|
on Development |
| By: | Laia Navarro-Sola (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | In areas with an insufficient supply of qualified teachers, delivering instruction through technology may be a solution to provide education. This paper analyzes the educational and labor market impacts of an expansion of junior secondary education in Mexico through schools using televised lessons, the telesecundarias. Exploiting their staggered rollout from 1968 to 2000, I show that for every additional telesecundaria per 50 children, ten students enroll in junior secondary education. I find that an additional year of education increases long-run income by 12.5–13.9%, driven partly by increased labor force participation and a shift away from agriculture and the informal sector. |
| Keywords: | secondary education, educational attainment, returns to education |
| JEL: | I28 O15 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2021-053&r= |
| By: | Congdon Fors, Heather (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Isaksson, Ann-Sofie (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Lindskog, Annika (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the explanatory power of social convention theory for explaining the persistence of female genital cutting (FGC) in a broad sample of African countries. While influential in policy circles, the idea that FGC is best described as a bad equilibrium in a social coordination game has recently been challenged by quantitative evidence from selected countries. These studies have pointed towards the importance of private preferences. We use novel approaches to test whether FGC is social interdependent when decisions also depend on private preferences. We test implications of the simple fact that according to social convention theory mothers will sometimes cut their daughters even if they do not support the practice. The substantial regional variation in FGC practices warrants investigation in a broad sample. Empirical results drawing on Demographic and Health Survey data from 34 surveys performed between 1992-2018 in 11 African countries suggest that cutting behavior is indeed often socially interdependent, and hence that it can be understood as a social convention. Our findings indicate that even if social convention theory does not provide the full picture, it should not be dismissed. Accordingly, interventions that acknowledge the social interdependence of cutting behavior are likely to be more successful than interventions that do not. |
| Keywords: | Female genital cutting; social convention theory; norms; Africa |
| JEL: | D71 D91 I15 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0814&r= |
| By: | Goerlach, Joseph-Simon (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | As wages in migrant sending countries catch up with those in destinations, migrants adjust on several margins, including their duration of stay, the number of migrations they undertake, as well as the amount saved while abroad. This paper combines Mexican and U.S. data to estimate a dynamic model of consumption, emigration and re-migration, accounting for financial constraints. An increase in Mexican household earnings shortens migration duration, but raises the number of trips per migrant. For lower-income migrants, a rise in Mexican wages leads to a more than proportional effect on consumption expenditure in Mexico, arising from repatriated savings. |
| Keywords: | migration duration, repeat migration, borrowing constraints |
| JEL: | J61 D15 F22 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14817&r= |
| By: | Tengstam, Sven (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Isaksson, Ann-Sofie (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we derive a poverty-minimizing allocation rule, based on which we assess the poverty-efficiency of actual aid allocations, with a special focus on the comparative impact of new donors and new non-aid flows. The results suggest a substantial misallocation of aid. Our benchmark estimates indicate that donors should reallocate nearly half the total aid budget from aid darlings (countries receiving more aid than the allocation rule specifies) to aid orphans (countries receiving less aid than the allocation rule specifies). The estimated poverty-reducing efficiency varies considerably across donors. Whereas new global actors such as the Gates foundation perform well above average, the non-DAC bilateral donors perform clearly worse. Overall, neither the new donors nor the new financial flows alleviate the observed misallocation of aid. While the new donors stand for a non-negligible share of overall poverty reduction, together they perform below average in terms of poverty reduction per aid dollar. Similarly, rather than counteracting the relative neglect of countries identified as particularly underfunded in terms of aid, the non-aid financial flows add to the inequitable distribution. Based on an extensive battery of alternative model calibrations, we establish upper and lower bounds on our estimates, allowing for clear policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Aid allocation; Poverty; Donors; Official development assistance; Other official flows |
| JEL: | D63 E61 F35 O11 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0815&r= |
| By: | Denis Cogneau (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yannick Dupraz (UCD - University College Dublin [Dublin]); Justine Knebelmann (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on the fiscal trajectories of 18 former French colonies in Africa from colonial times to the present. Building upon own previous work about colonial public finance (Cogneau et al., 2021), we compile a novel dataset by combining previously available data with recently digitized data from historical archives, to produce continuous and comparable public revenue data series from 1900 to 2018. This allows us to study the evolution of the level and composition of fiscal revenues in the post-colonial decades, with a special focus on the critical juncture of independence. We find that very few countries achieved significant progress in fiscal capacity between the end of the colonial period and today, if we set aside income drawn from mineral resources. This is not explained by a lasting collapse of fiscal capacity at the time of independence. From 1960 to today, the reliance on mineral resource revenues increased on average and dependence on international commodity prices persisted, with few exceptions. The relative contribution of trade taxes declined after the structural adjustments, and lost trade revenues were not compensated by a sufficient increase in domestic taxes. However, for the most recent period, we do note an improvement in the capacity to collect taxes on the domestic economy. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03420664&r= |
| By: | Agüero, Jorge M. |
| Abstract: | Policy makers and international organizations often argue that teenage pregnancy affects girls’ life trajectories by, for example, limiting their employment opportunities. These concerns are amplified in regions with high teen pregnancy rates such as Latin America. We use a unique dataset from Colombia that allows us to instrument for early motherhood with the age at menarche. We find that teen pregnancy reduces school attainment and increases the number of children ever born. However, when considering eight indicators of labor supply, including labor force participation, type of job and occupation while accounting for multiple hypothesis testing, we find that much (if not all) of the negative effects on labor supply attributed to teen motherhood are due to selection. Our findings weaken the claim that early motherhood leads to a path of low-quality employment or a misallocation of talent due to job sorting. We discuss the role that family network and co-residence plays as a mechanism to buffer the effects of early motherhood on labor supply. |
| Keywords: | Cuidado infantil, Educación, Estudiantes, Familia, Investigación socioeconómica, Jóvenes, Mujer, Niñez, Políticas públicas, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:1727&r= |
| By: | Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean Luc; Dikgang, Johane; Muteba Mwamba, John W.; Gelo, Dambala |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether the effects of weather variability in temperature and precipitation on agricultural output are short- or long-run. In fact, the study addresses two policy-relevant questions: (1) Does temperature or precipitation variability affect agricultural output, and if so, is the effect short- or long-term? (2) Is the effect of weather variability on agricultural output homogenous across East Africa? However, there is clear evidence of cross-country dependency. If cross-sectional dependency exists among the cross-sectional countries under investigation, the first generation of panel data techniques is not applicable. We use data from the FAOSTAT for 1961 to 2016 for East African countries, while climate-related variables (temperature and precipitation) are from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We find that variability in temperature has a long-run impact on agricultural output, while variability in precipitation has a short-run effect. However, after considering the heterogeneity among countries, there is evidence of the long-run effect of precipitation variability in some countries. |
| Keywords: | Climate variability, agricultural output, cross-sectional dependency, heterogeneity |
| JEL: | Q1 Q2 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110771&r= |
| By: | Getahun, Tigabu; Fetene, Gebeyehu |
| Abstract: | This study examines the nexus among production diversity, market participation, and consumption diversity in smallholder households. It identifies the main factors that influence smallholder farm households’ decision to diversify production and evaluates the effect of production diversity and market participation on consumption diversity. To this end, we use a three-wave panel data of 7110 households in rural Ethiopia. The estimation results from the Mundlak Fixed Effects instrumental method suggest that risk-averse households, households with larger cultivated land, households with larger family size and family labor, and households who participate in community meetings are more likely to diversify their production. The results further reveal that production diversity has a statistically significant and positive effect on the consumption diversity of household members, but not dietary diversity of children and women. We find that market integration is more relevant in improving nutrition than production diversity. These results suggest that policies that merely focus on encouraging smallholder farmers to diversify production would not be that effective unless they are coupled with interventions that aim to integrate smallholder farmers to the market. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2021–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:316382&r= |
| By: | Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jorge A. Bonilla (ULA - Universidad de Los Andes [Venezuela]) |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the literature on air pollution and health by assessing an additional channel, the effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on health. Currently, there is a vast literature on the effects of urban pollution on health. Our research, unlike other studies, jointly investigates the effects of pollution, ENSO and local weather on health. On the one hand, ENSO manifests itself as an extreme climatic shock that follows certain seasonality and influences weather. It may also have an impact on floods, droughts and agriculture inducing changes in food markets or a loss of household income, which also affect health. On the other hand, health outcomes are affected by other factors which follow separate mechanisms to the previous ones. Therefore, pollutant impacts on health may be interpreted as separate effects from other shocks mediated through ENSO. Using a database from 1998 to 2015 on air quality and vital statistics for Bogotá, and ENSO information, we find that across several specifications, ENSO affects birth weight and the probability of low birth weight after separating pollution and classical local weather impacts. Interestingly, the effect on birth weight of ENSO are several times larger than the impacts of pollution. Being exposed to ENSO may decrease birth weight up to 1.3%, while an increase of 1 ppb of SO2 or 1 µg/m3 of PM25 might reduce birth weight up to 0.3% or 0.14%, respectively. From a policy point of view, these results are relevant because regardless of the measure of pollution that we employ, the amount of the impacts exhibited by climatic shocks via ENSO events dominate. |
| Keywords: | Climate change,Health,ENSO Index,El Niño,La Niña,weather,Pollution,Bogotá |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03429482&r= |
| By: | Hisahiro Naito; Askar Ismailov; Albert Benson Kimaro |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of the use of mobile money services on borrowing and saving using data from Tanzania. We estimate the causal effect of the use of mobile money on borrowing, saving, and receiving remittances by applying a two-stage least squares estimation using the shortest distance to the border of the areas with multiple mobile networks, which is a proxy for accessibility to a mobile network, as an instrumental variable, while controlling for distance to financial institutions, population density of the residence, night light luminosity, and other important covariates. We find that when a household experiences a negative shock, mobile money non-users increase borrowing, while mobile money users do not. Further, the use of mobile money increases the probability of saving in mobile money savings accounts and receiving remittances, while it decreases the probability of saving in less liquid assets such as livestock. On the other hand, we find that the effect of the use of mobile money on receiving remittances is the same for those who experience a negative shock and those who do not. These results indicate that the use of mobile money increases the receipt of remittances regardless of negative shocks and changes the saving portfolio, allowing a household to prepare for negative shocks. Hence, a household that uses mobile money does not need to increase borrowing in the face of a negative shock. Consistent with this interpretation, we find that experiencing a negative shock does not decrease the livelihood of mobile money users, while it does reduce that of non-users. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2021-002&r= |
| By: | David de la Croix (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Paula E. Gobbi (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium and CEPR, London) |
| Abstract: | Global population growth remains one of the major challenges of the twenty-first century. This is particularly true for African countries which have been undergoing their demographic transitions. To investigate whether predicted increasing population density and urbanization can help to stabilize African population, we construct a database for 84 georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) samples including 947,191 individuals in sub-Saharan Africa and match each location with gridded population density from NASA. We apply a proportional hazard model to evaluate the quantitative impact of local population density on the transitions from childlessness to motherhood, and from celibacy to marriage. Moving from the 5th to the 95th percentile of population density increases the median age at first birth by 2.2 years. This roughly decreases completed fertility by half a child. The same increase in population density increases the median age at first marriage by 3.3 years. These findings contribute to the understanding of why fertility has not dropped in Africa as fast as expected. One part of the answer is that population density remains low. Yet the total effect of increased density on fertility remains limited and counting on it to stabilize the population would be unrealistic. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Homeostasis, Africa, Population density |
| Date: | 2021–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2021026&r= |
| By: | Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon; Mr. Adil Mohommad; Charlotte Sandoz |
| Abstract: | At the macro level, productivity is driven by technology and the efficiency of resource allocation, as outcomes of firms’ decision making. The relatively high level of resource misallocation in India’s formal manufacturing sector is well documented. We build on this research to further investigate the drivers of misallocation, exploiting micro-level variation across Indian states. We find that states with less rigid labor markets have lesser misallocation. We also examine the interaction of labor market rigidities with informality which is a key feature of India’s labor markets. Our results suggest that reducing labor market rigidities in states with high informality has a net positive effect on aggregate productivity. |
| Keywords: | Misallocation;India;Firm level;Structural reforms.;WP;price distortion;product market regulation;revenue TFP;balance sheet data;exit from informality;firm TFPR |
| Date: | 2021–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/051&r= |
| By: | Robert John Kolesar (Abt Associates, UA - University of Antwerp, Cambodian Ministry of Economy and Finance, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Guido Erreygers (UA - University of Antwerp); Wim van Dam (ITM - Institute of Tropical Medicine [Antwerp]); Vanara Chea (Cambodian Ministry of Economy and Finance); Theany Choeurng (Cambodian Ministry of Economy and Finance); Soklong Leng (Cambodian Ministry of Economy and Finance) |
| Abstract: | Financial risk protection is a core dimension of Universal Health Coverage. Hardship financing, defined as borrowing and selling land or assets to pay for healthcare, is a measure of last recourse. To inform efforts to improve Cambodia's social health protection system we analyze 2019-2020 Cambodia Socioeconomic Survey data to assess hardship financing, illness and injury related productivity loss, and estimate related economic impacts. We apply two-stage Instrumental Variable multiple regression to address endogeneity relating to net income. More than 98,500 households or 2.7% of the total population resorted to hardship financing over the past year. Factors significantly increasing risk are having an Equity card, higher out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures, illness or injury related productivity loss, and spending of savings. The economic burden from annual lost productivity from illness or injury amounts to USD 459.9 million or 1.7% of GDP. The estimated household economic cost related to hardship financing is USD 250.8 million or 0.9% of GDP. Such losses can be mitigated with policy measures such as linking a catastrophic health coverage mechanism to the Health Equity Funds, capping interest rates on health-related loans, and using loan guarantees to incentivize microfinance institutions and banks to refinance health-related, high-interest loans from money lenders. |
| Keywords: | social health protection,poverty,financial risk protection,Universal Health Coverage,hardship financing |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03437399&r= |
| By: | Estrada, Ricardo; Gignoux, Jérémie; Hatrick, Agustina |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the admission of a student to an elite school changes the schooling outcomes of younger cohorts in the student’s origin school in Peru. Using a sharp regression discontinuity design, the analysis finds that the admission of an older schoolmate increases the probability that students in origin schools will apply and gain admission to the same elite school system. The effect is concentrated among students whose parents have low education levels, which indicates a process of information diffusion. Furthermore, there is a slightly positive effect on the learning achievement of potential applicants and no negative effect on the learning of students who are ineligible to apply. Overall, the findings show that selective schools can have effects that go beyond their own students and indicate that role models can be an effective mechanism for increasing the demand from high-achieving, low-income students for high-quality education. |
| Keywords: | Educación, Estudiantes, Familia, Habilidades y destrezas, Investigación socioeconómica, Jóvenes, Políticas públicas, Sector académico, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:1708&r= |
| By: | Cheng, Zhiming (University of New South Wales); Guo, Liwen (University of New South Wales); Smyth, Russell (Monash University); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales) |
| Abstract: | We use data from China Family Panel Studies to examine the effects of being a child or adolescent in China's Great Famine on the likelihood of being in energy poverty in adulthood. We find that a one unit increase in the intensity of the Famine, measured by the number of excess deaths per 100 people, is associated with a 1.8-3.5 percentage points decline in the probability of being in energy poverty in adulthood, depending on the exact specification and measure of energy poverty. We find that personal income is a channel through which being a child or adolescent during the Great Famine affects the proclivity to be in energy poverty later in life. These findings are robust to alternative ways of measuring childhood adversity and energy poverty. |
| Keywords: | childhood adversity, energy poverty, China, the Chinese Great Famine |
| JEL: | J13 I32 Q41 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14809&r= |
| By: | Diaz-Cayeros, Alberto (Stanford University); Espinosa-Balbuena, Juan (Stanford University); Jha, Saumitra |
| Abstract: | It is well-established that the Conquest of the Americas by Europeans led to catastrophic declines in indigenous populations. However, less is known about the conditions under which indigenous communities were able to overcome the onslaught of disease and violence that they faced. Drawing upon a rich set of sources, including Aztec tribute rolls and early Conquest censuses, we develop a new disaggregated dataset on the pre-Conquest economic, epidemiological and political conditions both in 11,888 potential settlement locations in the historic core of Mexico and specifically in 1093 actual settlements recorded in an early Conquest-era census, the Suma de Visitas (1548). Of these 1093 settlements, we show that 37% had disappeared entirely by 1790. Yet, despite being subject to Conquest-era violence, subsequent coercion and multiple pandemics that led average populations in those settlements to fall from 2377 to 128 by 1646, 13% would still end the colonial era larger than they started. We show that both indigenous settlement survival durations and population levels through the colonial period are robustly predicted, not just by Spanish settler choices or by their diseases, but also by the extent to which indigenous communities could themselves leverage non- replicable and non-expropriable resources and skills from the pre-Columbian period that would prove complementary to global trade. Thus indigenous opportunities and agency played important roles in shaping their own resilience. |
| JEL: | I15 N36 N76 N96 O10 P48 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3977&r= |
| By: | Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm |
| Abstract: | This paper has investigated the utilization of non-reciprocal (or unilateral) trade preferences (NRTPs) provided by QUAD countries on poverty in recipient-countries. It uses a panel dataset of 77 beneficiaries of NRTPs over the period of 2002-2019, and considers two main blocks of NRTPs, namely 'Generalized System of Preferences' (GSP) programs and 'other trade preferences programs'. The analysis relies on two main indicators of poverty, i.e., the poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 and the poverty gap at $1.90, but also provides a robustness check using indicators of poverty at $3.20 and $5.50. Empirical findings obtained from the use of the two-step generalized methods of moments indicate that over the full sample, an increase in the utilization rates of both GSP programs and other trade preferences programs is associated with poverty reduction in beneficiary countries, with the magnitude of this effect being higher for least developed countries (LDCs) than for other countries in the full sample. Additionally, GSP programs and other trade preferences programs are strongly complementary in helping reduce poverty in beneficiary countries. Finally, the effect of the utilization of each type of NRTPs on poverty works through the economic complexity channel, as the greater the level of economic complexity, the higher is the negative effect of the utilization of these NRTPs on poverty. |
| Keywords: | Utilization of non-reciprocal trade preferences,Poverty,QUAD countries,Beneficiary countries |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:247346&r= |