nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2023‒01‒23
eleven papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross-Sections By Dang, Hai-Anh; Lanjouw, Peter F.
  2. Income Inequality in Guyana: Class or Ethnicity? New Evidence from Survey Data By Collin Constantine
  3. Evolution of Inequality in Nigeria: A Tale of Falling Inequality, Rising Poverty and Regional Heterogeneity By Chiwuzulum Odozi, John; Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth
  4. Does Access to Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Reduce Women Household Burden? Evidence from India By Su, Qinghe; Azam, Mehtabul
  5. Cash Transfers and Labor Supply: New Evidence on Impacts and Mechanisms By Cuong Viet Nguyen; Finn Tarp
  6. Illegal Migration and Weather Shocks: Evidence from Rural Mexico By Danza, Facundo; Lee, Eugink
  7. Estimating the Effects of Expanding Ultrasound Use on Sex Selection in India By Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude; Rosenblum, Daniel
  8. The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Marriage and Fertility: Evidence from Indian Census By Sengupta, Shruti; Azam, Mehtabul
  9. Deforestation, Institutions, and Property Rights: Evidence from land titling to indigenous peoples and local communities in Ecuador By Tanner, Michael; Ratzke, Leonie
  10. Child Growth and Refugee Status: Evidence from Syrian Migrants in Turkey By Murat Demirci; Andrew Foster; Murat Kırdar
  11. Comparing Protection Types in The Peruvian Amazon: Multiple-Use Protected Areas Did No Worse for Forests By Rico-Straffon, Jimena; Wang, Zhenhua; Pfaff, Alexander

  1. By: Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Lanjouw, Peter F. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Panel data are rarely available for developing countries. Departing from traditional pseudo-panel methods that require multiple rounds of cross-sectional data to study poverty mobility at the cohort level, we develop a procedure that works with as few as two survey rounds and produces point estimates of transitions along the welfare distribution at the more disaggregated household level. Validation using Monte Carlo simulations and real cross-sectional and actual panel survey data— from several countries, spanning different income levels and geographical regions—perform well under various deviations from model assumptions. The method could also inform investigation of other welfare outcome dynamics.
    Keywords: transitory and chronic poverty, income mobility, consumption, cross sections, synthetic panels, household surveys
    JEL: C53 D31 I32 O15
    Date: 2022–12
  2. By: Collin Constantine (Girton College, University of Cambridge)
    Abstract: This paper utilises recent survey data to estimate income inequality in Guyana from 1990 to 2021. It finds that class-based inequality exceeds ethnic income inequality, and the latter is more pronounced in the top 10 percent of the population. The over-representation of Indo- and Indigenous-Guyanese in the top decile increases class inequality within these groups because Afro- and Mixed-Guyanese are over-represented in the middle 40 and bottom 50 percent of the population. Thus, the magnitude of ethnic income differences violates the principle of distributive justice. The paper tentatively concludes that fiscal policy is the main explanation of the inequality dynamics, for example, the reduction of the middle class' share of income in 2017. Overall, the evidence indicates that intra-class competition for ethnic dominance of the top decile can account for inter-ethnic conflict, as politicians invest in ethnic prejudice and rivalry to weaken inter-class competition and strengthen the intra-class contest.
    Keywords: Guyana, class-based inequality, ethnic income inequality, distributive justice
    JEL: D31 D63 J15 N36
    Date: 2022–12
  3. By: Chiwuzulum Odozi, John (Ajayi Crowther University); Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth (Agnes Scott College)
    Abstract: Recent research on Nigeria indicates declining income inequality. In contrast, anecdotal evidence suggests that only the upper class has benefited from economic growth in Nigeria over time. The disconnect between these findings and anecdotal evidence, and the limitation in how inequality was estimated in the past literature are the motivation for our research. First, we consider if inequality decreased in Nigeria between 2010 and 2018. We then explore how changes in inequality relate to changes in consumption and poverty. In addition, we examine whether there has been convergence in inequality and consumption across regions over this period. Our last question is focused on identifying the sources/factors contributing to inequality in Nigeria over time. Leveraging data from the four waves of the Nigeria General Household Panel Survey (GHS) and carefully measuring inequality using consumption expenditure, our results suggest that inequality has decreased and median consumption expenditure increased. At the same time, poverty incidence and severity increased precipitously. Our findings suggest convergence in estimated inequality by regions but we do not find evidence of convergence across regions in consumption or poverty levels. We also find that durable goods expenditures are the biggest contributor to inequality across expenditure sources. Finally, our results suggest that education and living in an urban area are significant contributors to inequality but their effects have declined over time.
    Keywords: inequality, Gini, Nigeria, income distribution, poverty, regional disparities
    JEL: D31 I32 O15 O10
    Date: 2022–12
  4. By: Su, Qinghe (Oklahoma State University); Azam, Mehtabul (Oklahoma State University)
    Abstract: Using the nationally representative Indian Time Use Survey, we study whether the use of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as cooking fuel affects the time spent in cooking and employment activities for Indian rural women. We instrument use of LPG by a leave-one-out spatial instrument constructed by taking the average level of LPG use in the village where the average is calculated leaving the concerned household. We find no impact of LPG on the probability of women participating in cooking activities. However, use of LPG reduces (increases) time spent in cooking (employment) activities. We also find evidence of rebound effect where use of LPG leads to marginally more cooking events in a day. We find that LPG impact on time spent in cooking and employment is mostly driven by married women.
    Keywords: access to LPG, time use, instrument variable, women, India
    JEL: J22 O12 O13 O33
    Date: 2022–12
  5. By: Cuong Viet Nguyen (International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Viet Nam; and Mekong Development Research Institute, Hanoi, Viet Nam); Finn Tarp (University of Copenhagen, Denmark)
    Abstract: We study the impact of a national cash transfer program in Vietnam on labor supply using large household surveys and a regression-discontinuity design based on discontinuity in age eligibility. We do not find evidence of a disincentive effect of the cash transfer on labor supply for adults aged 15-64. More importantly, we find robust evidence that the transfer program causes the adults to move from self-employed non-farm work to wage-paying jobs. A likely mechanism is that the transfer program reduces the labor force participation of older people, and they help housework and childcare for younger adults to have wage-paying jobs.
    Keywords: Cash transfer, social security, employment, labor market participation, Vietnam
    JEL: J22 N35 H55
    Date: 2023–01–04
  6. By: Danza, Facundo; Lee, Eugink
    Abstract: We study the effect of weather shocks on legal and illegal migration from rural Mexico to the US. First, we find that shocks in the wet season on precipitation and temperature increase migration. The increment is entirely driven by illegal migrants. Second, we propose a mechanism to explain this result: the effect of weather on agricultural production. We find that shocks on precipitation and temperature decrease total harvested land and corn production. Third, we show that young and unwealthy workers are more sensitive to weather shocks. Lastly, we use climate projections to have a first glance on the impact that climate change will have on migration. We find that a shift of the size of climate change would double the number of illegal migrants. Since climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of weather shocks, our findings are increasingly relevant.
    Keywords: Agricultura, Cambio climático, Evaluación de impacto,
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Rosenblum, Daniel (Dalhousie University)
    Abstract: The liberalization of the Indian economy in the 1990s led to an unprecedented increase in the availability of prenatal ultrasound technology. In this paper, we analyze the differential spread of ultrasound in India at the state level over a ten-year period (1999 to 2008) and the consequences for the prevalence of sex-selective abortion. Omitting the Southern Indian states, which had the fastest increase in ultrasound use and little sex selection, we find that higher levels of ultrasound use within a state are positively associated with the probability that a child is born male. This increased likelihood of having a male child is only found for children with no older brothers, i.e. births most likely to be affected by sex selection. The positive relationship between state-level ultrasound use and having a male child can be found across various subsamples: urban and rural, older and younger mothers, mothers with high and low education. The estimates are robust to including linear cohort-year time trends and prenatal health care controls.
    Keywords: ultrasound, technology adoption, gender discrimination, son preference, sex-selective abortion, India
    JEL: J13 J16 O1
    Date: 2022–12
  8. By: Sengupta, Shruti (Oklahoma State University); Azam, Mehtabul (Oklahoma State University)
    Abstract: Using a district-level panel constructed from five waves of decennial Indian censuses covering 1971-2011, we examine the medium-term (1991-2001) and long-term (1991-2011) impacts of the 1991 Indian trade liberalization on marriage and fertility rates among young women aged 15-34 years. We exploit the fact that countrywide tariff reductions varied across industries creating exogenous local labor market shocks based on the initial employment composition of the district. We find heterogeneous results across urban and rural areas. We find that urban areas of the districts that experienced larger tariff cuts experienced relative increase in marriage rate compared to the districts that experienced smaller tariff cuts. Moreover, tariff cuts positively affect the workforce participation among both young men and women in urban areas. However, there is no impact of tariff cuts on marriage rate or workforce participation among young for rural areas. In contrast, tariff cuts reduced fertility rate mostly in rural areas.
    Keywords: marriage, fertility, trade liberalization
    JEL: J12 J13 O12
    Date: 2022–12
  9. By: Tanner, Michael; Ratzke, Leonie
    Abstract: Deforestation is a matter of pressing global concern, contributing to declining ecosystem services, biodiversity loss, and ultimately climate change through growing emissions. We evaluate the effect of assigning property rights to indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) in coastal Ecuador on deforestation and the role polycentric institutions play in policy effectiveness. Informed by a theoretical model, we employ causal methods to 1) evaluate changes in forest coverage for the first 12 years of policy adoption, and 2) evaluate the effect of the presence of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) on policy permanence. We find that assigning property rights to IPLCs significantly decreases mangrove deforestation and that the presence of NGOs funded by foreign aid significantly increases the probability of policy adoption and permanence. We assess the positive development implications of the policy concerning local fisheries provisioning and the role of international aid in achieving environmental outcomes. Our work highlights the importance of IPLCs and civil society as actors for sustainable land stewardship in future climate policy.
    Keywords: Ambiente, Políticas públicas, Pueblos nativos,
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Murat Demirci (Department of Economics, Koç University); Andrew Foster (Department of Economics and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University); Murat Kırdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University, Bebek, Istanbul 34342, Turkey and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University)
    Abstract: This study examines disparities in health and nutrition among native and Syrian-refugee children in Turkey. With a view toward understanding the need for targeted programs addressing child well-being among the refugee population, we analyze, in particular, the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS). The TDHS is one of few data sets providing representative data on health and nutrition for a large refugee and native population. We find no evidence of a difference in infant or child mortality between refugee children born in Turkey and native children. However, refugee infants born in Turkey have lower birthweight and ageadjusted weight and height than native infants. When we account for a rich set of birth and socioeconomic characteristics that display substantial differences between natives and refugees, the gaps in birthweight and age-adjusted height persist, but the gap in age-adjusted weight disappears. Although refugee infants close the weight gap at the mean over time, the gap at the lower end of the distribution persists. The rich set of covariates we use explains about 35% of the baseline difference in birthweight and more than half of the baseline difference in current height. However, even after that, refugee infants’ average birthweight is 0.17 standard deviations (sd) lower and their current height is 0.23 sd lower. These gaps are even larger for refugee infants born prior to migrating to Turkey, suggesting that remaining deficits reflect conditions in the source country prior to migration rather than deficits in access to maternal and child health services within Turkey
    Keywords: Syrian refugees, birthweight, anthropometric measures, forced displacement, Turkey
    JEL: J61 O15 F22 R23 R58
    Date: 2022–12
  11. By: Rico-Straffon, Jimena; Wang, Zhenhua; Pfaff, Alexander
    Abstract: Protected areas (PAs), which restrict economic activities, are the leading land and marine policy for ecosystem conservation. Most contexts feature different types of protection that vary in their stringency of management. Using spatially detailed panel data for 1986-2018, we estimate PAs’ impacts upon forests in the Peruvian Amazon. Which type of protection has greater impacts on the forest is ambiguous, theoretically, given potential for significant differences by type in siting and enforcement. We find that the less strict multiple-use PAs, that allow local livelihoods, do no worse for forests than strict PAs: each PA type holds off small loss spikes seen in unprotected forests; and multipleuse, if anything, do a bit better. This adds to evidence on the coexistence of private activities with conservation objectives.
    Keywords: Ambiente, Evaluación de impacto,
    Date: 2022

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