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on Development |
| By: | Himanshu; Peter Lanjouw |
| Abstract: | This paper examines income mobility in developing countries. We start by synthesizing findings from the available evidence on relative mobility and poverty dynamics. We then describe evidence on economic mobility obtained via synthetic panels constructed from cross-section data. We echo earlier literature in pointing to substantial movement across income classes by households over time: poverty is not inevitably a chronic condition. However, less clear are the factors driving the observed 'churning'. |
| Keywords: | Intragenerational mobility, Intergenerational Mobility, Welfare dynamics, Developing countries, India, Chronic Poverty, transitory poverty |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-7&r=all |
| By: | Guido Matias Cortes; Diego M. Morris |
| Abstract: | The decline of employment in middle-wage, routine task intensive jobs has been well documented for the USA. Increased offshoring towards lower-income countries such as Mexico has been proposed as a potential driver of this decline. Our analysis provides a unique and new approach to address the question of whether trade and offshoring have impacted the occupational structure of employment in the USA by comparing the evolution of employment across 175 detailed occupational categories in both countries. |
| Keywords: | Employment, employment structure, routine employment, Trade, offshoring, Mexico |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-11&r=all |
| By: | Etienne ESPAGNE; Nicolas DE LAUBIER-LONGUET MARX |
| Abstract: | This paper measures the marginal impact of climate variability on Vietnamese households’ income. We combine survey data from the Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) database with daily climate data from the Climate Prediction Center to estimate the response function of Vietnamese households’ revenues to past climate variability. We focus on the non-linearity of the response and notably on the impacts of extremely warm days. We find that on average an additional day above 33°C is associated with a decrease of the yearly income by 1.3%. This strong effect is not specific to the agricultural sector. It is highest for the lowest deciles of the revenue distribution. Using projection scenarios under the Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5, we find an estimated impact of global warming of up to 100% of households’ revenues in 2090s in some regions (Northern region and the Red River Delta area) under RCP8.5. These strong negative impacts are also likely to be specifically concentrated on poor households and to increase revenue inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en9477&r=all |
| By: | Amidou Assima; Giacomo Zanello; Melinda Smale |
| Abstract: | The Malian Government has introduced the Fertilizer Subsidy Program as a policy strategy to increase agricultural productivity and food production with the aim of improving the food security and well-being of smallholder farm households. However, there is a lack of reliable evidence regarding the effects of the subsidy program. We tested the effects of fertilizer subsidies on diet quality of women of reproductive age by applying propensity score matching methods to farm household survey data collected in 2018. We found that subsidized fertilizer has a positive effect on overall women’s dietary diversity in the Niger Delta but is negatively associated with the overall dietary diversity in the Koutiala Plateau. One of the innovations of this study is that the dietary diversity score is broken down according to food supply sources. Analysis by component allows a thorough understanding of the channel through which the subsidized fertilizer program affects women's nutrition outcomes. A close look at the different components of women's dietary diversity reveals no effects on dietary diversity from the consumption of own production in either of the two zones. Analysis showed a negative impact of subsidized fertilizer on dietary diversity sourced from gift food in Niger Delta. Finally, we found that the effect of subsidized fertilizer on the dietary diversity sourced from purchased food was strong and positive in the Niger Delta, but negative in the Koutiala Plateau. The negative results for the Koutiala Plateau are not entirely surprising given the history of the “Sikasso Paradox.” Decomposing diet diversity by food source suggests that income is the main pathway linking subsidized fertilizers program to women’s nutrition outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303059&r=all |
| By: | Jason Snyder; Thomas Jayne; Jordan Chamberlin; Paul Samboko; Nicole Mason |
| Abstract: | There is a general consensus in the economics literature that growth in agricultural productivity is an engine of economic structural transformation in low income countries via indirect linkages and multiplier effects. However, the empirical support for this hypothesis in the Africa is very limited, and criticisms have been raised as to its applicability in the African context. In this study, we estimate the strength of possible ‘labor linkages’ among small farmers in Zambia, helping to provide a much-needed empirical micro-foundation in the African context. In particular, we use nationally representative surveys to estimate the relationship between multiple years of lagged district level crop productivity and small farm household non-farm labor participation. We find that a doubling of average district crop productivity leads to a 13%-17% increase in non-farm labor participation among farm households. Moreover, this effect is most pronounced among smaller farms; a doubling of median district crop productivity among farms under two hectares cultivated leads to a 24%-31% increase in in non-farm labor participation among non-farm households. The results lend some credibility to the structural transformation hypothesis, and in particular, the idea of labor linkages, in the African setting. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303388&r=all |
| By: | Castañeda Garza, Diego; Bengtsson, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper, building on new archival research, presents the first comprehensive estimates of income inequality in Mexico before 1950.We usethe social tables method of combining census information with group-level income data to reconstructMexican incomesand their distributionfor four benchmark years, 1895,1910,1930 and 1940.The Gini coefficient for incomes is 0.48in 1895, 0.47in 1910, 0.41in 1930 and 0.51in 1940.The evidence points to inequality as a multi-faceted phenomenon. Mexican incomeinequalitywas shaped by the economic policies of the various regimes, as well as the growth possibilities of various sectors. The revolution of the 1910s entailed reforms(of the labormarket and of land ownership) which equalized incomes, but when these reforms were substantially reversed, inequality rose again.The developments are in line with a new branch of the literature that recognizesthe importance for inequality dynamics of land ownership.The levelsof inequality in the long term display ratherstrong persistence, in line with institutionalist arguments. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality; Income distribution; Socialtables; Mexico; Mexican revolution; Political economy |
| JEL: | D63 E01 N36 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0212&r=all |
| By: | Michael Danquah; Abdul Malik Iddrisu; Williams Ohemeng; Alfred Barimah |
| Abstract: | The financial sector in rural areas, where most of the poor people in sub-Saharan Africa are found, has transformed massively in recent times, notably through the increased penetration of several types of rural financial intermediaries in addition to rural and community banks and microfinance institutions. Using recent household survey data, we ascertain the access of rural populations to various types of financial services, and the influence of rural financial intermediation on poverty reduction, in Ghana. |
| Keywords: | rural financial intermediation, Poverty reduction, Welfare, Financial inclusion, Ghana |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-2&r=all |
| By: | Bilal Siddiqi (University of California, Los Angeles); Darin Christensen (University of Chicago); Oeindrila Dube (Princeton University, NBER, Busara Center for Behavioral Economics, and Max Planck Institute for Collective Goods); Johannes Haushofer (University of California, Berkeley); Maarten Voors (Wageningen University) |
| Abstract: | Developing countries are characterized by high rates of mortality and morbidity. A potential contributing factor is the low utilization of health systems, stemming from the low perceived quality of care delivered by health personnel. This factor may be especially critical during crises, when individuals choose whether to cooperate with response efforts and frontline health personnel. We experimentally examine efforts aimed at improving health worker performance in the context of the 2014–15 West African Ebola crisis. Roughly two years before the outbreak in Sierra Leone, we randomly assigned two accountability interventions to government-run health clinics — one focused on community monitoring and the other gave status awards to clinic staff. We find that over the medium run, prior to the Ebola crisis, both interventions led to improvements in utilization of clinics and patient satisfaction with the health system. In addition, child health outcomes improved substantially in the catchment areas of community monitoring clinics. During the crisis, the interventions also led to higher reported Ebola cases, as well as lower mortality from Ebola—particularly in areas with community monitoring clinics. We explore three potential mechanisms: the interventions (1) increased the likelihood that patients reported Ebola symptoms and sought care; (2) unintentionally increased Ebola incidence; or (3) improved surveillance efforts. We find evidence consistent with the first: by building trust and confidence in health workers, and improving the perceived quality of care provided by clinics prior to the outbreak, the interventions encouraged patients to report and receive treatment. Our results suggest that accountability interventions not only have the power to improve health systems during normal times, but can additionally make health systems resilient to crises that may emerge over the longer run. |
| Keywords: | Sierra Leone; Disease control & prevention, Ebola epidemic, Government accountability, Health systems, Monitoring, Non-monetary incentives, Public service delivery |
| JEL: | I11 I15 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:17&r=all |
| By: | Yoko Kusunose; Nicole M. Mason; Solomon Tembo |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the effects of negative crop income shocks in one season persist in subsequent seasons due to reductions in crop inputs. If bad seasons cause household cash constraints to bind, and this results in the scaling back of the next season’s production, the next season’s crop income is also compromised, potentially creating a poverty trap. Troublingly, households most susceptible to such a poverty trap mechanism are likely to be those that rely the most on own-farm production and have the fewest sources of liquidity—in other words, the poorest. We use data from a three-wave (2001, 2004, and 2008), nationally-representative survey of smallholder farm households in Zambia to test for the effect of rainfall shocks—interacted with measures of household liquidity—on investment in maize production in the following season. We focus specifically on the ability (or inability) of farm households to invest in own-farm maize production in the form of mineral fertilizer use, improved seed use, and area allocated to maize. We use three liquidity measures: livestock, regular off-farm wage employment, and access to subsidies/loans for fertilizer purchase. A priori, we predict that the presence of such liquidity sources will protect maize investments from negative income shocks in the previous seasons. These liquidity measures may be endogenous to the input decisions; we therefore use panel data methods and an instrumental variables/control function approach. Additionally, we test whether reduced maize inputs do indeed cause reduced maize income and, ultimately, total income. Our results show that the effects of rainfall shocks in one agricultural season persist into the subsequent season in the form of reduced maize inputs. The estimated effect of reduced inputs on the following season’s income, however, is modest. However, we must keep in mind that this estimated modest effect is the average effect across all sampled households. Whether this mechanism constitutes a poverty trap for a particular household depends on that household's overall reliance on farm production, as well as the distribution of rainfall shocks that it faces. For households that rely overwhelmingly on crops and typically experience multiple deficit periods in bad years, even two or three consecutively bad years could still pose a poverty trap. Surprisingly, liquidity—as measured by livestock, salaried household members, and fertilizer subsidy access—does not increase households’ ability to smooth inputs. It is important to note, however, that livestock and salaried household members may not be appropriate liquidity measures for the poorer households in the sample. Given that inputs decrease as a result of (negative) rainfall shocks in previous seasons, and given the ability to observe rainfall shocks over Zambia at a fine scale, input divestment might be predicted, geographically, based on rainfall patterns. On a season-to-season basis, the allocation of resources through programs such as the Farmer Input Support Program (FISP) could be informed by these predictions of input divestment. That way, programs such as the FISP would pose less of a crowding-out threat to existing sources of fertilizer, and more effectively target the neediest communities each season. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303040&r=all |
| By: | Simone BERTOLI |
| Abstract: | We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anomalies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks, which can be due to differences in long-term climate conditions, migration perceptions, or adaptation capabilities. We find that droughts are associated with a higher probability of migration intentions in Senegal, Niger and Ivory Coast. The effect on international migration intentions are only significant in Niger. These effects are amplified, but qualitatively similar, when restricting the sample to rural low-skilled respondents. |
| Keywords: | Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Mauritanie, Niger, Sénégal |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–10–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en10272&r=all |
| By: | Sedai, Ashish Kumar (Department of Economics, Colorado State University); Nepal, Rabindra (Department of Acconting Economics and Finance, University of Wollongong); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of quality of electrification on empowerment of women in terms of economic autonomy, agency, mobility, decision-making abilities, and time allocation in fuel collection in India. It moves beyond the consensus of counting electrified households as a measure of progress in gender parity, and analyzes how the quality of electrification affects women’s intra-household bargaining power, labor sup-ply and fuel collection time. We develop a set of indices using principal component analysis from a large cross-section of gender-disaggregated survey. We use two stage least squares instrumental variables regression to assess the causal effect of access and hours of electricity on women’s empowerment using geographic instrumental variables along with district and caste fixed effects. The results show that quality of electrification has significant positive effects on all empowerment indices. However, the effect differs at the margin of deficiency, location, living standards and education. The study recommends revisiting the paradigm of access to electrification and women empowerment by focusing on the quality of not only extensive but also intensive electrification to enhance life and economic opportunities for women and their households. |
| Keywords: | Women empowerment; Quality of electrification; Instrumental variables |
| JEL: | D13 D63 H42 Q43 |
| Date: | 2020–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2020_010&r=all |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Lanjouw, Peter F. |
| Abstract: | We analyze the Indian National Sample Survey data spanning 1987/88–2011/12 to uncover patterns of transition into and out of different classes of the consumption distribution. At the aggregate level, income growth has accelerated, accompanied by accelerating poverty decline. Underlying these trends is a process of mobility, with 40–60 percent of the population transitioning between consumption classes and increasing mobility over time. Yet, the majority of those who escape poverty remain vulnerable. Most of those who are poor were also poor in the preceding period and, thus, are likely to be chronically poor. The characteristics of upwardly mobile households contrast with those of the poor; these households are also far less likely to experience downward mobility. We also find that states exhibit heterogenous mobility patterns. |
| Keywords: | intra-generational mobility,welfare dynamics,imputation,synthetic panel,India,National Sample Survey |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:535&r=all |
| By: | Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University); Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary non-civil conflict in Africa. Exploiting variations across artificial regions (i.e., grids of 50x50km) within an ethnicity's historical homeland, we document that both the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are concentrated close to historical ethnic borders. Following a theory-based instrumental variable approach, which generates a plausibly exogenous ethno-spatial partition of Africa, we find that grid cells with historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity and weak property rights. |
| Date: | 2020–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:africa:uqgxv&r=all |
| By: | Jason Snyder; Thomas Jayne; Nicole Mason; Paul Samboko |
| Abstract: | It is widely accepted that agricultural productivity growth generates important multiplier effects on the rest of the economy through indirect linkages. However, most of this evidence comes from Asia and Latin America. Micro-level evidence in support of this hypothesis in Sub-Saharan Africa is actually quite thin. This study estimates a reduced-form relationship between multi-year lagged district-level summaries of crop productivity and total, own-farm, and off-farm income in Zambia. We use nationally representative household survey data to analyze this relationship; the nature of these data is unique to Zambia. Findings show a strong link between district-level productivity and household own-farm income. A doubling of multi-year lagged median district crop productivity per hectare translates into a 25-33% increase in own-farm income after controlling for household and community factors. There is some evidence of a positive link between district-level productivity and total household income, but the relationship between district crop productivity and off-farm income is sensitive to the model specification and imprecisely measured, suggesting that some of the critiques of the multiplier hypothesis for contemporary Africa may be valid. However, when the lagged crop productivity measures are confined to small farms cultivating less than 2 hectares, we find some evidence of a positive contribution of increases in lagged district-level productivity to off farm income – a doubling of productivity leading to a 34% increase in off-farm income. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303057&r=all |
| By: | Moreno, L. E; Gallego, J.A.; Vargas, J. F |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of rural roads on armed conflict and illicit crops in Colombia over a fourteen year period of rapid growth of road investments. We estimate the causal impact of these interventions using micro-data of the royalties revenues to the transport sector at the municipal level, and implement a strategy of Difference-in-Differences with staggered adoption. The results show that new rural roads, in particular small projects known as placa-huella, have a positive causal effect on armed conflict and on coca crops. These unintended effects of road provision are mainly driven by the intensification of violence in wealthier municipalities. In these places, we find that the new connectivity leads to an increase in the production of legal crops. Hence, wealthier municipalities are more attractive to armed groups and more vulnerable to attacks that seek to expropriate these new rents. In addition, the institutional background seems to be determinant in the sign of the effect: in municipalities with qualified and stable institutions, road provision mitigates the development of illegal activity. These results highlight the importance of providing public goods in parallel with strengthening the local state capacity through reliable institutions. |
| Keywords: | Roads, Public Goods, Armed Conflict, Illegal Economies, Royalties |
| JEL: | H41 H54 O12 D2 D74 O11 O4 R4 |
| Date: | 2020–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:018154&r=all |
| By: | William J. Burke; Stephen Morgan; Thelma Namonje; Milu Muyanga; Nicole M. Mason |
| Abstract: | Although measurement error in agricultural field area and productivity data for developing countries is widely acknowledged, there is still a shortage of evidence on what the errors imply for researchers, and even less evidence on what the implications may be for farmers. In this study we investigate field size measurement errors on Zambian maize fields to examine the nature of these errors and the implications they have for: 1) our ability to understand productivity, 2) actual productivity, and 3) our broader understanding of total land use. Using a nationally representative dataset on Zambian smallholder maize plots, we compare self-reported (SR) and global positioning system (GPS) measures of land area on a farm’s largest maize plot to assess how measurement error might affect productivity estimates and farmer input use. Consistent with other studies, we find strong evidence that the land area of relatively smaller fields is overstated, and relatively larger fields is understated. However, correcting for this measurement error using GPS measurements appears to strengthen the evidence of an inverse relationship between field size and productivity. Additionally, we find strong evidence to suggest farmers themselves believe the area figures they report to enumerators and that their input use is more closely aligned with the reported field sizes than actual field sizes. Based on these results and insights from semi-structured interviews with farmers and extension agents, we argue that measurement error may affect real productivity in addition to productivity estimates. Strengthening extension efforts to improve farmer understanding of land area measurements may be an important and affordable way to improve productivity. Moreover, improving the accuracy of datacollection for area seems feasible and will improve researchers’ understanding of productivity. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303519&r=all |
| By: | Amare, Mulubrhan; Arndt, Channing; Mahrt, Kristi; Mavrotas, George |
| Abstract: | There is a growing interest in the research literature in exploring how child nutrition is affected by sociocultural practices, such as polygyny. However, evaluation of the effect of polygyny on child nutrition has been hindered by the complexity of the relationship. This paper investigates the effect of polygyny on anthropometric outcomes while recognizing that unobservable household characteristics may simultaneously influence both the decision to form a polygynous union and the ability of the household to adequately nourish children. Polygyny can affect children’s nutrition through increased family size, early marriage, and the level of household investment in child health. In this paper, we apply an instrumental variable approach based on the occurrence of same sex siblings in a woman’s first two births to generate exogenous variation in polygyny. Using data from the 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys, we find a detrimental effect of polygyny on child undernutrition, with a greater effect in poorer households and those resident in more urban locations. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:nsspwp:61&r=all |
| By: | Isaksson, Ann-Sofie (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical evidence suggests that Chinese development finance may be particularly prone to elite capture and patronage spending. If aid ends up in the pockets of political elites and their ethno-regional networks, this may exacerbate ethnic grievances and contribute to ethnic mobilization. The present paper examines whether Chinese development projects make local ethnic identities more salient in African partner countries. A new geo-referenced dataset on the subnational allocation of Chinese development finance projects to Africa is geographically matched with survey data for 50,520 respondents from 11 African countries. The identification strategy consists in comparing sites where a Chinese project was under implementation at the time of the interview to sites where a Chinese project will appear subsequently. The empirical results indeed suggest that living near an ongoing Chinese project makes ethnic identities more salient. There is no indication of an equivalent pattern when considering development projects of other donors. |
| Keywords: | China; Aid; Ethnic identities; Africa |
| JEL: | F35 O19 O55 |
| Date: | 2020–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1336&r=all |
| By: | Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos (World Bank); Cadena, Kiyomi (World Bank); Herrera, Laura Moreno (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | A rigorous understanding of the developmental effect of fiscal transfers to subnational governments remains an important policy research issue globally. This paper exploits a novel dataset of 20 years of municipal poverty maps and local public finances to study the effects on local welfare of a large fiscal transfer fund earmarked for social investment in more than 2,000 Mexican municipalities. Results show a positive but modest effect on the average household income, and positive effects on seven nonmonetary welfare measures. In contrast, these funds have no significant impact on extreme and moderate monetary poverty. These results provide important lessons for policy on the effects of earmarked funds to reduce territorial poverty and inequality in terms of incentives to design formulas to distribute earmarked fiscal resources to subnational governments. |
| Keywords: | fiscal federalism, earmarked transfers, decentralization, poverty, Mexico |
| JEL: | C26 D30 H72 H77 I3 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13148&r=all |
| By: | Leopoldo TORNAROLLI |
| Abstract: | While Latin America has historically been considered a region of very high inequality, the performance of most Latin American countries in terms of reduction of income inequality has been remarkable good in the first decade of this century. Given that those improvements took place in a context of rising inequality in most of the world, the evolution of income inequality in the region has caught the attention of researchers and policy makers around the world.Taking advantage of a large database of comparable microdata from household surveys, this article updates the evidence on the trends of income inequality in all Latin American countries for the period 1992-2015. It also provides an analysis of how the distinctive evolution of income inequality in this century in Latin America has changed the position of the different countries of the region in both, the global distribution of income in the world and the global distribution of income in Latin America. Finally, the paper decomposes the evolution of income inequality in several countries of the region, discussing the role played by several factors on that evolution. |
| Keywords: | Amérique latine |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2018–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en8832&r=all |