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on Development |
| By: | Steven Brakman; Tristan Kohl; Charles van Marrewijk |
| Abstract: | Population forecasts indicate that the world is facing massive demographic changes during the 21st century. This does not only involve the development of the total global population, but (more importantly) will also affect the population and age distribution across countries in a fundamental way. In this paper we focus on the income consequences of these changes for the global income distribution. Key in this respect are changes in the so-called demographic dividend associated with the share of the working-age population in the total population. We link the predicted long-run changes of the demographic dividend to income projections. Our findings are as follows. First, show that historically the impact of demography on economic growth indicates that a one per cent higher demographic dividend results in about 0.22 percentage points higher growth rate. Second, we use UN population projections on population size and the associated age-distribution to predict income changes for the remainder of this century. Third, we illustrate how the center of income gravity shifts from advanced economies, like Europe and North America, towards developing and emerging economies, like South Asia and Africa. This potentially has consequences for the current global economic powers, that will see their influence on world affairs decline. |
| Keywords: | demography, income |
| JEL: | F43 J11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11108&r= |
| By: | Sara Balestri (Dipartimento di Economia Internazionale, delle Istituzioni e dello Sviluppo, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Raul Caruso (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & Centro Studi Economia Applicata (CSEA), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - Catholic University ‘Our Lady of Good Counsel’, Tirana, European Center of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia - both regions being predominantly characterized by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities - spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence. |
| Keywords: | communal violence, vulnerability, climate change, conflicts, Africa, Asia |
| JEL: | D74 O13 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0036&r= |
| By: | Strupat, Christoph; Rukundo, Emmanuel Nshakira; Reichert, Arndt R. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of a nationwide shock-responsive social cash transfer scheme during an aggregate shock, with a focus on highly risk susceptible informal sector households in Kenya. Leveraging primary in-person survey data in a doubly robust difference-in-differences framework, we find that households receiving shock-responsive cash transfers were less likely to encounter income loss, poverty, and food scarcity compared to households not receiving them. The scheme also reduced the likelihood of engaging in costly risk coping such as selling productive assets. When comparing different pillars of the scheme with varying degrees of shock-responsiveness, we observe that the impacts were statistically significant only when payment cycles were pooled and the transfers were vertically scaled. The study adds to the global policy discussion on developing effective shock-responsive interventions, underscoring the merits of (adapted) social cash transfers during crises. |
| Abstract: | In dieser Studie werden die Auswirkungen eines landesweiten, schockabhängigen Sozialgeldtransfersystems während eines aggregierten Schocks untersucht, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf stark risikoanfälligen Haushalten des informellen Sektors in Kenia liegt, Auf der Grundlage von primären persönlichen Umfragedaten in einem doppelt robusten Differenz-in-Differenzen-Rahmen stellen wir fest, dass Haushalte, die auf Schocks reagierende Bargeldtransfers erhalten, im Vergleich zu Haushalten, die keine Transfers erhalten, seltener von Einkommensverlusten, Armut und Nahrungsmittelknappheit betroffen waren, Das Programm verringerte auch die Wahrscheinlichkeit, kostspielige Risikobewältigungsmaßnahmen wie den Verkauf von Produktionsanlagen zu ergreifen, Beim Vergleich verschiedener Säulen des Programms mit unterschiedlichem Grad an Schockempfindlichkeit stellen wir fest, dass die Auswirkungen nur dann statistisch signifikant waren, wenn die Zahlungszyklen zusammengefasst und die Transfers vertikal gestaffelt waren, Die Studie trägt zur weltweiten politischen Diskussion über die Entwicklung wirksamer, auf Schocks reagierender Interventionen bei und unterstreicht die Vorzüge von (angepassten) Sozialgeldtransfers in Krisenzeiten, |
| Keywords: | Cash transfers, shock-responsiveness, COVID-19, Kenya |
| JEL: | I13 I15 I18 J01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:295227&r= |
| By: | Chrimes, Tommy; Gootjes, Bram; Kose, Ayhan; Wheeler, Collette |
| Abstract: | The shock of the pandemic and subsequent overlapping crises has led to a reversal in development by exacerbating the challenges facing the most vulnerable 75 economies eligible for concessional loans and grants from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA). Over 2020-24, per capita incomes in half of IDA countries—the largest share since the start of this century—have been growing more slowly than those of wealthy economies. One out of three IDA countries is poorer than it was on the eve of the pandemic. Poverty remains stubbornly high, hunger has surged, and, amid fiscal constraints and rising investment needs, the development outlook could take an even bleaker turn—especially if weak growth prospects persist. IDA countries have several important demographic and resource advantages that could—if leveraged effectively—help close development gaps. Reaping the benefits of their advantages and meeting investment needs will require them to undertake comprehensive policy measures to bolster fiscal and monetary frameworks, enhance human capital development, and improve the quality of institutions. These policies should be complemented with significant and consistent international financial support as well as strong cooperation on global policy issues. |
| Keywords: | International Development Association; IDA; stagnation; convergence; development gap |
| JEL: | E6 F00 I00 J11 O1 Q00 |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120860&r= |
| By: | Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo J. (World Bank); Puerta-Cuartas, Alejandro (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Ramos, Andrey (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of severe wildfire events on Bolivia's poverty and labor market outcomes. We use a panel from 2005 to 2020 utilizing NASA's MODIS Collection-6 MCD64A1 burned area product and household surveys. To attain survey representativeness at a lower geographical level, we aggregate neighboring municipalities using the max-p-region algorithm. Using the Interactive Fixed Effects Counterfactual Estimator, we estimate the causal effects of severe wildfire events on poverty, household per-capita income, and the agricultural sector. We find a significant short-term increase in poverty explained by a temporary decline in household per capita and, specifically, agricultural labor income. |
| Keywords: | poverty, counterfactual estimators, natural disasters |
| JEL: | I32 Q54 J43 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16988&r= |
| By: | Hany Abdel-Latif; Mr. Antonio David; Rasmané Ouedraogo; Markus Specht |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the macroeconomic spillover effects of conflict within sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using a new Conflict Spillover Index (CSI), which accounts for conflict intensity and distance from conflict-affected countries. Our findings reveal an escalation in conflict spillovers across SSA since 2011, marked by considerable cross-country heterogeneity. Impulse responses show that conflict spillovers shocks significantly and persistently hinder economic growth, while concurrently elevating inflation in the “home” country. Conflict spillover shocks are also associated with increases in (current) government spending and government debt. Furthermore, the international trade transmission channel of spillovers operates mostly through increased imports, while negative effects on FDI winddown over time. Moreover, state-dependent impulse responses underscore the importance of good governance, fiscal space, and foreign aid in attenuating the adverse macroeconomic spillover effects of conflict. The detrimental impact of conflict on output is more severe in environments with weaker governance and limited fiscal space. Government expenditures tend to rise following a spillover shock in contexts of high governmental effectiveness, possibly reflecting the use of policy buffers to respond to shocks. In that context, the papers shed light on important factors to promote resilience in SSA economies. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Spillovers; Conflict; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/100&r= |
| By: | Rose, Julian; Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Hodel, Hanna; Sall, Medoune; Bensch, Gunther |
| Abstract: | Claims for removing fossil fuel subsidies in the Global South are based on climate and equity concerns, but they can be at odds with improving access to Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a clean cooking fuel. We examine the case of urban Senegal where LPG usage rates were among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa in the late 2000s. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data, we show that LPG usage declined sharply following the removal of subsidies in 2009. Counterintuitively, the decline was not reversed when falling world market prices led to a local price decrease. To explore this puzzle, we use detailed cooking data from surveys we conducted in 2009 and 2019. We find that households change to charcoal after the subsidy removal, but they increasingly use newly promoted energy-efficient charcoal stoves. These stoves make charcoal cooking cheaper and hence the switch back to LPG less attractive. Our results underscore that the energy transition of the poor is highly price responsive - an important insight not only for the debate about fossil fuel subsidies but also carbon taxation. |
| Abstract: | Die Forderungen nach einer Abschaffung der Subventionen für fossile Brennstoffe im globalen Süden basieren auf Klima- und Gerechtigkeitsaspekten, können jedoch im Widerspruch zu einem verbesserten Zugang zu Flüssiggas (LPG) als sauberem Kochbrennstoff stehen. Wir untersuchen den Fall des urbanen Senegal, wo die LPG-Nutzungsraten in den späten 2000er Jahren zu den höchsten in Subsahara-Afrika gehörten. Anhand von Daten aus der Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) zeigen wir, dass die LPG-Nutzung nach der Abschaffung der Subventionen im Jahr 2009 drastisch zurückging. Interessanterweise führten fallenden Weltmarktpreise und einer damit einhergehenden lokalen Preissenkung nicht zu einer Rückkehr zum vorherigen Nutzungsniveau. Um diese Entwicklung zu untersuchen, verwenden wir detaillierte Kochdaten aus Umfragen, die wir 2009 und 2019 durchgeführt haben. Wir stellen fest, dass die Haushalte nach der Abschaffung der Subvention auf Holzkohle umsteigen, aber zunehmend neu geförderte energieeffiziente Holzkohleherde verwenden. Diese Öfen machen das Kochen mit Holzkohle billiger und damit den Wechsel zurück zu Flüssiggas weniger attraktiv. Unsere Ergebnisse unterstreichen, dass die Energiewende der Armen in hohem Maße preisabhängig ist - eine wichtige Erkenntnis nicht nur für die Debatte über Subventionen für fossile Brennstoffe, sondern auch für die Besteuerung von Kohlenstoff. |
| Keywords: | Energy subsidies, air pollution, energy transition, clean cooking, climate policy |
| JEL: | O13 Q41 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:295229&r= |
| By: | Désiré Kanga; Mr. Boileau Loko; Gomez Agou; Mr. Kangni R Kpodar |
| Abstract: | We examine push and pull factors, including demographic, geography, culture, economic and human development, politics and climate, and uncover the key determinants shaping migration patterns within Africa. Our findings emphasize the significance of political (instability, ethnic tensions) and socio-demographic (human development, common language, population size and structure) factors, climate shocks, along with economic motivations, in driving intra-African migration. Understanding these multifaceted factors is vital for policymakers in formulating effective strategies to leverage human capital mobility to promote sustainable development in the region. |
| Keywords: | Migration; climate shocks; human development; political risk |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/097&r= |
| By: | Mr. Kalin I Tintchev; Laura Jaramillo |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive drought measure and a panel autoregressive distributed lag model, the paper finds that worsening drought conditions can result in long-term scarring of real GDP per capita growth and affect long-term price stability in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS), more so than in other countries, leaving them further behind. Lower crop productivity and slower investment are key channels through which drought impacts economic growth in FCS. In a high emissions scenario, drought conditions will cut 0.4 percentage points of FCS’ growth of real GDP per capita every year over the next 40 years and increase average inflation by 2 percentage points. Drought will also increase hunger in FCS, from alreay high levels. The confluence of lower food production and higher prices in a high emissions scenario would push 50 million more people in FCS into hunger. The macroeconomic effects of drought in FCS countries are amplified by their low copying capacity due to high public debt, low social spending, insufficient trade openness, high water insecurity, and weak governance. |
| Keywords: | climate change; long-term growth and inflation; climate policy |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/106&r= |
| By: | Pascaline Dupas; Seema Jayachandran; Adriana Lleras-Muney; Pauline Rossi |
| Abstract: | We conducted a randomized trial among 14, 545 households in rural Burkina Faso to test the oft-cited hypothesis that limited access to contraception is an important driver of high fertility rates in West Africa. We do not find support for this hypothesis. Women who were given free access to medical contraception for three years did not have lower birth rates; we can reject even modest effects. We cross-randomized additional interventions to address possible inefficiencies leading to low demand for free contraception, specifically misperceptions about the child mortality rate, limited exposure to opposing views about family size and contraception, and social pressure. Free contraception did not influence fertility even in combination with these other interventions. |
| JEL: | J13 J18 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32427&r= |
| By: | Octavio Bertín (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CEFIP-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Thomas García (CEFIP-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Francisco Pizzi (CEFIP-IIE-FCE-UNLP & UC Davis (California)); Alberto Porto (CEFIP-IIE-FCE-UNLP & ANCE); Julian Puig (CEFIP-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Jorge Puig (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CEFIP-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | We review the distributional incidence of residential energy subsidies using the attractive case of Argentina, a developing country that has massively subsidized electricity in recent decades. Using multiple data sources, we explore two central dimensions, usually omitted in previous research. On the one hand, we focus on geography given that previous studies mostly focus on the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (i.e., AMBA), the most populated region in the country. However, Argentina’s territorial heterogeneity demands further analysis, given that the stage of electricity distribution introduces heterogeneities between jurisdictions. On the other hand, we focus on the subsidies’ financing given that previous studies do not focus on the net incidence. Our results indicate that: regional disparities in the costs of electricity distribution and the prices set by the distribution companies are key drivers of the distributional incidence. Also omitting subsidies’ financing may lead to overestimating the belief about their redistributive effect. |
| JEL: | H22 D31 D78 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0331&r= |