nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2023‒02‒27
thirteen papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. Mining for Peace By Roland Hodler; Paul Schaudt; Alberto Vesperoni
  2. The unintended environmental effect of a climate change adaptation strategy: evidence from the Colombian coffee sector By Helo Sarmiento, Juliana; Pirelo-Ríos, Ana; Muñoz-Mora, Juan Carlos
  3. Closing Peru's Ethnic Gaps Amidst Sustained Economic Growth By Mr. Gonzalo Salinas; Yuri Zamora; Carlos Chavez
  4. Locust Infestations and Individual School Dropout: Evidence from Africa By Abigial O. Asare; Bernhard Christopher Dannemann; Erkan Goeren
  5. Agricultural intensification in Ethiopia: Patterns, trends, and welfare impacts By Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw Tadesse; Wolle, Abdulazize
  6. Mineral resources and the salience of ethnic identities By Nicolas Berman; Mathieu Couttenier; Victoire Girard
  7. Coconut productivity in the Caribbean: Relational value chains in traditional farming By Nenci, Silvia; Pietrobelli, Carlo; De Angelis, Marina; Manson, Hernan
  8. Trade liberalisation, market behaviour and food security: Evidence from Tanzania By Christian Estmann
  9. Effects of weather and food market risks on household agriculture-nutrition linkage: Micro-level insights from India By Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Saroj, Sunil; Kumar, Anjani
  10. Gender Gaps and Family Policies in Latin America By Estefanía Galván; Cecilia Parada; Martina Querejeta; Soledad Salvador
  11. Identity conflict, ethnocentrism and social cohesion By Matteo Sestito
  12. Impacts of the Great Green Wall projects on children’s health: Evidence from Nigeria By Pauline Castaing; Antoine Leblois
  13. Internal Migration and Energy Poverty By Leonard Le Roux; Johanna Choumert-Nkolo

  1. By: Roland Hodler; Paul Schaudt; Alberto Vesperoni
    Abstract: The energy transition increases the demand for minerals from ethnically diverse, conflict-prone developing countries. We study whether and where mining is possible in such countries without raising the risk of civil conflict. We proceed in three steps: First, we propose a theoretical model to predict the occurrence and location of conflict events on the territory of a country based on the spatial distribution of ethnic groups and resource rents. Second, we verify the predictive power of this model using granular spatial data from Sierra Leone and confirm its broader applicability using less granular data from a sample of eight West African countries. Third, we employ our framework to simulate the potential impact of new (planned and unplanned) mining projects in Sierra Leone. A crucial insight is that new mining projects do not necessarily translate into more conflict but may pacify the country under the right conditions and the right policies.
    Keywords: civil conflict, ethnic conflict, natural resources, mining
    JEL: D74 D82 L72 O13 Q34
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Helo Sarmiento, Juliana; Pirelo-Ríos, Ana; Muñoz-Mora, Juan Carlos
    Abstract: Climate change is a major threat to agricultural productivity in developing countries. In this paper, we explore the unintended environmental effects of an adaptation policy that conditioned credit programs for the renewal of coffee crops on the use of pest-resistant varieties. We use the case of the Colombian coffee sector, which was severely affected by extreme rainfall events and pest proliferation from 2010–2011. In response, the National Federation of Coffee Growers (NFCG) changed its policy to protect farmers from future weather shocks by conditioning renewal credits to the use of pest-resistant seeds. We exploit the timing of the policy and a novel data set that includes coffee farms’ productive characteristics matched with satellite tree cover data to analyze its environmental effect. We find that conditioning renewal credits on a seed change decrease tree cover in treated coffee growers by 390 m2. If we extend this result to all treated farms in our sample, the total loss increases to 1, 031 (10.31 million m2). We calculate that this average loss in tree coverage on treated farms translates into a release of 61, 912 tons of carbon.
    Keywords: Agricultura, Cambio climático, Desarrollo rural,
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Mr. Gonzalo Salinas; Yuri Zamora; Carlos Chavez
    Abstract: We analyze the recent evolution of ethnic economic inequality in Peru, a major source of social discontent in the country. Household survey data indicates that recent decades of high output growth also witnessed a substantial narrowing of socioeconomic gaps among ethnicities. Most notably, the Mestizo ethnic group surpassed the White group in income per capita, and Native American also experienced a relative improvement. Mincerian regression analysis suggests that the main contributors to these developments were rural-to-urban migration and increased education. Based on our statistical findings, we propose enhancing education and other public services, increasing government revenues, lowering informality, and promoting competition as the main public policies that could accelerate the ongoing narrowing of ethnic gaps.
    Keywords: Income Inequality; Informal Economy; Poverty; Welfare.; household survey data; labor income; Earnings function; gaps narrow; regression analysis; Income; Income distribution; Public employment; East Asia; Caribbean
    Date: 2022–09–09
  4. By: Abigial O. Asare (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Bernhard Christopher Dannemann (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Erkan Goeren (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of desert locust infestations on school enrollment of children and young adults between 3 and 24 years of age. We combine individual and household survey data from the 2005-2019 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program with data on the spatial distribution of locust events in Africa. We show that months of exposure to locust infestations have a negative and statistically significant impact on individual schooling status. We find that individuals from farming households are affected more negatively by locust infestations than individuals from non-farming households. We also find that individuals from poorer farming households have a higher school dropout rate than individuals from wealthier farming households, highlighting the role of negative income shocks as a possible transmission mechanism for the effects of desert locust events. Our results also show that the estimated effect is amplified by the household’s head educational status. A series of additional robustness tests further corroborate our main findings. We provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of a permanent 1.5 C rise in global temperature on the frequency of locust events and possible implications for schooling outcomes over time. The results show that a 1.5 C rise in temperature will decrease accumulated years of schooling by about 1.2 years over a period of 10 years.
    Keywords: Desert Locust; Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program; School Enrollment;Income Shocks; Current Schooling; Farmers; Africa
    Date: 2023–02
  5. By: Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw Tadesse; Wolle, Abdulazize
    Abstract: Ethiopia has made substantial efforts in the last three decades to increase agricultural productivity through modern input intensification and stimulate overall economic growth. Despite the high growth rates in recent decade, Ethiopia’s overall intensification and yield levels remained below what is considered optimal. This study examines the patterns, trends, and drivers of agricultural intensification and productivity growth during the recent decade (2012 - 2019) using three rounds of representative household data collected from the four main agriculturally important regions of the country. The descriptive results indicate a positive trend in both the adoption rate and intensity of inputs and output, albeit from a low base compared to other contexts and with considerable heterogeneity by access to information, rainfall levels and variability, labor, soil quality, remoteness, among others. The econometric results show significant association between intensification, yield growth, household dietary diversity (a proxy measure for food and nutrition security), and consumer durables. However, the results on the association between current yield levels and per capita consumption expenditures are mixed (i.e., while an increase in cereal yield only improve food consumption expenditures, an increase in cash crops yield mainly improve non-food consumption expenditures). In sum, while the increasing input intensification and the resulting yield gains are associated with improvement in household diets and consumer durables, it falls short to have strong impact on incomes (as measured by total consumption expenditures), indicating that more efforts have to be made to see meaningful impacts on higher order outcomes. Additional welfare improving productivity gains through increased input intensifications may require investments to put in place appropriate fertilizer blends linked with localized soil nutrient requirements, investments to generate locally suited improved seeds and appropriate mechanisms to reach farmers, ways to mitigate production (rainfall) risk, and investments to remodel Ethiopia’s extension system to provided much needed technical support to farmers on production methods.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; agriculture; agricultural productivity; agricultural transformation; cash crops; cereal crops; consumption patterns; dietary diversity; econometrics; farmers; fertilizers; fertilizer formulations; food security; growth; households; income; input output analysis; labour; nutrition; nutrition security; productivity; production methods; rain; rainfall patterns; seeds; soil; soil quality; statistical methods; variance; welfare; welfare economics; yield factors; yield potential; agricultural intensification; modern input intensification
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Nicolas Berman (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Mathieu Couttenier (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Victoire Girard (NOVA SBE - NOVA - School of Business and Economics - NOVA - Universidade Nova de Lisboa = NOVA University Lisbon)
    Abstract: This paper shows how ethnic identities may become more salient due to natural resources extraction. We combine individual data on the strength of ethnic-relative to national-identities with geo-localized information on the contours of ethnic homelands and on the timing and location of mineral resources exploitation in 25 African countries, from 2005 to 2015. Our strategy takes advantage of several dimensions of exposure to resources exploitation: time, spatial proximity, and ethnic proximity. We find that the strength of an ethnic group identity increases when mineral resource exploitation in that group's historical homeland intensifies. We argue that this result is at least partly rooted in feelings of relative deprivation associated with the exploitation of the resources. We show that such exploitation has limited positive economic spillovers, especially for members of the indigenous ethnic group; and that the link between mineral resources and the salience of ethnic identities is reinforced among members of powerless ethnic groups, and groups with strong baseline identity feelings or living in poorer areas, or areas with a history of conflict. Put together, these finding suggest a new dimension of the natural resource curse: the fragmentation of identities, between ethnic groups and nations.
    Keywords: identity, ethnicity, natural resources
    Date: 2022–07–14
  7. By: Nenci, Silvia; Pietrobelli, Carlo; De Angelis, Marina; Manson, Hernan
    Abstract: In this paper, we exploit the new evidence derived from two original farm-level surveys in Jamaica and Guyana, to deepen our understanding of coconut production in the Caribbean region. We innovate on more traditional studies as we include into the analysis not only farm-level variables, but also some characteristics of the communities where farmers operate, the support they obtain from local and foreign organizations, and the organization of the value chain, in particular the relationships they develop with agents and buyers. Our analysis shows that the type of workforce, whether occasional or permanent, and the existence of an irrigation scheme influence coconut productivity in Guyana and Jamaica. Primary education contributes to productivity to a larger extent than higher education. Support from organizations, both international and the Coconut Industry Board is also positively associated to productivity. In addition, selling to agents offers a positive productivity premium, probably due to the opportunity agents offer to get relevant information and technology. Thus, traces of a simple "relational" value chain, with a positive and useful role for interactions and exchange of tacit knowledge from buyers and agents, emerge from our study.
    Keywords: Coconut, productivity, Relational value chains, Caribbean countries
    JEL: D24 O13 Q12 O54
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Christian Estmann (University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: The increasing dependency on food imports for food security in the Global South implies a higher vulnerability to trade shocks. Trade barriers, such as export restrictions on stable food crops, are commonly used by developing countries in times of crisis. Surges in international food prices raise the real incomes of the farmers selling food while hurting the net food consumers. Trade restrictions may stabilise the domestic availability and price of food for net consumers in the short run. However, the question remains how liberalisation after a long period of ad-hoc export restriction influences rural producers. This working paper examines the effects of lifting a maize export ban on farmers’ food security and market behaviour in Tanzania. Using data from the National Panel Surveys over multiple waves, the study employs a difference-in-difference methodology to analyse the association at the household and district level. The results suggests that farmers who sold maize under the ban reduced their maize production and shifted to other stable crops, becoming less commercialised and disconnected from the market after liberalisation. A borderline significant negative association on household-level dietary diversity and quality is observed in regards to food security.
    Keywords: Food Security, Export Ban, Food Trade, Tanzania, Market Integration
    Date: 2023–01–30
  9. By: Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Saroj, Sunil; Kumar, Anjani
    Abstract: Agriculture-nutrition linkages in developing countries remain complex and continue evolving as weather and market risks intensify due to climate change and other geopolitical and socioeconomic factors. Knowledge gaps remain regarding the exact interrelationship among these dimensions of agriculture-nutrition linkages. This study aimed to partly fill this knowledge gap by assessing how the associations between home production of various food groups and household/individual level nutritional outcomes are affected by weather anomalies and price risks of these food groups in the market, using panel data from India. Our results indicate that, generally, the associations between home production and nutritional outcomes are greater under more normal weather, with rainfall and temperature during the production season being closer to the historical median, potentially because of greater productivity realized and sufficient harvest that can be consumed throughout the year. The associations are also greater when households face greater market price fluctuations of food commodities conditional on the distance to the market, potentially because such price risks lead to reduced food purchases from the market. These effects generally hold not only during the average month but also during the lean month, indicating robustness against seasonality. These results also hold more consistently in remote areas than in areas closer to the market. Overall, our results suggest that efforts to promote nutrition-sensitive agriculture in developing countries should also consider evolving patterns of weather risks and agrifood market price risks to improve their effectiveness.
    Keywords: INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; weather; markets; risk; agriculture; nutrition; prices; seasonality; data; panel data; agriculture-nutrition linkage
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Estefanía Galván (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Cecilia Parada (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Martina Querejeta (Universidad de la República (Uruguay)); Soledad Salvador (Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios sobre el Desarrollo, Uruguay)
    Abstract: Gender equality in the labor market remains a difficult challenge in Latin America and recent literature shows that child penalties play an important role in explaining these gaps. While policies to address gaps related to parenthood were introduced in recent decades, evidence of its effects is still scarce. This paper presents comparable evidence on the adoption of family legislation in 15 Latin American countries and discusses its relationship with the evolution of the gender labor gaps and the prevailing gender norms. We document that from 2000 to 2019 almost all countries increased the weeks covered by family leaves. Following a similar approach to that of Olivetti and Petrongolo (2017), exploiting the variations over time and controlling for country and year-fixed effects, we find that the extension of maternity and paternity leaves has a positive effect on female employment and contributes to reduce employment gaps, in particular in those countries which departed from a worse situation in terms of family policies coverage and which have more traditional perceptions of gender roles. On the other hand, our results suggest that in countries with more gender egalitarian perceptions, the extension of family leaves contributes to reduce the income gaps.
    Keywords: J13, J16, H53
    Date: 2022–08
  11. By: Matteo Sestito (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper uses a novel dataset on ethnic warfare to shed light on how conflict affects social identification and cohesion. A large body of anecdotal studies suggests that ethnic identities become more salient at times of conflict. Using data from eighteen sub-Saharan countries, I provide econometric evidence for such a claim. The effect of ethnic conflict on various measures of social cohesion is also investigated, uncovering a positive relationship between the two. The finding is understood as a result of the ethnocentric dynamics generated by conflict: as ethnic warfare increases ethnic identification, in-group cooperation follows suit. This parochial interpretation is further strengthened by the use of remote violence and the conditionality of conflict-induced pro-social behaviour on low levels of ethnic polarisation.
    Keywords: ethnic conflict, social cohesion, identity, Africa
    Date: 2023–01–23
  12. By: Pauline Castaing (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Antoine Leblois (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier)
    Abstract: The Great Green Wall is a crosscountry initiative to improve the environment of desertification areas in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper refers to the implementation of Great Green Wall projects in Nigeria to document the local impact of environmental restoration on children's food security and health. Our identification strategy uses two types of variation to capture these effects. The spatial variation comes from the heterogeneous exposure of the children to these new environmental restoration programs. The temporal variation comes from sudden changes between 2013 and 2016. Taking the height-to-age z-score as main outcome of interest, we find a significant and robust health improvement for children living next to community-based orchards whereas proximity to shelterbelts generates mixed impacts. Gains in health (+0.5 standard deviation in the height index) coexist with higher dietary diversity score for children living near orchards.
    Keywords: Environmental Restoration, Food security, Nigeria, Nutrition, Impact evaluation
    Date: 2023–01–26
  13. By: Leonard Le Roux (Sciences Po Department of Economics); Johanna Choumert-Nkolo (EDI Global)
    Abstract: This paper presents a first analysis of the relationship between rural-urban migration and energy poverty in South Africa, and to the authors' knowledge in Africa, using a nationally representative panel dataset. Using a dynamic difference in differences approach, energy poverty changes for both migrants and non-migrants are tracked over a ten-year period from 2008 to 2017. On average, moving to urban areas results in reductions in energy poverty for migrants themselves, with especially dramatic reductions in the use of traditional cooking fuels. Roughly one in five new urban arrivals move into informal shack dwellings where initial gains in energy access are negligible, but even for these migrants, the gains from migration grow over time. Effects on households, differences between male and female migrants, and other amenitities are also explored.
    Keywords: Energy Poverty, Migration, Urbanization, Panel data
    JEL: Q41 N50 D10 O15
    Date: 2023–02

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