nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2019‒05‒27
twelve papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. Two Africas? Why Africa’s ‘growth miracle’ has barely reduced poverty By Rumman Khan; Oliver Morrissey; Paul Mosley
  2. To educate a woman and to educate a man: Gender-specific sexual behaviour and HIV responses to an education reform in Botswana By Lindskog, Annika; Durevall, Dick
  3. The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda By Kraehnert, Kati; Brück, Tilman; Di Maio, Michele; Nistico, Roberto
  4. Cash transfers, labor supply and gender inequality: Evidence from South Africa By Giorgio d'Agostino; Margherita Scarlato
  5. Women's Empowerment, Gendered Institutions and Economic Opportunity: An Investigative Study for Pakistan By Parlow, Anton
  6. Present Bias and Underinvestment in Education? Long-run Effects of Childhood Exposure to Booms in Colombia By Bladimir Carrillo
  7. Aid and exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa: No more Dutch Disease? By Oliver Morrissey; Lionel Roger; Lars Spreng
  8. Violence and Human Capital Investments By Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner; Lívia Menezes
  9. Gender, Crime and Punishment: Evidence from Women Police Stations in India By Sofia Amaral; Sonia Bhalotra; Nishith Prakash
  10. Boosting quality education with inclusive human development: empirical evidence from sub-Saharan Africa By Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas
  11. Do Farmers Perceive the Trends of Local Climate Variability Accurately? An Analysis of Farmers’ Perceptions and Meteorological Data in Myanmar By Hein, Yarzar; Vijitsrikamol, Kampanat; Attavanich, Witsanu; Janekarnkij, Penporn
  12. Education as a way to reducing inequality: Evidence from India By Roy, Pronoy; Husain, Zakir

  1. By: Rumman Khan; Oliver Morrissey; Paul Mosley
    Abstract: Growth improved substantially in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) since 1990, but poverty in SSA as a whole has fallen by about a third, compared to by half or more in other developing regions. While some countries have had little or no success in reducing poverty, many have had significant achievements. The paper argues that inter-country differences, traceable to colonial experience, are crucial to understanding this varied SSA performance. This is based on a distinction between relatively labour-intensive ‘smallholder’ colonial economies and capital-intensive ‘extractive economies’ exporting minerals and plantation crops. Because of the more equitable income distribution and African political inclusion generated in smallholder economies, at independence they were in a better position than extractive economies to translate growth into poverty reduction. Since the 1990s (when poverty data are available) the distinction in terms of poverty reduction can be observed. The empirical analysis estimates the growth elasticity of poverty using various specifications, some including inequality. There are two key robust findings: i) smallholder economies significantly outperform extractive economies in poverty reduction; and ii) growth rates do not differ on average between the two groups, but the growth elasticity of poverty is higher in smallholder economies.
    Keywords: Poverty, sub-Saharan Africa, colonial legacy, inclusive growth
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Lindskog, Annika (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Durevall, Dick (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: Education has been suggested as a ‘vaccine’ against HIV infection, but there is not much causal evidence behind this claim. Moreover, the few studies that exist on the impact of education on HIV infection and related outcomes have focused mostly on women, despite the fact that there are reasons to expect the responses of women and men to differ. This study analyses mechanisms that link education to HIV with a focus on gender differences, using data from four nationally representative surveys in Botswana. To estimate the casual effect, an exogenous one-year increase of junior secondary school is used, which in previous studies has been found to reduce HIV infection rates and increase incomes. The key finding is that women and men responded differently to the reform. It led to delayed sexual debut by up to a year among women and an increase in risky sex among men, measured by number of concurrent sexual partnerships and the likelihood of paying for sex. The increase in risky sex among men is likely to be due to the reform’s positive impact on income. The school reform reduced the likelihood of HIV infection among women, but had no statistically significant impact on this variable among men.
    Keywords: Education; HIV; Sexual behaviour; Gender
    JEL: I12 I15 I25
    Date: 2019–05
  3. By: Kraehnert, Kati (DIW Berlin); Brück, Tilman (ISDC - International Security and Development Center); Di Maio, Michele (University of Naples Parthenope); Nistico, Roberto (University of Naples Federico II)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the fertility effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. We study the effects of violence on both the hazard of having a child in the early post-genocide period and on the total number of post-genocide births up to 15 years following the conflict. We use individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate survival and count data models. The paper contributes to the literature on the demographic effects of violent conflict by testing two channels through which conflict influences fertility. First, the type of violence exposure as measured by the death of a woman's child or sibling. Second, the conflict-induced change in local demographic conditions as captured by the change in the district-level sex ratio. Results indicate that the genocide had heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, her age cohort, parity, and the time horizon (5, 10 and 15 years after the genocide). There is strong evidence of a replacement effect. Having experienced the death of a child during the genocide increases both the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide and the total number of post-genocide births. Experiencing sibling death during the genocide significantly lowers post-genocide fertility in both the short run and the long run. Finally, a reduction in the local sex ratio negatively impacts the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide, particularly for older women.
    Keywords: child death, fertility, genocide, Rwanda, sex ratio, sibling death
    JEL: J13 N47 O12
    Date: 2019–05
  4. By: Giorgio d'Agostino; Margherita Scarlato
    Abstract: This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of the Child Support Grant (CSG)implemented in South Africa on the labor supply of the parents of beneficiary children. Ouraim is to assess, by evaluating potential heterogeneity of the effects by gender, whether and towhat extent the program improved or lessened gender inequality in the labor market. We usedata from a national panel survey, the National Income Dynamics Study, and apply a fuzzyregression discontinuity design that exploits an expansion in eligibility due to a discontinuouschange in the age eligibility criterion. The results show that the CSG had a negative effecton the probability of parents of beneficiary children being employed and mixed effects onthe participation in the labor force, with substantial heterogeneity by gender and by otherindividual and household characteristics. Overall, the evaluation suggests that the programprovided support to the members of vulnerable household in coping with the constraints ofthe South African labor market, but it did not serve to reshape existing gender inequalities
    Date: 2019–05
  5. By: Parlow, Anton
    Abstract: Increasing female landownership or labor force participation are policies designed to empower women in developing countries. Yet, societies are diverse and I find that across language and ethnic groups not all Pakistani women benefit from these increased economic opportunities in their decision making. I even find negative impacts of labor force participation on empowerment for some groups. This can be explained by different gender expectations along these gendered institutions.
    Keywords: Women's Empowerment, Ethnicity, Identity
    JEL: J0 J01 O12
    Date: 2018–04–23
  6. By: Bladimir Carrillo (Universidade Federal de Viçosa)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run impacts of income shocks by exploiting variation in coffee cultivation patterns within Colombia and world coffee prices during cohorts' school-going years in a differences-in-differences framework. The results indicate that cohorts who faced higher returns to coffee-related work during school-going years completed fewer years of schooling and have lower income in adulthood. These findings suggest that leaving school during temporary booms results in a significant loss of long-term income. This is consistent with the possibility that students may ignore or heavily discount the future consequences of dropout decisions when faced with immediate income gains.
    Keywords: Information Avoidance, Energy Efficiency, Moral Wiggle Roo
    JEL: J24 O12 O13
    Date: 2019–05
  7. By: Oliver Morrissey; Lionel Roger; Lars Spreng
    Abstract: Given the significant inflows of foreign aid to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the possibility of Dutch Disease has been a concern. Most macroeconomic models predict that aid inflows, especially if large and/or unanticipated (shocks), will lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and undermine the competitiveness of the economy. Empirical evidence is inconclusive, but a common presumption is that aid has been associated with Dutch Disease effects in SSA. Previous empirical studies rely on annual data and few include data since themid-2000s. This paper focuses on themore recent period employing monthly time series data for ten countries over 2001 to 2017 to estimate a structural VAR. For the majority of countries aid has no or a minimal effect on the real exchange rate; there is evidence of a significant real appreciation in only two countries. Additional analysis shows that commodity export prices are a more important determinant of the real exchange rate, with an effect on average twice that of aid. The paper conjectures that the absence of a Dutch Disease effect since the 2000s is due to a declining level of aid inflows and improved macroeconomic management.
    Keywords: Foreign Aid, Exchange Rates, Dutch Disease, sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2019
  8. By: Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner; Lívia Menezes
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effect of exposure to homicides on the educational performance and human capital investments of students in Brazil. We combine extremely granular information on the location and timing of homicides with a number of very large administrative educational datasets, to estimate the effect of exposure to homicides around schools, students' residence, and on their way to school on these outcomes. We show that violence has a detrimental effect on school attendance, on standardised test scores in math and Portuguese language and increases dropout rates of students substantially. The effects are particularly pronounced for boys, indicating important heterogeneous effects of violence. We use exceptionally rich information from student- and parent-background questionnaires to investigate the effect of violence on the aspirations and attitudes towards education. In line with the effects on dropout and the longer-term human capital accumulation of students, we find that boys systematically report lower educational aspiration towards education. Making use of the very rich information from the homicides and education data, we explore a number of underlying transmission channels, including mechanisms related to school supply, bereavement and incentives for human capital investments.
    Keywords: Homocides, human capital investments, education, Brazil
    JEL: I25 K42 O12
    Date: 2019–04
  9. By: Sofia Amaral (ifo Institute and CESifo); Sonia Bhalotra (ISER - University of Essex); Nishith Prakash (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: We study the impact of an innovative policy intervention in India that led to a rapid expansion in ‘all women police stations’ across cities in India on reported crime against women and deterrence. Using an identification strategy that exploits the staggered implementation of women police stations across cities and nationally representative data on various measures of crime and deterrence, we find that the opening of police stations increased reported crime against women by 22 percent. This is due to increases in reports of female kidnappings and domestic violence. In contrast, reports of genderspecific mortality, self-reported intimate-partner violence and other non-gender specific crimes remain unchanged. We also show that victims move away from reporting crimes in general stations and that self-reported use of support services increased in affected areas. The implementation of women police stations also led to marginal improvements in measures of police deterrence such as arrest rates.
    Keywords: Women police station, Crime against women, Women in policing, India, Pro-active behaviour
    Date: 2019–04
  10. By: Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas
    Abstract: This study examines the importance of inclusive human development in promoting education quality in a panel of forty-nine Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2000-2012. The empirical evidence is based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed Effects (FE) and Quantile Regression (QR) estimations. It is apparent from the OLS and FE findings that inclusive human development has a negative effect on the outcome variable. This negative effect implies that inclusive human development improves education quality. This result should be understood in the light of the fact that the adopted education variable is a negative economic signal given that it is computed as the ratio of pupils to teachers. Therefore, a higher ratio reflects diminishing education quality. From QR, with the exception of the highest quantile, the tendency of inclusive human development in reducing poor quality education is consistent throughout the conditional distribution of poor education quality. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Education; inclusive human development; Africa
    JEL: G20 I10 I32 O40 O55
    Date: 2019–01
  11. By: Hein, Yarzar; Vijitsrikamol, Kampanat; Attavanich, Witsanu; Janekarnkij, Penporn
    Abstract: With the existing state of issues related to global climate change, the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of climate is critically important if they plan to implement appropriate adaptation measures in their farming. This article evaluated if farmers perceive the trends of local climate variability accurately, and was verified by the historical meteorological data analysis. Ordered probit perception models were applied in this study to determine the factors influencing the accuracy of farmer perception. It was observed that farmers’ perceptions of the rainfall amount during the early, mid, and late monsoon periods were highly accurate, and they also accurately perceived summer temperature change, but less accuracy of perception was observed of the temperate changes of the winter and monsoon seasons. Access to weekly weather information, participation in agricultural trainings, farming experience, and education level of the farmer were the major factors determining the accuracy of perception in this study. Based on the empirical results, this study suggested policy implications for (a) the locally specified weather information distribution, and (b) integration of weather information into agricultural training programs, which are available to the farming community to enhance the government implantation of the Myanmar Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy and Myanmar Climate Change Master Plan 2018–2030.
    Keywords: accuracy of perception; climate trend; climate variability; Myanmar; ordered probit
    JEL: Q12 Q54
    Date: 2019–03
  12. By: Roy, Pronoy; Husain, Zakir
    Abstract: Growing global inequality, particularly in developing countries, has become a major challenge before policy makers. Various policy measures have been suggested: redistributive taxation and transfers, fixing minimum wage, ensuring universal basic income, transferring assets, land reforms, increasing employment opportunities through government sponsored employment schemes and welfare-to-work schemes, and other such policies. Education has also been suggested as an important means to reduce inequality, particularly in developing societies. The impact of education on growth and human development has been well documented; it is also recognized to be a cornerstone for social justice and, hence, an important potential means for reducing inequality. Empirical evidence on the relationship between improvement in educational attainments and earning based inequality, however, shows that the relationship between the two is not simple. If returns to education are convex, then improvement in educational attainments may lead to an increase in earning-based inequality (Lam et al., 2015). In this study, we have used nationally representative unit level data from the Employment and Unemployment survey (68th round, undertaken in 2011-2012 by National Sample Survey Office), to examine the impact of expansion of education on inequality in Indian society. Analysis reveals that education has reduced inequality in the 1970s, and from the 1990s onwards.
    Keywords: Earnings inequality; Schooling inequality; Convex returns to education; India.
    JEL: I24 I25 O1 O15
    Date: 2019–05–01

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