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on Development |
| By: | Mihalyi, David; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | Africa's sovereign debt markets are not well understood, partly due to a lack of data. This paper introduces the Africa Debt Database (ADD), the most granular and comprehensive dataset on external borrowing by African governments thus far. Our project moves beyond existing aggregate datasets and instead releases information on individual loans and bonds, in particular on the financial terms of each instrument. Taken together, we cover nearly 7000 loans and bonds between 2000 and 2020, with a total volume of 644 billion USD. Using this data, we study Africa's record lending boom of the 2010s in detail. The debt boom was mainly driven by large sovereign bond issuances in London and New York, as well as growing lending by Chinese state-owned banks. The micro data also reveal a large variation in lending terms across countries, time, and creditors. Sovereign external bonds have interest rates of 6 percent, on average, Chinese banks charge 2-4 percent, and multilateral organizations just 1 percent. Strikingly, many governments in Africa simultaneously borrow large amounts from both private and official creditors, at vastly different rates. The large differences in debt servicing costs are indicative of a cross-creditor subsidy, as cheap concessional loans can be used to pay the high interest to private or Chinese creditors. |
| Keywords: | debt sustainability,debt composition,bond issuances |
| JEL: | E62 F34 H63 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2217&r= |
| By: | François Libois (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Marie Baland (CRED - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit - UP2 - Université Panthéon-Assas, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, University of Namur); Nicolas Delbart (LIED (UMR_8236) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPC - Université Paris Cité); Subhrendu Pattanayak (Duke University [Durham]) |
| Abstract: | Since 1993, Nepal has implemented one of the most ambitious and comprehensive program of decentralization of forest management in the world, which is widely considered a success story in terms of participatory management of natural resources. Using quasi-experimental methods, we first quantify the net gains in tree cover related to the program in the Hills and Mountains of Nepal, and describe their temporal evolution. We then discuss the mechanisms driving forest restoration, highlighting that, while community forestry played a role in increasing forest biomass and forest size, it also reduced demand pressures by altering energy choices. |
| Keywords: | Forest management,Community forestry,Nepal,Energy,Participatory development Forest management,Participatory development |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03597659&r= |
| By: | Salas-Ortiz, A.; |
| Abstract: | Using a life-course perspective and based on Roemer’s inequality of opportunity framework, the hypothesis of an accumulation and intergenerational transmission of ex-ante and ex-post inequality of opportunity in malnutrition is tested. This paper measures the evolution of inequalities in the light of the socioeconomic changes and the evolution of circumstances and efforts experienced by people born between 1983 and 1988 in Mexico. Using a combination of matching and re-weighting methods, a pseudo-birth-cohort is constructed and the effect of circumstances and efforts on inequality of opportunity is disentangled and measured across nutrition-related health outcomes. Results indicate that inequality of opportunity in malnutrition has been a persistent issue across the life course of the birth cohort and that lack of opportunities have been transmitted from parents to children. When disentangling the contribution of circumstances and efforts to inequality in malnutrition, we find that, on average, people’s circumstances explain 72% of the explained variation, whereas efforts account for only 28%. We find that circumstances are the main driver of inequality in undernutrition and no consistent evidence that efforts play a significant role in explaining variation in outcomes associated with overnutrition. The empirical results are relevant for reconsidering the classical assumptions behind the “economics of obesity†. |
| Keywords: | double burden of malnutrition; inequality of opportunity; matching and re-weighting; Mexico; |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:22/07&r= |
| By: | Narantungalag, Odmaa |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic impacts of the mining sector on household expenditures. Employing the difference-in-differences model and the Mongolia Household Socio-Economic Survey data from 2008 to 2016, I find that the mining activities benefited local residents. Specifically, mining activities increase household expenditures on food, health, and electricity, respectively, while households reduce their expenditures on education and other non-food items. Interestingly, illness did not increase in the resource-producing region, while educational attainment improved. The findings highlight that the positive impacts of the mining sector are likely to be higher than what is determined by traditional welfare measurements of income and consumption. I provide some anecdotal evidence that the changes in household expenditure patterns can be due to increased availability of health care services and educational facilities in the mining region. |
| Keywords: | Mining,Natural Resources,Regional Economy,Economic Development |
| JEL: | L72 O12 O13 Q32 R11 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1077&r= |
| By: | Alice Jar Rein Aung; Chun Yee Wong (IUJ Research Institutey, International University of University) |
| Abstract: | The Philippines implemented the free secondary education policy in 1988, which offers a natural experiment to explore the effects of maternal education on fertility and child mortality. Exploiting age-specific exposure to this educational reform through the use of fuzzy regression discontinuity design, this study finds that on average, there is an increase of 0.536 year of schooling in for the cohort of women who had been affected by the policy. Moreover, the results of this study reveal that increasing education by one year reduces 0.829 child born per woman, and decreases child mortality by 1.659%. The empirical evidence supports that increasing opportunities for women to enter and complete secondary education can reduce fertility rates and cause a significant decline in child mortality in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | maternal education, fertility, child mortality, regression discontinuity, the Philippines |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2022_02&r= |
| By: | Tanguy Bernard (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pia Naima DÄnzer; Markus Frölich; Andreas Landmann; Angelino Viceisza; Fleur Wouterse |
| Abstract: | Trust is considered an important factor for successful collective action in groups of smallholder farmers. A prime example is collective commercialization of agricultural produce through producer organizations. While previous research has focused on trust as an exogenous determinant of participation in groups, this article tests whether trust within existing groups can be improved using a training program. We conduct a cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Senegal to identify the effects of training members and/or leaders with respect to commercialization on intragroup trust. Our design allows identifying both direct treatment effects of having participated in the training and spillover effects on farmers who did not partake. Looking at different measures of trust in leaders' competence and motives and of trust in members, we find that participating in the training significantly enhances both trust in leaders and trust in members. For trust in leaders, we also find a strong spillover effect. Our findings suggest that relatively soft and noncostly interventions such as group training appear to positively affect trust within producer organizations. |
| Keywords: | rural producer organizations,Senegal,trust |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03564917&r= |
| By: | Cheng-Tao Tang (IUJ Research Institutey, International University of University); Chun Yee Wong (IUJ Research Institutey, International University of University); Ayush Batzorig |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the change in award criteria of a pronatalist program in the Mongolia that offers financial transfers to women achieving fertility goals at high parity birth. We implement a quasi-experiment strategy by forming treatment and control groups defined by time and child parity. We found positive effect of the program on fertility, and the fertility response is diminishing when the high fertility goal jumps from a lower one to a higher one. An extension of Barro–Becker fertility model with the inclusion of social norm can support our empirical finding. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Pro-natalist program; Social norm; Difference-in-differences; Mongolia |
| JEL: | J13 J18 H31 P23 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2022_01&r= |
| By: | Guilherme Strifezzi Leal (Universitat de Barcelona); Ã lvaro Choi (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Financial aid to college students has been widely implemented by governments in developed and emerging economies in an attempt to reduce the entry barriers to higher education (HE). Understanding the extent to which these policies enable access to HE is crucial in order to unravel the effectiveness of such investments on promoting human capital accumulation. In this paper, we address this issue by employing a difference-in-differences framework to investigate the impacts of the Prouni, a Brazilian federal program created in 2005 that grants full and partial college scholarships to students from low-income families. We provide causal evidence that, by 2007, the full Prouni scholarship had increased the odds of enrolling in HE by 37%, while the partial Prouni scholarship had increased these odds by 20%; and that every USD 100 million spent by the government with Prouni’s tax waivers, generated an approximate 0.5 percentage points increase in the HE enrolment rate of academic age individuals (or, equivalently, every USD 1,000 per student increased this rate in 1.3 percentage points). Also, our findings suggest that the impacts of the grants on access to HE were greater for women and for non-white individuals. |
| Keywords: | Higher education participation, income-based scholarships, emerging economies, difference-in-differences. |
| JEL: | I22 I24 I25 I28 H52 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:420web&r= |
| By: | Paola Mallia (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Adoption of improved seed varieties has the potential to lead to substantial pro ductivity increases in agriculture. However, only 36 percent of the farmers that grow an improved maize variety report doing so in Ethiopia. This paper provides the first causal evidence of the impact of misperception in improved maize varieties on farm ers' production decisions, productivity and profitability. We employ an Instrumental Variable approach that takes advantage of the roll-out of a governmental program that increases transparency in the seed sector. We find that farmers who correctly classify the improved maize variety grown experience large increases in inputs usage (urea, NPS, labor) and yields, but no statistically significant changes in other agricul tural practices or profits. Using machine learning techniques, we develop a model of interpolation to predict objectively measured varietal identification from farmers' self reported data which provides proof-of-concept towards scalable approaches to obtain reliable measures of crop varieties and allows us to extend the analysis to the nationally representative sample. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03597332&r= |
| By: | Fernando M. Aragón (Simon Fraser University); Diego Restuccia (University of Toronto); Juan Pablo Rud (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | We assess the extent and cost of misallocation in agriculture in less-developed countries comparing the analysis at the plot and farm levels. Using detailed data from Uganda, we show that the plot-level analysis leads to extremely large estimates of reallocation gains, even after adjusting for measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. These results reflect two empirical limitations of the plot as unit of analysis: excess measurement error and near constant returns to scale production estimates. We find limited evidence of substantial measurement error at the farm level. |
| Keywords: | Plot, farm, misallocation, measurement error, agriculture, distortions |
| JEL: | O4 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:130&r= |
| By: | Tim Kaiser; Lukas Menkhoff; Manuel Menkhoff |
| Abstract: | We conduct a randomized field experiment to study the effects of two financial education interventions offered to small-scale retailers in rural western Uganda. The treatments contrast “active learning” with traditional “lecturing” within standardized lesson-plans. After six months, active learning has a positive effect on savings and investment outcomes, in contrast to small or zero effects for lecturing. After four years, estimates come with substantial uncertainty but are generally larger for the active learning group, such as a 60 percent increase in investments. As an adverse outcome, reported late payment on loans increases by about 30 percent for both treatments. The findings suggest that teaching methods can play an important role in affecting how financial education programs impact financial behavior and outcomes. |
| Keywords: | financial behaviour, financial literacy, active learning, lecturing, training method, field experiment |
| JEL: | O16 I21 G53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9661&r= |
| By: | Cauê Carrilho (USP - Universidade de São Paulo); Gabriela Demarchi (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR], CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro); Amy Duchelle (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); Sven Wunder (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR], EFI - European Forest Institute); Carla Morsello (EACH - Escola de Artes Ciências e Humanidades - USP - Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | Rigorous impact evaluations of local REDD+ (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) initiatives have shown some positive outcomes for forests, while wellbeing impacts have been mixed. However, will REDD+ outcomes persist over time after interventions have ended? Using quasi-experimental methods, we investigated the effects of one REDD+ initiative in the Brazilian Amazon on deforestation and people's well-being, including intra-community spillover effects (leakage). We then evaluated to what extent outcomes persisted after the initiative ended (permanence). This initiative combined Payments for Environmental Services (PES) with sustainable livelihood alternatives to reduce smallholder deforestation. Data came from face-to-face surveys with 113 households (treatment: 52; non-participant from treatment communities: 35; control: 46) in a three-datapoint panel design (2010, 2014 and 2019). Results indicate the REDD+ initiative conserved an average of 7.8% to 10.3% of forest cover per household. It also increased the probability of improving enrollees' wellbeing by 27-44%. We found no evidence for significant intra-community leakage. After the initiative ended, forest loss rebounded and perceived wellbeing declined – yet, importantly, past saved forest was not cleared. Our results therefore confirm what the theory and stylized evidence envisioned for temporal payments on activity-reducing (‘set-aside'): forest loss was successfully delayed, but not permanently eradicated. |
| Keywords: | conservation incentives,emission reductions,additionality,climate change mitigation,impact assessment. |
| Date: | 2022–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-03614704&r= |
| By: | Cassimon, Danny; Fadare, Olusegun; Mavrotas, George |
| Abstract: | The Sustainable Development Goal-2 to “end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture” has received a lot of attention in recent years as part of the 2030 Agenda. At the same time, there exists a complex interaction between institutions, capital flows, and food and nutrition security. In this paper we estimate a series of dynamic panel data models to examine the impact of governance quality and capital flows (in the form of ODA, FDI, Portfolio Equity and Remittances) on food security, nutrition security and undernourishment by using panel data for 25 SSA countries over the period 1996 to 2018. One of the key contributions of the paper is the use of both aggregate and disaggregated capital flows to examine the impact on both food and nutrition security, a dimension that has been surprisingly neglected in most of the relevant literature. We combine this with the interaction of various types of capital flows with a governance quality index we constructed from various governance indicators and in order to examine also the impact of institutions on the overall nexus. We also employ a dynamic estimation methodology in the form of Difference-GMM and System-GMM estimators along with various misspecification diagnostics to deal with possible endogeneity issues. Finally, we also examine the impact not only on food and nutrition security but also on undernourishment Our findings clearly demonstrate the importance of a disaggregation approach and reflect on earlier work regarding the role of governance quality in the overall nexus between external capital flows and various measures of food and nutrition security which leads, and as expected, to an interesting variation in the results obtained, depending on the type of capital flows and the interaction with the governance indicators. |
| Keywords: | institutions; capital flows; food security; nutrition security; undernourishment; SSA; sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | F30 I10 O10 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:2022.01&r= |
| By: | Esteban Puentes; Fan Wang; Jere R. Behrman; Fl\'avio Cunha; John Hoddinott; John A. Maluccio; Linda S. Adair; Judith B. Borja; Reynaldo Martorell; Aryeh D. Stein |
| Abstract: | We examine effects of protein and energy intakes on height and weight growth for children between 6 and 24 months old in Guatemala and the Philippines. Using instrumental variables to control for endogeneity and estimating multiple specifications, we find that protein intake plays an important and positive role in height and weight growth in the 6-24 month period. Energy from other macronutrients, however, does not have a robust relation with these two anthropometric measures. Our estimates indicate that in contexts with substantial child undernutrition, increases in protein-rich food intake in the first 24 months can have important growth effects, which previous studies indicate are related significantly to a range of outcomes over the life cycle. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.02542&r= |
| By: | Kai Barron; Charles D.H. Parry; Debbie Bradshaw; Rob Dorrington; Pam Groenewald; Ria Laubscher; Richard Matzopoulos |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of a sudden and unexpected nation-wide alcohol sales ban in South Africa. We find that this policy causally reduced injury-induced mortality in the country by at least 14% during the five weeks of the ban. We argue that this estimate constitutes a lower bound on the true impact of alcohol on injury-induced mortality. We also document a sharp drop in violent crimes, indicating a tight link between alcohol and aggressive behaviour in society. Our results underscore the severe harm that alcohol can cause and point towards a role for policy measures that target the heaviest drinkers in society. |
| Keywords: | alcohol, mortality, economics, health, crime, South Africa, Covid-19, violence |
| JEL: | I18 I12 K42 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9595&r= |
| By: | Giacomo Battiston; Gianmarco Daniele; Marco Le Moglie; Paolo Pinotti |
| Abstract: | We show that the War on Drugs launched by the Mexican President Felipe Calderón in 2007 pushed drug cartels into large-scale oil thefts. Municipalities that the presidential candidate’s party barely won at the local elections in 2007-2009 exhibit a larger increase in illegal oil taps over the following years, compared to municipalities in which the presidential candidate’s party barely lost the elections. Challenger cartels in the drug market leapfrog incumbent drug cartels when entering the new illegal activity, analogous to what is typically observed in legal markets. Since challengers and incumbents specialize in different criminal sectors, the expansion of challengers does not increase violence in municipalities traversed by oil pipelines. At the same time, the municipalities traversed by a pipeline witness a decrease in schooling rates. |
| Keywords: | organized crime, War on Drugs, oil thefts, leapfrogging |
| JEL: | K42 L20 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9521&r= |
| By: | Elissaios Pappyrakis; Osiris Jorge Parcero |
| Abstract: | Despite rapidly-expanding academic and policy interest in the links between natural resource wealth and development failures (commonly referred to as the resource curse) little attention has been devoted to the psychology behind the phenomenon. Rent-seeking and excessive reliance on mineral revenues can be attributed largely to social psychology. Mineral booms (whether due to the discovery of mineral reserves or to the drastic rise in commodity prices) start as positive income shocks that can subsequently evolve into influential and expectation-changing public and media narratives; these lead consecutively to unrealistic demands that favor immediate consumption of accrued mineral revenues and to the postponement of productive investment. To our knowledge, this paper is the first empirical analysis that tests hypotheses regarding the psychological underpinnings of resource mismanagement in mineral-rich states. Our study relies on an extensive personal survey (of 1977 respondents) carried out in Almaty, Kazakhstan, between May and August 2018. We find empirical support for a positive link between exposure to news and inflated expectations regarding mineral availability, as well as evidence that the latter can generate preferences for excessive consumption, and hence, rent-seeking. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.03948&r= |
| By: | Daniel Bj\"orkegren; Joshua Blumenstock; Omowunmi Folajimi-Senjobi; Jacqueline Mauro; Suraj R. Nair |
| Abstract: | Digital loans have exploded in popularity across low and middle income countries, providing short term, high interest credit via mobile phones. This paper reports the results of a randomized evaluation of a digital loan product in Nigeria. Being randomly approved for digital credit (irrespective of credit score) substantially increases subjective well-being after an average of three months. For those who are approved, being randomly offered larger loans has an insignificant effect. Neither treatment significantly impacts other measures of welfare. We rule out large short-term impacts either positive or negative: on income and expenditures, resilience, and women's economic empowerment. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2202.13540&r= |