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on Development |
| By: | Steven Radil; Olivier J. Walther |
| Abstract: | Several states in West Africa have experienced significant episodes of political violence since the early 2010s. These have included civil wars, religiously motivated terrorism, separatist insurgencies, military coups and communal strife, each of which have local, national and transnational dimensions. Intended to help guide responses to the region’s political challenges, the Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC/OECD) created an interactive, spatial tool for policy makers in 2019, the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi). The SCDi monitors political violence at subnational scales. It combines different quantitative dimensions of conflict into a mappable tool that describes the circumstances in each location. The latest enhancement to the SCDi brings two new features to aid the identification of local conflict trends. First, the tool now identifies regions that are newly entering into or exiting from conflict. This allows a more detailed picture of how the geography of conflict is spreading or contracting within and across national borders. Second, the tool now characterises the current conditions in a location as either worsening or improving, based on past conditions at the same location. The SCDi is implemented in SWAC’s new Mapping Territorial Transformations in Africa (MAPTA) platform. |
| Keywords: | armed conflict, North Africa, political violence, spatial analysis, Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator, West Africa |
| JEL: | D74 D85 H56 N47 |
| Date: | 2024–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:swacaa:42-en&r=dev |
| By: | Allen IV, James |
| Abstract: | Across sub-Saharan Africa, countries with a greater percentage of overlapping days in their school and farming calendars also have lower primary school survival rates. In theory, greater overlap between the school and farming calendars should indeed reduce schooling investments, and farm-based child labor too, as it constrains the time allocation opportunity set for both productive activities. I causally identify such effects by leveraging a four-month shift to the school calendar in Malawi that exogenously changed the number of days that the school calendar overlapped with specific crop calendars, which differentially affected communities based on their pre-policy crop allotments. Using panel data for school-aged children, I find that a 10-day increase in school calendar overlap during peak farming periods significantly decreases school advancement by 0.34 grades (one lost grade for every three children) and the share of children engaged in peak-period household farming by 11 percentage points after four years. Secondary analyses reveal stronger negative schooling impacts for girls and poorer households driven by overlap with the labor-intensive planting period. A policy simulation illustrates that adapting the school calendar to minimize overlap with peak farming periods is a highly cost-effective educational intervention to increase school participation by better accommodating farm labor demand. |
| Keywords: | education; child labour; households; crop production |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2235&r=dev |
| By: | Fernando M. Aragon; Diego Restuccia; Juan Pablo Rud |
| Abstract: | We examine empirically whether the level of data aggregation affects the assessment of misallocation in agriculture. Using data from Ugandan farmers, we document a substantial discrepancy between misallocation measures calculated at the plot and at the farm levels. Estimates of misallocation at the plot level are much higher than those estimated with the same data but aggregated at the farm level. Even after accounting for measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity, estimates of misallocation at the plot level are extremely high, with nationwide agricultural productivity gains of 562%. Furthermore, we find suggestive evidence that granular data may be more susceptible to measurement error in survey data and that data aggregation can attenuate the relative magnitude of measurement error in misallocation measures. Our findings suggest caution in generalizing insights on measurement error and misallocation from plot-level analysis to those at the farm level. |
| Keywords: | misallocation, agriculture, measurement error, distortions. |
| JEL: | O4 O13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-769&r=dev |
| By: | Olivier J. Walther; David Russell |
| Abstract: | African armed conflicts involve a myriad of state forces, rebel groups and extremist organisations bound by rapidly changing alliances and rivalries. Organisations that were allies one day can fight each other the next and co-operate later still. The objective of this note is to update the pioneer work on conflict networks conducted by the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC) in the region by using a formal approach to networks known as dynamic social network analysis. Leveraging a dataset of 3 800 actors and 60 000 violent events from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) from 1997-2023, the note monitors how the co-operative and rivalrous ties between violent actors have changed over time, both at the regional and local levels. The growing number of belligerents, increasing density of rivalrous relationships and growing polarisation of the conflict networks observed in this note are extremely worrying for the future of the region. Not only do they make peaceful efforts more difficult than ever, but they also contribute to increasing the number of potential victims among the civilian population. |
| Keywords: | conflict, dynamic social network analysis, networks, North Africa, political violence, Sahel, West Africa |
| JEL: | D74 D85 H56 N47 |
| Date: | 2024–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:swacaa:41-en&r=dev |
| By: | Fergusson, Leopoldo; Robinson, James; Torres, Santiago |
| Abstract: | We investigate how economic inequality can persist in Latin America in the context of radical falls in political inequality in the last decades. Using data from Colombia, we focus on a critical facet of democratization - the entry of new politicians. We show that initial levels of inequality play a significant role in determining the impact of political entry on local institutions, policy, and development outcomes, which can impact future inequality. A vicious circle emerges whereby policies that reduce inequality are less likely to be adopted and implemented in places with relatively high inequality. We present evidence that this is caused both by the capture of new politicians and barriers to institution and state capacity building, and also by the fact that politicians committed to redistribution are less likely to win in relatively unequal places. Our results, therefore, help to reconcile the persistence of economic inequality with the new political context. |
| Keywords: | political entry;public policy;Development |
| JEL: | D72 D78 H5 H4 P0 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13410&r=dev |
| By: | Shekhar Aiyar (Johns Hopkins SAIS, Bruegel and NCAER); Manasa Patnam (International Monetary Fund) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether IMF lending is associated with increases in outflows to offshore financial centers (OFCs), known for bank secrecy and asset protection, relative to other international destinations. Using quarterly data from the BIS on bilateral bank deposits, we are unable to detect any positive and statistically significant effect of IMF loan disbursements on bank deposits in OFCs. The result holds even after restricting the sample to the duration of the IMF program, where disbursement quarters and non-disbursement quarters should be subject to similar degrees of macroeconomic stress. It is also robust to using the scheduled tranche of disbursements as an instrument for actual disbursements. While the effects vary by the type and conditionality of the IMF program, as well as the amount of lending, none of the effects are found to be positive and statistically significant. We also estimate whether the recent surge in emergency lending, during the Covid-19 crisis, is associated with an increase in outflows to OFCsbut find no evidence to support this. |
| Keywords: | Financial Flows, Aid, Corruption, Governance. |
| JEL: | D73 F35 P16 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:159&r=dev |
| By: | Costa, Francisco J M (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance); Szerman, Dimitri; Assunção, Juliano |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impacts of ten recently built hydroelectric power plants in the Brazilian Amazon on deforestation. Using the inventory of all sites with hydropower potential yet undeveloped, we apply the synthetic control method to estimate the causal impact of each power plant on forest loss. Overall, the construction of the ten plants contributed to 21 percent of the observed forest loss within a 50-kilometer radius of the construction site. Notably, this impact is solely attributed to four plants. In at least three of these plants, construction licenses were granted despite technical recommendations against them. In contrast, the remaining plants, which received technical clearance from the environmental agency, have negligible effects. These findings highlight the effectiveness of robust environmental regulations and underscore their vulnerability to high-level political interference. |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6y7vk&r=dev |
| By: | Faguet, Jean-Paul (London School of Economics); Matajira, Camilo (Independent); Sanchez Torres, Fabio (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | The Spanish encomienda, a colonial forced-labour institution that lasted three centuries, killed many indigenous people and caused others to flee into nomadism. What were its long-term effects? We digitize a great deal of historical data from the mid-1500s onwards and reconstruct the Spanish conquerors’ route through Colombia using detailed topographical features to calculate their least-cost path. We show that Colombian municipalities with encomiendas in 1560 enjoy better outcomes today across multiple dimensions of development than those without: higher municipal GDP per capita, tax receipts, and educational attainment; lower infant mortality, poverty, and unsatisfied basic needs; larger populations; and superior fiscal performance and bureaucratic efficiency, but also higher inequality. Why? Two mediation exercises using data on local institutions, populations and racial composition in 1794 shows that encomiendas affected development primarily by helping build the local state. Deep historical evidence fleshes out how encomenderos founded local institutions early on in the places they settled. Places lacking encomiendas also lacked local states for 3-4 centuries. Local institutions mobilized public investment in ways that doubtless suited encomenderos, but, over time, spurred greater economic and human development. |
| Keywords: | Encomienda; institutions; forced labour; state capacity; extraction; colonialism; development; Colombia |
| JEL: | N36 N96 O10 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021078&r=dev |
| By: | Nana, Ibrahim; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul |
| Abstract: | Global value chains offer countries unique opportunities to participate in and benefit from international trade by specializing in specific production stages and tasks. We investigate the evolution of the integration of African countries into Global Value Chains (GVCs) and establish their relationship with economic growth and income inequality. Using recent export decomposition methods and world Input-Output tables from EORA-Multi-Region Input-Output Tables (MRIOs), we track the evolution of African countries along GVCs, identify specialization patterns and generate sector/task level "GVCs participation measures". We then use the GVCs participation measures to investigate the relationship between GVCs participation and position with economic growth and income inequality. We also explore which sectors explain these relationships. Our analysis is based on a panel data set constructed from a combination of different data sources of 48 African countries over the period 1990-2016. Using several empirical strategies, including a panel fixed effect estimator, instrumental variables, and local projection techniques, we find GVCs to be positively associated with both GDP per capita and income inequality for African countries. These results are consistent for GVCs position and different proxies of income inequality like income share and the standardized Gini coefficients. We also find suggestive evidence from the sectoral assessment of GVCs that this relationship may be driven by trade in knowledge-intensive goods and services. Based on these findings, we discuss some policy insights and implications, key of which is the importance in promoting GVCs and investments in knowledge intensive goods. To this end, various initiatives like skill upgrading, skill-based technological change and various education and labour market programs should take central stage. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains, Trade, Growth, Inequality, Africa |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F43 O55 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:sgscdp:284371&r=dev |
| By: | Frost, Margaret; Kim, Sangeun; Scartascini, Carlos; Zamora, Paula; Zechmeister, Elizabeth J. |
| Abstract: | Political trust is foundational to democratic legitimacy, representative governance, and the provision of effective public policy. Various shocks can influence this trust, steering countries onto positive or negative trajectories. This study examines whether natural disasters can impact general political trust and if disaster relief efforts can mitigate these effects. We investigate the relationships between disaster, trust, and aid using novel survey data collected before and after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Mexico City in September 2017. Our findings reveal that the disaster resulted in an 11% decrease in general political trust. Additionally, we demonstrate that geographical proximity to disaster relief efforts may counterbalance this decline in trust. This study contributes to the scholarship on the politics of disasters and offers policy implications, highlighting the role of disaster assistance in potentially restoring general political trust after a disaster. |
| Keywords: | Political trust;Natural Disaster;Natural experiment;Aid relief;Development |
| JEL: | H84 D72 Q54 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13363&r=dev |
| By: | García-Suaza, Andres (Facultad de Economía Universidad del Rosario); Varela, Daniela (Universidad del Rosario) |
| Abstract: | Monitoring patterns of segregation and inequality at small area geographic levels is extremely costly. However, the increased availability of data through nontraditional sources such as satellite imagery facilitates this task. This paper assess the relevance of data from nightlight and day-time satellite imagery as well as building footprints and localization of points of interest for mapping variability in socioeconomic outcomes, i.e., household income, labor formality, life quality perception and household informality. The outcomes are computed at a granular level by combining census data, survey data, and small area estimation. The results reveal that non traditional sources are important to predict spatial differences socio-economic outcomes. Furthermore, the combination of all sources creates complementarities that enable a more accurate spatial distribution of the studied variables. |
| Keywords: | Remote sensing; Satellite imagery; nightlights; points of interest; spatial segregation; urban footprints; informal housing. |
| JEL: | C21 E26 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:021025&r=dev |
| By: | Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo J. (World Bank); Cueva, Ronald A. (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Dávalos, María E. (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Job quality can impact workers' productivity and contribute to societal well-being. To analyze the evolution of job quality in Bolivia, this paper employs Bolivian household survey data spanning 2007 to 2021 to construct a synthetic job quality index. The index incorporates a broad definition of a good job, encompassing six dimensions: adherence to regulations, working conditions, establishment of an appropriate wage-job linkage, productive usage and adaptability of skills, availability of career opportunities, and employment resilience. The findings indicate that job quality in Bolivia has mostly remained incessant, exhibiting limited change even during periods of high growth in economic output. However, this result masks heterogeneities, with significant variation in job quality associated with workers' demographic and job-specific characteristics and across regions. |
| Keywords: | labor market, principal component analysis, job quality, Bolivia |
| JEL: | J21 J26 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16806&r=dev |
| By: | John D. Huber; Laura Mayoral |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel methodology that uses machine learning to produce accurate estimates of consumption per capita and poverty in 10x10km cells in sub-Saharan Africa over time. Using the new data, we revisit two prominent papers that examine the effect of institutions on economic development, both of which use “nightlights” as a proxy for development. The conclusions from these papers are reversed when we substitute the new consumption data for nightlights. We argue that the different conclusions about institutions are due to a previously unrecognized problem that is endemic when nightlights are used as a proxy for spatial economic well-being: nightlights suffer from nonclassical measurement error. This error will typically lead to biased estimates in standard statistical models that use nightlights as a spatially disaggregated measure of economic development. The bias can be either positive or negative, and it can appear when nightlights are used as either a dependent or an independent variable. Our research therefore underscores an important limitation in the use of nightlights, which has become the standard measure of spatial economic well-being for studies focusing on developing parts of the world. It also demonstrates how machine learning models can generate a useful alternative to nightlights, with important implications for the conclusions we draw from the analyses in which such data are employed. |
| Keywords: | economic develpment, poverty, institutions, nightlights, nonclassical measurement error, machine learning |
| JEL: | C01 P46 P48 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1433&r=dev |
| By: | Abebe, Meseret B.; Alem, Yonas |
| Abstract: | Climate change is making El Niños more frequent and intense. Therefore, understanding the effects of El-Niño-induced climatic events is essential to designing effective coping and adaptation strategies. We identify the impact of the 2015-16 El-Niño-induced large-scale drought on smallholder farmers' livestock holding and milk production using nationally representative data collected before and after the drought. We show that drought reduced milk production and livestock holding by 25.8% and 8.4%, respectively. Heterogenous impact analysis suggests that asset-rich households sold livestock and financed feed purchases, which insulated their milk production from the drought. In contrast, asset-poor households kept their livestock despite the severe drought and absorbed all the decline in milk production. Our findings have important implications for formulating safety net and adaptation programs targeting smallholder farmers and the livestock sector in a rapidly changing climate. |
| Abstract: | Durch den Klimawandel werden El Niños immer häufiger und intensiver. Es ist wichtig, die Auswirkungen der El-Niño-Ereignisse zu verstehen, um wirksame Bewältigungs- und Anpassungsstrategien zu entwickeln. Wir ermitteln die Auswirkungen der durch El Niño verursachten großen Dürre 2015-16 auf den Viehbestand und die Milchproduktion von Kleinbauern anhand national repräsentativer Daten, die vor und nach der Dürre erhoben wurden. Wir zeigen, dass die Dürre die Milchproduktion und den Viehbestand um 25, 8 % bzw. 8, 4 % verringerte. Die Analyse der heterogenen Auswirkungen zeigt, dass vermögensstarke Haushalte ihren Viehbestand verkauften und damit den Kauf von Futtermitteln finanzierten, was ihre Milchproduktion Milchproduktion vor der Dürre schützte. Im Gegensatz dazu behielten die vermögensarmen Haushalte ihren Viehbestand trotz der schweren Dürre bei und fingen den gesamten Rückgang der Milchproduktion auf. Unsere Ergebnisse haben wichtige Implikationen für die Formulierung von Sicherheitsnetz- und Anpassungsprogrammen für Kleinbauern und den Viehzuchtsektor in einem sich rasch verändernden Klima. |
| Keywords: | Drought, diff-in-diff, climate change, smallholder farmer, livestock holding |
| JEL: | D13 O13 O44 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:284396&r=dev |
| By: | Margherita Bove; Rute Martins Caeiro; Rachel Coelho; Sam Jones; Patricia Justino |
| Abstract: | Following the abolition of slavery, various forms of compulsory labour were adopted by colonial powers to develop their economies. This paper analyses the contemporary consequences of compulsory cotton production—a forced labour system that operated in colonial Mozambique from 1926 to 1961. During this period, the Portuguese colonial government granted geographic concessions to private companies, within which smallholder farmers were forced to cultivate cotton for payment in cash. |
| Keywords: | Long-run effects, Forced labour, Violence, Gender, Social capital, Regression discontinuity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-8&r=dev |