nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2019‒09‒23
twelve papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. Experimental Long-Term Effects of Early-Childhood and School-Age Exposure to a Conditional Cash Transfer Program By Molina Millán, Teresa; Macours, Karen; Maluccio, John; Tejerina, Luis
  2. The Effect of Antimalarial Campaigns on Child Mortality and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa By Joshua Wilde; Bénédicte Apouey; Joseph Coleman; Gabriel Picone
  3. Water, Sanitation and Agriculture Linkages with Health and Nutrition Improvement By Gerber, Nicolas; von Braun, Joachim; Usman, Muhammed Abdella; Hasan, Mohammad Monirul; Okyere, Charles Yaw; Vangani, Ruchi; Wiesmann, Doris
  4. Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration By Michal Burzynski; Christoph Deuster; Frederic Docquier; Jaime de Melo
  5. Reducing PTSD symptoms through a gender norms and economic empowerment intervention to reduce intimate partner violence: a randomized controlled pilot study in Côte D'Ivoire By Annan, J.; Falb, K.; Kpebo, D.; Hossain, M.; Gupta, J.
  6. Barriers to Mobility or Sorting? Sources and Aggregate Implications of Income Gaps across Sectors and Locations in Indonesia By José Pulido; Tomasz Swiecki
  7. Early Childhood Education and Children Development : Evidence from Ghana By Bago, Jean-Louis; Ouédraogo, Moussa; Akakpo, Koffi; Lompo, Miaba Louise; Souratié, Wamadini M.; Ouédraogo, Ernest
  8. Prenatal care utilization and infant health in Botswana By David Mmopelwa
  9. On Her Own Account: How Strengthening Women’s Financial Control Impacts Labor Supply and Gender Norms By Erica Field; Rohini Pande; Natalia Rigol; Simone Schaner; Charity Troyer Moore
  10. Winning a district election in a clientelistic society: Evidence from decentralized Indonesia By Farah, Alfa
  11. Household size, birth order and child health in Botswana By David Mmopelwa
  12. Cost-Effective Public Daycare in a Low-Income Economy Benefits Children and Mothers By Hojman, Andrés; López Bóo, Florencia

  1. By: Molina Millán, Teresa (Universidade Nova de Lisboa); Macours, Karen (Paris School of Economics); Maluccio, John (Middlebury College); Tejerina, Luis (IDB Invest)
    Abstract: Numerous evaluations of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs show positive short-term impacts, but there is only limited evidence on whether these benefits translate into sustained longer-term gains. This paper uses the municipal-level randomized assignment of a CCT program implemented for five years in Honduras to estimate long-term effects 13 years after the program began. We estimate intent-to-treat effects using individual-level data from the population census, which allows assignment of individuals to their municipality of birth, thereby circumventing migration selection concerns. For the non-indigenous, we find positive and robust impacts on educational outcomes for cohorts of a very wide age range. These include increases of more than 50 percent for secondary school completion rates and the probability of reaching university studies for those exposed at school-going ages. They also include substantive gains for grades attained and current enrollment for others exposed during early childhood, raising the possibility of further gains going forward. Educational gains are, however, more limited for the indigenous. Finally, exposure to the CCT increased the probability of international migration for young men, from 3 to 7 percentage points, also stronger for the non-indigenous. Both early childhood exposure to the nutrition and health components of the CCT as well as exposure during school-going ages to the educational components led to sustained increases in human capital.
    Keywords: conditional cash transfers (CCTs), early childhood, education, migration
    JEL: I25 I28 I38 O15
    Date: 2019–09
  2. By: Joshua Wilde (MPIDR - Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft); Bénédicte Apouey (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Joseph Coleman (USF - University of South Florida); Gabriel Picone (USF - University of South Florida)
    Abstract: We examine the extent to which recent declines in child mortality and fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa can be attributed to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Exploiting the rapid increase in ITNs since the mid-2000s, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy to identify the causal effect of ITNs on mortality and fertility. We show that the ITN distribution campaigns reduced all-cause child mortality, but surprisingly increased total fertility rates in the short run in spite of reduced desire for children and increased contraceptive use. We explain this paradox in two ways. First, we show evidence for an unexpected increase in fecundity and sexual activity due to the better health environment after the ITN distribution. Second, we show evidence that the effect on fertility is positive only temporarily – lasting only 1-3 years after the beginning of the ITN distribution programs – and then becomes negative. Taken together, these results suggest the ITN distribution campaigns may have caused fertility to increase unexpectedly and temporarily, or that these increases may just be a tempo effect – changes in fertility timing which do not lead to increased completed fertility.
    Keywords: Malaria,Bed nets,Child mortality,Fertility,Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2019–09
  3. By: Gerber, Nicolas; von Braun, Joachim; Usman, Muhammed Abdella; Hasan, Mohammad Monirul; Okyere, Charles Yaw; Vangani, Ruchi; Wiesmann, Doris
    Abstract: In 2010, the United Nations General Assembly recognized access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure a matter of human right. This right is reflected in Sustainable Development Goal 6, whose targets 1 and 2 point to universal access to safe and affordable drinking water and adequate sanitation by 2030, in a gender equitable way. Progress towards these targets has been recorded, building on successes achieved under the previous framework of the Millennium Development Goals (Target 7.c). These positive developments could be expected to spill over to other dimensions of human development, health and nutrition in particular. Yet, progress in either of these dimensions, particularly among young children (SDG target 2.2 on ending all forms of malnutrition), is not commensurate. In this paper, we advocate for a systemic approach to water management for improved health and nutrition. We focus on rural and peri-urban areas of the developing world, where multi-purpose water systems are particularly relevant. As competition for safe water resources intensifies, it is important to understand the trade-offs between specific uses and their implications for health and nutrition, based on the gender and age of individuals. We conduct statistical and econometric analyses of secondary, nationally representative data for four countries: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana and India. These data sets have been routinely used to report on progress toward SDG 6 (availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all) and SDG 2 (ending hunger and achieving food security and improved nutrition for all). Our cross-sectional analysis reflects the positive association between access to improved sanitation infrastructure and long-term child nutrition outcomes (height-for-age and weight-for-age). On the other hand, the analysis fails to demonstrate a positive association between access to improved drinking water sources and the same child nutrition indicators. In the next step, we investigate the associations between multi-use water systems, especially around agricultural activities, and health and nutrition. To that end, we compile data from four household surveys we collected in the same countries, including indicators on the type of irrigation system. The regression analysis of this pooled dataset is complemented by an in-depth, context-specific analysis of behavior around drinking water use and irrigation practices. The analyses reveal a low correlation between water quality at the point of source and water quality at the point of use, drawing attention to behavioral issues around water use. Similarly, the prevalence of open defecation seems much more important to health and nutrition than the existence of sanitation infrastructure. Finally, irrigation is not per se a detrimental factor for drinking water quality or nutrition, but the integration of waste water irrigation in particular needs to be carefully managed in order to avoid adverse nutrition and health effects.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Health Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2019–09–18
  4. By: Michal Burzynski (LISER, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (Luxembourg)); Christoph Deuster (IRES, UCLouvain (Belgium), and Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal)); Frederic Docquier (LISER (Luxembourg), FNRS and IRES, UCLouvain (Belgium), and FERDI (France)); Jaime de Melo (Universite de Geneve (Switzerland), CEPR (United Kingdom) and FERDI (France))
    Abstract: This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on local, interregional, and international migration of workers. For nearly all of the world's countries, our micro-founded model jointly endogenizes the effects of changing temperature and sea level on income distribution and individual decisions about fertility, education, and mobility. Climate change intensifies poverty and income inequality creating favorable conditions for urbanization and migration from low- to highlatitude countries. Encompassing slow- and fast-onset mechanisms, our projections suggest that climate change will induce the voluntary and forced displacement of 100 to 160 million workers (200 to 300 million climate migrants of all ages) over the course of the 21st century. However, under current migration laws and policies, forcibly displaced people predominantly relocate within their country and merely 20 % of climate migrants opt for long-haul migration to OECD countries. If climate change induces generalized and persistent conflicts over resources in regions at risk, we project significantly larger cross-border flows in the future.
    Keywords: Climate change, Migration, Inequality, Urbanization, Conflicts
    JEL: E24 F22 J24 J61 Q54
    Date: 2019–09–14
  5. By: Annan, J.; Falb, K.; Kpebo, D.; Hossain, M.; Gupta, J.
    Abstract: Background. Women living in war-affected contexts face high levels of gender-based violence, including intimate partner violence (Stark & Ager, 2011). Despite well-documented negative consequences, including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (Garcia-Moreno et al. 2006; Steel et al. 2009), evidence remains thin regarding intervention effectiveness to mitigate consequences in these settings. Methods. This study used a two-armed parallel pilot randomized controlled trial to compare the impact of a group savings only (control) to gender dialogue groups added to group savings (treatment) on women's symptoms of PTSD in northwestern Côte d'Ivoire. Eligible Ivorian women (18+ years, no prior experience with group savings) were invited to participate and 1198 were randomized into treatment groups. Results. In the ITT analyses, women in the treatment arm had significantly fewer PTSD symptoms relative to the control arm (β: −0.12; 95% CI: −0.20 to −0.03; p = 0.005). Partnered women in the treatment arm who had not experienced intimate partner violence (IPV) at baseline had significantly fewer PTSD symptoms than the control arm (β = −0.12; 95% CI: −0.21 to −0.03; p = 0.008), while those who had experienced IPV did not show significant differences between treatment and control arms (β = −0.09; 95% CI: −0.29 to 0.11; p = 0.40). Conclusions. Adding a couples gender discussion group to a women's savings group significantly reduced women's PTSD symptoms overall. Different patterns emerge for women who experienced IPV at baseline v. those who did not. More research is needed on interventions to improve mental health symptoms for women with and without IPV experiences in settings affected by conflict.
    Keywords: Armed conflict; gender-based violence (GBV); interventions; intimate partner violence (IPV); mental health; PTSD
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2017–11–17
  6. By: José Pulido (Banco de la Republica - Central Bank of); Tomasz Swiecki (UBC)
    Abstract: Existence of large income gaps between agricultural and non-agricultural workers in developing countries is well known, but the exact source of the gaps is debated. The two main hypotheses, barriers to labor mobility and sorting of workers based on unobserved comparative advantage, have distinct predictions for aggregate efficiency but are difficult to distinguish using only cross-sectional data typically available for developing countries. We use panel data from Indonesia Family Life Survey to document that workers who move out of agriculture see an income gain of over 20% while those who move into agriculture see a similar income loss, even if they stay in the same location. We then ask whether even such within-worker sector premia tell us anything about the presence of barriers to sectoral mobility. By themselves, they do not. However, taking into account a richer set of moments of the joint sector-income distribution over time allows us to identify the role of self-selection across sectors and of barriers to sectoral mobility. Our estimates indicate that while self-selection is important, there are also barriers that significantly misallocate workers across sectors. Removing such barriers would lead 35% of workers to reallocate and as a result would increase aggregate output by as much as 21%.
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Bago, Jean-Louis; Ouédraogo, Moussa; Akakpo, Koffi; Lompo, Miaba Louise; Souratié, Wamadini M.; Ouédraogo, Ernest
    Abstract: While early childhood education (ECE) has received rising interest from researchers in recent years, its effect on child development is still unclear in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper investigates the effectiveness of ECE on 3-4 years old children development outcomes in Ghana. We exploit data from the 2011 round of the Ghana Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), to build a multidimensional early child development index that accounts for children’s ability to read, count, recognize number, interact with peers and other people, follow rules and be independent as well as their health outcomes and physical skills. Then, we estimate the effect of ECE on child development using an endogenous treatment effect model to account for children unequal access to ECE. Results indicate that attending to ECE program increases children early development indicator. This finding is robust to several changes in the specifications.
    Keywords: early childhood, education, child development, endogenous treatment, Ghana
    JEL: O1
    Date: 2019–09
  8. By: David Mmopelwa
    Abstract: Despite the freely and publicly provided health care in Botswana, the proportion of low birth weight infants increased from 8% to 13% during 2000-2007 period. The latter rate was among the highest in the WHO African region and upper middle-income countries and may question the effectiveness of care. Using the 2007/08 Botswana Family Health Survey data collected by Statistics Botswana, the paper jointly estimates the adequate prenatal care utilization (input demand) and infant birth weight (outcome) functions through the treatment effect model, which accounts for the binary nature of the endogenous regressor. As birth weight information is not available for all infants, we also estimate a Heckman sample selection model to account for potential bias. Estimating models for rural and urban samples separately, we find that lower levels of mother`s education reduces the likelihood to both adequately utilize prenatal care and report infant birth weight. The likelihood for prenatal care utilization increases with the probability of a care facility being sufficiently close and availability of care facilities. Adequate prenatal care utilization is positively associated with birth weight and failing to account for endogeneity reduces its effect. On average, birth weight increases by 0.67, 0.73 and 0.64 kg in full, urban and rural samples respectively.
    Keywords: Prenatal care, infant health
    Date: 2019
  9. By: Erica Field (Duke University); Rohini Pande (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Natalia Rigol (Harvard University); Simone Schaner (University of Southern California); Charity Troyer Moore (MacMillan Center, Yale University)
    Abstract: Can greater control over earned income incentivize women to work and influence gender norms? In collaboration with Indian government partners, we provided rural women with individual bank accounts and randomly varied whether their wages from a public workfare program were directly deposited into these accounts or into the male household head’s account (the status quo). Women in a random subset of villages were also trained on account use. In the short run, relative to women just offered bank accounts, those who also received direct deposit and training increased their labor supply in the public and private sectors. In the long run, gender norms liberalized: women who received direct deposit and training became more accepting of female work, and their husbands perceived fewer social costs to having a wife who works. These effects were concentrated in households with otherwise lower levels of, and stronger norms against, female work. Women in these households also worked more in the long run and became more empowered. These patterns are consistent with models of household decisionmaking in which increases in bargaining power from greater control over income interact with, and influence, gender norms.
    Date: 2019–09
  10. By: Farah, Alfa
    Abstract: Lower-level officials often engage in clientelistic relations with the upper-level government. The nature of these relations might be determined by institutional factors such as how the lower-level officials come into their position. This paper specifically highlights the different political incentives that elected versus appointed lower-level officials have for becoming political intermediaries for the upper-level government, and it investigates empirically how these differing incentives bring electoral consequences. Upon exploiting a natural experiment in Indonesia, the study found that the elected village headmen have stronger incentives to support the incumbent mayor than the appointed village headmen do. The results suggest that while civil service reforms might weaken the bureaucratic clientelism, the pre-existing patronclient relations that are deeply embedded in the society are immersed in local political competitions; thus, this practice challenges political consolidation in the young democracy.
    Keywords: clientelism,selection mechanism,local elections
    JEL: D72 H77 H83 O17 O18
    Date: 2019
  11. By: David Mmopelwa
    Abstract: One of the theoretical predictions relating to the family size and birth order effect on child capital is resource dilution hypothesis, according to which large sizes and high child birth order are likely to have negative effects. However, there are arguments that the assumption of a fixed and narrow flow of resources from parents underpinning the theory may not always hold. In Botswana, children aged 6-60 months are eligible for monthly food ration provided through the health care facilities. Notwithstanding this, child health as measured by the three anthropometric indicators: stunting (low height for age), being underweight (low weight for age), and wasting (low weight for height) deteriorated overtime, while on average household size declined. This paper investigates the child birth order and alternative family structure (i.e household) size effect on health. Using the 2009/10 Botswana Core Welfare Indicator Survey (BCWIS) data we estimate the random effects model to explore the within and between household effect. We find that children of high birth order are likely to fare worse than their lower birth order counterparts in nutrition. Household size is negatively associated with child health, and there are higher variances across than within households. Higher variances are unexplained by the observed characteristics. The paper calls for further work on the issue of intrahousehold allocation, to aid evaluation of the program in line with the country`s national population policy objective of quality life.
    Keywords: Child health, household size, birth order
    Date: 2019
  12. By: Hojman, Andrés (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile); López Bóo, Florencia (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the impacts of a public program that introduced access to part-time childcare centers for children younger than four years of age in poor urban areas in Nicaragua. We explore the effects of this program on several measures of children's and parental outcomes. Our identification strategy exploits the original randomization and the distance to the centers, using Instrumental Variables (IV) and Marginal Treatment Effects (MTE) methods to tackle imperfect compliance with the original treatment assignments. We present a theoretical model to rationalize our IV assumptions. We find a positive impact of 0.35 standard deviations on the personal-social domain of a widely used development test, and an impact of 14 percentage points on mothers' work participation. Our results are robust to different econometric specifications. We also find suggestive evidence that quality greatly matters for the impacts at the child level, but not at the mother level.
    Keywords: RCT, early childhood development, daycare, Latin America, maternal labor force participation, quality
    JEL: C21 I28 I38
    Date: 2019–08

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