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on Development |
| By: | Stampini, Marco; Medellín, Nadin; Ibarrarán, Pablo |
| Abstract: | We assess the non-contributory cash transfer systems in 17 Latin American and Caribbean countries to identify factors that keep them from reducing poverty and inequality. To perform this assessment, we analyze three dimensions of size (number of beneficiaries, size of transfer per beneficiary, and size of total budget) and three dimensions of targeting (coverage, leakage, and quality of demographic targeting). We identify 67 programs, which fall into three broad categories: conditional cash transfers, non-contributory pensions, and other transfers. We use an international poverty line of 6.85 dollars PPP per day (similar to the average national poverty line of upper middle-income countries) and adjust survey weights to correct for the fact that household survey data often underestimates the official number of transfer beneficiaries compared to administrative sources. We show that two key factors limit the effect of cash transfer programs on poverty and inequality: the small size of their transfers and their historic under-coverage of the population living in poverty. Transfers represent approximately 33% of the poverty gap. Additionally, only 55% of the population in poverty benefits from these programs. Forty-one percent of people living in households that receive at least one non-contributory transfer are above the poverty line. Children and Indigenous people are underrepresented, relative to their poverty rate, in the rosters of beneficiaries. Brazil, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, and Uruguay consistently earn the highest scores across the assessment categories. Our policy recommendations include: (i) intensifying efforts to increase coverage among the poor, using modern poverty mapping techniques along with active, on-the-ground searches and (ii) recertifying eligibility for transfer programs more frequently by using highly interoperable administrative data and social registries. Both efforts are needed to create more efficient income protection systems that address both structural and transient poverty. |
| Keywords: | cash transfer programs;Conditional cash transfers;Non-contributory pensions;coverage;leakage;targeting;Social protection;Latin America and the Caribbean |
| JEL: | I38 H53 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13191&r=dev |
| By: | Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Neidhöfer, Guido |
| Abstract: | How strong is the transmission of socio-economic status across generations in Latin America? To answer this question, we first review the empirical literature on intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity for the region, summarizing results for both income and educational outcomes. We find that, whereas the income mobility literature is hampered by a paucity of representative datasets containing linked information on parents and children, the inequality of opportunity approach which relies on other inherited and pre-determined circumstance variables has suffered from arbitrariness in the choice of population partitions. Two new data-driven approaches one aligned with the ex-ante and the other with the ex-post conception of inequality of opportunity are introduced to address this shortcoming. They yield a set of new inequality of opportunity estimates for twenty-seven surveys covering nine Latin American countries over various years between 2000 and 2015. In most cases, more than half of the current generations inequality is inherited from the past with a range between 44% and 63%. We argue that on balance, given the parsimony of the population partitions, these are still likely to be underestimates. |
| Keywords: | Equality of Opportunity;Intergenerational mobility;Latin America |
| JEL: | D31 I39 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13155&r=dev |
| By: | Alvaredo, Facundo; Bourguignon, François; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Lustig, Nora |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a comprehensive compilation of quantile shares and inequality measures for 34 countries, including over 5, 600 estimated Gini coefficient, we review the measurement of income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean over the last seven decades. Although the evidence from the first quarter century roughly until the 1970s is too fragmentary and difficult to compare, clearer patterns emerge for last fifty years. The central feature of these patterns is a broad inverted U curve, with inequality rising in most countries prior to the 1990s, and falling during the early 21st Century, at least until the mid-2010s, when trends appear to diverge across countries. This broad pattern is modified by country specificities, with considerable variation in timing and magnitude. Whereas this broad picture emerges for income inequality dynamics, there is much more uncertainty about the exact levels of inequality in the region. The uncertainty arises from the disparity in estimates for the same country/year combinations, depending on whether they come from household surveys exclusively; from some combination of surveys and administrative tax data; and on whether they attempt to scale income aggregates to achieve consistency with National Accounts estimates. Since no single method is fully convincing at present, we are left with (often wide) ranges, or bands, of inequality as our best summaries of inequality levels. Reassuringly, however, the dynamic patterns are generally robust across the bands. |
| Keywords: | Inequality;Equality;measurement;Household Survey;Latin America and the Caribbean;Equality Indicator;Income Equality;taxation;National Account |
| JEL: | D31 D63 O54 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13157&r=dev |
| By: | Aggarwal, Khushboo (Christ University); Barua, Rashmi (Jawaharlal Nehru University); Vidal-Fernandez, Marian (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of groundwater contamination on educational outcomes in India. Our study leverages variations in the geographical coverage and timing of construction of safe government piped water schemes to identify the effects of exposure to contaminants. Using self-collected survey data from public schools in Assam, one of the most groundwater-contaminated regions in India, we find that prolonged exposure to unsafe groundwater is associated with increased school absenteeism, grade retention, and decreased test scores and Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA). To complement our findings and to study the effect of one such contaminant, arsenic, we use a large nationally representative household survey. Using variations in soil textures across districts as an instrument for arsenic concentration levels we find that exposure to arsenic beyond safe threshold levels is negatively associated with school attendance. |
| Keywords: | water contamination, education, India |
| JEL: | I15 I25 F63 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16863&r=dev |
| By: | Piero Ronzani (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany); Wolfgang Stojetz (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany); Carlo Azzarri (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA); Gianluigi Nico (The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA); Erdgin Mane (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy); Tilman Brück (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany, Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops, Großbeeren, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides empirical microlevel evidence on the gendered impacts of armed conflict on economic activity in agriculture and other sectors, combining large-N sex-disaggregated survey data with temporally and spatially disaggregated conflict event data from 29 African countries. We find that local conflict exposure is only weakly related to labour-force participation, but strongly reduces the total number of hours worked and increases engagement in the agricultural sector. These net impacts exist for both men and women. However, the reduction in hours worked is significantly greater among men, while the increase in agricultural activity is significantly greater among women. In the longer term, impacts of conflict on employment two years later are stronger when no more conflict ensues than if further conflict occurs, challenging the widespread idea of one-off conflict shocks fading away over time and suggesting that labour markets adapt to and absorb lasting conflict situations. Different types of conflict event have qualitatively similar impacts, which are strongest for explosions, such as from air strikes or landmines. Overall, our findings underline that armed conflict entails structural economic, social and institutional change, which creates complex, gendered impacts on economic activity. |
| Keywords: | conflict shocks, gender, agrifood systems, Africa, labor market adaptation, employment |
| JEL: | D74 J16 O10 O13 O18 Q10 Q34 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:409&r=dev |
| By: | GIBSON, John; ZHANG, Xiaoxuan; PARK, Albert; YI, Jiang; XI, Li |
| Abstract: | It is difficult and expensive to measure rural economic activity and poverty in developing countries. The usual survey-based approach is less informative than often realized due to combined effects of the clustered samples dictated by survey logistics and the spatial autocorrelation in rural livelihoods. Administrative data, like sub-national GDP for lower level spatial units, are often unavailable and the informality and seasonality of many rural activities raises doubts about accuracy of such measures. A recent literature argues that high-resolution satellite imagery can overcome these barriers to the measurement of rural economic activity and rural living standards and poverty. Potential advantages of satellite data include greater comparability between countries irrespective of their varying levels of statistical capacity, cheaper and more timely data availability, and the possibility of extending estimates to spatial units below the level at which GDP data or survey data are reported. While there are many types of remote sensing data, economists have particularly seized upon satellite-detected nighttime lights (NTL) as a proxy for local economic activity. Yet there are growing doubts about the universal usefulness of this proxy, with recent evidence suggesting that NTL data are a poor proxy in low-density rural areas of developing countries. This study examines performance in predicting rural sector economic activity and poverty in China with different types of satellite-detected NTL data that come from three generations of sensors of varying resolution. We include the most popular NTL source in economics, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program data, whose resolution is, at best, 2.7 km, two data sources from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi/NPP satellite with spatial resolution of 0.74 km, and data from the Luojia-01 satellite that is even more spatially precise, with resolution of 0.13 km. The sensors also vary in ability to detect feeble light and in the time of night that they observe the earth. With this variation we can ascertain whether better sensors lead to better predictions. We supplement this statistical assessment with a set of ground-truthing exercises. Overall, our study may help to inform decisions about future data directions for studying rural economic activity and poverty in developing countries. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2023-08&r=dev |
| By: | Acevedo, Ivonne; Castellani, Francesca; Lopez de la Cerda, Carlos; Lotti, Giulia; Székely, Miguel |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between climate change-induced weather emergencies and labor market outcomes in Mexico from 2016 to 2020. Using panel data and a two-way fixed effects estimation, the analysis focuses on storms, floods, wildfires, and landslides. The results show that storms can have significant negative associations with labor market outcomes. When living in municipalities affected by storms individuals experience 3.5% lower wages. Also, storms are associated to a decrease in weekly working hours, while the rest of weather-related emergencies do not show significant effects. Furthermore, the probability of employment is negatively and significantly affected by storms, resulting in a 1 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of being employed. |
| Keywords: | climate change;Weather emergencies;Labor Market Outcomes;Mexico;Storms;floods |
| JEL: | J21 J30 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13131&r=dev |
| By: | Faguet, Jean-Paul; Matajira, Camilo; Sánchez, Fabio |
| Abstract: | The Spanish encomienda, a colonial forced-labour institution that lasted three centuries, killed many indigenous people and caused others to flee into nomadism. What were its long-term effects? We digitize a great deal of historical data from the mid-1500s onwards and reconstruct the Spanish conquerors’ route through Colombia using detailed topographical features to calculate their least-cost path. We show that Colombian municipalities with encomiendas in 1560 enjoy better outcomes today across multiple dimensions of development than those without: higher municipal GDP per capita, tax receipts, and educational attainment; lower infant mortality, poverty, and unsatisfied basic needs; larger populations; and superior fiscal performance and bureaucratic efficiency, but also higher inequality. Why? Two mediation exercises using data on local institutions, populations and racial composition in 1794 shows that encomiendas affected development primarily by helping build the local state. Deep historical evidence fleshes out how encomenderos founded local institutions early on in the places they settled. Places lacking encomiendas also lacked local states for 3-4 centuries. Local institutions mobilized public investment in ways that doubtless suited encomenderos, but, over time, spurred greater economic and human development. |
| Keywords: | Encomienda; Colombia; development; colonialism; extraction; state capacity; forced labour; institutions |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122257&r=dev |
| By: | Cavallo, Eduardo A.; Hernández, Juan; González Jaramillo, María José; Powell, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Despite an initial reversal of capital inflows, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in relatively mild impacts on net capital flows to Emerging and Developing Economies. In contrast to previous crises, gross capital inflows offset residents' outflows, resulting in relatively stable net capital flows and modest current account adjustments. Liquid international markets, access to official resources, and sound fundamentals allowed for capital inflows, thus preventing the additional costs of widespread Sudden Stops during the pandemic. Still, we show a relatively simple model predicted Sudden Stops in net flows reasonably well in countries with weaker fundamentals. |
| Keywords: | Sudden stops;Capital flows;balance of payments;Capital Account;COVID-19;Emerging and Developing Economies |
| JEL: | F30 F32 F40 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13133&r=dev |
| By: | Purushotham, Anjali; Steinhübel, Linda |
| Abstract: | With growing cities and improving infrastructure all over the world, smallholder farms not only gain better access to agricultural markets but also off-farm labor markets. As a result, the opportunity cost of farm labor increases, and households’ livelihood portfolios often become more complex, i.e., a share of the household labor is allocated towards off-farm activities. While such diversification is often beneficial for household incomes, the consequences for household nutrition are less clear. Especially, empirical evidence considering the interaction of different employment choices and pathways through which livelihood diversification affects nutrition is still scarce. To address this gap, we first develop a conceptual framework that considers subsistence agricultural production, commercialized agricultural operations, off-farm employment, and the role of market access in explaining household nutrition. Then, we use panel data from the rural-urban interface (RUI) of Bangalore in South India and apply a fixed-effects regression framework to analyze how employment choices affect household consumption of calories, protein, fat, saturated fat, carbohydrates, total sugar, and sodium. We also explore whether the observed effect patterns are driven by income or lifestyle changes associated with livelihood diversification. Our analysis shows that households in the RUI of Bangalore on average consume excess quantities of nutrients considered, indicating the onset of dietary transition that accompanies urbanization. Commercialized agriculture and/or off-farm employment lead to a reduction in the excess consumption of nutrients. This effect is however linked to lifestyle changes, while potential income gains further increase excess consumption. Our analysis also shows that the observed reductions in nutrient consumption through lifestyle changes vary depending on a household’s location in the RUI, with households located close to Bangalore displaying stronger improvements. All in all, livelihood diversification is associated with an improvement in the household nutrient consumption status mediated by lifestyle rather than income factors associated with improved market access. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:340930&r=dev |
| By: | Dincecco, Mark (University of Michigan); Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Menon, Anil (University of California, Merced) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between exposure to historical conflict involving heavy weaponry and male-favoring gender norms. We argue that the physical nature of such conflict produced cultural norms favoring males and male offspring. We focus on spatial variation in gender norms across India, a dynamic developing economy in which gender inequality persists. We show robust evidence that areas with high exposure to pre-colonial conflict are significantly more likely to exhibit male-favoring gender norms as measured by male-biased sex ratios and crimes against women. We document how conflict-related gender norms have been transmitted over time via male-favoring folkloric traditions, the gender identity of temple gods, and male-biased marriage practices, and have been transmitted across space by migrants originally from areas with high conflict exposure. |
| Keywords: | War, Gender Norms, Cultural Beliefs, Development, India, History JEL Classification: J16, N45, 011, P46, Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:704&r=dev |
| By: | Naveen Kumar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Dibyendu Maiti (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term impact of climate change on Indian economic growth, both at aggregate and dis-aggregated levels across regions and sectors. A simple Ramsey model is built to show that the resource abundance, climatic exposure, and state capacity affecting the rate of resource mobilisation for productivity and efficiency improvement determine regional growth. A crosssectional augmented auto-regressive distributed lag model (CS-ARDL), addressing endogeneity, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence with stochastic trends, employed in 29 major states from 1980 to 2019, confirms a significant and negative impact of temperature rise on total factor productivity and the resultant economic growth. On average, one Celcius degree of temperature rise has depressed economic growth by approximately 3.89%, with substantial variations across states, sectors, and income groups. The variation in labour relations, industrialisation level, forest cover, and debts across the states affecting the ecological damage and efficiency changes in labour and capital differentially has been found responsible for the variation in TFP and the resultant growth. Our estimated coefficients combined with the projected temperature reveal that poorer and less developed states are expected to be more vulnerable than others because of their dependence on agriculture and ecological resources. The GSDP growth is projected to decrease by a range of 5.25% to 24.51% during 2020 to 2100 from the Stringent Mitigation scenario (SSP1-2.6) to the Business-as-Usual scenario (SSP5-8.5). JEL Code: O44, Q54, Q51 |
| Keywords: | climate change, economic growth, India, panel data, adaptation |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:345&r=dev |
| By: | Tsendsuren Batsuuri; Shan He; Ruofei Hu; Jonathan Leslie; Flora Lutz |
| Abstract: | This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical. |
| Keywords: | Early warning systems; IMF Lending; Machine Learning |
| Date: | 2024–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/054&r=dev |
| By: | Leo Dörr (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | : This paper provides new empirical findings on the aid–growth relation. We find evidence for considerable asymmetry in the aid–growth relation; i.e., aid cuts have a large negative impact on economic activity, while increasing aid may be ineffective in promoting growth. Development aid thus largely replaces rather than complements domestic resources. We innovate by combining dynamic generalized method of moments techniques with asymmetric effect analysis. Unlike previous studies in this area, our empirical design allows us to account for potential weak instrument problems and endogeneity concerns when estimating the effects of aid upturns and downturns separately. |
| Date: | 2024–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:076&r=dev |