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on Development |
| By: | Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Neidhöfer, Guido |
| Abstract: | How strong is the transmission of socio-economic status across generations in Latin America? To answer this question, we first review the empirical literature on intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity for the region, summarizing results for both income and educational outcomes. We find that, whereas the income mobility literature is hampered by a paucity of representative datasets containing linked information on parents and children, the inequality of opportunity approach – which relies on other inherited and pre-determined circumstance variables – has suffered from arbitrariness in the choice of population partitions. Two new data-driven approaches – one aligned with the ex-ante and the other with the ex-post conception of inequality of opportunity – are introduced to address this shortcoming. They yield a set of new inequality of opportunity estimates for twenty-seven surveys covering nine Latin American countries over various years between 2000 and 2015. In most cases, more than half of the current generation’s inequality is inherited from the past – with a range between 44% and 63%. We argue that on balance, given the parsimony of the population partitions, these are still likely to be underestimates. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2024–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qwb6k&r=dev |
| By: | Manuela Cerimelo (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Pablo de la Vega (IIE-FCE-UNLP); Natalia Porto (IIE-FCE-UNLP); Franco Vazquez (IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates wage differentials between green and non-green jobs (wage greenium) in nine major Latin American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay), which account for 81% of the region’s GDP. We contribute to the recent literature highlighting a positive wage gap for those working in green jobs in developed countries. A positive wage gap for green jobs may be a virtuous market feature, as it means that in the future workers might be encouraged to switch to greener occupations. To do so, we define green jobs as those occupations with high greenness scores using the occupational approach as in Vona et al. (2018), Vona (2021) and de la Vega et al. (2024). Our results suggest that the wage greenium for the period 2012-2019 in Latin America was between 18% to 22%. Moreover, this wage gap has remained relatively stable over the years. |
| JEL: | E24 Q50 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0325&r=dev |
| By: | Carneiro. Juliana (University of Warwick); Koppensteiner, Martin Foureaux (University of Surrey); Menezes, Livia (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of transitory individual-level health shocks on schooling outcomes in Brazil. We focus on dengue fever, which, despite putting half of the world’s population at risk, has received relatively little attention, possibly due to its low mortality. We link individual register data on dengue infections with detailed individual records from the Brazilian school census and use a fixed effects estimation strategy to estimate the effect of dengue infections on grade retention and dropout. We find that dengue infections during the school year have a substantial negative effect on measures of student success, with an increase in grade retention of 3.5 percent and an increase in dropout of 4.6 percent. Using information on monthly attendance from the monitoring system of conditionalities of the Brazilian cash transfer Bolsa Famılia, we provide evidence that infections reduce school attendance. |
| Keywords: | Health shocks ; dengue ; educational outcomes ; drop-out JEL Codes: I12 ; J13 ; K42 ; O12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1488&r=dev |
| By: | Joël Cariolle (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Yasmine Elkhateeb (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University); Mathilde Maurel (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The use of the Internet to access news has an impact on African citizens' perceptions of democracy. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the Afrobarometer survey across 35 African countries over the period 2011-2018, along with an instrumental variable approach, allows addressing potential endogeneity bias between Internet use and citizens' perceptions. The results indicate that using the Internet to obtain information has a significant negative effect on both the preference for and the perception of the extent of democracy. This negative effect is due to several factors. First, Internet use erodes trust in government institutions, mainly in the parliament and the ruling party. It increases the perception that parliament members are involved in corruption. In addition, the erosion of trust is correlated with more political mobilization, in the form of greater participation in demonstrations and voting. These results echo the existing literature and, in particular, hint at the risks of reversal of nascent democratization processes. Finally, the Internet seems to act as a misinformation channel. On the one hand, Internet users' perception of the extent of democracy and perception of the corruption of legislators diverge from experts' assessments. On the other hand, Internet use increases the likelihood of inconsistency in respondents' stances on their preference for democracy. The Internet is not a neutral information channel: it tends to undermine citizens' preference for democracy while also altering perceptions about political institutions. |
| Keywords: | Internet, Democracy, Misinformation, Africa, Media & democracy |
| Date: | 2024–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-04423752&r=dev |
| By: | Lindlacher Valentin; Gustav Pirich |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the economic impact of China’s “stadium diplomacy” in Sub-Saharan Africa. Exploiting the staggered timing of the construction in a difference-in-differences framework, we analyze the effect of Chinese-built and financed stadiums on local economic development. Employing nighttime light satellite data, we provide both an aggregate and spatially disaggregated assessment of these investments. We find that a stadium’s city nighttime light intensity increases by 25 percent, on average, after stadium completion. The stadium’s direct surrounding increases by 34 percent, on average, in its nighttime light activity. The effects can be attributed to the stadiums but are not only visible close to the stadium’s location. The effect remains strong when controlling for other local Chinese investments. Thus, we find evidence for beneficial effects of Chinese-built and financed stadiums on local economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa, contrasting with the widely held notion that China’s development finance projects constitute “white elephants”. |
| Keywords: | stadium diplomacy, regional development, nighttime light, local public infrastructure, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | O18 R11 O55 R53 Z20 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10893&r=dev |
| By: | Hany Abdel-Latif; Mr. Mahmoud El-Gamal |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the factors leading to exclusion and their detrimental impacts in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It employs two-levels of analysis: a macro-level estimation of the influence of exclusion and marginalization on violent conflict, and a micro-level investigation identifying the triggers of exclusion sentiments. We construct statistical summaries from multiple measures of exclusion, producing an overall exclusion index as well as social, economic, and political exclusion sub-indices. Our results show the importance of mitigating exclusion and marginalization within SSA nations, and pinpoint the most effective policy levers that governments may use to minimize destabilizing feelings of exclusion. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa; Conflict; Social exclusion; Political exclusion; Economic exclusion |
| Date: | 2024–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/004&r=dev |
| By: | Richard Daramola; Md Shahadath Hossain; Harounan Kazianga; Karim Nchare |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the long-term impacts of the National Vaccination Commando Program, an early childhood health intervention in Burkina Faso, during the 1980s. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find significant reductions in child mortality and improvements in educational attainment, including increased primary school completion rates. We also find significant positive effects on adult employment and agricultural productivity, yielding a substantial rate of return on the initial health intervention. These findings underscore the lasting benefits of early childhood health interventions in low-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Early Childhood Interventions, Vaccination, Measles, Long-term Impacts, Economic Returns, Burkina Faso |
| JEL: | D61 I15 I25 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:493&r=dev |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota, Humphrey School of Public Affairs); Thomas Ginn (Center for Global Development); Mohamed Saleh (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | While labor market impacts of refugees in low- and middle-income countries are commonly studied, public services like education could also be affected by mass arrivals. This paper examines the impact of Syrian refugees on the educational outcomes of Jordanians. Combining detailed household surveys with school-level records on the density of Syrians, we study both the quantity and quality of education using a difference-in-differences design across refugee prevalence and schooling cohort. We find no evidence that Syrians significantly affected the educational outcomes of Jordanians. We show that the government's response of establishing second shifts in existing public schools and opening new schools in camps mitigated potential overcrowding. |
| Keywords: | Education; Refugees; Forced Migration; Middle East |
| JEL: | I21 J61 N35 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:679&r=dev |
| By: | Andre Groeger; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how social networks (might fail to) shape agricultural practices. We exploit (i) a unique census of agricultural production nested within delineated land parcels and (ii) comprehensive social network data within four repopulated villages of rural Vietnam. In a first step, we extract exogenous variation in network formation from home locations within the few streets that compose each village (populated through staggered population resettlement), and we estimate the return to social links in the adoption of highly-productive crops. We find a large network multiplier, in apparent contradiction with lowadoption rates. In a second step, we study the structure of network formation to explain this puzzle: social networks display large homophily, and valuable links between heterogeneous households are rare. Due to the clustered nature of networks and the dynamic, endogenous propagation of agricultural practices, there are decreasing returns to social links, and policies targeting “inbetweeners” are most able to mitigate this issue. |
| Keywords: | technology adoption, social networks |
| JEL: | D85 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1426&r=dev |
| By: | Hoang, Trung Xuan; Nguyen, Cuong Viet |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the long-term effect of the density of the elite - the highest educated - during the period 1075-1919 on today's educational attainment and economic performance in Vietnam. Using nearly 20, 000 elites, including 17, 061 junior bachelors and bachelors, and 2, 895 doctors who passed the imperial examination (1075-1919), and the distance to the nearest examination centers as an instrumental variable, we find that elite density has persistent effects on the present-day educational attainment, income, poverty, and night-time light intensity. The impact of the elite density on schooling years tends to be higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Our findings are robust to a variety of model specifications. |
| Keywords: | Human capital, historical legacy, economic growth, household income |
| JEL: | I25 O12 E24 N35 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1389&r=dev |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh; Kilic, Talip; Hlasny, Vladimir; Abanokova, Kseniya; Carletto, Calogero |
| Abstract: | Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying survey questionnaire length; the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model; different poverty lines; and alternative (quarterly or monthly) CPI deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (e.g., shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-à-vis the base survey. For best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum-required sample size should be 1, 000 for both base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys. |
| Keywords: | consumption, poverty, survey-to-survey imputation, household surveys, Tanzania |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1392&r=dev |
| By: | Prieto Suarez, Joaquin |
| Abstract: | I propose an empirical framework to identify different degrees of vulnerability to poverty using two vulnerability lines that classify currently non-poor people into risk groups: high, moderate and low risk of falling into poverty in the next period. The latter corresponds to the income-secure middle class. My approach features two contributions. First, it extends the latest research on vulnerability to poverty, introducing a new subdivision among the vulnerable group that would be useful, in practice, for public policy objectives. Second, it uses two models to predict both poverty entry probability and household income as part of the estimation procedures. The former controls for initial conditions effects and attrition bias and the latter addresses the retransformation problem. I apply my approach to Chile using longitudinal data from the P-CASEN 2006–2009. The vulnerability cut-offs obtained (using the poverty line for upper-middle-income countries) are for the low vulnerability line $20.0 dollars per person per day and for the high vulnerability line $9.9 dollars pppd (both in 2011 PPP). My vulnerability lines differ significantly from those estimated in earlier research on vulnerability and the middle-class in Latin America. I argue that the previous research has underestimated the size of the population that is vulnerable to falling into poverty and has overestimated the growth of the middle-class. Misclassifying the vulnerable as middle-class limits their chances of accessing to anti-poverty protection policies. |
| Keywords: | Chile; Latin America; longitudinal data; middle class; poverty dynamics; vulnerability to poverty |
| JEL: | N00 D31 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121993&r=dev |
| By: | David Roodman |
| Abstract: | Summan, Nandi, and Bloom (2023; SNB) finds that exposure of babies to India's Universal Immunization Programme (UIP) in the late 1980s increased their weekly wages in early adulthood by 0.138 log points and per-capita household consumption 0.028 points. But the results are attained by regressing on age, in years, while controlling for year of birth--two variables that, as constructed, are nearly collinear. The results are therefore attributable to trends during the one-year survey period, such as inflation. A randomization exercise shows that when the true impacts are zero, the SNB estimator averages 0.088 points for wages and 0.039 points for consumption. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.11100&r=dev |
| By: | Leonard Mushunje; Maxwell Mashasha |
| Abstract: | This paper uses nighttime light(NTL) data to measure the nexus of the non-banking sector, particularly insurance, and economic growth in South Africa. We hypothesize that insurance sector growth positively propels economic growth due to its economic growth-supportive traits like investment protection and optimal risk mitigation. We also claim that Nighttime light data is a good economic measure than Gross domestic product (GDP). We used weighted regressions to measure the relationships between nighttime light data, GDP, and insurance sector development. We used time series South African GDP data collected from the World Bank for the period running from 2000 to 2018, and the nighttime lights data from the National Geophysical Data Centre (NGDC) in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). From the models fitted and the reported BIC, AIC, and likelihood ratios, the insurance sector proved to have more predictive power on economic development in South Africa, and radiance light explained economic growth better than GDP and GDP/Capita. We concluded that nighttime data is a good proxy for economic growth than GDP/Capita in emerging economies like South Africa, where secondary data needs to be more robust and sometimes inflated. The findings will guide researchers and policymakers on what drives economic development and what policies to put in place. It would be interesting to extend the current study to other sectors such as micro-finances, mutual and hedge funds. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.08596&r=dev |
| By: | Christelle Zozoungbo |
| Abstract: | This paper employs a nonlinear difference-in-differences approach to empirically examine the Maximally Maintained Inequality (MMI) hypothesis in rural Benin. The findings of this study confirm the MMI hypothesis. In particular, it is observed that when 76% of educated parents choose to educate their daughters in the absence of educational programs, in contrast to only 37% among non-educated parents, the average impact of tuition fee subsidy on enrollment probability in primary schools stands at 3.8\% for non-educated households and 0.27% for educated households. Conversely, in cases where only 27% of educated parents decide to educate their daughters without education programs, the average effect of tuition fee waivers on enrollment probability in primary schools increases to 19.64\% for non-educated households and 24\% for educated households. From the analysis of household education decisions influenced by a preference for education and budget constraints, three key conclusions emerge to explain the mechanism behind the MMI. Firstly, when the income advantage of educated households compared to non-educated households is significantly high, irrespective of the level of their preference advantage, reducing the financial cost of education induces a greater shift in education decisions among non-educated households. Secondly, in situations where educated households do not possess an income advantage relative to non-educated households, the reduction in education-related financial costs leads to a more pronounced change in education decisions among educated households. Lastly, for the low-income advantage of educated households, as the income advantage of educated households increases, non-educated households respond more to education policy than educated parents, if the preference advantage of educated households is relatively smaller. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.17391&r=dev |
| By: | Bensch, Gunther; Jeuland, Marc; Lenz, Luciane; Ndiaye, Ousmane |
| Abstract: | Rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa have experienced limited progress towards the sustainable development goal of universal access to clean cooking. Energy-efficient biomass cookstoves (EEBCs) are considered a potential bridge technology, but EEBC models vary widely, and there is a lack of understanding about their real-world use implications. We conduct a randomized controlled trial in rural Senegal to compare a low-cost, locally produced stove designed to achieve fuel savings and an expensive, imported stove shown to be more efficient and emissions-reducing in the laboratory. We find that the two EEBCs perform similarly: both reduce fuel consumption but have no significant impact on cooking time and fuel collection, emissions, or objective health measures. We conclude that the technically advanced option is not cost effective for most of our sample, while the low-cost EEBC can be seen as a stop-gap solution that primarily reduces fuel use. The findings underpin the importance of customizing EEBC dissemination to local context and baseline cooking patterns. |
| Abstract: | In den ländlichen Gebieten Afrikas südlich der Sahara lassen sich nur begrenzte Fortschritte beim allgemeinen Zugang zu sauberem Kochen beobachten. Energieeffiziente Biomasse-Kochherde (EEBCs) gelten als potenzielle Brückentechnologie, EEBC-Modelle unterscheiden sich jedoch sehr, und es mangelt an Evidenz zu ihrer Effektivität in der Praxis. Diese Studie vergleicht einen kostengünstigen, lokal produzierten Herd, der auf Brennstoffeinsparung ausgelegt ist, mit einem teuren, importierten Herd, der sich im Labor als effizienter und emissionsmindernd erwiesen hat. Hierfür nutzen wir eine randomisierte, kontrollierte Studie unter Haushalten im ländlichen Senegal. Wir kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass die beiden EEBCs ähnliche Effekte zeigen: Beide reduzieren den Brennstoffverbrauch, haben aber keinen signifikanten Einfluss auf die Kochzeit, die Dauer des Sammelns von Brennstoff, die Emissionen oder objektive Gesundheitsmessungen. Wir kommen zu dem Schluss, dass die technisch fortschrittlichere Option für die meisten Haushalte unserer Stichprobe nicht kosteneffizient ist, während die kostengünstige EEBC als Übergangslösung angesehen werden kann, die in erster Linie den Brennstoffverbrauch reduziert. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen, wie wichtig es ist, die Verbreitungsstrategien von EEBCs auf den lokalen Kontext und lokale Kochgewohnheiten anzupassen. |
| Keywords: | Cookstoves, energy access, biomass burning, energy efficiency, technology choice |
| JEL: | C93 D12 O12 O13 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:282010&r=dev |
| By: | Rodrigo Nicolau (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Andrea Vigorito (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies poverty stigma and its relationship with income and social assistance recipiency trajectories, as well as the mediating role of beliefs regarding ways of achieving individual success and well-being. We use longitudinal survey data from Uruguay coming from the 2004, 2011/12 and 2015/17 waves of Estudio Longitudinal del Bienestar en Uruguay. First, we conduct a psychometric validation of poverty shame and shame proneness survey modules proposed by Zavaleta (2007). By carrying out exploratory and confirmatory statistical analyses, we find that only the shame proneness component possesses desirable psychometric properties, and thus construct a shame proneness index and analyze its correlation with multiple socioeconomic characteristics. Shame proneness is unequally distributed among the population, as it is negatively associated with household income, educational level, and employment status of the household head, while it is positively related to Afro-Uruguayan ethnicity, being a woman, region of residence, and personality traits (as of the Big Five Inventory). We further investigate the determinants of shame proneness and find that shame proneness is negatively associated with past and present income, past and present poverty and extreme poverty, and past and present recipiency of social assistance. Moreover, we find that these correlations are stronger when individuals believe that individual success is mostly determined by hard work instead of luck. Although these findings require further study, they open up avenues for discussion on which ways redistributive and poverty alleviating policies should be framed. |
| Keywords: | stigma, shame, poverty, social assistance, Uruguay, ELBU, psychometric validation |
| JEL: | C8 D31 I3 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-25-23&r=dev |
| By: | Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Salas-Rojo, Pedro |
| Abstract: | Scholars have sought to quantify the extent of inequality which is inherited from past generations in many different ways, including a large body of work on intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity. This paper makes three contributions to that broad literature. First, we show that many of the most prominent approaches to measuring mobility or inequality of opportunity fit within a general framework which involves, as a first step, a calculation of the extent to which inherited circumstances can predict current incomes. The importance of prediction has led to recent applications of machine learning tools to solve the model selection challenge in the presence of competing upward and downward biases. Our second contribution is to apply transformation trees to the computation of inequality of opportunity. Because the algorithm is built on a likelihood maximization that involves splitting the sample into groups with the most salient differences between their conditional cumulative distributions, it is particularly well-suited to measuring ex-post inequality of opportunity, following Roemer (1998). Our third contribution is to apply the method to data from South Africa, arguably the world’s most unequal country, and find that almost three-quarters of its current inequality is inherited from predetermined circumstances, with race playing the largest role, but parental background also making an important contribution. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2024–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rgq7t&r=dev |
| By: | Bedaso, Fenet Jima |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of female occupational segregation on the gender wage gap across the entire wage distribution. Using the Ethiopian labor force survey, I employ unconditional quantile regression based on the recentered in uence function and correct sample selection issues that arise due to nonrandom decision of female labor force participation using Heckman's two-stage method for baseline estimation. The results show that women earn less than men throughout the wage distribution, even after controlling for personal and labor market characteristics. Importantly, female occupational segregation has a negative coefficient across the wage distribution except at the end of the distribution and partly explains the gender wage gap at the bottom and median percentile of the wage distribution. Using the recentered in uence function decomposition, I find that the gender wage gap due to structural effect is highest at the bottom of the wage distribution, evidence of sticky oor effects. Finally, the estimation shows that the gender wage gap is higher in the private sector than in the public sector across the wage distribution. |
| Keywords: | Occupational segregation, gender wage gap, unconditional quantile regression, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | C21 J3 J16 J71 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1393&r=dev |