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on Development |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Lanjouw, Peter F. |
| Abstract: | Measuring poverty trends and dynamics is an important undertaking for poverty reduction policies, which is further highlighted by the SDG goal 1 on eradicating poverty by 2030. We provide a broad overview of the pros and cons of poverty imputation in data-scarce environments, update recent review papers, and point to the latest research on the topics. We briefly review two common uses of poverty imputation methods that aim at tracking poverty over time and estimating poverty dynamics. We also discuss new areas for imputation. |
| Keywords: | poverty,imputation,consumption,wealth index,synthetic panels,household survey |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:904&r= |
| By: | Livini Donath; Oliver Morrissey; Trudy Owens |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the welfare difference between youth (aged 15-35) and adult (aged over 35) headed households between 2001 and 2018 is attributable to differences in educational attainment following Universal Primary Education (UPE) in Tanzania. The recentered influence function (RIF) decomposition method applied to household budget survey (HBS) data for 2001 and 2018 reveals that the increase in youth educational attainment between 2001 and 2018 is significant in explaining the difference in welfare (measured as per adult equivalent household consumption relative to the national poverty line) between the 2001 and 2018 youth cohorts. The findings suggest that if the youth in 2001 had the same education endowment as their 2018 counterparts, their welfare would have been about 20% higher. The findings also show that differences in educational attainment are significant factors explaining differences in welfare between youth and adult headed households in each year. If adults had the same level of educational attainment as the youth, their welfare would have been about 40% and 32% higher in 2001 and 2018 respectively. Although there is evidence that returns to education declined for the youth (consistent with more educated youth entering the labour market), this does not appear to have had a significant effect on household welfare. |
| Keywords: | welfare, youth, universal primary education, decomposition |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:21/04&r= |
| By: | Baquedano, Felix G.; Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe; Valdes, Constanza; Ajewole, Kayode |
| Abstract: | This report presents results from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service’s (ERS) International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) analysis, which uses a demand-driven framework that evaluates consumer responsiveness to changes in prices and incomes for 76 low- and middle-income countries. Reflecting 2021’s anticipated lower income levels, despite anticipated growth for most countries, the number of food insecure people is estimated at 1.2 billion, almost 291 million higher than in 2020. A sharp increase in global food security was experienced in 2020, as compared to 2019, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of the additional food insecure people in 2021 are located in the Central and South Asia (64.1 percent or 186.8 million) sub-region—including India, which drives food security trends in the Asia region. While the Sub-Saharan Africa region is projected to account for 20.6 percent (60 million) of the additional food insecure population. The remaining additional 15.3 percent (44.7 million) food insecure people in 2021 are located in other Asian sub-regions, Latin America and the Caribbean, and North Africa. The prevalence of food insecurity in 2021 for the countries in the assessment is estimated at 30.8 percent of the overall population in the countries, an increase of 6.8 percentage points relative to the 2020 estimate. In 2031, the number of food insecure people is projected to decline from the 2021 estimate by 47.4 percent (637.7 million people), which is 14.0 percent of the projected population of the countries included in this assessment. Given the evolving nature of the impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and the long-term effects on individual country economies, the estimation results presented in this report contain a high degree of uncertainty. It is important to note the projections do not consider the impacts of unknown future events—such as climate change, armed conflict, and political and economic instability. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:312952&r= |
| By: | Livini Donath; Oliver Morrissey; Trudy Owens |
| Abstract: | This paper employs Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regressions to examine the distributional effect of education on earnings in East Africa, using data from the Living Standards and Measurement Study (LSMS) for Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda. Taking into consideration the pay period of the workers, the paper investigates how education affects earnings at various points of the earnings distribution; how education affects earnings inequality; and how much of the gender gap in earnings can be attributed to gender differences in educational attainment. Results show heterogenous effects of education on earnings along the earnings distribution in all pay periods. Generally, the effect is more substantial for workers reporting monthly earnings than their daily and weekly counterparts. The results also show that in each pay period, there is significant wage inequality between workers in the top decile of earnings and those in the bottom four deciles. Education can either increase or reduce wage inequality depending on the period in which the worker is paid, i.e., education is associated with an increase in inequality for workers paid weekly and reduced inequality for those paid daily and monthly. Significant gender gaps in earnings were found for Tanzania and Uganda but not for Malawi. The decomposition results suggest that gender differences in educational attainment significantly explain the gender wage gap for Tanzania and Uganda. The paper recommends, rather than pooling, researchers should obtain separate estimate for each period for more reliable results |
| Keywords: | Earnings decomposition, wage inequality, pay period, Tanzania |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:21/02&r= |
| By: | Bethencourt, Carlos; Marrero, Gustavo A.; Ngoudji, Charlie Y. |
| Abstract: | More than 90% of people suffering from Malaria live in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We construct, for the first time, a Malaria Policy Index (MaPI) for 44 SSA countries to quantify and compare each country’s antimalarial policy actions between 1990 and 2017. The MaPI compiles information on intervention strategies such as prevention, diagnosis and treatment (Pillar 1) and the use of antimalarial therapies and tests (Pillar 2). We find that: antimalarial policy implementation is a widespread phenomenon in the region from the mid-2000s on; initial differences in per capita GDP, quality of institutions and malaria burden are not associated with the current levels of policy implementation and; there exists a first stage of policy divergence (before mid-2000s), followed by a strong convergence period. The convergence period is associated with an unprecedented increase in international malaria fight funding, which was unevenly distributed across countries according to their necessities to eradicate the disease. Using a difference-in-difference events study design and a distributed lag model approach, we estimate the effect of antimalarial policy implementation increases on subsequent changes in malaria mortality within SSA countries. We find that policies included in Pillar 1 are key to reduce within-country malaria mortality: an increase of 10 p.p. in policies implemented in this pillar generates a cumulative malaria mortality decrease of about 6 p.p. after five years. |
| Keywords: | Antimalarial policies, composite index, malaria death; Sub-Saharan Africa, external health aid; event study design |
| JEL: | I15 O15 O22 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108570&r= |
| By: | Orazio P. Attanasio (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Lina Cardona-Sosa (World Bank); Carlos Medina (Banco de la República); Costas Meghir (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Christian Posso (Banco de la República) |
| Abstract: | Conditional Cash transfer (CCT) programs have been shown to have positive effects on a variety of outcomes including education, consumption and health visits, amongst others. We estimate the long-run impacts of the urban version of Familias en Acción, the Colombian CCT program on crime, teenage pregnancy, high school dropout and college enrollment using a Regression Discontinuity design on administrative data. ITT estimates show a reduction on arrest rates of 2.7pp for men and a reduction on teenage pregnancy of 2.3pp for women. High school dropout rates were reduced by 5.8pp and college enrollment was increased by 1.7pp for men. |
| Keywords: | CCT programs, human capital accumulation, crime, adolescent pregnancy, RDD |
| JEL: | D04 K42 I23 I28 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2293&r= |
| By: | Ashwini Deshpande; Naila Kabeer |
| Abstract: | Based on primary data from India, this paper analyses the reasons underlying women's low labour force participation. In developing countries, women engaged in unpaid economic work in family enterprises are often not counted as workers. Women are involved in expenditure-saving activities, i.e. productive work within the family, over and above domestic chores and care work. We document the fuzziness of the boundary between domestic and unpaid (and therefore invisible) productive work which leads to mismeasurement of women's work. |
| Keywords: | Female labour force participation, India, Social norms, Unpaid labour |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-130&r= |
| By: | Dilip Mookherjee; Anusha Nath |
| Abstract: | Past research has provided evidence of clientelistic politics in delivery of programme benefits by local governments, or gram panchayats (GPs), and manipulation of GP programme budgets by legislators and elected officials at upper tiers in West Bengal, India. Using household panel survey data spanning 1998-2008, we examine the consequences of clientelism for distributive equity. We find that targeting of anti-poverty programmes was progressive both within and across GPs and is explained by greater 'vote responsiveness' of poor households to receipt of welfare benefits. |
| Keywords: | Clientelism, Governance, Targeting, Budget |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-125&r= |
| By: | Satoshi Shimizutani (JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development); Eiji Yamada (JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development) |
| Abstract: | This study utilizes variations in exposure to the armed conflict to examine the long-term consequences of civil war in Tajikistan on a variety of outcomes twenty years after the end of the civil war. We confirm a negative and significant effect on completing basic education for girls exposed to the war during their school ages while other girls were able to attain higher education levels than previously. Moreover, we see adverse effects on employment status for males exposed to armed conflicts in their primary school ages and long-term effects in international migration status for those males. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan, Civil war, Long-term consequences, Schooling, International migration |
| JEL: | D1 I2 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2021-014&r= |
| By: | Chau, Nancy H.; Basu, Arnab K.; Byambasuren, Tsenguunjav; Khanna, Neha |
| Abstract: | How serious is indoor air pollution (IAP) a mortality threat to young children? This paper estimates the causal effect of cooking fuel choice – a predominant cause of IAP – on infant mortality in India (1992-2016), where the most health-endangering biomass fuels are also most commonplace. Leveraging the speed of change in forest cover and land ownership for identification, we find polluting fuel choice to impose highly heterogeneous local infant mortality effects by age group (from insignificant to 4:7 percent increase) – implying the loss of two lives every 1,000 live births. These conclusions are robust to alternative estimation strategies and additional controls. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cudaeb:312521&r= |
| By: | Magambo, Isaiah; Dikgang, Johane; Gelo, Dambala; Tregenna, Fiona |
| Abstract: | This article examines an important externality that polluting industries may impose on peoples’ health in their proximities. To ascertain the actual health outcomes and expenditure associated with mining pollution, this study (on a gold mine in Tanzania) used the Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) approach, which matches the social, economic, and environmental risk-factor characteristics of households in treated and control groups. It also used a linear and logistics regression using CEM Weight to obtain robust treatment effects. The results show that health outcomes (proxied by stunting rate) were significant within 10km of the nearby mine. The probability of a child in the treated group being stunted was 0.226 greater than for a child with similar social, economic, and environmental risk factors in the control group. Moreover, the OLS regression suggested similarly that the children in the treated group had height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ06) of 0.827 less than for similar children in the control group. Further regression of HAZ06 on the distance from the mine provided robust evidence that health scores (HAZ06) among children increased statistically by 0.0212 for every kilometre they were further away from the mining site. These findings suggest that the less a person is exposed to mining pollutions (i.e., the further from the mine), the less the health impact. Furthermore, the results showed that households within 10 km of the mine are spending 55 202 Tanzanian shillings (TZS) more on health per person per year than those further than 10km away. The regression of per-capita health expenditure on distance provides more evidence that healthcare expenditure per capita decreases by TZS 712 for every 1km increase in the average distance from the residence to the mining site. Drawing intuition from the hedonic theory, we further interpreted the results in terms of ‘willingness to accept' (WTA); it was found that on average, the households staying within 10km of the mine (i.e., the victims of mining pollution) are willing to accept (WTA) minimum per-capita compensation for health expenditure of TZS 55 202 per annum (equivalent to USD 24.75). The minimum WTA increases closer to the mine site and decreases further away. These findings have an important implication for environmental and industrial policies. They suggest environmental regulations should be tightened, to ensure that the pollution emitted by mines is within acceptable limits for health as laid down by the WHO. Moreover, there is a need for a thorough review of industrial policies (especially in terms of local content) to ensure that compensation policies and local multiplier effects are adequate to offset the negative health and income effects. |
| Keywords: | Mining pollution, health effects, willingness to accept |
| JEL: | I15 Q32 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108800&r= |
| By: | Guven, Cahit; Tong, Lan; Ulubasoglu, Mehmet |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of a large-scale System of Rice Intensification (SRI) program on the water productivity of rice in Vietnam by exploiting the provincial and time variations in SRI uptake and irrigation water supply over the period 2000–2012. Our findings document that the world’s second-largest rice exporter could produce four million tons of more rice with same water supply in the reasonably achievable case of 20% SRI uptake across its provinces. In addition, we find that SRI increases the output of other crops too, due at least partly to its possible water savings and soil nutrition preservation in rice production. Moreover, we show that SRI is more likely to be adopted in provinces with stronger quality of provincial institutions and weaker agricultural capital base. Numerous selectivity and randomization tests affirm that the water productivity effect of SRI is robust to selection in SRI uptake at province and district levels and addressing potential unobservables and omitted variables problems. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Technology; SRI; Impact Evaluation; Water Productivity |
| JEL: | O13 O33 Q18 Q25 |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108768&r= |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Orbeta, Aniceto C. Jr.; Corpus, John Paul P.; Paqueo, Vicente C.; Reyes, Celia M. |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of Microenterprise Development (MD) assistance on the labor supply, income, expenditure, savings, and capital investment of beneficiaries of Pantawid Pamilya, the Philippine government’s conditional cash transfers (CCT) program. The assistance is provided by the Sustainable Livelihood Program (SLP) of the Department of Social Welfare and Development. MD assistance consists of capacity building, group formation, and grants. We focus on MD assistance where the grant component consisted of the Seed Capital Fund (SCF)--a grant worth a maximum of PhP10,000 per beneficiary household used as startup capital or as additional capital for microenterprise. The microenterprise may be run individually or as a group. The evaluation is implemented through a matching design: SCF-recipient CCT households from January 2018 to June 2018 were matched with nonrecipient CCT households. We use data from a survey of 2,592 CCT households in 39 cities/municipalities. In our sample, 91 percent of SCF-recipient households were part of a group-managed business project. We find positive impacts on labor supply, but imprecisely estimated null impacts on household income, expenditure, savings, and capital expenditure. The lack of pre-intervention variables for matching, possible biases from self-selection and nonrandom selection of target areas, possible spillover effects, and insufficient power are some of the weaknesses of the study. Despite these limitations, qualitative data on business project implementation point to serious issues which support the null impacts found on household welfare. These include a substantial business closure rate, lack of participation among group members in business operation, lack of earning opportunities for group members, management issues, and low profitability. Moreover, cost-benefit analysis suggests that program costs outweigh program benefits. To improve SLP's effectiveness, the study recommends packaging the livelihood assistance with supporting interventions such as life skills coaching and savings promotion; recognizing the relative merits of group-based versus individual livelihood projects; improving project development and selection towards greater commercial viability; and strengthening existing supporting interventions such as capacity-building, business monitoring, and technical support. <p>Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | social protection, livelihood, microenterprise, Sustainable Livelihood Program |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-36&r= |
| By: | Kwame Adjei-Mantey (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Kenji Takeuchi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Peter Quartey (Institute of Statistical, Social & Economic Research (ISSER), University of Ghana) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of a clean cooking intervention on primary fuel choice and on households' willingness to pay for an improved LPG distribution model in Ghana. Using data obtained via a survey of 904 households in two beneficiary districts, we found that the intervention led to higher LPG usage. The program increases the probability of households choosing LPG as a primary cooking fuel by 24% and the rate of use of LPG among households by 33%. Furthermore, an analysis of willingness to pay shows that delivery preference is not statistically different between beneficiary and control groups. The distance to refill the cylinder significantly affects LPG usage and willingness to pay. A policy that brings LPG refill closer to households and reduces the time and money cost of accessing a refill station is key to increasing the adoption of LPG as the primary cooking fuel. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2120&r= |
| By: | Rosa Abraham; Rahul Lahoti; Hema Swaminathan |
| Abstract: | The impact of childbirth on the labour market participation of women has been discussed extensively in the context of developed countries, constraints on mothers' labour market participation and earnings being characterized as the 'motherhood penalty'. In the developing country context, and specifically for India, similar studies are limited, primarily due to the lack of longitudinal data. |
| Keywords: | child penalty, Childbirth, event study, India, Motherhood, Labour market participation |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-128&r= |
| By: | Matteo Bobba; Tim Ederer; Gianmarco León-Ciliotta; Christopher A. Neilson; Marco Nieddu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how increasing teacher compensation at hard-to-staff schools can reduce inequality in access to qualified teachers. Leveraging an unconditional change in the teacher compensation structure in Peru, we first show causal evidence that increasing salaries at less desirable locations attracts better quality applicants and improves student test scores. We then estimate a model of teacher preferences over local amenities, school characteristics, and wages using geocoded job postings and rich application data from the nationwide centralized teacher assignment system. Our estimated model suggests that the current policy is both inefficient and not large enough to effectively undo the inequality of initial conditions that hard-to-staff schools and their communities face. Counterfactual analyses that incorporate equilibrium sorting effects characterize alternative wage schedules and quantify the cost of reducing structural inequality in the allocation of teacher talent across schools. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, teacher school choice, teacher wages, matching with contracts |
| JEL: | J31 J45 I21 C93 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1788&r= |
| By: | Ashwini Deshpande (Ashoka University); Jitendra Singh (Ashoka University) |
| Abstract: | The stubbornly low and declining level of labor force participation rate (LFPR) of Indian women has prompted a great deal of attention with a focus on factors con- straining women’s labour supply. Using 12 rounds of a high frequency household panel survey, we demonstrate volatility in Indian women’s labour market engagement, as they exit and (re)enter the labor force multiple times over short period for reasons unrelated to marriage, child-birth, or change in household income. We demonstrate how these frequent transitions exacerbate the issue of measurement of female LFPR. Women elsewhere in the world face a “motherhood penalty†in the form of adverse labour market outcomes after the first childbirth. We evaluate the motherhood penalty in the Indian context and find that mothers with new children have a lower base level of LFPR, but there is no sharp decline around the time of childbirth. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition of determinants of female LFPR suggests that none of the total fall (10 percentage points) in our study period is explained by a change in supply-side demo- graphic characteristics. We suggest that frequent transitions, as well as fall in LFPR, are consistent with the demand-side constraints, viz., that women’s participation is falling due unavailability of steady gainful employment. The high unemployment rate and industry-wise composition of total employment provide suggestive evidence that women’s participation is falling as women are likely to be displaced from employment by male workers. We show that women’s employment is likely to suffer more than men’s due to negative economic shocks, as was seen during the fallout of demonetisation of 86 percent of Indian currency in 2016. Our analysis contests the prominent narrative that women are voluntarily dropping out of the labor force due to an increase in household income and conservative social norms. Our results suggest that India needs to focus more on creating jobs for women to retain them in the labor force. |
| Keywords: | Female labour force participation rate; Employment; Social norms; India; labour demand |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:65&r= |
| By: | Jenny Guardado; Leonard Wantchekon |
| Abstract: | Vote-buying?or the pre-electoral distribution of private goods in exchange for support at the ballot box?is often blamed for the poor economic performance of many sub-Saharan countries. For instance, vote-buying may undermine accountability and the implementation of sound development policies by pressuring individuals to vote against their own interests. Yet, these effects depend on vote-buying leading to electoral outcomes that would not have occurred otherwise. |
| Keywords: | Elections, vote-buying, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-129&r= |
| By: | Colonnelli, Emanuele; Lagaras, Spyridon; Ponticelli, Jacopo; Prem, Mounu; Tsoutsoura, Margarita |
| Abstract: | We study how the disclosure of corrupt practices affects firms. We construct novel firm-level measures of involvement in corrupt practices using randomized audits of public procurement in Brazil. On average, firms exposed by the anti-corruption program grow larger after the audits, despite experiencing a decrease in procurement contracts. Using investment-, loan-, and worker- level data, we show that exposed firms adapt to the loss of government contracts by changing their investment strategy. They increase capital investment and borrow more to finance such investment, while we see no change in their internal organization. We provide qualitative support to our results by conducting new face-to-face surveys with business owners of government-dependent firms. |
| Keywords: | Anti-corruption program; Audits; Corruption; Firms; Brazil |
| JEL: | G D73 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rie:riecdt:83&r= |
| By: | Hnatkovska, Viktoria; Hou, Chenyu; Lahiri, Amartya |
| Abstract: | India has witnessed a remarkable catch-up by the historically disadvantaged scheduled castes and tribes (SC/STs) towards non-SC/ST levels in their education attainment levels, occupation choices as well as wages during the period 1983-2012. Using a heterogenous agent, multi-sector model we show that sectoral productivity growth during this period can explain 75 percent of the observed wage convergence between the castes. Inter-sectoral net flows of workers are key as they account for 3/4 of the predicted convergence. Absent these net flows, the caste wage gaps would have marginally widened. Selection effects, while present in these net flows, account for just a quarter of the predicted wage convergence. We also find that affirmative action policies that reduced skilling costs for SC/STs may have reduced the levels of the caste wage gaps at all times but played a limited role in accounting for the dynamics of the wage gap. Growth was key for the dynamic wage convergence. |
| Keywords: | Castes, convergence, labor |
| JEL: | J6 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108980&r= |