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on Development |
| By: | Pierre Mandon; Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael |
| Abstract: | This paper employs a meta-regression analysis of 473 estimates from 15 studies to take stock of the empirical literature on Chinese aid effectiveness. After accommodating publication selection bias, we find that, on average, Beijing’s foreign assistance has had a positive impact on economic and social outcomes in recipient countries but an opposite effect on governance, albeit negligible in size. We also show that (i) studies that fail to uncover statistically significant effects are less likely to be submitted to journals, or accepted for publication; and (ii) results are not driven by authors’ institutional affiliation. Differences in study characteristics such as the type of development outcome considered, how the Chinese aid variable is measured, the geographic region under study, and publication outlet explain the heterogeneity among Chinese aid effectiveness estimates reported in the literature. |
| Keywords: | China, foreign aid, meta-regression analysis |
| Date: | 2022–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/046&r= |
| By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Tafere, Kibrom; Berhane, Guush; Chamberlin, Jordan; Abay, Mehari Hiluf |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. We use difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) on households’ exposure to violent conflict, we show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were the most affected by the conflict while farming activities were relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas were much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of an on-going civil conflict, providing direct evidence on how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; livelihoods; food security; civil conflict; conflicts; surveys; market access; food access; labour; households; employment; phone surveys |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2108&r= |
| By: | Fiala, Nathan; Garcia-Hernandez, Ana; Narula, Kritika; Prakash, Nishith |
| Abstract: | Reducing the gender gap in education is a primary goal for many countries. Two major challenges for many girls are the distance to school and their safety when commuting to school. In Zambia, we studied the impact of providing a bicycle to a school-going girl who lives more than 3 km from the school. We randomized whether a girl received a bicycle with a small cost to her family to cover replacement parts, a bicycle where these costs are covered by the program, and therefore is zero cost to the family, or a control group. One year after the intervention, we find that the bicycle reduced average commuting time to school by 35%, reduced late arrival by 66%, and decreased absenteeism by 27%. We find continued improvement in girls' attendance and reduction in dropouts two, three, and four years after the intervention. We also find evidence of improved math test scores, girls expressing higher feelings of control over their lives and, for those who received bicycles with a small cost to her family, higher levels of aspirations, self-image, and a desire to delay marriage and pregnancy. Heterogeneity analysis by distance to school shows an inverted U-shape for most of the schooling and empowerment results, suggesting greater impact for girls that live further away from school. These results suggest that empowerment outcomes worked through increased attendance in school. |
| Keywords: | Girls’,education,attendance,dropout,grade transition,test scores,bicycles,female aspiration,female empowerment,safety,Zambia |
| JEL: | H42 I21 I25 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:943&r= |
| By: | Odmaa Narantungalag (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the local economic impacts of a large-scale copper-gold mine in Mongolia. Employing household data from 2008 to 2016, we find positive economic effects of the mine and its corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. A ten percent increase in mining activities resulted in 2.2 and 2.3 percent increases in income and food consumption, respectively. Mining activities enabled households to increase their medical expenditures, while sickness did not increase significantly. In contrast, education expenditures reduced while educational attainments improved in mining areas. Both expenditure patterns indicate that large-scale extractive industries can generate positive welfare outcomes for residents, and CSR activities further enhance the mining sector’s traditional benefits. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Natural Resources, Regional Economy, and Economic Development |
| JEL: | L72 O12 O13 Q32 R11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mas:dpaper:2101&r= |
| By: | Jaiswal, Sreeja; Bensch, Gunther; Navalkar, Aniket; Jayaraman, T. |
| Abstract: | Railways are a key infrastructure that facilitates trade and regional integration with potential consequences on local development and the environment in hitherto backward regions. In this article, we study the medium- to long-term socio-economic and environmental infrastructure impacts for the case of the Konkan Railway, which is one of the biggest railway construction endeavours in independent India. We employ a quasi-experimental mixed-methods design to explore the impact of the Konkan Railway on population, workforce composition and land cover types using census and satellite data. We find that the Konkan Railway led to an increase in the female-to-male sex ratio and a negative effect on the share of male workers among the working population. In combination with qualitative evidence, this suggests that the railway access has reinforced the pre-existing pattern of high levels of male migration. We also find an increase in population and the workforce participation rate without disparate workforce effects across sectors suggesting that the railway had moderate effects across the local economies. In terms of land use, the analysis could not substantiate concerns regarding substantive loss of forest cover induced by the railways. The findings encourage policy makers - in assessing the effects of transport infrastructure - to take into consideration the impact on migration, labour mobility and labour market outcomes in sending and receiving regions. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure,railway access,migration,impact evaluation,mixed methods,India |
| JEL: | N75 O18 O40 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:936&r= |
| By: | Siddique, Abu; Islam, Asad; Mozumder, Tanvir Ahmed; Rahman, Tabassum; Shatil, Tanvir |
| Abstract: | Forced displacement is a major driver of mental disorders among refugees worldwide. Poor mental health of adult refugees, particularly mothers, is also considered a risk factor for the psychological well-being and development of their children. In this study, we experimentally examine the extent to which a multifaceted psychosocial program improves the mental well-being of refugee mothers, and facilitates growth and development among children under the age of two. In partnership with BRAC, we ran a cluster randomized controlled trial on 3,500 Rohingya mother-child dyads in refugee camps in Bangladesh. Participants were given weekly psychosocial support for a year that includes psychoeducation and parenting support for mothers and play activities for both mothers and children. The intervention was largely successful and led to: (i) reductions in the psychological trauma and depression severity of mothers and children, (ii) improvements in communication, gross-motor, problem-solving, and social skills of children, and (iii) reductions in stunting, underweight, and wasting among children in the treatment group. The intervention also caused the mental health of children to be more aligned with the mental health of their mothers, implying policies targeting the mental well-being of displaced mothers can be an important stepping stone to developing psychological resilience among their children, which can help them grow into well-rounded, healthy adults. |
| Date: | 2022–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:b4fc7&r= |
| By: | Wellner, Lukas; Dreher, Axel; Fuchs, Andreas; Parks, Bradley; Strange, Austin M. |
| Abstract: | Bilateral donors use foreign aid to pursue soft power. We test the effectiveness of aid in reaching this goal by leveraging a new dataset on the precise commitment, implementation, and completion dates of Chinese development projects. We use data from the Gallup World Poll for 126 countries over the 2006-2017 period and identify causal effects with (i) an event-study model that includes high-dimensional fixed effects, and (ii) instrumental-variables regressions that rely on exogenous variation in the supply of Chinese government financing over time. Our results are nuanced and depend on whether we focus on subnational jurisdictions, countries, or groupings of countries. |
| Keywords: | development finance,foreign aid,aid events,public opinion,government approval,soft power,China,Gallup World Poll |
| JEL: | F35 F59 H73 H77 O19 P33 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2214&r= |
| By: | Kozhaya, Mireille (University of Wuppertal); Martínez Flores, Fernanda (RWI) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of a unique child labor ban regulation on employment and school enrollment. The ban implemented in Mexico in 2015, increased the minimum working age from 14 to 15, introduced restrictions to employ underage individuals, and imposed penalties for the violation of the law. Our identification strategy relies on a DiD approach that exploits the date of birth as a natural cutoff to assign individuals into treatment and control groups. The ban led to a decrease in the probability to work by 1.2 percentage points and an increase in the probability of being enrolled in school by 2.2 percentage points for the treatment group. These results are driven by a reduction in employment in paid activities, and in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The effects are persistent several years after the ban. |
| Keywords: | child labor, ban, minimum working age, schooling |
| JEL: | I38 J22 J23 J82 O12 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15144&r= |
| By: | Gaurav Dhamija (Indian Institute of Technology, Hyderabad); Gitanjali Sen (Department Of Economics, Shiv Nadar University) |
| Abstract: | Exposure to extreme shocks in early life is found to have lasting impact in adulthood. Exploiting the variation in exposure measured by age and intensity of earthquake, we evaluate the impact of a 7.7 MW earthquake in Gujarat, India, on the health stock of children who were in utero or below three years. Using the India Human Development Survey (IHDS-1) data (2004-05) and earthquake intensity data, we find, an affected girl child to be shorter by at least 2.5 cm at the age of 3-6 years. The earthquake seems to have destroyed the household infrastructures and health facilities, affecting the expecting mothers and newborn children. The households using services to meet nutritional needs of children and pregnant women seem to be least affected. Our findings recommend faster reconstruction activities and highlight the importance of universal healthcare and nutritional delivery services to mitigate the impacts of early-life shocks. |
| Keywords: | Earthquake, child health, height, ZHFA, Shock, India. |
| JEL: | I1 I3 J1 O2 |
| Date: | 2022–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alr:wpaper:2022-03&r= |
| By: | Leonardo Becchetti (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Sara Mancini (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Sara Savastano (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata" and IFAD) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of climate shocks on household subjective wellbeing on a sample of farmers in a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) of the Pacific (the Solomon Islands). We find that both subjective (self-assessed exposure to climate shocks) and objective (past cumulative extended dry spells) environmental stress indicators significantly reduce respondent’s subjective wellbeing. Using the compensating surplus approach we calculate that this loss requires several years of crop income to be compensated. Subjective wellbeing is more severely impacted for farmers with poor dwellings (ie. with thatch walls, consistently with the well known Disney tale), below median income or durable asset and for farmers living more isolated and not being members of formal agricultural associations. Farmers hit by climate shocks experienced in significantly higher proportion nutrition problems in their households. These findings support the hypothesis of the strong interdependence between environmental and social shocks. |
| Keywords: | climate shock, subjective wellbeing, compensating surplus, small scale Pacific islands. |
| JEL: | I31 Q01 Q20 |
| Date: | 2022–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:537&r= |
| By: | Ms. Pritha Mitra; Eric M. Pondi Endengle; Seung Mo Choi |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of climate-related disasters on medium-term growth and analyzes key structural areas that could substantially improve disaster-resilience. Results show that (i) climaterelated disasters have a significant negative impact on medium-term growth, especially for sub-Saharan Africa; and (ii) a disaster’s intensity matters much more than its frequency, given the non-linear cumulative effects of disasters. In sub-Saharan Africa, electrification (facilitating irrigation) is found to be most effective for reducing damage from droughts while improved health care and education outcomes are critical for raising resilience to floods and storms. Better access to finance, telecommunications, and use of machines in agriculture also have a significant impact. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Growth, Resilience building, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2022–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/039&r= |
| By: | Ella Sargsyan |
| Abstract: | Identifying the impacts of conflicts and understanding the origins of gender gaps are both seemingly unrelated but crucial questions in the literature. Focusing on the gap at the intersection of these two branches of literature, this study explores whether and how longrun exposure to violent conflicts contributes to and shapes the child gender preferences of parents. I use temporal and spatial variations in conflicts in Nigeria and combine the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and the Demographic and Health Surveys Program to perform the analysis. The results show that the effect of long-run exposure to violent conflicts on stated preferences (attitudes) for boys is not homogeneous. While conflict events with low or no civilian death increase preferences for sons, violence targeted at civilians works in the opposite direction and decreases preferences for boys. I find no evidence of translating these preferences into behaviour via sex-selective abortions. Instead, evidence shows that parents use the stopping rule to achieve the desired gender composition of children. Further, analysis also indicates that, in the districts affected by conflict, parents have a positive bias towards boys in terms of their postnatal health investment. |
| Keywords: | gender preferences; son preference; violent conflicts; attitudes and behaviour; |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp723&r= |
| By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Wossen, Tesfamicheal; Chamberlin, Jordan |
| Abstract: | Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is commonly characterized by high levels of technical inefficiency. However, much of this characterization relies on self-reported input and production data, which are prone to systematic measurement error. We theoretically show that non-classical measurement error introduces multiple identification challenges and sources of bias in estimating smallholders’ technical inefficiency. We then empirically examine the implications of measurement error for the estimation of technical inefficiency using smallholder farm survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. We find that measurement error in agricultural input and production data leads to a substantial upward bias in technical inefficiency estimates (by up to 85 percent for some farmers). Our results suggest that existing estimates of technical efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa may be severe underestimates of smallholders’ actual efficiency and what is commonly attributed to farmer inefficiency may be an artifact of mismeasurement in agricultural data. Our results raise questions about the received wisdom on African smallholders’ production efficiency and prior estimates of the productivity of agricultural inputs. Improving the measurement of agricultural data can improve our understanding of smallholders’ production efficiencies and improve the targeting of productivity-enhancing technologies. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; TANZANIA; EAST AFRICA; MALAWI; SOUTHERN AFRICA; NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; smallholders; measurement; errors; efficiency; field size; surveys; data; DNA fingerprinting; agricultural production; technical inefficiency estimates |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2105&r= |
| By: | Aizhamal Rakhmetova; Roman Hoffmann; Mariola Pytlikova |
| Abstract: | Despite an increasing number of studies, there is no scientific consensus on the extent and conditions under which environmental factors influence migration. In particular, little is known about the role played by financial resources that may facilitate or hinder migration under environmental stress. Empirical evidence shows that some households migrate in response to environmental hazards while others remain in place, potentially being trapped due to lack of resources, i.e. poverty constraints. However, little is known about how access to financial resources influences the decision of a household to stay or migrate. On one hand, financial resources can help to alleviate poverty constraints and to cover migration costs, thereby increasing migration (climate-driver mechanism); on the other hand, financial resources can also improve the adaptation capacities of households at the place they reside, and thus reduce migration responses to environmental changes (climate-inhibitor mechanism). To shed light on households’ migration decisions in response to climate shocks depending on their access to financial resources, we utilize rich micro-data from Indonesia and exploit two sources of variation in climate and cash transfers. Our results suggest that better access to financial resources facilitates the climateinhibitor mechanism for short-term rainfall shocks and natural disasters. At the same time, better accessibility to financial resources enhances the climate-driver mechanism for accumulated rainfall shocks and temperature anomalies. |
| Keywords: | climate change; migration; financial resources; adaptation; |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp724&r= |
| By: | Djemaï, Elodie; Clark, Andrew E.; D'Ambrosio, Conchita |
| Abstract: | Public Goods aim to improve individual welfare. We investigate the causal consequences of roads on well-being in 24 African countries, instrumenting paved roads by 19th Century hypothetical lines between major ports and cities. We have data on over 32000 individuals, and consider both their objective and subjective well-being. Roads reduce material deprivation, in terms of access to basic needs, but at the same time there is no relation between roads and subjective living conditions. The benefit of roads in providing basic needs then seems to be offset by worse outcomes in non basic-needs domains. |
| Keywords: | roads; subjective well-being; basic needs; material deprivation; Africa |
| JEL: | D63 I32 O18 |
| Date: | 2021–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114432&r= |
| By: | Mr. Rodolfo Maino; Drilona Emrullahu |
| Abstract: | Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline. |
| Keywords: | climate change, fragile states, climate risk |
| Date: | 2022–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/054&r= |
| By: | Munyehirwe, Anicet; Peters, Jörg; Sievert, Maximiliane; Bulte, Erwin H.; Fiala, Nathan |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency is a key component of climate policy. We study micro and macro rebound effects after the introduction of energy-efficient biomass cookstoves (EEBCs). We develop a model of biomass supply and demand in rural Africa. The impact of EEBCs is empirically explored in Rwanda where we randomly varied subsidy levels for EEBCs at the village-level. Demand is price elastic, so we exploit exogenous saturation variation to study local rebound effects. While adoption of EEBCs reduces household firewood consumption, we find no meaningful local rebound effects and identify conditions under which this finding generalizes to other settings - or not. |
| Keywords: | Energy efficiency,macro-rebound effect,technology adoption,improved cooking |
| JEL: | R13 D12 O13 Q28 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:934&r= |
| By: | Rose, Julian; Bensch, Gunther; Munyehirwe, Anicet; Peters, Jörg |
| Abstract: | Charcoal is an important cooking fuel in urban Africa. In this paper, we estimate the current number of charcoal users and project trends for the coming decades. Charcoal production is often not effectively regulated, and it hence contributes to forest degradation. Moreover, charcoal has adverse health effects for its users. At the same time, charcoal constitutes an important income source in deprived rural areas, while the current alternative, gas, is a mostly imported fossil fuel. We find that 195 million people in sub-Saharan Africa rely on charcoal as their primary cooking fuel and gauge that another 200 million use charcoal as secondary fuel. Our scenarios suggest that clean cooking initiatives are outweighed by strong urban population growth and hence charcoal usage is expected to remain high over the coming decades. Policies should therefore target end-users, forest management, and regulation of charcoal production to enable sustainable production and use of charcoal. |
| Keywords: | Energy consumption,charcoal,Africa |
| JEL: | Q56 Q58 Q40 Q41 Q20 R11 O10 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:937&r= |
| By: | Martin González-Rozada; Hernan Ruffo |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore the role of trade on the evolution of labor share in Latin American countries. We use trade agreements with large economies (US, EU, and China) to capture the effect of sharp changes in trade. In the last two decades, labor share has a negative trend among those countries that signed trade agreements while in the remaining countries labor share increased, widening the gap in 7 percentage points. We apply synthetic control methods to estimate the average causal impact of trade agreements on labor share. While effects are heterogeneous in our eight case studies, the average impact is negative between 2 to 4 percentage points of GDP four years after the entry into force of the trade agreements. This result is robust to the specification used and to the set of countries in the donor pool. We also find that, after trade agreements, exports of manufactured goods and the share of industry to GDP increase on average, most notably in the case studies where negative effects on labor share are significant. A decomposition shows that all the reduction in labor share is explained by a negative impact on real wages. |
| Keywords: | Labor share, trade agreements, synthetic control methods. |
| JEL: | C01 C1 F1 F16 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpecon:2021_03&r= |
| By: | Do Nascimento Miguel, Jérémy |
| Abstract: | In many Sub-Saharan countries, farmers cannot meet the growing urban demand for higher quality products, leading to increasing dependency on imports. While the literature has focused on production-side constraints to enhancing smallholder farmers’ output quality, there is scarce evidence of market-side constraints. Using a unique sample of 60 wheat markets in Ethiopia, I examine the relationship between the price obtained by farmers and the quality supplied. Using objective and precise measures of observable (impurity content) and unobservable (flour extraction rate and moisture level) quality attributes, no evidence was found of a strong correlation between the two, suggesting that observable attributes cannot serve as proxies for unobservable ones. Transaction prices further reflect this, indicating that, markets only reward quality attributes that are observable at no cost. However, these results hide cross-market heterogeneity. Observable quality attributes are better rewarded in larger and more competitive markets, while unobservable attributes are rewarded in the presence of grain millers and/or farmer cooperatives on the market site. Both regression and machine learning approaches support these findings. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; markets; rural areas; agriculture; wheat; crops; quality; models; prices; smallholders |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2101&r= |