This provides evidence that conflict has a significant impact on food security in Africa. This has important health implications and adds to the evidence of the important legacy costs of conflict that can last long after the conflict ends. |
| Keywords: | Food insecurity; Armed conflicts; African regions |
| JEL: | D74 O55 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122247 |
| By: | Janvier Mwisha-Kasiwa (University of Goma, DRC); Cédrick M. Kalemasi (Université de Yaoundé 2, Cameroon); Oasis Kodila-Tedika (University of Kinshasa, DRC) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a pooled dataset of the 2007 and 2014 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to establish the empirical linkages between infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices and children’s nutritional status in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The paper examines all the recommended dimensions of child feeding and builds an index from variables related to breastfeeding, use of bottle-feeding, minimum dietary diversity and number of times child ate solid, semi-solid or soft foods. A series of descriptive analyses and survey-based econometric regressions are carried out while controlling for endogeneity and heterogeneity. The key finding is that infant and young child feeding practices are an important and significant determinant of children’s nutritional status as measured by the height-for-age z-score and the probability of stunting. In particular, an increase in the IYCF practices index by 1 unit increases by 0.47 standard score in the height-for-age z-score while it reduces the probability of child stunting by -0.5 controlling for other covariates. The paper recommends to the DRC’s Ministry of public health to reinforce the parent’s education, especially mothers of children, on the importance of infant and young child feeding practices for the nutrition of their children. |
| Keywords: | Feeding practices, Children’s nutritional outcomes, Instrumental variable, Control functions approach, Democratic Republic of Congo |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:24/023 |
| By: | Athira Vinod (University of Nottinghami) |
| Abstract: | Under the Right to Education Act (2009), the Indian government mandated private schools to reserve 25% of primary school places for socioeconomically disadvantaged children. This study xamines the policy’s spillover effect on private schooling costs. Using household survey data and a difference-in-differences approach, it compares private school fees for disadvantaged children across two age cohorts and survey rounds. Findings show fees decreased by ₹223–₹844 (0.05–0.25 SD) post-policy. A 5% enrolment increase led to a fee reduction of ₹240–₹470 (0.05–0.14SD). The effects are driven by an increased supply of low-fee private schools facilitating cheaper private education for disadvantaged children. |
| Keywords: | Education, Right to Informaion Act |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:176 |
| By: | COCKX Lara (European Commission - JRC); BOTI David |
| Abstract: | Diets are a significant contributor to malnutrition in all its forms. Moreover, changes in food consumption create opportunities and challenges for agrifood systems. An improved understanding of diets is therefore crucial to design appropriate food, agricultural, and nutrition policies. Urbanization is commonly put forward as a determinant of changing diets. Yet, research on this relationship has been challenged by the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes an âurbanâ area. In addition, a simple rural-urban dichotomy has resulted in a focus on the ârural-urban divideâ that disregards the interconnectedness between various types of population agglomerations and masks differences within rural and urban zones. In this study, we combine household survey data on food consumption with satellite data capturing the urbanisation gradient following the harmonized definition of the Degree or Urbanisation. While there are important differences across countries, several patterns emerge clearly including a shift away from traditional staples, towards more conveniently consumed and prepared foods. While the effects are often strongest cities, we find significant differences in food consumption at much lower levels of urbanization. This confirms the importance of moving beyond a simple rural-urban dichotomy and taking into account the great diversity among both rural and urban environments. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:eapoaf:202405 |
| By: | Fall, François Seck; Tchakoute Tchuigoua, Hubert; Vanhems, Anne; Simar, Léopold (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impact of unobserved heterogeneity on microfinance efficiency. Using panel data for 168 microfinance institutions (MFIs) over the period 20102015, we examine the persistence of the effect of unobserved heterogeneity on microfinance efficiency. Using recent nonparametric and robust techniques, we identify a latent heterogeneity factor related to the ability of MFI managers to promote efficiency, independent of MFI size, and analyze its impact on MFI inefficiency measures over time. We then assess the robustness of our results to several factors: the MFI status of the MFI (for-profit or nonprofit), the definition of the efficiency measure (social and financial) and an observed degree of heterogeneity captured by the percentage of women on the board. Finally, we analyze the relationship between our unobserved heterogeneity factor and institutional and socio-economic indicators. |
| Keywords: | OR in developing countries ; Microfinance ; Efficiency ; Unobserved heterogeneity ; Panel data ; Nonparametric robust frontier models |
| Date: | 2024–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiz:louvad:2024020 |
| By: | Kailhao Cai; Mr. Edouard Martin; Mr. Felix J Vardy |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries from 2009 to 2022, focusing on how macroeconomic targets and their achievement differ between fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS. Key findings include similar program targets for FCS and non-FCS, optimism in all dimensions considered other than inflation, and no significant correlation between targets and outcomes. For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes. This underscores the challenges in setting realistic, country and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries. Finally, we discuss potential caveats, including GDP rebenchmarking, non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets, and repeat programs. We do not study, and make no claims about, causality. |
| Keywords: | IMF Programs; LICs; Fragility; Tailoring; Optimism |
| Date: | 2024–10–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/221 |
| By: | Jere R. Behrman (University of Pennsylvania); Ricardo Gomez-Carrera (World Inequality Lab); Susan W. Parker (University of Maryland); Petra E. Todd (University of Pennsylvania); Weilong Zhang (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | In the last two decades, a number of Latin American countries expanded preschool availability and made attendance compulsory. In 2002, Mexico launched a reform that mandated three years of preschool before entering primary school, gradually phasing in the requirement. Using nationwide longitudinal administrative educational data, household survey data, and a quasi-experimental regression-discontinuity approach, this paper investigates the medium and longer-term impacts of the mandate. Results show that the preschool mandate enhanced fifth- and sixth-grade math and Spanish scores, improved noncognitive skills, heightened student engagement, reduced failure rates, and led to greater schooling attainment for young adults nearly 20 years post-reform. |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:24-029 |
| By: | Kannika Thampanishvong; Nipon Paopongsakorn; Bhim Adhikari |
| Abstract: | Floods and drought are the extreme weather events that pose major concerns on rice farmers in Thailand, particularly those in the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB). To mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events on the rice production and their livelihoods, some of these farm households have undertaken some adaptation strategies, such as shifting crop calendar, changing rice varieties, etc. Using data from the survey of farm household in the CPRB, this study highlights the adaptation strategies adopted by farm households and analyzes the impacts of adaptation to extreme weather events on rice productivity using the endogenous switching model. Our results show that adaptation to floods that took place in CPRB increases the wet-season rice productivity. The unconditional impacts of adaptation on wet-season rice productivity are around 120 kilograms per rai (approximately 0.16 hectares). The treatment effect, which captures the counterfactual case whereby farm households who adapted instead chose not to adapt at the decision stage, shows that the impacts of adaptation on wet-season rice productivity is around 31 kilograms per rai, i.e. farm households who adapted to extreme weather events would have produced 31 kilograms less per rai if they did not adapt. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation; Extreme weather events; Chao Phraya River Basin of Thailand; Endogenous switching; Rice productivity |
| JEL: | Q12 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:221 |
| By: | Julius Berger |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between extreme weather conditions and the risk of flooding-induced harvest failure in Nigerian agriculture using a probit model. I use household-level survey and gridded weather data to exploit weather variation across time and space. Risk of harvest failure increases for agricultural households with more extreme weather conditions. The effect is especially pronounced for a subsample of households in high-risk areas. Overall, extreme weather conditions more than double the risk of flooding-induced harvest failure. Educational attainment acts as a resilience strategy by enabling individuals to shift into other economic sectors and actively choose a less risky location of residence. Internet access per se does not seem to have a significant impact. |
| Keywords: | Flooding Risk, Nigeria, Agriculture, Resilience Strategy, Education, Communication |
| JEL: | Q12 Q54 I25 D83 N57 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_412 |
| By: | Diogo G. C. Britto; Gianmarco Daniele; Marco Le Moglie; Paolo Pinotti; Breno Sampaio |
| Abstract: | We study the prevalence and effects of individuals with past criminal charges among candidates and elected politicians in Brazil. Individuals with past criminal charges are twice as likely to both run for office and be elected compared to other individuals. This pattern persists across political parties and government levels, even when controlling for a broad set of observable characteristics. Randomized anti-corruption audits reduce the share of mayors with criminal records, but only when conducted in election years. Using a regression discontinuity design focusing on close elections, we demonstrate that the election of mayors with criminal backgrounds leads to higher rates of underweight births and infant mortality. Additionally, there is an increase in political patronage, particularly in the health sector, which is consistent with the negative impacts on local public health outcomes. |
| Keywords: | politicians, crime, audits, policies, patronage |
| JEL: | K42 J45 P16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp24230 |