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on Development |
| By: | Mogge, Lukas; Roeckert, Julian; Krähnert, Kati |
| Abstract: | Anticipatory humanitarian assistance is a novel approach to aid in the context of weather disasters, drawing on meteorological forecasts. Using a randomized study design, we analyze the impact of anticipatory cash transfers distributed to pastoralist households in Mongolia during an extreme winter event. We do not find overall effects on livestock assets, income, investments, or consumption across the study population. No heterogenous effects are found for different levels of disaster intensity. However, there is robust evidence that cash transfers benefited households with lower pre-treatment wealth. The paper concludes by highlighting practical challenges in evaluating (anticipatory) humanitarian interventions. |
| Abstract: | Vorausschauende humanitäre Hilfe ist ein neuer Ansatz zur Unterstützung von Haushalten bei Extremwetterereignissen, der sich auf meteorologische Vorhersagen stützt. Mithilfe eines randomisierten Studiendesigns wird in dieser Studie die Wirksamkeit vorausschauender Geldtransfers, die während eines extremen Winterereignisses an Viehhalter in der Mongolei verteilt wurden, untersucht. Bei Betrachtung der gesamten Studienstichprobe können wir keine Effekte auf die Herdengröße, Einkommen, Investitionen oder Konsum feststellen. Weiterhin finden wir keine heterogene Effekte in Bezug auf die Intensität des Wetterereignisses. Es gibt jedoch robuste Belege dafür, dass Haushalte, die vor der Intervention über ein geringeres Vermögen verfügen, von den Geldtransfers profitieren. Abschließend werden in der Studie praktische Herausforderungen bei der Evaluierung von (vorausschauenden) humanitären Interventionen diskutiert. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, anticipatory humanitarian assistance, extreme weather events, impact evaluation |
| JEL: | D61 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:282997&r=dev |
| By: | James Manley (Department of Economics, Towson University) |
| Abstract: | As women comprise a larger share of land managers, it is important to discern factors that limit their success. Using nationally representative data from Cambodia we compare factors associated with productivity among female headed households as opposed to male headed households. OLS regressions show that household size, education, vocational training, land area, an index of non-agricultural capital, and the income share from agriculture are positively related to all types of agricultural revenue. However, when we use a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to separately consider revenue from crop production and rice production (as opposed to animal husbandry) we see that after the primacy of land access, the years of education are the next most important, and that differences between endowments explain all of the difference between male and female-headed households. We conclude that there are high returns to investment in education for girls and women in Cambodian agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Cambodia, education, Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, agricultural productivity, FAO, 50x2030. |
| JEL: | Q12 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-03&r=dev |
| By: | Alejandro Estefan; Roberto Gerhard; Joseph P. Kaboski; Illenin O. Kondo; Wei Qian |
| Abstract: | A weakening of labor protection policies is often invoked as one cause of observed monopsony power and the decline in labor’s share of income, but little evidence exists on the causal impact of labor policies on wage markdowns. Using confidential Mexican economic census data from 1994 to 2019, we document a rising trend over this period in on-site outsourcing. Then, leveraging data from a manufacturing panel survey from 2013 to 2023 and a natural experiment featuring a ban on domestic outsourcing in 2021, we show that the ban drastically reduced outsourcing, increased wages, and reduced measured markdowns without lowering output or employment. Consistent with the presence of monopsony power, we observe large markdowns for the largest firms, with the decline in markdowns in response to the ban concentrated among high-markdown firms. However, we also find that the reform reduced capital investment and increased the probability of market exit. |
| Keywords: | Markdowns; Outsourcing; Monopsony; Developing countries |
| JEL: | J38 O15 J81 M55 J42 |
| Date: | 2024–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:97774&r=dev |
| By: | Chloe Allison; Neryvia Pillay |
| Abstract: | South Africa faces high inequality and numerous challenges posed by the long-lasting legacies of apartheid. South Africas generous social welfare system represents a major government intervention to address these challenges. Using a province fixed effects model with annual price and household survey data, we study the relationship between existing grants and prices from 2009 to 2021. We observe a significant increase in the prices of goods and services consumed by individuals in the poorest deciles. We find that results are dependent on the type of grant received and the characteristics of beneficiary households. We also find that price increases are particularly evident in markets with inelastic supply, where the demand for goods and services outpaces their supply. |
| Date: | 2024–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11057&r=dev |
| By: | Araujo, Rafael; Borges, Bruna; Costa, Francisco J M (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance); Santos, Kelly |
| Abstract: | Gender gaps in land ownership are common across the world, favoring male-headed households with more wealth and land. In low- and middle-income countries, where women lack property, inheritance, and credit rights, these disparities contribute to gender inequality in rural areas. The adoption of advanced agricultural technology, while economically positive, can worsen gender disparities. This paper studies the impact of new agricultural technologies on female land ownership, focusing on genetically engineered (GE) soy seeds in Brazil. Despite technology's potential to reduce gender inequality, we find a significant decline in female landownership in GE soy-exposed regions. We examine the role of mechanisms like credit access, property rights, and gender norms. We find that the effects are more pronounced where rural credit is more abundant, property rights are stronger, and gender norms are more unequal. Our findings highlight the unintended consequences of the spread of new technologies on rural asset ownership, underscoring the importance of considering gender disparities in crafting agricultural and climate change strategies. |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dk4bc&r=dev |
| By: | Joaquín Prieto (International Inequalities Institute at the LSE) |
| Abstract: | I propose an empirical framework to identify different degrees of vulnerability to poverty using two vulnerability lines that classify currently non-poor people into risk groups: high, moderate and low risk of falling into poverty in the next period. The latter corresponds to the income secure middle class. My approach makes two contributions. First, it extends recent research that defines the middle class using a vulnerability threshold by introducing a new subdivision of the vulnerable group that would be useful in practice for public policy objectives. Second, it uses two models to predict both the probability of entering poverty and household income as part of the estimation procedures. The former controls for initial conditions effects and attrition bias, and the latter addresses the retransformation problem. I apply my approach to Chile using longitudinal data from the P-CASEN 2006-2009. The resulting vulnerability cut-offs (using the upper-middle-income country poverty line) are $20.0 per person per day for the low vulnerability line and $9.9 pppd for the high vulnerability line (both in 2011 PPP). My vulnerability lines differ significantly from those estimated in previous research on vulnerability and the middle class in Latin America. I argue that previous research has underestimated the size of the population at risk of falling into poverty and overestimated the growth of the middle class. Misclassifying the vulnerable as middle class limits their access to anti-poverty policies. |
| Keywords: | Chile, Latin America, longitudinal data, middle class, poverty dynamics, vulnerability to poverty |
| JEL: | C18 D31 D63 I32 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2024-666&r=dev |
| By: | Akame, Afuge; Mavrotas, George |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impact of various forms of donor aid on economic growth in 39 sub-Saharan African countries from 2002 to 2020. The findings suggest that while total aid positively influences growth, different aid modalities have varying effects, with project aid and technical assistance boosting growth, while budget support and humanitarian assistance hinder it. The study emphasizes the importance of disaggregating aid types in research on aid effectiveness, challenging the traditional approach of using a single figure for aid in policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, aid, sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:dpaper:202401&r=dev |
| By: | Afsah Khalid; Dr. Qaiser Munir (School of Economics and Social Sciences, IBA Karachi) |
| Abstract: | The following study attempts to demonstrate poverty determinants and calculate expenditure inequalities. Secondary household level cross-sectional data is used from the PSLM/HIES 2018-2019 survey. Logit and quantile regressions have been run. Logit regression has been used to find the probability of being poor in relation to certain characteristics of both households and household heads. Quantile regression has been utilized to find regression lines at each quantile and possible significance. To measure inequalities in the country among provincial, regional and gender groups, Gini coefficients, Generalized Entropy Indices, Atkinson Indices and the Foster-Greere Thorbeck measures have all been used. The results indicate that female-headed households in rural areas of Punjab are most likely to face inequalities in consumption distributions. The highest impacting determinants from the regression results are the size of the household, rural regions, access to facilities like internet, garbage collection, toilets, drainage, hand-washing agents and an adequate source of water. The number of rooms in the house were found to be significant as well. These findings indicate that policies to reduce poverty and inequality should be focused in Pakistan. There is a need for integrated policy making. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aho:ibaess:wpsil5&r=dev |
| By: | Saibu, Ghadafi |
| Abstract: | Does the length of time passing between elections and the announcement of elections results increase the risk of post-election violence? The declaration of official election results is a crucial moment in the electoral cycle. When electoral management bodies (EMBs) take longer than expected to announce official election results, it can signal to the opposition that the election is being stolen. Following this logic, this paper argues that the length of time between elections and the announcement of the official results acts as a signal of possible voter fraud, thereby increasing incentives for post-election violence. Hence, the paper hypothesises that a long length of time between elections and the announcement of official results increases the risk of post-election violence. This hypothesis is examined with an original dataset of election results declarations in African countries from 1997 to 2022. After controlling for important confounders that could influence delays in reporting and violence, the article empirically demonstrates that a longer length of time between elections and the announcement of official election results increases the risk of post-election violence. In doing so, this paper makes a significant contribution to studies of elections, and electoral violence. Its provision of a new dataset on election results declarations in African countries is also a significant contribution. |
| Keywords: | Election violence, delayed elections, post-election violence, elections results declarations, announcement of elections results, Africa |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:283125&r=dev |
| By: | Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu |
| Abstract: | Africa is currently undergoing the most rapid urbanisation process globally, and this trend is forecast to persist in the coming decades. Many believe that this ongoing rapid urbanisation process is changing the social fabric and reshaping social cohesion. This study explores the theoretical channels through which urbanisation affects social cohesion and provides empirical evidence of their interrelationship. Specifically, the study asks: given the vast social, economic, cultural, political and environmental transformation associated with urbanisation, is there a link between urbanisation and social cohesion? Combining a novel national panel data set on social cohesion from Afrobarometer with urbanisation and other socioeconomic data from world development indicators, the study shows that urbanisation is negatively correlated with the three attributes of social cohesion, namely trust, inclusive identity, and cooperation for the common good. These associations persist even after controlling for country socioeconomic conditions and year fixed effects. Moreover, the magnitude of this association varies across attributes, with trust and inclusive identity showing a higher correlation than cooperation for the common good. Urbanisation-induced change in economic and environmental structure, such as employment, infrastructure, and pollution, are the main channels affecting social cohesion. Overall, the findings underscore the need for inclusive urban development and policies focused on ameliorating social fragmentation resulting from rapid urbanisation unfolding across Africa. |
| Keywords: | Urbanisation, social cohesion, trust, inclusive identity, cooperation for the common good, Africa |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:282980&r=dev |
| By: | Fergusson, Leopoldo (Universidad de los Andes); Robinson, James (University of Chicago); Torres, Santiago (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how economic inequality can persist in Latin America in the context of radical falls in political inequality in the last decades. Using data from Colombia, we focus on a critical facet of democratization - the entry of new politicians. We show that initial levels of inequality play a significant role in determining the impact of political entry on local institutions, policy, and development outcomes, which can impact future inequality. A vicious circle emerges whereby policies that reduce inequality are less likely to be adopted and implemented in places with relatively high inequality. We present evidence that this is caused both by the capture of new politicians and barriers to institution and state capacity building, and also by the fact that politicians committed to redistribution are less likely to win in relatively unequal places. Our results, therefore, help to reconcile the persistence of economic inequality with the new political context. |
| Keywords: | inequality; political entry; public policy; development. |
| JEL: | D72 D78 H40 H50 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021029&r=dev |
| By: | Pittock, Jamie |
| Abstract: | Sustainable intensification of agricultural production is needed to feed 10 billion people who have limited land and water resources in a changing climate. In Africa, enormous investment in irrigation schemes has resulted in a build–fail–rebuild cycle that has trapped farmers in poverty. The Australian National University and partners have been supported by ACIAR in ‘Transforming Irrigation in Southern Africa’ (TISA) from 2013 to 2023, to reboot failing small-holder (average farm size = 0.5 ha; ~15, 500 farm households) irrigation schemes in Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. We intervened in two ways. First, farmers were provided with simple-to-use soil monitoring tools – the Chameleon and Full Stop (https://via.farm/) – to manage their water application and soil fertility. Farmers at the head end of canals reduced their water application by half to two thirds, increasing crop yields and generating many other benefits. Second, in a social process, farmers formed agricultural innovation platforms. They identified, prioritised and fixed problems that they could influence, including to: grow more profitable crops, lower input costs, better access markets, and in some cases, undertake further processing. This increased household incomes and catalysed many other benefits. For example, during the COVID crisis, food insecurity in TISA schemes was much less than for non-TISA schemes. This is analogous to the resilience required under a changing climate. The TISA project illustrates that: 1. Agriculture systems are complex and require multiple social and technological investments to become more sustainable and profitable; 2. Empowering farming communities and businesses is key to building profitable agricultural systems that deliver lasting benefits; 3. Significant decoupling of resource use from production is possible and this increases resilience to shocks; and 4. Long term (10 years) of research for development investment by ACIAR into community driven research has enabled lasting change. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp23:339628&r=dev |
| By: | David Rios; Alex Perez; Jaime Carabali; Luis Meneses |
| Abstract: | Estudiamos el efecto de los eventos climáticos adversos sobre los precios minoristas de la electricidad. Nos enfocamos en el caso colombiano dado que este mercado se encuentra hidro-dominado y expuesto al fenómeno de El Niño, el cual provoca una reducción notable del componente hidrológico de la generación de electricidad. Diseñamos un modelo estructural para entender la formación de los precios minoristas. Posteriormente, utilizamos el modelo para estudiar cómo responden los precios a eventos climáticos severos. Los resultados muestran que, cuando no hay presencia de El Niño, las firmas minoristas tienden a traspasar de forma más que completa los choques de costos a los precios. Por otro lado, no encontramos evidencia de que el traspaso difiera cuando hay presencia de El Niño. Esto implica que el efecto de El Niño sobre los precios minoristas corre a través de su efecto sobre los costos mayoristas, exclusivamente. Encontramos evidencia de que los precios minoristas incrementan en presencia de El Niño, debido al incremento de los precios spot en el mercado mayorista de electricidad. **** Abstract We study the effect of adverse weather events on retail electricity prices. We focus on the Colombian case given that this market is hydro-dominated and exposed to the El Niño phenomenon, which causes a notable reduction in the hydrological component of electricity generation. We design a structural model to understand the formation of retail prices. We then use the model to study how prices respond to severe weather events. The results show that, under normal conditions, retail firms have control over the pass-through of wholesale cost shocks to retail prices. However, we do not find evidence that the pass-through differs when El Niño is present. This implies that El Niño’s effect on retail prices runs through its effect on wholesale costs exclusively. We find evidence that retail prices increase in the presence of El Niño, due to the increase in spot prices in the wholesale electricity market. |
| Keywords: | Mercados de electricidad, Precios minoristas, Precios mayoristas, Fenómeno de El Niño, Electricity markets, Retail prices, Wholesale prices, El Niño phenomenon |
| JEL: | D43 Q49 L11 L12 L94 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1266&r=dev |
| By: | Rafael Dix-Carneiro (Duke University); Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg (Yale University); Costas Meghir (Yale University); Gabriel Ulyssea (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of international trade in the presence of a set of domestic distortions giving rise to informality, a prevalent phenomenon in developing countries. In our quantitative model, the informal sector arises from burdensome taxes and regulations that are imperfectly enforced by the government. Consequently, smaller, less productive firms face fewer distortions than larger, more productive ones, potentially leading to substantial misallocation. We show that in settings with a large informal sector, the gains from trade are significantly amplified, as reductions in trade barriers imply a reallocation of resources from initially less distorted to more distorted firms. We confirm findings from earlier reduced-form studies that the informal sector mitigates the impact of negative labor demand shocks on unemployment. Nonetheless, the informal sector can exacerbate the adverse welfare effects of economic downturns, amplifying misallocation. Last, our research sheds light on the relationship between trade openness and cross-firm wage inequality. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2384&r=dev |
| By: | Khadija Mujahid (School of Economics and Social Sciences, IBA Karachi) |
| Abstract: | The infant mortality rate (IMR) varies by area, with Pakistan and other developing nations seeing high prevalence. At 86 deaths per 1000 babies born, infant mortality in Pakistan was notably high until the beginning of the 1990s. According to the World Bank data, it decreased by 24 points in the past three decades to 62 fatalities per 1000 in 2015 though Pakistan's IMR discrepancy has not yet been adequately addressed. Pakistan continues to be among the nations with the highest infant mortality rates; thus, we looked at the IMR inequality and identified the potential risk factors using the most suitable methodologies, such as principal component analysis (PCA) for wealth index, to draw conclusions based on evidence. The analysis for this study included a total weighted sample of 12, 708 mothers of childbearing age who reported experiencing infant mortality in the previous five years as part of the Pakistan Demographic Health Survey (PDHS). The count models, Poisson and Negative Binomial, assessed the risk indicators associated with infant mortality in Pakistan. A closer look at the number of infant deaths showed over-dispersion because the variance (0.389) is higher than the mean (0.250). AIC (14961.63), and BIC (15170.23) values of the multilevel negative binomial regression model are the lowest making it the best model for assessing infant mortality in Pakistan. Baluchistan had the highest number of infant deaths per mother against the babies born in the last five years (167, 6.19%). In FATA, 22 infants died out of 1883 babies born making the lowest proportion of infant deaths (1.17%). IMR was more prevalent in female babies from the most impoverished subpopulations, such asthe uneducated, poorest, and rural residents. The poorest households, rural people, women without a formal education, and female infants must all be the focus of efforts to eradicate the observed inequities. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aho:ibaess:wpsil3&r=dev |
| By: | Kezuka, Kazuhiro (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research); Kakinuma, Kaoru; Tamura, Kohei; Takikawa, Hiroki; Fujioka, Yuichiro |
| Abstract: | Winter disasters have exacerbated inequality among Mongolian herders with respect to livestock numbers. This study analyzes these dynamics through the lens of the poverty trap based on the concept of the Allee effect and examining panel survey data from herders collected between 2003 and 2013. The results suggest that poor herders stuck in the poverty trap endure significant damage, whereas rich herders outside the poverty trap experience minimal damage and high growth. |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:eu6dj&r=dev |
| By: | Camila Scur, Mayara; Centuriao, Daniel; Niel Berlinck, Christian; Kelly Luciano Batista, Eugênia; Libonati, Renata; Rodrigues, Julia; Valle Nunes, André; Couto Garcia, Leticia; Fernandes, G. Wilson; Alves Damasceno-Junior, Geraldo; de Matos Martins Pereira, Alexandre; Anderson, Liana; Manuel Ochoa-Quintero, Jose; da Rosa Oliveira, Maxwell; Bandini Ribeiro, Danilo; O. Roque, Fabio |
| Abstract: | The Pantanal, the Earth's largest continuous wetland, experienced severe impacts from wildfires in 2019 and, particularly, in 2020. The surge in wildfires can be attributed to several factors, including climate extremes, inadequate fire management, ineffective policymaking, as well as commercial and demographic dynamics. Understanding the economic effects of wildfires is crucial for guiding resource allocation toward prevention and firefighting efforts. This study aims to examine the economic losses resulting from the catastrophic wildfires in the Brazilian Pantanal region during 2019 and 2020. By utilizing publicly available datasets and data obtained from representatives of public and private institutions, we constructed scenarios to simulate the fire's impacts on economic input-output matrices. Through the application of structural impact analysis, we can simulate variations in output, value-added, and income by considering demand variation scenarios resulting from external shocks. Our findings reveal that the economic impact of the wildfires extends beyond the burned areas, affecting other regions of Brazil, such as São Paulo and Paraná. The lack of a comprehensive public database encompassing different scales (municipal, state, and national), along with a clear methodology for calculating and reporting firefighting expenses, hinders accurate prediction of economic losses and impedes proactive investments in wildfire prevention. |
| Keywords: | structural impact analysis, natural disasters, input-output models, S2iD portal, tele-coupling |
| JEL: | Q15 Q57 |
| Date: | 2023–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119399&r=dev |
| By: | Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | We examine whether changes in capital intensity from Vietnamese firms during 1999-2019 influence family formation and gender inequality, using panel data of communes. We use the recorded trajectories of cyclones to create a damage index as an instrumental variable. We find that higher capital intensity is associated with a higher share of single people and a lower share of families with multiple generations living together. Also, women prepared for high capital intensity industries by increasing their educational attainment. However, the results also indicate the sex ratio at birth is more skewed in communes with high capital intensity. |
| Keywords: | Capital intensity, Gender inequality, Family formation, Cyclones, Vietnam |
| JEL: | I24 J12 J16 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120002&r=dev |