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on Development |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Trinh, Trong-Anh |
| Abstract: | We offer an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analyzing a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys, we find that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. Our findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, temperature, poverty, inequality, subnational data |
| JEL: | Q54 I32 O1 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1347&r=dev |
| By: | Ashani Amarasinghe (School of Economics, University of Sydney and and SoDa Laboratories, Monash University;); Pushkar Maitra (Department of Economics, Monash University); Yuchen Zhong (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research, University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | Better economic outcomes can prevail when governments at different levels of hierarchy are politically aligned. This often happens because upper level governments are more willing to transfer resources to, and invest in public goods in, aligned constituencies. In this paper we examine whether such political alignment causally affects security. We consider the case of the Naxalite insurgency in India, an issue of significant public safety and security. We focus on close elections and use a regression discontinuity (RD) design, which allows us to examine the causal impact of electing an aligned candidate on security. Our RD estimates show that the election of an aligned candidate leads to a significant reduction in violence. Examining the role of local natural resource activity, i.e., mining, as an underlying mechanism, we find that this negative effect is driven by constituencies close to mining areas. These findings confirm the relevance of political alignment in delivering security within constituencies, and the potential role played by local mining activity. |
| Keywords: | Political alignment, Naxalite insurgency, security, India |
| JEL: | H11 H41 H56 D72 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2023-22&r=dev |
| By: | Claire Lepault (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | In developing countries, untreated sewage exposes people to alarming water pollution levels, yet there is limited knowledge about the effectiveness of wastewater treatment investments. I leverage the national inventory of sewage treatment plants in India and various granular datasets on river water quality measures, as well as geo-localized information on child births and deaths, to identify robust effects of wastewater treatment installations. To do so, I use estimators robust to staggered adoption within a difference-indifferences design and compare urban areas that started wastewater treatment from 2010 onwards and urban areas where such treatment was planned or under construction in 2020. I show that after starting wastewater treatment, levels of fecal coliforms decreased by 50%, and downstream mortality under the age of six months declined by 20%. A back-of the-envelope calculation suggests that starting wastewater treatment earlier-from 2010 onwards-in urban areas later selected into treatment-after 2020-would have prevented over 40, 000 child deaths in downstream sub-basins. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, wastewater treatment, water quality, infant mortality, India |
| Date: | 2023–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-04232407&r=dev |
| By: | Fuchs, Andreas; Gröger, André; Heidland, Tobias; Wellner, Lukas |
| Abstract: | In response to surging immigration pressure in Europe and the United States, Western policymakers advocate foreign aid as a means to fight the 'root causes' of irregular migration. This article provides the first global evidence of the effects of aid on migration preferences, migration flows, and possible underlying mechanisms, both in the short and longer term. We combine newly geocoded data on World Bank aid project allocation at the subnational level over the period 2008--2019 with exceptionally rich survey data from a sample of almost one million individuals across the entire developing world and data on migration and asylum seeker flows to high-income countries. Employing two distinct causal estimation strategies, we show that in the short term (after the announcement of a World Bank project and within two years after project disbursement), foreign aid improves individual expectations about the future and trust in national institutions in aid-receiving regions, which translate into reduced individual migration preferences and asylum-seeker flows. In the longer term (between three to five years after disbursement), foreign aid fosters improvements in individual welfare through poverty reduction and income increases, resulting in larger regular migration to high-income countries. Our findings show that aid can cause a short-lived reduction in migration aspirations, except in fragile Sub-Saharan African contexts where aid appears largely ineffective. In contrast, foreign aid enhances individual capabilities over the longer term, contributing to greater regular migration, consistent with the 'mobility transition' theory. |
| Keywords: | Foreign aid, World Bank, aid effectiveness, international migration, asylum seeking, migration preferences, Gallup World Poll |
| JEL: | F22 F35 F53 H77 O15 O19 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:279785&r=dev |
| By: | Tafese, Tevin; Lay, Jann; Van Tran |
| Abstract: | Vietnam has integrated into global value chains through the establishment of special economic zones (SEZs). This paper examines the local labour-market impacts of this programme, building on a unique dataset of SEZs in combination with labour force survey (LFS) data. Using historical satellite imagery, we trace the built-up area of SEZs over time to construct a continuous measure of SEZ exposure, which we link to the LFSs at the districtyear level for 2013-2019. In a difference-in-differences design with continuous treatment, we find that SEZs have led to a rapid shift in employment from agriculture and services to manufacturing and to an improvement in the quality of employment through higher wages and more formal employment. Foreign firms drive these effects, but there are positive spillovers to workers in domestic firms in agriculture and services. The effects are particularly strong for women, and younger individuals with low and medium levels of education. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, Special Economic Zones, foreign direct investment, labour markets, structural change, informality |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J30 J80 O14 O17 O19 P33 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gigawp:279817&r=dev |
| By: | Marjan Petreski; Stefan Tanevski; Irena Stojmenovska |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how investment in environmentally sustainable practices impacts employment and labor productivity growth of firms in transition economies. The study considers labor skill composition and geographical differences, shedding light on sustainability dynamics. The empirical analysis relies on the World Bank-s Enterprise Survey 2019 for 24 transition economies, constructing an environmental sustainability index from various indicators through a Principal Components Analysis. To address endogeneity, a battery of fixed effects and instrumental variables are employed. Results reveal the relevance of environmental sustainability for both employment and labor productivity growth. However, the significance diminishes when addressing endogeneity comprehensively, alluding that any relation between environmentally sustainable practices and jobs growth is more complex and needs time to work. The decelerating job-creation effect of sustainability investments is however confirmed for the high-skill firms, while low-skill firms benefit from labor productivity gains spurred by such investment. Geographically, Central Europe sees more pronounced labor productivity impacts, possibly due to its higher development and sustainability-awareness levels as compared to Southeast Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.18989&r=dev |
| By: | Naveen Kumar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Dibyendu Maiti (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Emerging economies (EMEs) often ignore effective mitigation strategies for climate risks to prioritise growth acceleration. This paper shows that EMEs cannot sustain their economic growth trajectory due to the adverse impact of climate change on total factor productivity (TFP). Using a standard growth model, it demonstrates how temperature rise and variation from growing industrial emissions reduce capital productivity along with the damage to ecosystem services and labour productivity, adversely impacting total factor productivity (TFP). A cross-sectional augmented auto-regressive distributed lag model (CS-ARDL), which addresses the issues of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence with stochastic trends, has been applied to 21 EMEs over the period from 1990 to 2018 and reveals a strong negative impact of temperature rise on total factor productivity. Although EMEs have heterogeneous impacts across the countries depending upon their climatic zones and income levels, a one-degree increase in temperature, on average, decreases the TFP by approximately 3 per cent. It is much higher in the extreme climatic zones and less developed EMEs. JEL Code: O47, Q50, O44 |
| Keywords: | TFP, Temperature Shocks, Panel CS-ARDL, Emerging markets |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:342&r=dev |
| By: | Anda DAVID; Gibson MUDIRIZA; Joanna GROTTE; Ariane DE LANNOY; Murray LEIBBRANDT |
| Abstract: | Assessing the labour market situation for young people is a critical area of research that has attracted the attention of scholars and policymakers globally. However, understanding the complexity of the labour market for youth, particularly in developing countries, requires a comprehensive, multidimensional approach. We address this need by developing a Youth Labour Market Index (YLMI) for South Africa, incorporating ten indicators that capture the unique youth labour market situation from various perspectives. Drawing on nationally representative data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the period 2013-2023, the YLMI provides a nuanced understanding of the labour market for 15-35-year-olds, and further allows for the identification of variations in the labour market’s functionality for various subgroups of the youth population. The study reveals alarmingly low YLMI scores for South Africa and its nine provinces, which have decreased over time. Significant gender and rural-urban disparities in the distribution of the YLMI scores are observed, and the YLMI scores exhibit an unequal spatial distribution, with lower values concentrated in provinces in former homeland areas. Further analysis reveals that the working conditions and education dimensions are the primary contributors to the low YLMI score, highlighting their role as major drivers of the underperforming youth labour market. Specifically, relative unemployment, skills mismatch, vulnerable employment, and lack of secondary education are the key indicators contributing to the low YLMI scores, with vulnerable employment being particularly critical. These results highlight that the South African labour market for youth is highly dysfunctional and has worsened over time. A defunct labour market entrenches inequality by contributing to further unemployment, pointing to an urgent need for policymakers to address the deteriorating situation. The YLMI provides a valuable tool for informing and targeting the necessary policies and interventions to promote a well-functioning labour market for youth. |
| Keywords: | Afrique du Sud |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2023–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en15919&r=dev |
| By: | Moreno-Ardila, Angie Natalia (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | En esta investigación exploro el efecto de un choque migratorio sobre el comportamiento del equilibrio del mercado de crédito formal en el país receptor. En particular, estudio el choque migratorio desde Venezuela sobre las dinámicas del crédito formal en los municipios de Colombia. Considero dos estrategias de identificación: aíslo variación exógena de los flujos migratorios utilizando un instrumento de tipo Bartik y un modelo de Diferencias-en- Diferencias. Encuentro que la llegada de venezolanos redujo el valor de la cartera de crédito en los municipios receptores. Por un lado, un aumento de una desviación estándar en los flujos predichos disminuye el valor total de los desembolsos en 3, 2 por ciento. Por otro lado, en los municipios de alta migración, después de la intensificación del choque migratorio en 2015 la cartera de crédito disminuye en promedio 7, 6 por ciento. Exploro dos mecanismos por los cuales la migración afecta el equilibrio del mercado de crédito: el efecto de la percepción de riesgo e incertidumbre en el nivel de riesgo efectivo de la cartera de crédito; y el efecto de un choque a la demanda de migrantes a causa de un programa de amnistía otorgado en 2018. |
| Keywords: | Migración; Sistema financiero; Crédito. |
| JEL: | F22 G21 O15 O16 |
| Date: | 2023–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:020941&r=dev |
| By: | Suescún Salazar, Cecilia (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | El alcance mundial de la violencia contra las mujeres hace que caracterizar los entornos que afectan la probabilidad de ser víctima de la violencia sea esencial para el diseño de políticas que busquen erradicar este comportamiento. Esta investigación examina el impacto de una mejora del acceso a la electricidad en la violencia intrafamiliar contra las mujeres. Usando la entrada en operación de subestaciones eléctricas entre 2011 y 2019 como fuente de variación exógena que genera un mejor acceso a la electricidad, encuentro que esta mejora en el acceso se asocia con un aumento de las tasas de reportes de violencia intrafamiliar, violencia de pareja y violencia contra niñas y adolescentes por parte de Medicina Legal. Adicionalmente, presento evidencia a favor de que este aumento se debe a un incremento de la probabilidad de denuncia por parte de las mujeres y no a un aumento en la violencia de género, en la violencia en general o en la presencia del estado. Además, usando datos a nivel individual entre 2005 y 2010, muestro evidencia sugestiva a favor del aumento en el empoderamiento femenino como un posible mecanismo detrás de estos resultados. |
| Keywords: | violencia; intrafamiliar; violencia; de; pareja; electrificación. |
| JEL: | J12 J16 O13 O18 |
| Date: | 2023–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:020938&r=dev |