nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2019‒05‒20
eighteen papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. Intergenerational mobility, human capital accumulation, and growth in India By van der Weide Roy; Vigh Melinda
  2. IFAD IMPACT ASSESSMENT - Plan VIDA-PEEP to eradicate extreme poverty – Phase I: Bolivia By Adriana, Paolantonio; Romina, Cavatassi; Kristen, McCollum
  3. Does private aid follow the flag? An empirical analysis of humanitarian assistance By Fuchs, Andreas; Öhler, Hannes
  4. Is India’s Employment Guarantee Program Successfully Challenging Her Historical Inequalities? By Kartik Misra
  5. Impact of Development aid on infant mortality : Micro-level evidence from Cote d’Ivoire By Didier Wayoro; Leonce Ndikumana
  6. Economic Transition, Dualism, and Informality in India By Surbhi Kesar
  7. Market constraints, misallocation, and productivity in Viet Nam agriculture By Brandt Loren; Syerst Stephen; Restuccia Diego; Ayerst Stephen
  8. IFAD IMPACT ASSESSMENT - Coastal climate resilient infrastructure project (CCRIP): Bangladesh By Aslihan, Arslan; Daniel, Higgins; Saiful, Islam
  9. How does joint evolution of social trust and land administration shape economic outcomes?: Evidence from Viet Nam By Dang Duc; Dang Kim; Vu Thi
  10. Crop prices and migration in Viet Nam By Narciso Gaia
  11. Political conflict and domestic violence in Nigeria By Neha Hui
  12. IFAD IMPACT ASSESSMENT - Participatory small irrigation development programme I (PASIDP I): results from a high frequency data collection - Ethiopia By Alessandra, Garbero; Bezawit, Beyene Chichaibelu
  13. Measuring the effect of competitive teacher recruitment on student achievement: Evidence from Ecuador By Araujo P., Maria Daniela
  14. Length of maternal schooling and child’s risk of malaria infection in Uganda: evidence from a natural experiment By Masuda, Kazuya
  15. Do forest-management plans and FSC certification reduce deforestation in the Congo basin? By Isabelle Tritsch; Gwenolé Le Velly; Benoit Mertens; Patrick Meyfroidt; Christophe Sannier; Jean-Sylvestre Makak; Kenneth Houngbedji
  16. Electricity supply reliability and households decision to connect to the grid By Arnaud Millien
  17. Illusion of gender parity in education: Intrahousehold resource allocation in Bangladesh By Xu, Sijia; Shonchoy, Abu S.; Fujii, Tomoki
  18. Present Bias and Underinvestment in Education? Long-run Effects of Childhood Exposure to Booms in Colombia By Carrillo, Bladimir

  1. By: van der Weide Roy; Vigh Melinda
    Abstract: Productivity and socio-economic progress are inter-connected. Economic growth funds policies that promote socio-economic progress, while the latter serves as a growth engine. A society with high mobility is one where individual achievements are influenced less by the individual’s parents and more by her potential.In an application to 54 state-regions in India (1983-2011), we identify the causal effect of intergenerational mobility on household expenditure’s future growth. We find that intergenerational mobility has a positive effect on growth, particularly among the poor.Furthermore, mobility is found to be positive for human capital accumulation except for individuals with highly educated parents for whom it matters less whether the playing field is level or not.
    Keywords: Growth,Inequality,Intergenerational Mobility,Poverty and inequality
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Adriana, Paolantonio; Romina, Cavatassi; Kristen, McCollum
    Abstract: Over half of the rural population in Bolivia today live below the national poverty line. As agriculture represents the main source of livelihood for more than 75 per cent of this rural population, supporting the livelihoods of rural farming households is key to tackling extreme poverty in the country. In August 2011, implementation began on the project Plan VIDA-PEEP (PPV), an initiative financed jointly between IFAD and the Bolivian Government as part of the country's National Development Plan. It aimed to improve the livelihoods of households residing in vulnerable municipalities in the departments of Potosi and Cochabamba through capacity building, financing of rural development projects, and supporting citizenship and social inclusion. The project lasted five years in total and was completed in December, 2016. Plan VIDA was implemented in 8 municipalities in the southern part of Cochabamba department, and in 14 municipalities in the northern area of the Potosí department. The current impact assessment examines the effectiveness of one component of the Plan VIDA project. Under this component, the project provided financial resources to communities for the implementation of rural development projects and to municipalities for the realization of production infrastructure projects. In particular, the evaluation focuses on a specific category of projects – Community Based Productive Investments (Proyectos Inter Comunales - PICs) – which account for more than 90 per cent of total beneficiary households reached by Plan VIDA The interventions financed are chosen among a set of community-developed proposals and are therefore of a participatory and collective nature. Nonetheless, about 80 per cent of interventions provided involved distribution of new locally adapted (criollo) or improved livestock breeds to individual households. Thus, the project offers a unique research opportunity to assess both its community-based development approach and the effectiveness of its livestock inputs. This impact assessment investigates whether the Plan VIDA project contributes to well-being of beneficiaries measured through key outcome indicators of economic mobility, resilience and nutrition to respond to IFAD's strategic objectives and goals and to Bolivia's National Development Plan. To answer these questions, this ex-post evaluation applies a mixed-methods approach that combines non-experimental statistical methods and qualitative analysis to compare a sample of project beneficiaries to non-participants.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Fuchs, Andreas; Öhler, Hannes
    Abstract: Little is known about foreign aid provided by private donors. This paper contributes to closing this research gap by comparing the allocation of private humanitarian aid to that of official humanitarian aid awarded to 140 recipient countries over the 2000-2016 period. We construct a new database that offers information on the country in which the headquarters of private donors are located to test whether private donors follow the aid allocation pattern of their home country. Our empirical results confirm that private aid "follows the flag." This finding is robust against the inclusion of various fixed effects, estimating instrumental variables models, and disaggregating private aid into corporate aid and NGO aid. Donor country-specific estimations reveal that private aid from China, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States "follow the flag".
    Keywords: foreign aid,humanitarian assistance,disaster relief,aid allocation,private donors,non-governmental organizations,corporations,private foundations
    JEL: H84 F35 F59
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Kartik Misra (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)
    Abstract: By providing 100 days of guaranteed employment to every rural household, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) can challenge the hegemony of the landed elite as major employers in the Indian countryside and raise market wages which have long been depressed. This paper shows that the impact of NREGA is conditioned and complicated by historical inequalities in agricultural landownership which have persisted since the colonial period. I find that in the lean season of agriculture, the program is highly successful in raising wages and generating more public employment in districts that were not characterized by historically high levels of socio-economic inequality. In these districts, the increase in public employment crowds-out labor primarily from domestic work, reflected in increased women’s participation in the program. However, high inequality in landownership adversely impacts the bargaining power of workers and the enforcement of their entitlements under NREGA. This is most evident when I examine the impact of NREGA on rural wages. I find that in districts where land is concentrated in the hands of relatively few large landowners, private agricultural wages declined despite NREGA, whereas they remain largely unchanged in districts that have more equitable land distribution. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that NREGA has not become a credible alternative to private employment in regions with high land inequality.
    Keywords: India; NREGA; historical institutions; wage bargaining; monopsonistic labor markets
    JEL: O12 I38 J42 J43 P48
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Didier Wayoro (Department of Economics, Indiana State University Terre Haute); Leonce Ndikumana (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)
    Abstract: The empirical literature has failed to reach consensus on the impact of aid on development outcomes based on aggregate cross-country analysis. This study follows the current trend in the literature on the effectiveness of aid to examine the impact of local-level aid on health outcomes. We combine data on World Bank’s geo-located aid projects with three rounds of Demographic Health Surveys from Cote d’Ivoire and use difference-in-difference estimation techniques to explore the effects of aid on infant mortality. We find that proximity to development aid projects is associated with reduced infant mortality. Our results are robust to mother fixed-effects estimations as well as water and sanitation projects. The evidence suggests that access to prenatal and postnatal health care are possible mechanisms through which aid may affect infant mortality.
    Keywords: Aid, infant mortality, Cote d’Ivoire
    JEL: F35 I15 O55
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Surbhi Kesar (Faculty of Economics, South Asian University, New Delhi, India.)
    Abstract: In much of the literature on economic development, sustained economic growth is expected to be accompanied by several interrelated processes of structure change, which involve a shift in economic activities from ‘traditional’ / agricultural / informal to ‘modern’ / industrial / formal sectors. Such transitions are usually accompanied by a transition in the economic dependence of households towards relatively ‘modern’ and formal segments of the economy, along with a rise in their general economic well-being. In this paper, we examine the Indian economy using the only available household-level pan-India panel data over the high growth period between 2005 and 2011-12, to analyse the patterns and natures of household-level transitions across sectors and identify factors that affected the likelihood and nature of such transitions. We categorize households based on their primary income sources into seven sectors characterised by varying degrees of formality/informality and various production structures and labour processes. We find that while substantial proportion of households have transitioned across these sectors during the period, there has been a continued reproduction of the same economic structure, including a regeneration of dependence on ‘traditional’ informal sector and casual wage employment, which are often expected to dissolve over time with high economic growth. To ascertain the nature of these transitions (‘favorable’ or ‘unfavorable’), we employ a ‘counterfactual’ analysis. Contrary to some recent influential literature, we find that, on an average, the transitions towards informal and ‘traditional’ economic spaces are ‘unfavourable’ in nature in terms of well-being of households. Further, using a multinomial logit regression framework, we find that the likelihood and nature of these transitions are largely dependent on household characteristics like levels of education and social caste, some of which are structurally given and cannot be optimally chosen by households. The results show that despite significant churning in the economy, the structure continues to remain fractured, with substantial ‘unfavourable’ transitions towards economic spaces that are continuously reshuffled and reconstituted.
    Keywords: structural transformation, informality, transition, segmentation, dualism, India
    JEL: O17 J60 O10
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Brandt Loren; Syerst Stephen; Restuccia Diego; Ayerst Stephen
    Abstract: We examine important changes in agriculture in Viet Nam in the context of ongoing structural changes in the economy. We use a household-level panel dataset and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture during the period between 2006 and 2016.Despite rapid growth in agricultural productivity and a reallocation of factor inputs to more productive farmers, we find that misallocation across farmers remains high and increased during the period. Reallocation of factor inputs has not been strong enough to accommodate substantial changes in farm productivity over time.Our analysis also reveals important differences between the north and south regions.
    Keywords: Misallocation,Regional characteristics,Agriculture,Productivity,Agricultural productivity
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Aslihan, Arslan; Daniel, Higgins; Saiful, Islam
    Abstract: The Coastal Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project (CCRIP) is a $150 million rural infrastructure project which was implemented in 12 districts of Bangladesh since 2013, and is due to be completed by the end of 2019. The project is funded by IFAD, the ADB, KfW of Germany, and the Government of Bangladesh. The project aims to improve the connectivity of farms and households in the face of climatic shocks, focusing on one of the most shock-prone areas of one of the most shock-prone countries in the world. The main component of the project is the construction of improved markets and market connecting roads, that are designed to remain useable during the monsoon season. This is expected to improve sales of on-farm produce, along with access to inputs as well as opportunities for off-farm income generation, leading to increased productivity and income. The project also aims to improve women's empowerment by employing Labour Contracting Societies (LCS), consisting mainly of destitute women, to carry out some of the construction work. This impact assessment focuses on the activities funded by IFAD, which includes the strengthening of markets and roads at the community and village levels. Using data from an in-depth household questionnaire covering 3,000 treatment and control households, combined with extensive qualitative interviews, we analyse the project's impact on a range of impact indicators relating to income; crop, fish and livestock production and sales; assets, food security and education; financial inclusion; and women's empowerment. We assess impact on the whole sample, as well as for a range of sub-groups, including by geographic location, location within the market catchment area, and by livelihood activity, integrating findings from the qualitative data to help to explain the mechanisms that shaped the project's impact. Regarding on-farm activities, we find that, despite a lack of impact on productivity, income from selling crops and fish increased significantly (by 104 and 50 per cent, respectively). However, we do not find a similar increase in income from the sale of livestock and livestock products. The lack of impact on productivity was seemingly caused by persisting issues with accessing high-quality inputs during the monsoon season, as well as households having limited capital to purchase these inputs. Despite this, the project increased the amount of produce that was sold, the amount that was sold at a market rather than from home or the farm gate, and increased the likelihood of growing cash crops, leading to the large increase in on-farm income. As well as improving on-farm income, the project also increased income from wage labour, which together produced a positive impact on total income of 11 per cent, along with a four per cent reduction in poverty. This increased prosperity was also reflected in reduced food insecurity and increased ownership of households assets.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries
    Date: 2019
  9. By: Dang Duc; Dang Kim; Vu Thi
    Abstract: This paper examines how the interaction of social trust and institutions, such as land administration, affects household economic decisions in Viet Nam.Using a panel dataset of rural households from 2008 to 2014, we show that negative consequences of the duration of land administration on credit access, agricultural investment, and land use rights have been mitigated in communes with higher level of trust.These results support the view that trust complements formal institutions.Â
    Keywords: Trust,Agricultural industries,Land rights
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Narciso Gaia
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of commodity prices, in particular rice and coffee, on the individual decision of migrating in Viet Nam.As most coffee production is sold by households for exports, we would expect that coffee price shocks would have a direct effect on the probability of migrating. On the other hand, we would anticipate that fluctuations in rice prices have little or no effect on migration decisions, given that rice is mainly produced for household consumption.The results of the analysis confirm our assumptions. We provide evidence that the lower the coffee price, the higher the likelihood of migrating. This evidence seems to suggest that migration acts as a shock-coping strategy.We find that rice prices have no effect on the probability of migrating. We further explore the extent of migrants’ self-selection and show that lower coffee prices increase the migration probability of individuals with lower education.
    Keywords: Migration,Price shocks
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Neha Hui (Department of Economics, University of Reading)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of persistent political conflict on domestic violence in Nigeria and contributes to an emerging literature on the indirect effects of political conflict on the wellbeing of civilians. Using data from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), I find that after controlling for omitted variable bias by using an appropriate instrument (distance from pre-colonial ethnic society border), increased exposure to political conflict leads to a higher incidence of domestic violence. One additional event of political conflict within a 20 Km buffer in the ten-year period preceding the year of interview implies a 9.3 percent increase in domestic violence with respect to the sample mean. The magnitude of the effect of political conflict on domestic violence increases when we consider a smaller time frame (of two years preceding the year of interview), as well as more intense events of political violence(high fatality events, events of battles and events involving violence against civilians) and decreases when we increase the size of the buffer zone. Political conflict also seems to reduce overall bargaining power or agency of women and increase the controlling behaviour of men. Thus, it is argued here that the increased violence is the consequence of reduced agency or autonomy of the victim and increased violent behaviour of the inflictor.
    Keywords: domestic violence, political violence, controlling behaviour, autonomy
    JEL: J12 J15 J16 O12
    Date: 2019–05–02
  12. By: Alessandra, Garbero; Bezawit, Beyene Chichaibelu
    Abstract: This report presents the results of an ex-post impact assessment of the Participatory Small-scale Irrigation Development Programme (PASIDP), a project financed by IFAD and implemented in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2015. This agricultural project aimed at improving food security and increasing income of beneficiaries by providing access to small-scale irrigation infrastructure systems in four regions of Ethiopia. The objective of the impact assessment was to investigate both the sustainability of the impacts and the resilience capacity of beneficiaries in a context characterized by adverse weather conditions. An innovative data collection was put in place to study the impact on areas where a protracted drought was taking place. In particular, using panel data that allowed one to follow household over time, the analysis tested whether the irrigation schemes were able to provide a protective and sustained effect towards reducing vulnerability and enhancing smallholders households resilience capacity to cope with the longer term variability of the climatic shocks.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Araujo P., Maria Daniela
    Abstract: In the last decade, several Latin American governments have implemented new teacher recruitment policies based on evaluations of candidates' competency and knowledge so as to raise the quality of their teachers and schools. Since 2007, the Ecuadorian government has required teacher candidates to pass national standardized tests before they can participate in merit-based selection competitions for tenure at public schools. Has this new recruitment system served as an effective screening device? Has it ultimately helped to raise student learning? To answer these questions, I analyze data from a unique Ecuadorian survey of schools in the academic year 2011-2012. I first estimate the value-added to student achievement using OLS and hierarchical linear regressions to evaluate the effect of Ecuador's new competitive recruitment policy. I then use propensity score matching to simulate a random assignment of students to teachers and estimate causal treatment effects. The evidence suggests that teachers who were granted tenure through the new competitive recruitment policy were no more effective, overall, in raising students' learning in reading or math than their peers at schools. Nonetheless, poorer children who were assigned to these teachers had significantly better scores in reading. Furthermore, test-screened teachers, regardless of their tenure status, seem to have had positive significant effects in reading, particularly for students living in poverty. This finding suggests that Ecuador's teacher recruitment policy had a positive impact on the nation's most vulnerable students.
    Keywords: teacher quality,education policy,education reform,Latin America
    JEL: I20 I21 I28 J45
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Masuda, Kazuya
    Abstract: Background: An estimated 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide every year. Cross sectional studies have reported negative association between maternal education and child malaria risks, but no randomized trial has confirmed a causal relationship between these two factors. I utilized the free primary education reform in Uganda to assess the causal effects of maternal schooling on the child’s risk of malaria infection.Methods: Malaria biomarkers of children aged
    Date: 2019–03
  15. By: Isabelle Tritsch (UMR ECOFOG - Ecologie des forêts de Guyane - UG - Université de Guyane - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UA - Université des Antilles - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); Gwenolé Le Velly (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Benoit Mertens (ATILF - Analyse et Traitement Informatique de la Langue Française - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick Meyfroidt (Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain); Christophe Sannier (SIRS - Systèmes d'Information à Référence Spatiale - Systèmes d'Information à Référence Spatiale); Jean-Sylvestre Makak (Geospatial Company); Kenneth Houngbedji (AFD - Agence française de développement)
    Abstract: To allow for the production of timber while preserving conservation values, forestry regulations in the Congo Basin have made Forest Management Plans (FMPs) mandatory in logging concessions. This paper uses original highresolution maps of forest-cover changes and official records on the activities of logging concessions to analyze the impact of FMPs on deforestation in this region. We apply quasi-experimental and difference-in-difference approaches to evaluate the change in deforestation in concessions that implemented an FMP. We find that between 2000 and 2010, deforestation was 74% lower in concessions with an FMP compared to others. Building on a theory of change, further analyses revealed that this decrease in deforestation takes at least five years to occur, and is highest around communities located in and nearby logging concessions and in areas close to previous deforestation. These findings suggest that FMPs reduce deforestation by allowing concessions to rotate cycles of timber extraction, thereby avoiding the overexploitation of areas that were previously logged, and by the better regulation of access to concessions by closing former logging roads to limit illegal activities such as slash and burn agriculture, hunting and the illegal harvest of timber or fuelwood.
    Keywords: forest management plan,FSC certification,deforestation,quasi-experimental matching,causal mechanisms,Congo Basin
    Date: 2019
  16. By: Arnaud Millien (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: The 7th Sustainable Development Goal aims to "ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all". Because the cost to increase electrical capacity in Africa alone has been estimated at $800bn, this article investigates the extent to which electricity reliability could contribute to a reduction in the marginal cost of grid extension by attracting more customers. Using lightning as an instrument for outages severity, the article evaluates the assumption that less uncertainty about electricity availability would lead to a larger number of connected households. The article finds that a one percentage point increase in electricity reliability would yield a 0.67 percentage point increase in connections. Therefore, delivering fully reliable electrical power would allow an electricity company to achieve its targeted growth of customer base 15 months earlier than planned. The effect of reliability is highest for middle-rich households, which are the most reluctant to subscribe in the presence of total, severe or partial outages. A one-percentage-point upgrade in reliability increase the likelihood that these households will be connected by 1.28 percentage points. This article also finds that households are more sensitive to outages in areas where outages are less frequent. In addiction, the impact of reliability on households decision to connect could be at least 5% greater than the effect of poverty; if the frequency of outages is too high, the wealth or poverty effect might vanish and households would respond only to the excessively low reliability. These results confirm the uncertainty assumption, that is, regular and severe outages yield an uninsurable context that deters households from subscribing to the electric service.
    Keywords: outages,reliability,electrification,instrumental variable,Kenya
    Date: 2017–06
  17. By: Xu, Sijia (National University of Singapore); Shonchoy, Abu S. (Florida International University); Fujii, Tomoki (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: A target in the Millennium Development Goals—gender parity in all levels of education—is widely considered to have been attained. However, measuring gender parity only through school enrollment is misleading, as girls may lag behind boys in other educational measures. We investigate this with four rounds of surveys from Bangladesh by decomposing households’ education decisions into enrollment, education expenditure, and share of the education expenditure allocated for the quality of education like private tutoring. We find a strong profemale bias in school enrollment but promale bias in the other two decisions. This contradirectional gender bias is unique to Bangladesh and partly explained by the presence of conditional cash transfer programs. Although these programs promoted girls’ enrollment in secondary schools, they were largely ineffective in narrowing the gender gaps in academic performance and intrahousehold allocation of education resources. Gender parity in education cannot be truly achieved without addressing these gaps.
    Keywords: Female Stipend Programs; Education; Conditional cash transfer; Private tutoring; Bangladesh
    JEL: I28 J16 O15
    Date: 2019–04–26
  18. By: Carrillo, Bladimir
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run impacts of income shocks by exploiting variation in coffee cultivation patterns within Colombia and world coffee prices during cohorts' school-going years in a differences-in-differences framework. The results indicate that cohorts who faced higher returns to coffee-related work during school-going years completed fewer years of schooling and have lower income in adulthood. These findings suggest that leaving school during temporary booms results in a significant loss of long-term income. This is consistent with the possibility that students may ignore or heavily discount the future consequences of dropout decisions when faced with immediate income gains.
    Keywords: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods
    Date: 2019–05–15

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