nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2023‒01‒09
twenty-two papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross-Sections By Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Lanjouw, Peter F.
  2. Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries By Headey, Derek D.; Ruel, Marie T.
  3. Does relative deprivation condition the effects of social protection programs on political support? Experimental evidence from Pakistan∗ By Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung
  4. Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia By Alfano, Marco; Cornelissen, Thomas
  5. Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years By Araujo, María Caridad; Macours, Karen
  6. Using Satellite Images to Measure Crop Productivity: Long-Term Impact Assessment of a Randomized Technology Adoption Program in the Dominican Republic By Salazar, Lina; Palacios, Ana Claudia; Selvaraj, Michael; Montenegro, Frank
  7. Climate Change and Political Participation: Evidence from India By Amirapu, Amrit; Clots-Figueras, Irma; Rud, Juan Pablo
  8. Violent conflict moderates food security impacts of agricultural asset transfers in Syria: A heterogeneity analysis using machine learning By Dorothee Weiffen; Ghassan Baliki; Tilman Brück
  9. Structural transformation and environmental externalities By Teevrat Garg; Maulik Jagnani; Hemant K. Pullabhotla
  10. Leaving no one behind: Urban poverty traps in Sub-Saharan Africa By Janz, Teresa; Augsburg, B.; Gassmann, Franziska; Nimeh, Zina
  11. How early nutrition and foundational cognitive skills interconnect? Evidence from two developing countries By Alan Sánchez; Marta Favara; Margaret Sheridan; Jere Behrman
  12. Money is not enough By Palacios Mora, Juan Carlos; de Crombrugghe, Denis; Gassmann, Franziska
  13. Worms or sugar? Mass deworming treatment doubles the probability to suffer from diabetes ten to fifteen years later. By Isabelle Chort; Olivier Dagnelie
  14. Interactions between Conditional Cash Transfers and Preferred Secondary Schools in Jamaica By Beuermann, Diether; Ramos Bonilla, Andrea; Stampini, Marco
  15. Impact of school consolidation on enrolment and achievement: Evidence from India By Vinitha Varghese
  16. The Effect of Brazil's Family Health Program on Cognitive Skills By Gunes, Pinar Mine; Tsaneva, Magda
  17. The impact of corruption on migration flows: evidence from Sub Saharan African countries By Bianca Balsimelli Ghelli; Elton Bequiraj; Marilena Giannetti
  18. Global Value Chain Participation and Labour Productivity in Manufacturing Firms in Viet Nam: Firm-Level Panel Analysis By Upalat Korwatanasakul; Tran Thi Hue
  19. Terrorism, Customs and fraudulent Gold exports in Africa By Fawzi Banao; Bertrand Laporte
  20. Rural-Urban Migration and the Re-organization of Agriculture By Raahil Madhok; Frederik Noack; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
  21. Maternal Dengue and Health Outcomes of Children By Koppensteiner, Martin Foureaux; Menezes, Livia
  22. The evolution of inequality in Mozambique: 1996/97-2019/20 By Giulia Barletta; Maimuna Ibraimo; Vincenzo Salvucci; Enilde Francisco Sarmento; Finn Tarp

  1. By: Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Lanjouw, Peter F.
    Abstract: Panel data are rarely available for developing countries. Departing from traditional pseudo-panel methods that require multiple rounds of cross-sectional data to study poverty mobility at the cohort level, we develop a procedure that works with as few as two survey rounds and produces point estimates of transitions along the welfare distribution at the more disaggregated household level. Validation using Monte Carlo simulations and real cross-sectional and actual panel survey data-from several countries, spanning different income levels and geographical regions-perform well under various deviations from model assumptions. The method could also inform investigation of other welfare outcome dynamics.
    Keywords: transitory and chronic poverty, income mobility, consumption, cross sections, synthetic panels, household surveys
    JEL: C53 D31 I32 O15
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Headey, Derek D.; Ruel, Marie T.
    Abstract: The 21st Century has been marked by increased volatility in food prices, with global price spikes in 2007-08, 2010-11, and again in 2021-22. The impact of food inflation on the risk of child undernutrition is not well understood, however. This study explores the potential impacts of food inflation on wasting and stunting among 1.27 million pre-school children from 44 developing countries. On average, a 5 percent increase in the real price of food increases the risk of wasting by 9 percent and severe wasting by 14 percent. These risks apply to young infants, suggesting a prenatal pathway, as well as to older children who typically experience a deterioration in diet quality in the wake of food inflation. Male children and children from poor and rural landless households are more severely impacted. Food inflation during pregnancy and the first year after birth also increases the risk of stunting for children 2-5 years of age. This evidence provides a strong rationale for interventions to prevent food inflation and mitigate its impacts on vulnerable children and their mothers.
    Keywords: inflation, income, food prices, wasting disease (nutritional disorder), stunting, child development, child growth, developing countries, diet quality, malnutrition, macroeconomics, agriculture, developing countries
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung
    Abstract: Could perceived relative economic standing affect citizens’ support for political leaders and insti tutions? We explore this question by examining Pakistan’s national unconditional cash transfer program, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP). Leveraging a regression discontinuity approach using BISP’s administrative data and an original survey experiment, we find that perceptions of relative deprivation color citizen reactions to social protection. When citizens do not feel relatively deprived, receiving cash transfers has little sustained effect on individuals’ reported level of support for their political system and its leaders. However, when citizens feel relatively worse off, those receiving cash transfers become more politically satisfied, while those denied transfers become more politically disgruntled. Moreover, the magnitude of the reduction in political support among non-beneficiaries is larger than the magnitude of the increase in po litical support among beneficiaries. This has important implications for our understanding of the political ramifications of rising perceived inequality.
    Keywords: TANZANIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, social protection, cash transfers, social safety nets, trust, households, gender, political participation, inequality, economics, social protection, egression discontinuity design, cash transfer, government trust, political psychology, Benazir Income Support Program (BISP),
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Alfano, Marco (Lancaster University); Cornelissen, Thomas (University of Essex)
    Abstract: Due to economic interconnectedness across regions, locally confined violent conflict may have welfare effects far beyond directly affected areas. This paper focuses on Somalia's al-Shabaab insurgency and investigates whether the food transportation network propagates the effects of violent conflict to distant locations. Combining granular geospatial information on agricultural areas, roads, and itineraries, we show that conflict along transportation routes significantly increases food prices at markets located hundreds of kilometers away. Standardized estimates amount to up to half the magnitude of the effect of rainfall. Negative effects of conflict on road traffic as measured by satellite images of light emissions point towards decreases in food transportation. Moreover, conflict decreases food security, nutrition, health, and education for households living in far-away market areas. This suggests that food prices act as a propagating mechanism that links ­– among others – human capital to far-away conflict. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that spatial spillovers add an additional 30% to the welfare cost of local conflict.
    Keywords: conflict, spillover effects, food security, health, education
    JEL: D74 I15 I25 Q18
    Date: 2022–11
  5. By: Araujo, María Caridad; Macours, Karen
    Abstract: In 1997, the Mexican government designed the conditional cash transfer program Progresa, which became the worldwide model of a new approach to social programs, simultaneously targeting human capital accumulation and poverty reduction. A large literature has documented the short and medium-term impacts of the Mexican program and its successors in other countries. Using Progresas experimental evaluation design originally rolled out in 1997-2000, and a tracking survey conducted 20 years later, this paper studies the differential long-term impacts of exposure to Progresa. We focus on two cohorts of children: i) those that during the period of differential exposure were in-utero or in the first years of life, and ii) those who during the period of differential exposure were transitioning from primary to secondary school. Results for the early childhood cohort, 18-20-year-old at endline, shows that differential exposure to Progresa during the early years led to positive impacts on educational attainment and labor income expectations. This constitutes unique long-term evidence on the returns of an at-scale intervention on investments in human capital during the first 1000 days of life. Results for the school cohort - in their early 30s at endline - show that the short-term impacts of differential exposure to Progresa on schooling were sustained in the long-run and manifested themselves in larger labor incomes, more geographical mobility including through international migration, and later family formation.
    Keywords: Conditional cash transfers;Long term impacts;Schooling;Mexico
    JEL: O15 N76 I2 J18
    Date: 2021–12
  6. By: Salazar, Lina; Palacios, Ana Claudia; Selvaraj, Michael; Montenegro, Frank
    Abstract: This study combines three rounds of surveys with remote sensing to measure long-term impacts of a randomized irrigation program in the Dominican Republic. Specifically, Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 satellite images are used to measure the causal effects of the program on agricultural productivity, measured through vegetation indices (NDVI and OSAVI). To this end, 377 plots were analyzed (129 treated and 248 controls) for the period from 2011 to 2019. Following a Differencein-Differences (DD) and Event study methodology, the results confirmed that program beneficiaries have higher vegetation indices, and therefore experienced a higher productivity throughout the post-treatment period. Also, there is some evidence of spillover effects to neighboring farmers. Furthermore, the Event Study model shows that productivity impacts are obtained in the third year after the adoption takes place. These findings suggest that adoption of irrigation technologies can be a long and complex process that requires time to generate productivity impacts. In a more general sense, this study reveals the great potential that exists in combining field data with remote sensing information to assess long-term impacts of agricultural programs on agricultural productivity.
    Keywords: Irrigation;Remote Sensing;Impact Evaluation;Agriculture
    JEL: Q00
    Date: 2021–09
  7. By: Amirapu, Amrit (University of Kent); Clots-Figueras, Irma (University of Kent); Rud, Juan Pablo (Royal Holloway, University of London)
    Abstract: We study the effects of extreme temperature shocks on political participation using data from Indian elections between 2009 and 2017. Taking advantage of localized, high-frequency data on land surface temperatures, we find that areas with greater cumulative exposure to extreme temperatures experience an increase in voter turnout and a change in the composition of the pool of candidates who stand for election. As a consequence, electoral outcomes are affected. We provide evidence that our results are driven by the negative effect of climate change on agricultural productivity. First, we show that the results are strongest in areas with a larger rural population. Second, we show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between temperatures and turnout which closely mirrors the relationship between temperatures and agricultural productivity. We also find that, following temperature shocks, winning candidates are more likely to have an agricultural background. Finally, we show that politicians with an agricultural background invest more in irrigation, which mitigates the effects of high temperatures, on both agricultural production and on turnout. Our paper provides new evidence about the ways in which political agents in developing countries (including both voters and candidates) may respond to climate change via political channels.
    Keywords: climate change, political economy, voter turnout
    JEL: O13 P48 Q54
    Date: 2022–11
  8. By: Dorothee Weiffen (ISDC - International Security and Development Center); Ghassan Baliki (ISDC - International Security and Development Center); Tilman Brück (ISDC - International Security and Development Center, Thaer-Institute, Humboldt University of Berlin, Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops)
    Abstract: Agricultural interventions are one of the key policy tools to strengthen the food security of households living in conflict settings. Yet, given the complex nature of conflict-affected settings, existing theories of change might not hold, leading to misinterpretation of the significance and magnitude of these impacts. How contextual factors, including exposure to conflict intensity, shape treatment effects remain broadly unconfirmed. To address this research gap, we apply an honest causal forest algorithm to analyse the short-term impacts of an agricultural asset transfer on food security. Using a quasi-experimental panel dataset in Syria, comparing treatment and control households two years after receiving support, we first estimate the average treatment effect, and then we examine how contextual factors, particularly conflict, shape treatment heterogeneity. Our results show that agricultural asset transfers significantly improve food security in the short-term. Moreover, exposure to conflict intensity plays a key role in determining impact size. We find that households living in moderately affected conflict areas benefited significantly from the agricultural intervention and improved their food security by up to 14.4%, while those living in no or high conflict areas did not. The positive effects were particularly strong for female–headed households. Our findings provide new insights on how violent conflict determines how households benefit from and respond to agricultural programming. This underscores the need to move away from one-size-fits-all agricultural support in difficult settings towards designing conflict-sensitive and inclusive interventions to ensure that no households are left behind.
    Keywords: Agricultural intervention, Asset transfers, Food security, honest causal forest, impact evaluation, machine learning, Syria, Violent conflict
    JEL: D10 D60 O12 O22 Q12
    Date: 2022–12
  9. By: Teevrat Garg; Maulik Jagnani; Hemant K. Pullabhotla
    Abstract: Even as policymakers seek to encourage economic development by addressing misallocation due to frictions in labor markets, the associated production externalities - such as air pollution - remain unexplored. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show access to rural roads increases agricultural fires and particulate emissions. Farm labor exits are a likely mechanism responsible for the increase in agricultural fires: rural roads cause movement of workers out of agriculture and induce farmers to use fire - a labor-saving but polluting technology - to clear agricultural residue or to make harvesting less labor-intensive. Overall, the adoption of fires due to rural roads increases infant mortality rate by 5.5% in downwind locations.
    Date: 2022–12
  10. By: Janz, Teresa (RS: GSBE MGSoG, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance); Augsburg, B.; Gassmann, Franziska (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, RS: GSBE MORSE, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 2, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 6); Nimeh, Zina (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 2, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 6, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 3)
    Abstract: Despite considerable achievements in the reduction of poverty over the last decades, poverty remains conspicuously high and profound. While fast urban population growth, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, has contributed to poverty reduction, new development challenges like the urbanisation of poverty emerge. This paper investigates the persistence of urban poverty within the theory of poverty traps among urban households in Nigeria and Tanzania. Using household panel data from the World Bank Living Standard Measurement Study, we test whether consumption-based poverty traps exist in these contexts. Our results show that initially poor households experience an increase in well-being over time, while richer households face a decline and remain vulnerable to falling back into poverty. However, a sticky consumption floor as well as divergence of the floor with the mean show that despite upward dynamics amongst the poor, some are being being left behind. Finally, we argue that improved urb an data is needed to identify the vulnerable middle, and to design structural policies preventing them from falling back into poverty.
    JEL: I32 P25 E21
    Date: 2022–12–02
  11. By: Alan Sánchez (Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE)); Marta Favara (University of Oxford); Margaret Sheridan (University of North Carolina); Jere Behrman (University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: We use unique data collected in Ethiopia and Peru as part of the Young Lives Study to investigate the relationship between early undernutrition and four foundational cognitive skills, the first two of which measure executive functioning: working memory, inhibitory control, long-term memory, and implicit learning. We exploit the rich longitudinal data available to control for potential confounders at the household level and for time-invariant community characteristics. We also exploit the availability of data for paired-siblings to obtain household fixed-effects estimates. Overall, we find robust evidence that stunting is negatively related with the development of executive functions, predicting reductions in working memory and inhibitory control by 12.6% and 5.8% of a standard deviation. Our results shed light on the mechanisms that explain the relationship between early nutrition and school achievement tests suggesting that good nutrition is an important determinant of children’s learning capacities.
    Keywords: foundational cognitive skills; early nutrition; executive functions; Ethiopia; Peru
    JEL: I15 I25 J24
    Date: 2022–12–16
  12. By: Palacios Mora, Juan Carlos (Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn); de Crombrugghe, Denis (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, RS: FSE DACS Mathematics Centre Maastricht, QE Econometrics); Gassmann, Franziska (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, RS: GSBE MORSE, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 2, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 6)
    Abstract: The effectiveness of cash transfer programs to foster social mobility in the medium and long run is still unclear. Using a RDD we found that after six years of exposure to the Ecuadorean cash transfer, living conditions of beneficiaries are worse off than non-beneficiaries. We argue that it is the mechanism to evaluate continuity that incentivizes households to remain poor. Continuity is evaluated every 4-6 years based solely on a proxy-means score and not on whether households are on a path towards escaping poverty. Furthermore, households do not know how the score pis estimated and their proximity to the cutoff. This creates uncertainty on the side of beneficiaries, who take long-term suboptimal decisions to maximize their short-term utility. We also estimate the effect of the old-age pension’s branch of the program, whose beneficiaries do not face uncertainty about their continuity, finding no negative effects for that branch.
    JEL: I38 H53 C14 D81
    Date: 2022–11–21
  13. By: Isabelle Chort (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Olivier Dagnelie (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Mass deworming has long been promoted as a cost-effective device to improve health status and educational attainment of children. Recent contributions suggest that they would in addition increase lifetime earnings of individuals. However, recent medical research emphasizes the role played by the gut microbiome and helminths in particular – colloquially termed worms – on the prevention of metabolic syndromes and inflammatory diseases including Type-2 diabetes. We use publicly available data from the Kenya Life Panel Survey (rounds 2 and 3) that follows a representative sample of children initially part of the Primary School Deworming Project randomized experiment 10 and 15 years after the intervention and study the impact of deworming on diabetes. We find that children who were enrolled in early treated schools and received two to three additional years of deworming treatment are twice more likely to declare suffering from diabetes 10 to 15 years later (n=31 for 6, 390 treated individuals) than individuals in the control group (n=7 for 3, 284 individuals). Our results are consistent with a protective effect of worm infection against diabetes and suggest potential adverse long-term health impacts of mass deworming administration. Given the cost of diabetes treatment in low and middle-income countries, the cost-benefit balance of mass deworming may need to be reevaluated.
    Keywords: deworming, diabetes, health, long-run impacts, Kenya
    Date: 2022–12–06
  14. By: Beuermann, Diether; Ramos Bonilla, Andrea; Stampini, Marco
    Abstract: We explore whether the academic benefit from attending a preferred secondary school differs between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the Jamaican Conditional Cash Transfer Program, Programme of Advancement through Health and Education (PATH). The academic outcomes assessed include end of secondary and post-secondary high-stakes examinations independently administered by the Caribbean Examinations Council. Among girls, receiving PATH benefits before secondary school enrollment does not influence the academic gains from attending a more selective school. However, boys who received PATH benefits prior to secondary school enrollment benefit significantly less from subsequently attending a more selective school with respect to comparable peers who did not receive PATH benefits. These results suggest negative dynamic interactions between PATH and selective secondary schools among boys.
    Keywords: Academic Performance;School Selectivity;PATH;Dynamic Interactions
    JEL: H52 H75 I21 I26 I28 I38
    Date: 2021–12
  15. By: Vinitha Varghese
    Abstract: I study the impact of school consolidation on enrolment and achievement, using its staggered roll-out in the Indian state of Rajasthan. Across the years 2014, 2016, and 2017, Rajasthan merged many of its grade 1-5 schools with grade 6-10 schools to create grade 1-10 'model' schools. Twenty-three per cent of government schools were eliminated in this education reform. Media reports suggested that consolidation led to declining enrolment levels and teacher lay-offs.
    Keywords: Children, Education, Enrolment, Schooling
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Gunes, Pinar Mine (University of Alberta); Tsaneva, Magda (Clark University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of Brazil's Family Health Program (Programa Saude da Familia, FHP) on cognitive skills of fifth-grade students. We use biennial data from national exams between 2007 and 2015, and variation in the FHP implementation date across municipalities, birth cohort, and test year to identify the effect of the program on language and mathematics test scores. We find that, in northern municipalities, students exposed to FHP at or prior to birth have 0.88 points higher language and 1.30 points higher mathematics test scores compared to those exposed to FHP in childhood. The estimated effects are intent-to-treat effects and correspond to increases of 0.021sd and 0.030sd in language and mathematics test scores. We use an event-study analysis demonstrating that the largest effects of FHP on cognitive skills are for those students exposed at or prior to birth, with trivial effects if exposed after birth. We do not find evidence for changes in parental investment behavior or child school attendance, which suggests that the effects are likely due to the direct impact of the program on child cognitive development.
    Keywords: early life interventions, cognitive skills, community healthcare, Brazil
    JEL: I15 I18 I21
    Date: 2022–12
  17. By: Bianca Balsimelli Ghelli; Elton Bequiraj; Marilena Giannetti
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of corruption on the migration flows from SSA countries to the OECD countries between 2000 and 2019. Fixed-effects and system GMM (generalized method of moments) estimation techniques are used to establish a relationship between emigration and corruption. The empirical results indicate that when corruption increases, migration flows also increase, where corruption is measured on a scale of 0 (not corrupt) to 100 (totally corrupt). Splitting the sample by income inequality suggests that increased inequality doesn't reduce the ability to emigrate. Indeed, below and above the threshold the results are the same. Finally, splitting the sample by corruption level suggests that a high level of corruption in the home country doesn't affect the migration decision.
    Keywords: Corruption; Migration; SSA countries
    JEL: F22 O55 D73
    Date: 2022–12
  18. By: Upalat Korwatanasakul (Waseda University, Japan); Tran Thi Hue (Department of Global Human Studies, Faculty of Literature, Kobe Women’s University, Japan)
    Abstract: This study describes the status of global value chains (GVCs) in Viet Nam and examines the roles of GVC participation and technology in enhancing labour productivity in manufacturing firms. The estimation method is a panel fixed-effect regression employing unique firm-level data matching the Vietnam Technology and Competitiveness Survey and Vietnam Enterprise Survey, 2009–2018. The findings show the positive effect of backward GVC participation when considering firm GVC participation status (i.e. whether they engage with backward linkages). However, when accounting for GVC participation degree (i.e. GVC participation index), the results show a stark contrast, revealing the negative effect of backward GVC participation on labour productivity. The results, therefore, partly reject the learning-to-learn hypothesis. On the other hand, regardless of GVC indicators, forward GVC participation positively impacts labour productivity, confirming the views of learning-by-exporting and learning-by-supplying. The findings also suggest the significance of research and development, digital technology, and foreign investment in enhancing labour productivity. Therefore, policies promoting forward GVC participation should be the priority, while policies to promote backward GVC participation should be well designed and accompanied by policies that ensure technology transfer and domestic technology development to avoid the trap of a subordinate role.
    Keywords: Global value chain participation; Labour productivity; Learning by-exporting; Learning-to-learn; Viet Nam
    JEL: F13 F14 F16 O19 O24
    Date: 2022–10–28
  19. By: Fawzi Banao (UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles); Bertrand Laporte (UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: The actions of terrorist groups destabilize border states and economies. The presence of mining activities, such as gold extraction, favors the illicit export of this ore to finance terrorist groups. Using COMTRADE data, we estimate gold customs fraud with mirror analysis (gold export missing) for 50 African countries between 2000 and 2019. We use ordinary least squares, two-stage least squares, generalized method of moments, and local impulse strategy in our empirical strategies to estimate the impact of terrorism on gold customs fraud. Our results suggest that states affected by terrorism must pay more attention to the trafficking of gold, as this is a valued mineral for terrorist groups. The response to conflict with terrorist groups cannot be solely military. The State must necessarily get the various state services to work together, particularly the army, the police, and customs. The institutionalization of this cooperation remains a real challenge for these states. Regarding customs administration efficiency, data analysis is at the core of customs modernization programs. Only internal and external trade data have been used in risk management systems. Cooperation with the armed forces must allow the acquisition of tools and skills to analyze other data sources, such as satellite data. Customs could then carry out all of its missions at the borders: collecting duties and taxes but also protecting the local/border economy and cutting off the funding sources for terrorist groups.
    Keywords: Customs fraud, Terrorism, Mirror analysis, Gold, Performance of customs administration
    Date: 2022–12–07
  20. By: Raahil Madhok (University of British Columbia); Frederik Noack (University of British Columbia); Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the response of agricultural production to rural labor loss during the process of urbanization. Using household microdata from India and exogenous variation in migration induced by urban income shocks interacted with distance to cities, we document sharp declines in crop production among migrant-sending households residing near cities. Households with migration opportunities do not substitute agricultural labour with capital, nor do they adopt new agricultural machinery. Instead, they divest from agriculture altogether and cultivate less land. We use a two-sector general equilibrium model with crop and land markets to trace the ensuing spatial reorganization of agriculture. Other non-migrant village residents expand farming (land market channel) and farmers in more remote villages with fewer migration opportunities adopt yield-enhancing technologies and produce more crops (crop market channel). Counterfactual simulations show that over half of the aggregate food production losses driven by urbanization is mitigated by these spillovers. This leads to a spatial reorganization in which food production moves away from urban areas and towards remote areas with low emigration.
    Date: 2022–10
  21. By: Koppensteiner, Martin Foureaux (University of Surrey); Menezes, Livia (University of Birmingham)
    Abstract: We study the effect of maternal dengue infections on birth outcomes using linked administrative records from Brazil estimating maternal fixed-effect specifications. In contrast to previous studies, we find robust evidence for the negative effect of dengue infections on birth weight (BW). The effect is particularly pronounced at lower parts of the BW distribution, with an increase of 15%, 67%, and 133% for low, very low, and extremely low BW, respectively. Maternal dengue also has negative health consequences beyond birth outcomes; we document large increases in children's hospitalisations and medical expenditures for up to three years after birth.
    Keywords: maternal dengue, birth outcomes, children hospitalisations
    JEL: I15 I18 J13
    Date: 2022–12
  22. By: Giulia Barletta; Maimuna Ibraimo; Vincenzo Salvucci; Enilde Francisco Sarmento; Finn Tarp
    Abstract: After decades of war, ending in 1992, Mozambique embarked on a path of sustained economic growth and substantial poverty reduction. However, these positive dynamics started to revert from 2015, with per capita growth rates getting close to zero and household real consumption reducing in all areas of the country. Meanwhile, inequality stagnated in the period 1996/97-2008/09, before markedly increasing afterwards. In this study, we analyse some of the most relevant indicators of inequality for Mozambique and their trends over the last 25 years.
    Keywords: Inequality, Consumption, Spatial inequality, Mozambique
    Date: 2022

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