nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2019‒05‒13
twenty-six papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. The distributional impact of structural transformation in rural India: Model-based simulation and case-study evidence By Elbers Chris; Lanjouw Peter
  2. The impact of commercialization of rice on household welfare in rural Viet Nam By McKay Andy; Cazzuffi Chiara; Perge Emilie
  3. Welfare dynamics in India over a quarter-century: Poverty, vulnerability, and mobility, 1987–2012 By Lanjouw Peter; Dang Hai?Anh
  4. Returns to education, intergenerational mobility, and inequality trends in Brazil By Neri Marcelo; Bonomo Tiago
  5. Incentives to labour migration and agricultural productivity: The Bayesian perspective By Djuikom Marie
  6. Enhanced Microfinance Services and Agricultural Best Management Practices: What Benefits for Smallholders Farmers? An Evidence from Burkina Faso By Lota Dabio Tamini; Ibrahima Bocoum; Ghislain Auger; Kotchikpa Gabriel Lawin; Arahama Traoré
  7. Individual-level employment transitions in rural Viet Nam By Ngo Quang-Thanh
  8. The Effect of the Arab Spring on the Preferences for Redistribution in Egypt By Bilal El Rafhi; Alexandre Volle
  9. Multidimensional poverty in Viet Nam: Evidence from a rural household survey By Diem Hoang; Van Hoang Tran
  10. Information, identification, or neither?: Experimental evidence on role models in Viet Nam By Newman Carol; Tarp Finn; Narciso Gaia
  11. Land rights, agricultural productivity, and deforestation in Viet Nam By Carney Conor; Abman Ryan
  12. The gender gap in firm productivity in Rwanda : Evidence from establishment and household enterprise data By Munyegera Ggombe; Precious Akampumuza
  13. Factors Explaining the Dynamics of Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Senegal's Rain Maize Farmers By Aminata Diagne; Lota Dabio Tamini; Patrick Mundler
  14. The welfare impact of Viet Nam’s national target programme ‘building a new countryside’: A quasi-experimental evaluation By Verwimp Philip; Zhang Sisi
  15. Inventory Credit to Enhance Food Security in Africa By Subervie Julie; Tristan Le Cotty; Elodie Maitre d'Hotel
  16. The evolution and determination of earnings inequality in post-apartheid South Africa By Finn Arden; Leibbrandt Murray
  17. The Effect of Forest Access on the Market for Fuelwood in India By Branko Bošković; Ujjayant Chakravorty; Martino Pelli; Anna Risch
  18. Self-selection of Mexican migrants in the presence of random shocks: Evidence from the Panic of 1907 By Escamilla-Guerrero David; Lopez-Alonso Moramay
  19. Inequality and the generational economy: Race-disaggregated National Transfer Accounts for South Africa, 2015 By Oosthuizen Morné
  20. The Effect of the Universal Primary Education Program on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Tanzania By Esther Delesalle
  21. Climate change, education and mobility in Africa By Christoph Deuster
  22. Drivers of inequality in South Africa By Leibbrandt Murray; Woolard Ingrid; Hundenborn Janina
  23. Climate change, migration, and irrigation By Théo Benonnier; Katrin Millock; Vis Taraz
  24. Leveraging institutional food procurement for linking small farmers to markets. Findings from WFP’s Purchase for Progress initiative and Brazil’s food procurement programmes By Kelly, Siobhan; Swensson, Luana F.J.
  25. Can a wage subsidy system help reduce 50 per cent youth unemployment?: Evidence from South Africa By Pirttilä Jukka; Ebrahim Amina
  26. Do forest-management plans and FSC certification reduce deforestation in the Congo basin? By Isabelle Tritsch; Gwenolé Le Velly; Benoit Mertens; Patrick Meyfroidt; Christophe Sannier; Jean-Sylvestre Makak; Kenneth Houngbedji

  1. By: Elbers Chris; Lanjouw Peter
    Abstract: The North Indian village of Palanpur has been the subject of close study over a period of six decades from 1957/8 to 2015. Himanshu et al. (2018) have documented the evolution of the village economy over this period in an exhaustive study entitled How Lives Change: Palanpur, India and Development Economics, and point to two distinct, and staggered, drivers of growth and distribution of income.An early period of agricultural intensification associated with the green revolution saw an expansion of irrigation and the introduction of new agricultural technologies, leading to rising incomes accompanied by falling poverty and fairly stable, or even declining, income inequality. Subsequently, from about the mid-1970s onwards, a cumulative process of non-farm diversification took hold, and was accompanied by further growth and poverty decline, but also a significant rise in income inequality.This process of structural transformation is likely to be occurring more broadly in rural India. In this paper, we construct a simple model of a village economy that captures several of the salient elements of the Palanpur economy and society. We show that this basic model is readily able to reproduce the distributional outcomes observed in the village.We suggest that to the extent that there exist other villages in rural India with such features, similar distributional outcomes might be expected. We indicate, further, that while the non-farm diversification phase of the village growth story was accompanied by rising inequality, the counterfactual of no diversification might well have been associated with an even greater increase. We suggest that non-farm diversification has arguably helped to contain growth in inequality and has played a particularly pronounced role in reducing poverty.
    Keywords: non-farm employment,rural diversification,simulation model,Structural transformation,Income inequality,Poverty,Income distribution
    Date: 2019
  2. By: McKay Andy; Cazzuffi Chiara; Perge Emilie
    Abstract: The past 30 years have seen a consistent increase in agricultural commercialization in rural Viet Nam, at the same time when rural residents have moved increasingly into non-agricultural activities.The contribution of the latter to welfare improvement and poverty reduction is well known; in this paper we investigate the extent to which increased agricultural commercialization has also contributed to improving welfare levels. For this purpose, we use the five-wave Viet Nam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) panel data set from 2008–16 to consider the specific impacts of increased commercialization of rice, Viet Nam& 39;s dominant crop.We use three measures of welfare and two measures of agricultural commercialization, and find a significant impact of commercialization on household assets, a longer term welfare measure. However, we do not find much impact on household income and food consumption. The results also show heterogeneous effects across different types of households, with particularly large impacts for those who are frequent sellers.
    Keywords: Rice,Smallholders,Commercialization
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Lanjouw Peter; Dang Hai?Anh
    Abstract: We analyse the Indian National Sample Survey data spanning the period 1987/88–2011/12 to uncover patterns of transition into and out of different classes of consumption distribution.At the aggregate level, income growth has accelerated, accompanied by accelerating poverty decline. Underlying these trends is a process of mobility, with 40–60 per cent of the population transitioning between consumption classes, and increasing mobility over time. Yet the majority of those who escape poverty remain vulnerable.Most of those who are poor were also poor in the preceding period, and are thus likely to be chronically poor. The characteristics of upwardly mobile households contrast with those of the poor; these households are also far less likely to experience downward mobility. While mobility patterns are heterogenous across states, within-state trends are qualitatively similar to national trends.
    Keywords: Mobility,National sample survey,Poverty alleviation,Synthetic panel,Welfare dynamics,Imputation,Intragenerational mobility,Income distribution
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Neri Marcelo; Bonomo Tiago
    Abstract: Education-related changes are often argued as the main reasons for changes in earnings distribution. However, omitted variable and measurement error biases possibly affect econometric estimates of these effects.Brazil experienced a sharp fall of individual labour income inequality between 1996 and 2014. Coincidentally, in the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey ( PNAD) there are special supplements on family background in these two years that allow us to better address the role played by falling education returns.This paper takes advantage of this information to provide new estimates of the level and evolution of the returns to education in Brazil using variable premiums by education level, quantile regressions, and pseudo panels. Regarding measurement error, the empirical strategy is to make use of the information of who responded to the PNAD questionnaire but controlling for availability biases.We find evidence of attenuation bias which reduces mean returns from education between 14 and 31.5 per cent. On the other hand, omitting parents’ education information also accounting for selectivity issues reduces the premium estimates by 24 per cent.Perhaps more importantly, the fall of education premium is heavily underestimated when we do not take family background into account. The highest fall of returns occurred in intermediary levels of education and income. Cohort effects also show that the reduction in the educational premium has been going on for several generations.Finally, we assess how parents’ education affects the educational outcomes of their children and how the intergenerational mobility of education has evolved over the last years. We find a reduction on the intergenerational persistence of education from 0.7 to 0.47 between 1996 and 2014. Cohort effects regarding intergenerational mobility also show that the fall in the persistence of education is also stronger for younger cohorts, which coincides with the fall of education premiums.
    Keywords: Earnings inequality,Intergenerational Mobility,Omitted variable bias,Schooling reurns
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Djuikom Marie
    Abstract: Understanding how internal labour migration affects the agricultural sector is important for all developing countries whose markets do not work well or are non-existent. In fact, even if the movement out of the agricultural sector can be viewed as a process to reach development for many African countries, this could lead to a negative effect on the rural economy. The availability of labour and the cost of hiring people to work on farms is an example of a problem that farmers may face in the presence of a critical level of labour migration.This paper investigates the effect of internal labour migration on agricultural productivity of rural households in Uganda. Since households select themselves into migration this raises the endogeneity problem. In order to account for the endogeneity of the migration decision and the fact that the effect might be different from one household to another, I model the households’ decisions to participate in migration along with their investment in agricultural productivity using the Bayesian treatment analysis. This approach allows me to self-match each household and to estimate a distribution for the counterfactual outcome.The results show that even if on average internal labour migration positively affects agricultural productivity, there are some households for which the effect is negative. Those households for which the effect is negative are mostly small farmers and are therefore more likely to be poor and thus more sensitive to the local price volatility. Moreover, the average effect of the labour migration tends to increase with the likelihood of participating in the internal labour migration. In parallel, I also examine to what extent previous migration rates, widely used in the literature as instrument for the migration decision, are exogenous to the agricultural productivity. It turns out that previous households’ decisions to participate in migration are intimately correlated with their current agricultural productivity.
    Keywords: Bayesian treatment analysis,Instrumental variable,Labour migration,rural,Agriculture
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Lota Dabio Tamini; Ibrahima Bocoum; Ghislain Auger; Kotchikpa Gabriel Lawin; Arahama Traoré
    Abstract: This paper analyses the crop production intensification credit [Crédit d’Intensification de la Production Agricole] (CIPA) and its impact on smallholders farmers in Burkina Faso. The methodological approach of the evaluation is based on a randomized experiment coupled to propensity score matching. For the latter, the strategy was to use the observable characteristics of producers and their farms to identify, in non-CIPA areas, producers who have characteristics that have an impact on the propensity to take a credit similar to the CIPA beneficiary producers. We used a Difference-in-Difference approach and analysed the changes in the results between the baseline (2015) and final (2017) surveys witch result in a total of 955 observations in the northern of Burkina Faso and 1,311 in the southern part. The results show that CIPA has a positive effect on area planted, yield, production and sales. However, there is heterogeneity regarding gender, province and perceived quality of services to producers (provided by extension agents, producers’ organization and input suppliers). Development projects should therefore consider this heterogeneity in the design of their interventions.
    Keywords: Burkina Faso,Microcredit,Agricultural production,Agricultural productivity,Impact evaluation,
    JEL: O13 Q14
    Date: 2019–05–06
  7. By: Ngo Quang-Thanh
    Abstract: Structural transformation in rural areas is a key issue in economic development. While much of the literature on structural transformation has so far focussed on household- or commune levels or even higher aggregate levels, little is known about the individual member level.The paper aims at examining factors that affect the individual-level employment rural transitions in Viet Nam, namely: (1) non-transient farm; (2) positive transient farm; (3) out-of-wage transition; (4) transitory farm-household work; and (5) transitory wage-household work.By taking advantage of the Viet Nam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) with data on 2,699 individuals for two years, 2008 and 2016, we find that individual-level human capital and social capital are important factors affecting employment transition status in the rural area. In addition, changes in individual and household characteristics and socio-economic conditions at commune level are important to influence various types of employment transitions.These results have implications for the development policy on rural transition in developing countries, highlighting the importance of recognizing the positive aspects of changes in individual-, household-, and commune-levels for rural transformation. Promotion of education attainment is necessary at both individual- and household-level to spur the transition out of farming.Broadened policy mechanisms which support and encourage non-farm employment at the household level are also needed. Likewise, development initiatives that focus on increasing the human and social assets of the individual farmers and farming households are more likely to be successful in supporting livelihood diversification and reducing vulnerability.
    Keywords: Employment,Rural areas,Structural transformation
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Bilal El Rafhi (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Alexandre Volle (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier)
    Abstract: The present paper investigates the effect of the revolution occurred in January 2011 in Egypt on the Preferences of Redistribution. This shock has been an important event enhancing the freedom situation and political structure. In a first step taking into account the main determinants explaining Preferences of Redistribution displayed in literature, our results differ showing a positive impact of the religion and a negative impact of the altruistic attitude. In a second step, we rely on a diff-in-diff approach to estimate the effect of the revolution using as control group three similar countries. We find that Egyptians became much more favorable to redistribution after the Arab Spring. Moreover, the revolution effect is stronger for the poorest people and those who are interested in politics.
    Keywords: Revolution political rivalries,political situation,Redistributive preferences,Revolution,Arab spring,Freedom,Political situ- ation
    Date: 2019–02–07
  9. By: Diem Hoang; Van Hoang Tran
    Abstract: For years, the international development community has been considering poverty as a multidimensional phenomenon, which takes into account not only income or consumption of the poor, but also their access to basic needs (education, health, etc.) and resources (credit, social network, etc.).In Viet Nam, since 2016, the Government has adopted the multidimensional approach to thoroughly measure poverty. This paper is an attempt to assess the state and evolution of multidimensional poverty in the rural areas of Viet Nam, using data from the Viet Nam Access to Resources Household Survey 2008–16.Results show remarkable improvement of the living conditions in the rural areas, with a greater pace shown among the ethnic minority groups. However, there need to be more efforts to reduce the gap in poverty headcount ratios among Kinh and non-Kinh groups, households with male and female heads, and among households in different provinces.Some of the main suggestions to reduce multidimensional poverty in Viet Nam is to increase households’ access to health care services, education, clean water and hygienic latrines, and to improve the presence of such service providers near the households’ locations.
    Keywords: Household survey,Multidimensional poverty,Poverty analysis,Rural households
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Newman Carol; Tarp Finn; Narciso Gaia
    Abstract: How can development programmes reach out to remote communities? This paper presents experimental evidence on the impact of a role models intervention that aims to inspire ethnic minority households to start businesses and diversify income sources.The experiment took place in three provinces of the Northern highlands of Viet Nam. The research design enables us to disentangle the extent to which role models shift behaviour by providing information or inspiration.We find that despite successful implementation of the intervention, which was powered to detect reasonably small effects, and a high level of compliance, the role model intervention did not impact on income, livelihoods, or other welfare outcomes. This points to the difficulties involved in using role models to induce behavioural change in contexts where populations are severely marginalized and face a variety of binding constraints.
    Keywords: Role models,Rural areas,ethnic minorities,Entrepreneurship
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Carney Conor; Abman Ryan
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between land tenure for smallholder agriculture and deforestation in Viet Nam. We combine high resolution satellite data on deforestation with rich household and commune-level, biannual panel data.We study two margins of tenure security, whether a household has any land title (extensive) and the share of a household’s land held in title (intensive). Using a household-fixed effects model, we find the increases in crop production and land investment associated with holding land title are driven by the intensive margin.We then aggregate the survey data to the commune-level and find evidence that marginal increases in extensive tenure (share of households with any land title) increase deforestation holding constant the average intensive tenure (average share of land held in tenure among those with land title).We find some evidence that increasing the intensive margin of tenure (holding constant the extensive tenure) decreases deforestation. These results present a more nuanced view of the tenuredeforestation relationship than is prevalent in the existing literature.
    Keywords: Agricultural productivity,Deforestation,Land tenure
    Date: 2018
  12. By: Munyegera Ggombe; Precious Akampumuza
    Abstract: Rwanda is one of the countries with the best strategies for women empowerment and gender equality in Africa and globally. Nonetheless, some inequalities exist especially in education attainment.This study investigates the gender gaps in business performance using nationally representative household survey and establishment census data.Ordinary Least Squares results indicate that female-owned business enterprises employ fewer workers and are less productive than male-owned counterparts. Specifically, turnover and net revenue per worker are 20-22 per cent and 22-25 per cent lower among female-owned enterprises.The results are corroborated by propensity score matching estimates, implying that the estimated gender productivity gap is robust to observed heterogeneity between male- and female-owned enterprises.We investigate the potential mechanisms and find that female owners invest less capital, are less likely to seek and/or obtain credit and devote fewer hours per week to their businesses. Credit products targeting collateral-constrained and female-owned household enterprises could partially close the gender productivity gap.
    Keywords: Economic policy (Business enterprises),Gender,Productivity
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Aminata Diagne; Lota Dabio Tamini; Patrick Mundler
    Abstract: This paper analyses the adoption dynamics of improved rainfed maize seeds disseminated in Senegal in 2013 by the West African Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP). We group maize producers into five groups (non-adopters, laggards/abandoners, late adopters, followers and pioneers/innovators) and take into account the heterogeneity of unobservable characteristics of the producers. In the pioneers/innovators group, the availability of labour, household size, shocks, and frequency of access to advice positively influence adoption, whereas financial constraints and high numbers of plots reduce the probability of adoption. Producers in the followers’ category tend to be older and more educated than are those in the other categories. However, food insecurity and shocks such as diseases hamper adoption. For the group of late adopters, household size and available storage infrastructures explain adoption. However, the number of plots and shocks reduce their probability of adoption. Laggards tend to face shocks and food insecurity.
    Keywords: Adoption,Technological Innovations,Multinomial Logit Model,Endogeneity,Unobservable Heterogeneity,Senegal,
    JEL: Q12 Q18
    Date: 2019–05–02
  14. By: Verwimp Philip; Zhang Sisi
    Abstract: We evaluate the impact on household income of Viet Nam’s national target programme to build a new countryside for the period from 2010 to 2015.The purpose of the programme is to modernize rural Viet Nam. Given the universal implementation of the programme, we use a quasi-experimental approach whereby we employ three evaluation techniques which each have their own strengths and weaknesses: an income growth model (ordinary least squares), differences-in-differences, and propensity score matching.We exploit the fact that not all rural communes graduated by the end of the period as ‘new rural communes’ and consider the unsuccessful communes as our comparison group. We find that the programme was responsible for an increase in household income of between 16 and 28 per cent, depending on the evaluation method used. As the comparison communes have also benefited to some extent from the programme, these percentages are an underestimate of the true effect.We also find that the programme was pro-poor and that it raised non-farm income in particular.
    Keywords: Poverty reduction,Household income,Impact evaluation
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Subervie Julie (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Tristan Le Cotty (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech); Elodie Maitre d'Hotel (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier)
    Abstract: In many African countries, rural households typically sell their output immediately after harvest and then have to face the lean season in often dramatic conditions. This paper explores whether alleviating both credit and storage constraints through an inventory credit (or warrantage) program in Burkina Faso is associated with improvements in household food insecurity and dietary diversity. We partnered with a rural bank and a nation-wide organization of farmers to evaluate a warrantage system with seventeen villages in the western region of Burkina Faso. In randomly chosen treatment villages, the households were offered a loan in exchange for storing a portion of their harvest as a physical guarantee in one of the newly-built warehouses of the project. We show that, after three seasons, the warrantage program has extended users' self-subsistence period by an average of seventeen days, increased the average size of the farmby one and a half hectares (one additional hectare of cotton and one additional half hectare of maize) and increased dietary diversity significantly, with more fish, fruit and oil consumed weekly.
    Keywords: inventory credit,warrantage,savings,storage,intertemporal price fluctuations
    Date: 2019
  16. By: Finn Arden; Leibbrandt Murray
    Abstract: In this paper we identify some of the drivers of changes in the distribution of earnings and earnings inequality in the South African labour market between 2000 and 2014.Although the overall level of earnings inequality between 2000 and 2011 was high and relatively stable, there were nonetheless some interesting shifts in the factors generating inequality. The earnings data from mid-2012 to 2014, however, show a steep increase in inequality.It is difficult to determine how much of this is a ‘real’ change, and how much is driven by other factors such as measurement error and changes in data collection and processing. For this reason, all results are presented in a 2000–14, 2000–11, and 2011–14 format. We use RIF regressions to decompose changes in average earnings, as well as changes in the Gini coefficient and different percentile ratios.Our main finding is that changes in the returns to education and changes in the returns to potential experience were the most important determinants of changes in inequality, with the former generally being inequality-enhancing, and the latter inequality-reducing.
    Keywords: RIF,Wages,Income inequality
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Branko Bošković; Ujjayant Chakravorty (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Martino Pelli; Anna Risch (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Fuelwood collection is often cited as the most important cause of deforestation in developing countries. Use of fuelwood in cooking is a leading cause of indoor air pollution. Using household data from India, we show that households located farther away from the forest spend more time collecting. Distant households are likely to sell more fuelwood and buy less. That is, lower access to forests increases fuelwood collection and sale. This counter-intuitive behavior is triggered by two factors: lower access to forests (a) increases the fixed costs of collecting, which in turn leads to more collection; and (b) drives up local fuelwood prices, which makes collection and sale more profitable. We quantify both these effects. Using our estimates we show that a fifth of the fuelwood collected is consumed outside of rural areas, in nearby towns and cities. Our results imply that at the margin, fuelwood scarcity may lead to increased collection and sale, and exacerbate forest degradation.
    Keywords: fuelwood collection,forest cover,energy access,cooking fuels,deforestation
    Date: 2019–04–04
  18. By: Escamilla-Guerrero David; Lopez-Alonso Moramay
    Abstract: Using height as a proxy for physical productivity of labour, this paper estimates the selection of Mexican migration to the United States at the beginning of the flow (1906–08), and it exploits a natural experiment of history to evaluate the impact of random shocks on short-run shifts in selection into migration.The results suggest that the first Mexican migrants belonged to the upper ranks of the height distribution of the Mexican working class. Additionally, the financial crisis of 1907, an exogenous labour demand shock in the United States, significantly modified local migrant self-selection. Before the crisis, migrants were positively selected relative to the military elite of the time. During the crisis, migrants became negatively selected, but returned to a stronger positive selection after the crisis.The shift to a less positive selection was influenced by the absence of the enganche, an institution that neutralized mobility and job-search costs. The stronger positive selection in the post-crisis period was partially driven by persistent droughts in Mexico that increased the population at risk of migration.
    Keywords: International migration,Labour migration,random shocks,Self-selection
    Date: 2019
  19. By: Oosthuizen Morné
    Abstract: Differences in the economic lifecycle between countries at different levels of development suggest that there may be differences between sub-populations within countries, particularly where the sub-populations have different levels of income. Given stark inequalities by race in South Africa, this paper constructs a full set of race-disaggregated National Transfer Accounts for 2015 and finds substantial differences between them in patterns of producing, consuming, sharing, and saving across the lifecycle.Resources flow strongly downwards to younger cohorts for all groups, while older Africans make large transfers to household members when compared with their counterparts of other races. Differences in the financing of consumption at older ages between race groups suggest that South Africa’s second demographic dividend may be overstated by reliance on national-level profiles.The results suggest that National Transfer Accounts-based estimates of the demographic dividends would benefit from accounting for differences between sub-populations.
    Keywords: national transfer accounts,demographic dividend,economic lifecycle,Intergenerational Mobility
    Date: 2019
  20. By: Esther Delesalle (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to study the effect of education on labor market participation and household consumption in a rural environment. The Tanzanian Universal Primary Education (UPE) program, which provides variations in education across locations and over time, is used as a natural experiment. Exploiting these two exogenous variations to instrument education, I find that education increases household consumption, especially in agriculture and in nonfarm self-employment activities. I also provide evidence that education increases the probability of working in agriculture. These results, initially surprising, suggest that returns to education in agriculture are positive, provided that the skills taught at school are suitable for agriculture.
    Keywords: Human capital investment, returns to education, labor market organization, schooling reforms, Tanzania
    JEL: I2 J24
    Date: 2019–04–24
  21. By: Christoph Deuster
    Abstract: What is the relationship between climate change and human capital ac- cumulation? Through which mechanisms do weather changes affect tertiary educational attainment in African economies? This paper investigates the potential link between climate change and high-skilled human capital formation in Africa. In order to do so, a two-sector, world economy model that endogenizes education decisions and internal migration decisions is developed. This stylized model predicts that negative climatic conditions increase the share of people moving internally from rural to urban areas. This in turn leads to a larger future share of individuals investing in tertiary education, because the access and returns to education are higher in urban areas. These theoretical predictions are empirically validated by a panel data analysis at the country level, and a cross-sectional data analysis at the province level. The panel data set includes 37 African countries and covers the time period between 1960 and 2010. The cross-sectional data set includes 111 provinces in 17 African economies. A linear regression analysis shows that weather changes and educational attainment are correlated. A Two-Stage least squares regression analysis indicates that this effect results from the impact of climatic variation on internal migration. The research leads to the conclusion that adverse weather changes may have the unexpected effect of increasing high-skilled educational attainment in African economies.
    Keywords: Human capital, Migration, Climate change
    Date: 2019
  22. By: Leibbrandt Murray; Woolard Ingrid; Hundenborn Janina
    Abstract: The first democratic elections in 1994 brought about the promise for equal opportunity and an overall improvement of living standards for the majority of the South African population. However, 20 years after the democratization of South Africa, levels of inequality remain stubbornly high.The focused contribution of this paper is to examine the role of income from different sources driving these high levels of inequality, and which ones cause changes over time. We use data from the 1993 Project for Statistics on Living Standards and Development as well as from the National Income Dynamics Study from 2008 and 2014 to assess the role of different income sources in overall inequality and compare snapshots of the level and texture of inequality across time.We start with the static exercise of explaining the role of income sources in driving income inequality at each of the three points in time. With this static picture as a base, we go on to the dynamic exercise of explaining the role of changing income sources in changes in income inequality over time. The static exercise is an update on work that has been done often before. The dynamic exercise is a fresh contribution.We find that over the past 20 years, labour income has been the major contributor to overall inequality but became less dis-equalizing in later periods. A more nuanced decomposition technique within the dynamic decomposition allows us to separate out the effect of changes in household demographics from changes in income sources. Stripping these demographic effects out of the income sources is important. Now, different income sources decrease inequality between 2008 and 2014 in particular, and over the entire post-apartheid period in general.
    Keywords: Inequality,labour markets,Income distribution
    Date: 2018
  23. By: Théo Benonnier (ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan); Katrin Millock (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Vis Taraz (Smith College)
    Abstract: Climate change will affect both international and internal migration. Earlier work finds evidence of a climate-migration poverty trap: higher temperatures reduce agri- cultural yields, which in turn reduce emigration rates in low-income countries, due to liquidity constraints. We test whether access to irrigation modulates the climate- migration poverty trap, since irrigation protects crops from heat. We regress measures of international and internal migration on decadal averages of temperature and rain- fall, interacted with country-level data on irrigation and income. We find that irri- gation access significantly weakens the climate-migration poverty trap, demonstrating the importance of considering alternative adaptation strategies when analyzing climate migration.
    Keywords: International migration,Rural-urban migration,Climate change,Agriculture,Irrigation
    Date: 2019–04
  24. By: Kelly, Siobhan; Swensson, Luana F.J.
    Abstract: Institutional food procurement programmes (IFPPs) refer to initiatives that are designed to link institutional demand for food to broader development objectives. In developing countries, IFPPs are increasingly viewed as approaches that facilitate the transformation of local food systems. This publication shares lessons from the Purchase for Progress (P4P) pilot initiative of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), as well as Brazil’s National School Feeding Programme (PNAE) and the public Food Purchase Programme (PAA), with insights on the policy and institutional reforms required for developing and implementing IFPPs. In analysing the needs and constraints of buying institutions and small suppliers, the publication also provides practical guidance on tools and capacity building priorities required to build strong IFPPs. The analysis culminates in a programmatic framework to help the public sector to shape and implement IFPPs.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Financial Economics
    Date: 2017–09–18
  25. By: Pirttilä Jukka; Ebrahim Amina
    Abstract: The paper examines the incidence and employment impacts of the Employment Tax Incentive, a South African wage subsidy system that is targeted at the employers of low-wage youth.The paper uses a triple differences strategy and survey and administrative data, covering the universe of South African workers. The results reveal that the system has not had a positive influence on the employment rate of eligible workers.The number of jobs in the region where the subsidy is the greatest has increased, but the increase is not statistically significant, perhaps due to a low take-up rate. Earnings seem to have increased for part of the eligible group, suggesting that the incidence is partly on workers.
    Keywords: wage subsidy,youth unemployment,Taxation,Administrative data,Employment
    Date: 2019
  26. By: Isabelle Tritsch (UMR ECOFOG - Ecologie des forêts de Guyane - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech - UG - Université de Guyane - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UA - Université des Antilles); Gwenolé Le Velly (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Benoit Mertens (ATILF - Analyse et Traitement Informatique de la Langue Française - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick Meyfroidt (Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain); Christophe Sannier (SIRS - Systèmes d'Information à Référence Spatiale - Systèmes d'Information à Référence Spatiale); Jean-Sylvestre Makak (Geospatial Company); Kenneth Houngbedji (AFD - Agence française de développement)
    Abstract: To allow for the production of timber while preserving conservation values, forestry regulations in the Congo Basin have made Forest Management Plans (FMPs) mandatory in logging concessions. This paper uses original highresolution maps of forest-cover changes and official records on the activities of logging concessions to analyze the impact of FMPs on deforestation in this region. We apply quasi-experimental and difference-in-difference approaches to evaluate the change in deforestation in concessions that implemented an FMP. We find that between 2000 and 2010, deforestation was 74% lower in concessions with an FMP compared to others. Building on a theory of change, further analyses revealed that this decrease in deforestation takes at least five years to occur, and is highest around communities located in and nearby logging concessions and in areas close to previous deforestation. These findings suggest that FMPs reduce deforestation by allowing concessions to rotate cycles of timber extraction, thereby avoiding the overexploitation of areas that were previously logged, and by the better regulation of access to concessions by closing former logging roads to limit illegal activities such as slash and burn agriculture, hunting and the illegal harvest of timber or fuelwood.
    Keywords: forest management plan,FSC certification,deforestation,quasi-experimental matching,causal mechanisms,Congo Basin
    Date: 2019

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