|
on Development |
| By: | Giordano Mion; Joana Silva |
| Abstract: | We examine how firms adjust their production and technology in response to exogenous trade shocks. We develop a model in which revenue TFP can be distinguished from quantity TFP, and where skill upgrading is explicitly embedded into the firm's technology choice. Within our framework, firms respond to export and import shocks by adjusting their trade-off between quantity and quality, as well as the skill composition of their workforce. Ultimately, these decisions impact firms' quantity and revenue TFP, marginal costs, prices, and markups. We quantify the model using detailed firm and product data from Brazil and show how export and import shocks, instrumented using exogenous changes in exchange rates, GDP, and tariffs, affect a wide array of firm margins. Our results indicate both skill and quality upgrading in response to export shocks, while import shocks foster technology upgrading and productivity improvements. |
| Keywords: | exports, imports, shocks, skill upgrading, quality, technology, quantity TFP, revenue TFP, markups |
| Date: | 2024–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2009&r= |
| By: | Bangyu He; Phil Johnston; Agustin Velasquez |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the catalytic impact of IMF lending to Low-Income Countries on Official Development Assistance (ODA) during 1990-2019. It disentangles the effect on the amounts of ODA on countries’ participation in IMF programs (“extensive margin”) and the size of the IMF-supported program (“intensive margin”). To address selection biases, we rely on the interaction of past IMF program participation and IMF liquidity as an instrument for program participation and employ the review of access limits as an instrument for the size of disbursements. We document that a one percentage point (pp) of GDP increase in IMF disbursements catalyzes additional ODA of 2.7 pp of GDP. In addition, we find that IMF disbursements catalyze ODA mostly from multilateral donors (1.3 pp of GDP) and to lesser extent from traditional bilateral donors (0.6 pp of GDP). Among multilateral donors, the strongest effect is on World Bank disbursements, followed by the EU. Finally, we document that catalytic effects on ODA have decreasing returns to large IMF disbursement amounts. |
| Keywords: | International Monetary Fund (IMF); catalysis; official development assistance (ODA) |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/134&r= |
| By: | Jorge Pérez Pérez; José G. Nuño-Ledesma |
| Abstract: | Between 2004 and 2018, the spread of wages in Mexico's private labor sector remained stable. Nonetheless, the underlying factors behind salary dispersion underwent significant shifts. To uncover these changes, we analyze an employer-employee dataset comprising the near-universe of Mexico's formal employment. We estimate log wage models and decompose earnings dispersions into worker, workplace and sorting components. At the national level, we find that sorting increased its importance over time. While worker-level factors were the main contributors to salary variability in the 2004-2008 period, workplace factors became as important as worker-level factors in the 2014-2018 time segment. The influence of workplace factors on wage dispersion correlates negatively with per capita GDP at the regional level. |
| Keywords: | Assortative matching;regional development;wage dispersion;workplace wage premia |
| JEL: | J21 J31 R23 O15 O54 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-06&r= |
| By: | Gideon Ndubuisi; Elvis Korku Avenyo; Rex Asiama |
| Abstract: | South Africa's current electricity crises have worsened, placing the country on an uncertain and turbulent economic trajectory. To identify the manufacturing sub-sectors that are most vulnerable to this crises, we use the input-output matrices for the period between 1993 and 2021 to develop a sub-sector energy vulnerability index. Second, we employ the self-constructed energy vulnerability index in a flexible empirical framework to examine the effect of the electricity crises on manufacturing sector jobs in the country. |
| Keywords: | Electricity, Crisis, Energy, Vulnerability, Manufacturing, Jobs |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-41&r= |
| By: | Ofori, Pamela E.; Ofori, Isaac K. |
| Abstract: | The surge in frontier technology adoption (FTR) in education, health, and labour markets cannot be overemphasised. Notwithstanding, rigorous empirical findings concerning their socioeconomic impacts in the Global South are hard to find. Accordingly, this study explores the impact of FTR on gender inequality in low-income, and middle- and high-income African countries. Second, this study investigates the moderating role of electricity access in the FTR-gender inequality nexus. Third, the study examines the threshold effect of electricity access in the FTR-gender inequality relationship. Compelling evidence, based on country-level data for 29 African countries from 2010-2020, reveals that FTR promotes gender equality in both low-income, and middle- and high-income African countries. However, this impact is striking in the middle- and high-income African countries. Further, the contingency analysis establishes that electricity access amplifies the effect of FTR on gender equality but only in middle- and high-income African countries. Additionally, the threshold analysis demonstrates that broadening electricity access coverage conditions FTR to further enhance gender equality. However, this positive impact eludes low-income African countries. We conclude that investments in broadening electricity access and the capacity of African countries in adopting, mastering, and adapting frontier technologies are critical for inclusive human development. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Agenda 2063; Frontier technology adoption; Gender Inequality; Inclusive human development |
| JEL: | J16 O3 O55 Q01 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121245&r= |
| By: | de Padua, David (Asian Development Bank); Lanzafame, Matteo (Asian Development Bank); Qureshi , Irfan (Asian Development Bank); Taniguchi, Kiyoshi (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Remittances are an important source of external financing in Pakistan, amounting to around 10% of gross domestic product in 2021. As such, an appropriate understanding of the key macroeconomic drivers of remittances has important policy implications. Combining a database of bilateral remittances between Pakistan and its main remittance-sending countries with monthly macroeconomic data over 2003–2021, we use a Bayesian vector autoregression model to understand the drivers of remittances to Pakistan. Specifically, we do so by estimating the impact of various structural shocks on remittance growth in Pakistan. We find that macroeconomic variables, including economic activity, inflation, equity markets, and interest rates—both in Pakistan and migrants’ host countries—play a significant role, and their contributions vary over time. |
| Keywords: | remittances; macroeconomics; Pakistan |
| JEL: | E70 F22 F24 |
| Date: | 2024–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0733&r= |
| By: | Ofori, Isaac K. |
| Abstract: | The proliferation of frontier technologies in the Global South has increased over the past decade. Despite this development, evidence-based policy recommendations regarding their socioeconomic impacts within the context of Africa are scarce. This study addresses this gap by employing macro data from 39 African countries to investigate the impact of frontier technology adoption (FTR) on income inequality. Additionally, the study explores whether democracy serves as a moderator of FTR, influencing a more equitable income distribution. Furthermore, this study assesses the inequality impacts of FTR across various policy thresholds of democracy. Results from the dynamic system GMM estimator reveal that: (i) FTR increases income inequality, (ii) democracy, particularly electoral and participatory democracy, mitigates income inequality, and (iii) FTR reduces income inequality only at a higher threshold of democracy (0.5 or better). This leads to the conclusion that, without inclusive democracy, FTR may impede Africa's social progress agenda by widening the income disparity gap. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Frontier Technology Readiness; Democracy; Income Inequality. |
| JEL: | I3 O31 O33 O55 Q01 |
| Date: | 2024–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121243&r= |