nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2022‒03‒14
fifteen papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migratory Flows: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa By Di Falco, Salvatore; Kis, Anna B.; Viarengo, Martina
  2. Armed Conflict and Children's School/Work Time Allocation : evidence from Côte d'Ivoire By Eric Dago
  3. Gender, demand for agricultural credit and digital technology: Survey evidence from Odisha By Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.
  4. The impacts of rural outmigration on women’s empowerment: Evidence from Nepal, Senegal, and Tajikistan By Slavchevska, Vanya; Doss, Cheryl R.; Hillesland, Marya; Mane, Erdgin
  5. Post-program impacts of transfer programs on child development: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh By Ahmed, Akhter; Hamadani, Jena Derakhshani; Hassan, Md. Zahidul; Hidrobo, Melissa; Hoddinott, John F.; Koch, Bastien; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Roy, Shalini
  6. Women's inheritance rights and time use: Evidence from Hindu Succession Act in India By Tanu Gupta
  7. Does aid to the productive sectors cause manufacturing sector growth in Africa? By Alain Ndikumana
  8. Tax effort in Sub-Saharan African countries : evidence from a new dataset By Emilie Caldeira; Alou Adessé Dama; Ali Compaoré; Mario Mansour; Grégoire Rota-Graziosi
  9. How Do Agro-Pastoral Policies Affect the Dietary Intake of Agro-Pastoralists? Evidence from Niger By Christophe Muller; Nouréini Sayouti
  10. Environmental Factors and Internal Migration in India By Komeda, Kenji
  11. Dietary change and food demand in urbanizing Bangladesh By Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew R.
  12. Promoting Agroforestry in Rwanda: the Effects of Policy Interventions Derived from the Theory of Planned Behaviour By Noeldeke, Beatrice
  13. Government Fragmentation and Economic Growth By Cassidy, Traviss; Velayudhan, Tejaswi
  14. The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market By Ana Aguilar; Carlo Alcaraz; Claudia Ramírez; Cid Alonso Rodríguez-Pérez
  15. Norms, gender, and payment method affect extraction behavior in a framed field experiment on community forestry in India By Zhang, Wei; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela; Valappanandi, Sanoop; Balakrishna, Raksha; Reddy, Hemalatha; Janssen, Marco A.; Thomas, Liya; Priyadarshini, Pratiti; Kandikuppa, Sandeep; Chaturvedi, Rahul; Ghate, Rucha

  1. By: Di Falco, Salvatore (University of Geneva); Kis, Anna B. (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Viarengo, Martina (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
    Keywords: climate shocks, rural-urban migration, economic development
    JEL: O15 O13 Q54
    Date: 2022–02
  2. By: Eric Dago (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between armed conflict and school/work time allocation for children aged 10 to 14 years. The paper uses household level data from Côte d'Ivoire combined with information on the exact location and date of conflict events. The identification strategy uses the specific numbers of conflict events across "départements" and self-reported victim status indicators at the individual level to measure children's exposure to the conflict. Based on a bivariate probit model, which has the advantage of considering the simultaneity of decisions in school and work, and, controlling for the individual and household characteristics that determine household choices in schooling and in child labor, my results suggest that individuals from "départements" more affected by the conflict have higher probability of being involved in economic activities and lower probability of being enrolled in school. I further examine possible war impact mechanisms using a victim status indicator at the household level. The results suggest that conflict-related household victim status is an important channel through which armed conflict negatively affects the allocation of the children's' time.
    Keywords: Civil conflict,Child labor,Education / learning,Bivariate probit,Cote d'ivoire
    Date: 2020–09–16
  3. By: Kramer, Berber; Pattnaik, Subhransu; Ward, Patrick S.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the potential linkages between innovations in agricultural credit and women’s empowerment. We provide survey evidence of lower baseline demand for agricultural credit among women than men. When asked to imagine that their financial institution would use data on past cultivation through observations of smartphone and satellite imagery to review loan applications and insure loans, women reported significantly more often than men that this would increase (and not decrease) the likelihood that they would apply for loans, and their desired loan amounts increased significantly more than those of men. Moreover, we find that the gender gap in demand for agricultural credit is explained, in part, by differences in empowerment between women and men, suggesting that increasing women’s empowerment could help bridge gender gaps in credit access and utilization. Using a cluster randomized trial, we assess whether gender sensitization has an effect on women’s empowerment and demand for credit, but we do not find that gender trainings help shift women’s empowerment or demand for credit. We conclude that improving access to digital credit is not going to be sufficient to empower women. Instead, gender responsive or gender transformative programming is required to improve demand and create an enabling environment in which norms are changed and make it easier for women to take out agricultural credit.
    Keywords: INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; gender; demand; agricultural credit; credit; digital technology; surveys; microfinance; women's empowerment; digital credit
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Slavchevska, Vanya; Doss, Cheryl R.; Hillesland, Marya; Mane, Erdgin
    Abstract: Using primary survey data collected in Tajikistan, Nepal and Senegal, three countries with high male outmigration rates, this study analyzes the impacts of migration on the empowerment of women who remain in rural areas. The study uses indicators from the Abbreviate Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (A-WEAI) to measure women’s empowerment in five domains (decision-making autonomy around agricultural production, resources, control over income, group membership and workload) and instrumental variable approaches to address the endogeneity between the migration of a family member and women’s empowerment. It finds that male outmigration leads to women’s empowerment in agriculture in some domains and disempowerment in others. In Tajikistan, where women start with low levels of empowerment, women in households with a migrant are more likely to be involved in decisions in productive activities on the household farm, control income, own assets and achieve workload balance than women in non-migrant households. In Nepal and Senegal, women start at higher levels of empowerment and we see fewer differences in their empowerment based on whether they live in a migrant-sending household. The impacts of migration on empowerment depend on the context, whether the household receives remittances or owns land, and women’s position within the household.
    Keywords: NEPAL; SOUTH ASIA; SENEGAL; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; TAJIKISTAN; CENTRAL ASIA; ASIA; rural urban migration; gender; women; women's empowerment; decision making; households; rural areas; urban areas; migration; rural outmigration; Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Ahmed, Akhter; Hamadani, Jena Derakhshani; Hassan, Md. Zahidul; Hidrobo, Melissa; Hoddinott, John F.; Koch, Bastien; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Roy, Shalini
    Abstract: Evidence shows transfer programs can improve early childhood development (ECD). However, knowledge gaps remain on how short-term impacts on ECD evolve as children grow older, how program design features and context affect child development impacts over time, and through what pathways such impacts occur. We study the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI), a 2-year randomized controlled trial in two regions of Bangladesh that provided cash or food transfers, with or without complementary nutrition programming, to mothers of children aged 0-2 years at baseline. Drawing on data collected at 6 months post-program (when children were about 2-4 years old) and at 4 years post-program (when children were about 6-8 years old), we assess post-program impacts of TMRI on children’s home environment and development. We find strong post-program impacts on the home environment from cash transfers in the Northern region, particularly when combined with complementary programming, however limited post-program effects on child development outcomes. Improvements found in child development tend to be concentrated in boys. We find few post-program improvements in home environment or child development from food transfers in the Southern region, with or without complementary programming.
    Keywords: BANGLADESH; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; early childhood development; children; child development; social protection; cash transfers; poverty; food transfers; behavior change communication
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Tanu Gupta
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the Hindu Succession Act on married women's time use in India. The Hindu Succession Act was amended between 1976 and 2005 by giving equal inheritance rights to women for inheriting property. To estimate the effect of the equal inheritance reform, I devise a difference-in-difference strategy by exploiting the features of the reform. Using the nationally representative Time Use Survey 2019, I find that women exposed to the reform are investing 46 minutes per day more in employment.
    Keywords: Time use, Inheritance and succession, Women, India
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Alain Ndikumana
    Abstract: In recent decades, Africa has received a large share of official development assistance compared to other regions of the world. Using AidData for 2000-13, this paper examines the effects of aid to productive sectors on manufacturing growth in Africa. Econometric results show that increased assistance to these sectors is associated with an increase in growth of the manufacturing sector, with complementary effects from allocations to economic services and infrastructures.
    Keywords: Aid, Production, Growth, Manufacturing
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Emilie Caldeira (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Alou Adessé Dama (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ali Compaoré (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mario Mansour (International Monetary Fund (IMF)); Grégoire Rota-Graziosi (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper proposes (i) a new database of tax revenue for 42 Sub-Saharan African countries (SSA) over the period 1980-2015, (ii) an estimate of tax effort for these countries, and (iii) some replication analyses of previous tax effort estimations. The database results from statistical information of the African Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In particular, it allows distinguishing tax revenue from the natural resource sector from the other economic sectors. SSA countries collected on average 13.2 percent of GDP in non-resource tax revenue over the studied period and their average estimated tax effort is 0.58. In other words, SSA countries could raise 22.75 percent of GDP in non-resource taxes if they fully used their potential. In line with previous analyses, we find that countries' stage of development measured by per-capita income, financial development, and trade openness are important factors improving tax revenue in the region, while natural resource endowment and the importance of the agriculture sector reduce unambiguously the non-resource tax-to-GDP ratio. Finally, beyond the originality of the database itself and the empirical results, this work participates explicitly to the replication principle given its online development with R software (
    Keywords: Stochastic frontier analysis,Tax effort,Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2020–04–15
  9. By: Christophe Muller (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nouréini Sayouti (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PASEL - Projet d’appui au secteur de l’élevage)
    Abstract: Agricultural policies in poor rural developing countries typically aim at improving household nutrition by raising households' agricultural profit and presumably their dietary intake as a consequence. However, it is not clear how much of the impact of these policies goes through profit in practice. If the proportion is large, this would confirm the policy orientation and direct the attention of policy makers toward the different financial incentives. Even full activity substitution may occur, which may transform households' lifestyles and access to nutrient sources and thereby affect their nutrition. If, in contrast, the policy impact does not go through profit, then the policy perspective should be adjusted, and a thorough examination and monitoring of its other channels of influence should be undertaken. Using statistical mediation analysis, we investigate the mechanisms underlying the effect of agricultural policies directed toward pastoralist households on their dietary intake in terms of these direct and indirect (through profit) effects. Based on an agro-pastoral survey conducted in Niger in 2016, the effects of extension services associated with better access to markets are found to be channeled mostly through pastoral profits, while this is not the case for private veterinary services and low-cost livestock feed programs. Extension services may foster specialization in cattle and sheep raising, which incentivizes households to switch toward a nomadic lifestyle and limits their access to cereals, a valuable source of calories. As a result, extension services are found to damage their calorie intake.
    Keywords: Agro-pastoral policies,Mediation analysis,Agricultural household models,Niger
    Date: 2020–04
  10. By: Komeda, Kenji (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of air pollution, water pollution and water scarcity on internal migration in India using gravity model with 2SLS estimation. It contributes to the literature by first incorporating nationwide migrants and those three environmental factors into the analysis. The migration data is drawn from the Indian Census 2001 and 2011 and provides us with state-district pair-wise migration flows for certain time periods. With a wide range of data sources including Indian government platforms and satellite data, this study compiles a rich and comprehensive dataset. We find that the increase in air pollutant (PM2.5) at origin pushes out migrants, with larger influence on male than female. This paper also discovers, with more robust evidence, that the increase in groundwater level, a proxy for water scarcity level, at origin leads to less out-migrants and increase in groundwater at destination pulls more in-migrants for both genders. However, consistent evidence on water pollutants was not found.
    Keywords: Internal Migration ; Pollution ; Water Scarcity ; Gender Inequality ; Gravity Model JEL Classification: J16 ; J61 ; O15 ; Q25 ; Q53
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew R.
    Abstract: Poor-quality diets are one of the leading causes of malnutrition and common non-communicable disease. In this study, we use nationally representative household survey data and food demand system estimations to analyze dietary change and changing consumer preferences for different foods in the context of urbanization in low- and middle-income countries. We estimate and compare income and price elasticities of total food demand and the demand for 15 food groups in rural, urban, and city areas of Bangladesh for 2010 and 2016. We then use Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition regressions to explore how much of the observed food consumption changes can be explained by changes in revealed consumer preferences vis-Ã -vis changes in household income and food prices. The results show that Bangladeshi diets shifted from coarse to refined rice, and consumer preferences for vegetables and pulses were relatively low, contributing to worsening dietary quality. On the other hand, the consumption of nutritious, animal-source foods including fish, poultry, and eggs increased due to high consumer preferences and declining food prices-partly thanks to governmental production support. Regarding the dietary implications of rapid urbanization, the analysis suggests that rural consumers’ diets will largely follow the trajectory of urban consumers in Bangladesh.
    Keywords: BANGLADESH; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; nutrition; malnutrition; households; food consumption; diet; urbanization; food prices; healthy diets; maternal and child health; models; demand; dietary change; food demand; demand system
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Noeldeke, Beatrice
    Abstract: Although agroforestry offers multiple benefits, its adoption by small-scale farmers remains low in some regions in developing countries. Besides economic motives also intrinsic motivations can influence farmers’ behaviour. This study identifies farmers’ intrinsic drivers to adopt agroforestry based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Furthermore, it compares policy instruments which address the intrinsic drivers to promote agroforestry adoption. Specifically, an agent-based simulation model investigates whether the following interventions increase adoption intentions 1) an information campaign to spread awareness of agroforestry benefits to strengthen positive attitudes, 2) informing farmers about social norms to reinforce their perception of subjective norm, and 3) providing trainings to improve farmers’ perceived behavioural control. The research is applied to a case study in rural Rwanda. In line with the Theory of Planned Behaviour, a partial least squares structural equation model confirms that attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control influence farmers’ adoption intention. The simulations demonstrate that all interventions significantly increase farmers’ intention to adopt agroforestry, but their effectiveness is rather small. The information campaign targeting attitude causes the strongest increase. The relatively weak effectiveness of the individual interventions can be enhanced by their combined implementation. Policy-makers who aim to raise low agroforestry adoption rates should consider strategies that target intrinsic drivers as alternatives to economic incentives.
    Keywords: Agroforestry; Innovation Adoption; Theory of Planned Behaviour; Policy Interventions; Small-scale Farming
    JEL: O13 O21 Q18
    Date: 2022–02
  13. By: Cassidy, Traviss; Velayudhan, Tejaswi
    Abstract: How does the fragmentation of local governments affect economic activity? We examine this question in the context of a major period of decentralization in Indonesia in which the number of local governments increased by 50 percent within a decade. Exploiting idiosyncratic variation in the timing of district splits, we find that fragmentation reduces district GDP in the short run---despite large increases in central transfers. The downsides of fragmentation due to economies of scale and the inexperience of new government personnel outweigh the potential upsides of increased accountability and competition. The GDP decline is larger in ``child'' districts that acquire a new capital and government. Furthermore, splitting districts spend more on administration and show no improvement in the areas of public good provision, red tape, and corruption.
    Keywords: Economic growth, local governments, economies of scale, rent-seeking
    JEL: D73 H77 O43 O47
    Date: 2022–02–18
  14. By: Ana Aguilar; Carlo Alcaraz; Claudia Ramírez; Cid Alonso Rodríguez-Pérez
    Abstract: The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is not directly observable, and the presence of informal workers imposes an additional challenge in its estimation. In this paper, we present an estimation of the traditional NAIRU for Mexico and an alternative measure that includes informality as an indicator of labor underutilization. We find that both measures of NAIRU and the associated labor market slack indicators follow similar patterns over time. However, the slack estimated with the indicator that includes informality seems to predict inflationary pressures more accurately when the unemployment gap is close to zero.
    Keywords: unemployment, informality, NAIRU, business cycle.
    JEL: E26 E32 E52
    Date: 2022–02
  15. By: Zhang, Wei; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela; Valappanandi, Sanoop; Balakrishna, Raksha; Reddy, Hemalatha; Janssen, Marco A.; Thomas, Liya; Priyadarshini, Pratiti; Kandikuppa, Sandeep; Chaturvedi, Rahul; Ghate, Rucha
    Abstract: This paper presents results from a framed field experiment in which participants make decisions about extraction of a common-pool resource, a community forest. The experiment was designed and piloted as both a research activity and an experiential learning intervention during 2017-2018 with 120 groups of resource users (split by gender) from 60 habitations in two Indian states, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan. We examine whether local beliefs and norms about community forest, gender of participants, within-experiment treatments (non-communication, communication, and optional election of institutional arrangements (rules)) and remuneration methods affect harvest behaviour and groups’ tendency to cooperate. Furthermore, we explore whether the experiment and subsequent community debriefing had learning effects. Results reveal a “weak†Nash Equilibrium in which participants harvested substantially less than the Nash prediction even in the absence of communication, a phenomenon stronger for male than female participants in both states. For male groups in both states, both communication and optional rule election are associated with lower group harvest per round, as compared to the reference non-communication game. For female groups in both states, however, communication itself did not significantly slow down resource depletion; but the introduction of optional rule election did reduce harvest amounts. For both men and women in Andhra Pradesh and men in Rajasthan, incentivized payments to individual participants significantly lowered group harvest, relative to community flat payment, suggesting a possible “crowding-in†effect on pro-social norms. Despite the generally positive memory of the activity, reported actual changes are limited. This may be due to the lack of follow-up with the communities between the experiment and the revisit. The fact that many of the communities already have a good understanding of the importance of the relationships between (not) cutting trees and the ecosystem services from forests, with rules and strong internal norms against cutting that go beyond the felling of trees in the game, may have also meant that the game did not have as much to add. Findings have methodological and practical implications for designing behavioral intervention programs to improve common-pool resource governance.
    Keywords: INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; gender; extraction; community forestry; collective ownership; field experimentation; forests; game; experiential learning; payment methods; common-pool resource; framed field experiments;
    Date: 2021

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