nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2018‒10‒01
27 papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. The long-term effects of cash transfers on education and labor market outcomes By Paredes, Tatiana
  2. No Impact of Rural Development Policies? No Synergies with Conditional Cash Transfers? An Investigation of the IFAD-Supported Gavião Project in Brazil By Steven Helfand; Lorena Viera Costa; André Portela Souza
  3. Corruption, political stability and illicit financial outflows in Sub-Saharan Africa By Orkoh, Emmanuel; Claassen, Carike; Blaauw, Phillip Frederick
  4. Infrastructure Grants and the Performance of Microenterprises By Chaurey, Ritam; Le, Duong Trung
  5. Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia By Gaurav Khanna; Carlos Medina; Anant Nyshadham; Jorge Tamayo
  6. Democracy and aid donorship By Fuchs, Andreas; Müller, Angelika
  7. Is wealth found in the soil or brain? Investing in farm people in Malawi By Mkondiwa, M.
  8. Political Openness and Armed Conflict: Evidence from Local Councils in Colombia By Hector Galindo Silva
  9. Access to Piped Water, Time Savings and Absenteeism in School: Evidence from India By Vanaja, S.
  10. Women’s Empowerment and Family Health: Estimating LATE with Mismeasured Treatment By Rossella Calvi; Arthur Lewbel; Denni Tommasi
  11. Adverse Selection in Low-Income Health Insurance Markets: Evidence from a RCT in Pakistan By Fischer, Torben; Frölich, Markus; Landmann, Andreas
  12. Determinants of the choice of a savings option: "The case of African Households" By Asare, Eris; Nakakeeto, Gertrude; Segarra, Eduardo
  13. Is there a rainbow after the rain? How do agricultural shocks affect non-farm enterprises? Evidence from Thailand By Grabrucker, Katharina; Grimm, Michael
  14. Information exchange links, knowledge exposure, and adoption of agricultural technologies in Northern Uganda By Shikuku, K.M.
  15. Forestland and household welfares in North Central Provinces, Vietnam By Quang Tran, Tuyen; Viet Nguyen, Thanh
  16. Social Norms and Fertility By Sunha Myong; JungJae Park; Junjian Yi
  17. The consequences of cyclone and seasonal crop risks for wealth and technology adoption in rural Mozambique By Larson, D.
  18. Do remittance fl ows promote financial inclusion? By Immaculate Machasio
  19. Crop Diversification Improves Technical Efficiency and Reduces Income Variability in Northern Ghana By Mzyece, Agness
  20. The impact of crop rotation and land fragmentation on farm productivity in Albania By Rajcaniova, M.; Ciaian, P.; Guri, F.; Zhllima, E.; Shahu, E.
  21. A Matter of Time: An Impact Evaluation of the Brazilian National Land Credit Program By Steven Helfand; Vilma Sielawa; Deepak Singhania
  22. Economic Performance and Electoral Volatility: Testing the Economic Voting Hypothesis on Indian States, 1957–2013 By Bharatee Bhusana Dash; J. Stephen Ferris
  23. Risk Preferences, Contracts and Technology Adoption by Broiler Farmers in China By Mao, Hui; Zhou, Li; Ifft, Jennifer
  24. Gender Analysis Of The Access To Factors Of Rice Production In Sub-Saharan Africa By Kinkpe, T.; Fiamohe, R.; Saito, K.
  25. Contribution to income inequality by income source: A comparison across ethnic groups in Vietnam By Nguyen, Hien; Doan, Tinh; Quang Tran, tuyen
  26. Drivers for early labour market transitions of young women in Uganda: evidence from the 2015 school to work transition survey By Ssewanyana, Sarah; Ahaibwe, Gemma; Kasirye, Ibrahim
  27. Can large-scale farmland transfer improve agricultural productivity? Evidence from rural Jiangsu, P.R. China By Zhang, L.

  1. By: Paredes, Tatiana
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the effects of a cash transfer program persist or wear off in the long-run. I study the first two phases of Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH) in Ecuador, each of which lasted about five years. I use a regression-discontinuity design and a change in the eligibility rule at the beginning of the second phase of the program to disentangle the effects of a short- versus long-exposure to the program. Most of the gains in enrollment and schooling were achieved in the short-run among children that started treatment when they were about to start elementary school, eleventh grade or Baccalaureate. However, an extended exposure to BDH was not enough to keep raising children’s education. Regarding labor market outcomes, BDH had a negative (not statistically significant) impact on the probability of working among young children but did not increase job opportunities among young adults in the long-run.
    Keywords: Unconditional Cash Transfers; Welfare Programs; Human Capital; Long-term Effects; Short-term Effects; Education; Labor Markets; Child Work; Regression Discontinuity Design; differential effects.
    JEL: I25 I28 I38 J24
    Date: 2017–06–02
  2. By: Steven Helfand (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Lorena Viera Costa (Federal University of Viçosa); André Portela Souza (Getulio Vargas Foundation, São Paulo)
    Abstract: Public policies frequently are implemented simultaneously rather than in isolation. We estimate the impacts–and possible synergies–of a rural development project (Pro-Gavião) and the Brazilian conditional cash transfer program (Bolsa Família). In partnership with the State Government of Bahia, Pro-Gavião was an IFAD-supported rural development project in 13 contiguous municipalities between 1997 and 2005. Census tract level data were extracted for the analysis from the 1995-96 and 2006 Agricultural Censuses. The evaluation uses propensity score matching to construct a control group of untreated census tracts, and a difference-in-differences estimation to identify impacts. The outcomes analyzed include land productivity, agricultural income and child labor. Although Pro-Gavião involved significant investments in the region, the results suggest little if any program impact, or synergies between the two programs. The unexpected null findings are robust to alternative approaches to identifying the treated census tracts, matching techniques, and heterogeneity of impacts by initial level of poverty. We show that the lack of impacts is not driven by adverse rainfall in the treated communities, or the influence of other programs in the control communities. Alternative explanations for the null results are explored.
    Keywords: Rural development projects, Conditional Cash Transfers, IFAD, Synergies, Brazil
    JEL: O13 Q1
    Date: 2018–09
  3. By: Orkoh, Emmanuel; Claassen, Carike; Blaauw, Phillip Frederick
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of corruption control and political stability on illicit financial outflows in Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a balanced panel data from the World Bank, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and Global Financial Integrity on Sub-Saharan African countries covering the period 2005-2014. Our regression estimates reveal that a unit increase in political stability and corruption control reduce illicit financial outflow due to misinvoicing in merchandise trade by an average of US$ 20.5 million and US$ 44.3 million respectively. The results also show that high trade rating, financial sector rating and exchange rates reduce illicit financial outflows while an increase in foreign direct investment and inflation increase illicit financial outflow. We recommend that governments in Sub-Saharan Africa countries must ensure that institutions responsible for fighting corruption and enhancing stable governance are well empowered and given the needed resources to work effectively to reduce corruption to the barest minimum.
    Keywords: Corruption,political stability,illicit financial outflow,Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Chaurey, Ritam (The Johns Hopkins Carey Business School); Le, Duong Trung (Binghamton University, New York)
    Abstract: We evaluate the impact of a place-based infrastructure development scheme directed towards India's most "backward" districts, on the performance of microenterprises. "Backward" districts were selected based on a transparent score-based assignment mechanism. Using a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we find that firms in treated districts had higher profits, revenues, and employment. Improvements in electrification was an important channel driving these results, as firms used more electricity and had a lower likelihood of facing a power cut. We also find increases in migrants, and proportion of new firms in treated districts, along with negative spillovers in areas closer to the treated districts.
    Keywords: infrastructure, microenterprises, place-based policy, regression discontinuity
    JEL: O12 O18 O25 R11
    Date: 2018–08
  5. By: Gaurav Khanna (University of California); Carlos Medina (Banco de la República de Colombia); Anant Nyshadham (Boston College & NBER); Jorge Tamayo (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Canonical models of criminal behavior highlight the importance of economic incentives and employment opportunities in determining crime (Becker, 1968). Yet, there is little causal evidence leveraging individual-level variation in support of these claims. Over a decade, we link administrative micro-data on socio-economic measures with the universe of criminal arrests in Medellin. We test whether increasing the relative costs to formal-sector employment led to more crime. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in employment around a cutoff in the socio-economic score, below which individuals receive health care if they are not formally employed. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that the policy had the unintended consequence of inducing a fall in formal-sector employment and a corresponding spike in organized criminal activity. There are no effects on less economically motivated crimes like those of impulse or opportunity. Our results confirm the relationship between formal employment and crime, validating models of criminal activity as a rational economic choice **** RESUMEN: Los modelos canónicos del comportamiento criminal resaltan la importancia de los incentivos económicos y las oportunidades de empleo como determinantes del crimen (Becker, 1968). A pesar de esto, existe poca evidencia causal que soporte estos modelos a nivel de individuos. Nosotros pareamos, a lo largo de una década, información socioeconómica de individuos con el censo de todos los arrestos en Medellín. Nosotros probamos si incrementar el costo relativo del empleo formal conlleva a un incremento del crimen. Se explota una variación exógena en el empleo alrededor de un corte en el puntaje socioeconómico, por debajo del cual los individuos reciben aseguramiento en salud si no están formalmente empleados. Utilizando un diseño de regresión discontinua, mostramos que la política tuvo como consecuencia inducir una reducción en el empleo formal y un correspondiente incremento en la actividad del crimen organizado. No se encuentran efectos en crímenes con una motivación económica menor como aquellos de impulso u oportunidad. Nuestros resultados confirman la relación entre empleo formal y crimen, validando los modelos que explican la actividad criminal como una decisión racional.
    Keywords: Gangs, informality, Medellin, Bandas criminales, informalidad
    JEL: K14 K42
    Date: 2018–09
  6. By: Fuchs, Andreas; Müller, Angelika
    Abstract: Almost half of the world's states provide bilateral development assistance. While previous research takes the set of donor countries as exogenous, this article is the first to explore the determinants of aid donorship. We hypothesize that democratic institutions reduce poor countries' likelihood to initiate aid giving. On the contrary, the leadership of poor authoritarian regimes face fewer constraints that would hinder these governments to reap the benefits of a development aid program despite popular opposition. To test our expectations, we build a new global dataset on aid donorship since 1945 and apply an instrumental-variables strategy that exploits exogenous variation in regional waves of democratization. Our results confirm that the likelihood of a democratic country to start aid giving is more responsive to income than it is the case for authoritarian countries. Overall, democracies are - if anything - less rather than more likely to engage in aid giving.
    Keywords: foreign aid,Official Development Assistance,aid donorship,aid institutions,new donors,democracy,selectorate theory
    JEL: F35 H11 H87 O19 P33
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Mkondiwa, M.
    Abstract: Should a typical developing country invest more in agriculture or education? At what stage of development is it optimal to invest more in each of these sectors? Every developing country government grapples with these questions annually when designing a national budget. In this paper, I provide estimates of agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi- evidence of such returns implies a more complex non-separable decision process to answer the first question. While a large development economics literature has documented the effects of schooling on agricultural incomes, such estimates are potentially biased because of unobserved heterogeneity and selection bias. In this paper, I use 2010-2013 two period nationally representative panel survey data in Malawi and rely on the exogenous education policy changes and spatial variation in access to schooling to identify effects of schooling on agricultural incomes. In addition, I use recent econometric methods to correct for selection into income activities within a panel data and instrumental variables estimation framework. I find annual agricultural returns to one additional year of schooling in Malawi that range from 3% to 7%.
    Keywords: Financial Economics
    Date: 2018–07
  8. By: Hector Galindo Silva
    Abstract: In this paper, I empirically investigate how openness of political institutions to diverse representation can impact con ict-related violence. By exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the number of councillors in Colombian municipalities, I develop two sets of results. First, regression discontinuity estimates show that larger municipal councils have a considerably greater number of political parties with at least one elected representative. I interpret this result as evidence that larger municipal councils are more open to political participation by more groups in society. The estimates also reveal that smaller parties are the main bene ciaries of this greater political openness. Second, regression discontinuity estimates show that political openness substantially decreases con ict-related violence, namely the killing of civilian non-combatants. By exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in local election results, I show that the lower level of political violence stems from greater participation by parties with close links to armed groups. Using data about the types of violence employed by these groups, the provision of local public goods, scal outcomes and coca cultivation, Iargue that armed violence has decreased not because of power-sharing arrangements between the armed groups linked to the parties with more political representation, but rather because armed groups with less political power and visibility are deterred from initiating certain types of violence.
    Keywords: Political openness, violence and armed conflict, councils
    JEL: H72 D72
    Date: 2018–09–04
  9. By: Vanaja, S.
    Abstract: Access to piped water at home is often unavailable to people living in the rural areas of many developing countries. Providing in-house piped water connections can reduce the time spent in collecting water from outside sources by different household members, especially women and girls. In this paper, we use variation in the non-self-community ratio of access to piped water for predicting household access and its effect on time savings and school outcomes for children in rural India. The results indicate that there are time savings for households that have access to piped water, which in turn reduces the number of days children miss school annually. Furthermore, this study addresses the issue of endogeneity to some extent by using child and household fixed effects along with the non-self-community ratio as an instrumental variable for household access to piped water.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development
    Date: 2018–07
  10. By: Rossella Calvi (Rice University); Arthur Lewbel (Boston College); Denni Tommasi (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles)
    Abstract: We study the causal effect of women’s empowerment on family health in India. We define treatment as a woman having primary control over household resources and use changes in inheritance laws as an instrument. Due to measurement difficulties and sharing of goods, treatment cannot be directly observed and must be estimated using a structural model. Treatment mismeasurement may therefore arise from model misspecification and estimation errors. We provide a new estimation method, MR-LATE, that can consistently estimate local average treatment effects when treatment is mismeasured. We find that women’s control of substantial household resources improves their and their children’s health.
    Keywords: causality, LATE, structural model, collective model, resource shares, bargaining power, health
    JEL: D13 D11 D12 C31 I32
    Date: 2018–05–30
  11. By: Fischer, Torben (University of Mannheim); Frölich, Markus (University of Mannheim); Landmann, Andreas (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: We present robust evidence on the presence of adverse selection in hospitalization insurance for low-income households. A large randomized control trial from Pakistan allows us to separate adverse selection from moral hazard, to estimate how selection changes at different points of the demand curve and to test simple measures against adverse selection. The results reveal substantial selection in individual policies, leading to welfare losses and the threat of a market breakdown. Bundling insurance policies at the household or higher levels almost eliminates adverse selection, thus mitigating its welfare consequences and creating the possibility for sustainable insurance supply.
    Keywords: adverse selection, health insurance, Pakistan
    JEL: I13 D82 O12
    Date: 2018–08
  12. By: Asare, Eris; Nakakeeto, Gertrude; Segarra, Eduardo
    Abstract: Recent research shows that about 2.5 million people have no access to financial services worldwide. The research also shows that Africa, the home to 70 percent of the world’s least developed countries, has 80 percent of its population unbanked. These statistics are particularly disturbing as they have direct implications for economic growth. This is because, financial inclusion, including savings, has been shown to have a positive impact on economic growth and development. However, recent empirical research is limited in explaining the determinants of the choice of the savings option in Africa. By using survey data obtained from the World-Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, 2014, we investigate how household’s characteristics affect their choice of a saving option. We use the multinomial probit model due to its ability to account for issues of independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA). Our results indicate that there is a strong disconnect between female entrepreneurs and the formal banking sector.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance
    Date: 2018–02–02
  13. By: Grabrucker, Katharina; Grimm, Michael
    Abstract: Increasing weather volatility poses a significant threat to the livelihood of rural households in developing countries. While how rainfall shocks affect agricultural households has been well documented, there is not much evidence on the indirect effects on non-agricultural households. Combining household panel data with grid-level precipitation data, we analyze how rainfall shocks affect non-farm enterprises in rural Thailand. We examine the effects of rainfall shocks on labor supply for independent, non-farm activities as well as the indirect effects of rainfall shocks on non-farm enterprises through forward linkages, backward linkages and the consumption levels of farm households. We find that farm households increase their labor participation in non-farm self-employment in response to rainfall shocks. We also observe that rainfall shocks lead to increased input costs by non-farm enterprises in the food processing industry, to higher input costs by farms, to higher sales by agriculture-related non-farm enterprises and to lower expenditure by farm households on food and other consumption items. These effects are significant for surplus rainfall shocks (i.e., more rainfall than usual) but less robust for deficit rainfall shocks (i.e., less rainfall than usual), yet both surplus and deficit rainfall shocks lower agricultural production compared to normal rainfall conditions.
    Keywords: Keywords: Rainfall shocks, Non-farm enterprises, Farm/Non-farm linkages, Thailand
    JEL: D22 J22 Q12 R11
    Date: 2018–09
  14. By: Shikuku, K.M.
    Abstract: Recent evidence has shown that direct provision of agricultural training to selected individuals as knowledge injection points (IPs) can help to implement a farmer to farmer extension approach. This study systematically assesses the determinants of information exchange links between trained IPs and their neighbors and the subsequent effect on awareness, knowledge, and adoption of improved varieties of maize and groundnuts and conservation farming. Using a panel dataset from northern Uganda, results of econometric analysis showed that ‘proximity’ in terms of sex, education, assets, and cultivated land, influenced information exchange links. Information exchange links increased awareness and knowledge for all the technologies, and adoption of maize varieties. Selection criterion for IPs, therefore, matters and considering ‘proximity’ between IPs and other farmers is important in designing farmer to farmer extension programs.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development
    Date: 2018–07
  15. By: Quang Tran, Tuyen; Viet Nguyen, Thanh
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of forestland on household income, poverty and inequality among households in Vietnam’s poorest rural districts, the North Central Provinces, using data from the Quantitative Socio-Economic Survey for Emission Reduction-Program (ERP) Provinces Areas [QSESERPA]. Local people are extremely poor, with 54% living below the poverty line. Forest income constitutes about 17% of their total income; only wage income (37%) ranks higher. Surprisingly, those better off depend on forest income more than the poor do. Such income is comprised mainly of non-timber forest plants (77%), followed by timber products (18%). Our micro-econometric analysis indicates that gaining access to more forestland would increase household per capita income and reduce the incidence and intensity of poverty, even after controlling for all other variables in the model. In addition, we find that forest income was the second largest contributor to overall income inequality and had the largest marginal effect on it. A policy implication here is that increasing the access of the poor to forest resources and improving their efficiency in forest management could have a substantial effect on income, poverty and inequality in the study area.
    Keywords: forestland; forest income; fractional probit; Gini decomposition; shortfall
    JEL: Q1 Q15 Q2 Q24 R2
    Date: 2018–01–15
  16. By: Sunha Myong (Singapore Management University); JungJae Park (National University of Singapore); Junjian Yi (The University of Chicago)
    Abstract: We first document three stylized facts about marriage and fertility in East Asian societies: They have the highest marriage rates in the world, but the lowest total fertility; they have the lowest total fertility, but almost all married women have at least one child. By contrast, almost no single women have any children. We then explain these three facts, focusing on two social norms associated with Confucianism: the unequal gender division of childcare within a household and the stigma attached to out-of-wedlock births. We incorporate the two social norms into an economic model, and structurally estimate it using data from South Korea’s censuses and household surveys. We find that, on the one hand, the social norm of unequal gender division of childcare significantly contributes to the low fertility of South Korea, and its effect varies across education: The social norm lowers fertility for highly educated women but increases it for the less educated. Pro-natal policies can increase average fertility, but they are not effective in mitigating the role of this norm as they cannot sufficiently boost fertility for highly educated women. On the other hand, the social stigma has negligible effects on marriage and fertility. Historical simulation results show that fertility would have decreased less dramatically in the absence of the first norm, especially for younger birth cohorts. Our results suggest that the tension between the persistent gender ideology and rapid socioeconomic development is the main driving force behind the unique marriage and fertility patterns of East Asian societies, and that this tension has escalated in recent decades.
    Keywords: Confucianism, social norms, fertility, demographic transition, East Asia societies
    JEL: J11 J12 J13
    Date: 2018–09
  17. By: Larson, D.
    Abstract: In this paper we examine the consequences of extreme weather events on agricultural livelihood choices and welfare outcomes among rural households in Mozambique. We do so by first building a unique historical record of local (enumeration-area) weather event that we match with household survey data. We build the event history by drawing on daily spatial datasets for rainfall and temperature from 1981 to 2015. We build a spatial history of agricultural droughts in Mozambique that account for regional differences in growing seasons. We also utilize for the first time a dataset that maps the impact of all named tropical storms affecting Mozambique from 1968 to 2015. We use geo-referenced household data from 7,400 households in Mozambique to identify production technology choices and measure asset accumulations. Exploiting spatial cross-sectional variations, we show how weather risks adversely affect household choices about production technologies and input use. We show how past exposure to extreme weather events, including typhoons and droughts, adversely impact productive stock accumulations and household wealth.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2018–07
  18. By: Immaculate Machasio (University of Giessen)
    Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate whether remittances promote financial inclusion in developing countries. We construct an index of financial inclusion and present single equation estimates of the effects of remittances on financial inclusion. The paper uses data on remittance fl ows to 61 developing countries from different regions around the world spanning from 1990-2014 to explore this nexus. The study uses fixed effects estimations as well as GMM IV estimation method of panel data econometric analysis. The regression results confirm the hypothesis that remittances have an impact on financial inclusion through their effect on financial sector development. This can be intuitively explained by the fact that sending and receiving remittances increase senders and recipients use of financial services. The study shows that indeed remittances increase financial inclusion by about 2.49%. Remittances can therefore be considered a catalyst of financial inclusion in development.
    Keywords: Remittances, Financial inclusion, Instrumental variables
    JEL: C23 F34 H63
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Mzyece, Agness
    Abstract: Crop diversification is a climate smart agricultural technique which helps improve resilience for farmers in the face of volatile weather due to climate change. Previous research on its effect on technical efficiency shows contrasting results (positive and negative effects). Other literature show that crop diversification has a positive impact on income variability. Is it possible that choosing crop diversification involves a tradeoff between efficiency and resilience (income variability) for rural smallholder farmers? It is likely that merging these two separate sets of previous literature, one on the effects of crop diversification on technical efficiency, and another on its effect on income variability, can provide valuable insights on the decision making process faced by a farmer considering to adopt crop diversification. So essentially, the question we try to answer in this study is what is the effect of crop diversification on technical efficiency and income variability on the same farm household of northern Ghana? Without addressing this question, policy makers cannot tell for sure if crop diversification is a good CSA option for their farmers, and if it is, they still may not know how to promote its adoption effectively. To answer our research question, we use the Agricultural production data from northern Ghana and employ a Cobb Douglas stochastic input distance function for efficiency, and ordinary least squares for income variability. The results show evidence against ‘tradeoff’. Crop diversification significantly improves efficiency and reduces income variability in northern Ghana so farmers do not have to give up efficiency for income stability or vice versa. Thus crop diversification is an ideal CSA strategy for promoting agricultural growth and resilience in northern Ghana. The data we use in this study has a maximum three crops, so our results cannot be generalized to farmers who grow more than three crops.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, International Development, Production Economics
    Date: 2018–01–17
  20. By: Rajcaniova, M.; Ciaian, P.; Guri, F.; Zhllima, E.; Shahu, E.
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of land fragmentation and crop rotation on farm productivity in rural Albania. We employ stochastic production frontier estimation approach and Tobit regression on survey data collected among farm households in Albania in 2013. Our estimates suggest that land fragmentation improves farm efficiency likely because it allows a better use of household labour during the production seasons. Our estimates also suggest that crop rotation increases farm efficiency. However, the land fragmentation dominates the crop rotation in impacting farm efficiency.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2018–07
  21. By: Steven Helfand (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Vilma Sielawa (Saint Mary's College of California); Deepak Singhania (Evidence for Policy Design at IFMR, India)
    Abstract: This paper provides an impact evaluation of the Programa Nacional de Crédito Fundiário, a market assisted land reform program in Brazil. The paper uses a panel dataset and pipeline control group to evaluate the program’s impact on agricultural production and earned income, using a difference in differences model with either municipal or individual fixed effects. The heterogeneous effect of additional years of land ownership is investigated. The findings suggest that the program increases production and earned income by about 75% and 35%, but only after four years of land ownership. The conclusions are supported by a number of robustness tests, although considerable attrition and potential bias due to unobserved variables suggests caution. The benefits of the program largely go to making debt payments. If the impact on income continues to grow, as it did in the first five years, improvements in net wealth and current welfare could both be achieved.
    Keywords: Market Assisted Land Reform, Asset Transfers, Programa Nacional de Crédito Fundiário, Rural Poverty, Brazil.
    JEL: Q15 O13 O22
    Date: 2018–09
  22. By: Bharatee Bhusana Dash (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, (NIPFP) New Delhi, India); J. Stephen Ferris (Department of Economics, Carleton University)
    Abstract: The electoral consequences of variations in economic growth on vote volatility are analyzed on a panel of fourteen Indian states between 1957 and 2013. Two measures of volatility are used: first changes in party vote shares at the assembly level and the state average of volatilities constructed at the constituency level. While the results suggest that both volatilities are reduced by higher income growth rates, volatility at the constituency level is found to be somewhat more sensitive to growth rates. Examination of the periodicity of income growth’s impact finds that the growth rate in the final year of governance has a stronger effect on volatility than does the average income growth rate arising over the entire election cycle. We also find that vote switching responds more to negative rather than positive growth changes and, by decomposing volatility, find that growth changes affect internal vote shifting more than between established parties and new comers. More generally the responsiveness of volatility to set of economic and political characteristics of the state suggests that theories of economic voting have an important role to play in understanding electoral outcomes and hence the process of development
    Keywords: Vote volatility, Economic voting, Indian States, Political business cycle, growth asymmetries
    JEL: D72 O11 O43 R11
    Date: 2018–06–28
  23. By: Mao, Hui; Zhou, Li; Ifft, Jennifer
    Abstract: This study expands on existing research on farmers’ risk preferences and technology adoption, with novel analysis of the relationship between risk preferences, production contract participation, and technology investment levels and adoption time. Our analysis uses farm-level data from 345 Chinese broiler growers and an instrumental variables strategy to address the potential endogeneity of the contracting decision. Both the distance of the farm to the nearest broiler business and the distance of the farm to the nearest market for broiler sale are used as instrumental variables for the contracting decision. Results indicate that farmers with higher risk aversion are more likely to participate in contracts, less likely to adopt new technology, adopt technology later, and invest less in technology. In the subsample of contract farmers, contracts with longer terms, lower upfront deposit requirements and higher cost sharing with enterprises for technology adoption may make farmers more likely to adopt technology, to adopt technology early and to invest more. These findings jointly suggest that contract terms that help alleviate credit constraints may be more effective at promoting technology adoption in developing countries.
    Keywords: Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2017–05–22
  24. By: Kinkpe, T.; Fiamohe, R.; Saito, K.
    Abstract: This paper aims to assess the access to rice production factors in SSA and its determinants. The data were collected from 268 farmers. The results show that male farmers had larger land for rice cultivation than females. They had lower access to extension service, chemical fertilizer and mechanization for land preparation than females. Both males and females used children for bird and rat control. The experience, the membership to associations, the education and the cropping system are the determinants. Holistic approach taking into account gender and youth is needed for enhancing the access to various rice production factors in SSA.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2018–07
  25. By: Nguyen, Hien; Doan, Tinh; Quang Tran, tuyen
    Abstract: This study explores the dynamics of income and income inequality in Vietnam from 2004 to 2014. Two main sub-population groups are investigated: the ethnic majority, known as the Kinh people, and the minority group, which includes 53 minor ethnicities in Vietnam. The findings show that income gap among ethnic groups has increased over the last decade. The Gini index decomposition indicates that wages and nonfarm income are the two main determinants of income inequality. Cultivation and agricultural side-line incomes were relatively evenly distributed, despite their recent smaller equalizing effect. Both sub-population groups have experienced a decreasing contribution of the agricultural sector to overall household income. The changes in income inequality in Vietnam by income sources reflect the economic structure change of the economy from the agricultural reliance to non-agricultural economic activities.
    Keywords: Income inequality, ethnicity, decomposition, Vietnam
    JEL: D6 D63 I32
    Date: 2017–12–15
  26. By: Ssewanyana, Sarah; Ahaibwe, Gemma; Kasirye, Ibrahim
    Abstract: Fertility decisions and associated impacts on young women’s entry into the labour markets are major policy concerns in sub Saharan Africa. This paper jointly estimates the drivers of key life cycle decisions of educational attainment, marriage age, age of first birth and age at first entry into the labour market for young women in Uganda aged 15-24 years. We estimate probit and hazard models for education attainment, first marriage, child bearing and early market entry. We find that education attainment impacts on early labour entry, age at first marriage and fertility decisions. The duration out of school—especially in the first three years, has a significant direct effect on early labour market entry and age at first marriage. As such enforcing the Uganda laws that prohibit early marriage could go a long way in curbing transmission of education poverty across generations. We also find that socio-cultural practices matter especially peer influences matter— higher the share of married women by cohort, the higher the hazard of getting married. There is a regional dimension on the timing of marriage with a higher risk of early marriages observed in the northern and eastern regions.
    Keywords: Industrial Organization, Labor and Human Capital
    Date: 2018–06–29
  27. By: Zhang, L.
    Abstract: Based on the survey data of 285 grain producing lessee operating units in Jiangsu province and applying the multiple regression model and the estimation method with clustered robust standard errors, this study compared the differences in agricultural productivity between small-scale farm households and large-scale operating units, and further indicated the efficiency impacts of large-scale farmland transfer. Results show that, compared to small-scale farm households, only part of large-scale operating units can obtain higher agricultural productivity. Operation scale of 40 ~ 60 mu is the moderate scale where operating units can achieve the optimal allocative efficiency of agricultural production factors (i.e., land, labor, and capital). Specifically, compared to small-scale farm households (1 ~ 20 mu), those operating units, with an operation scale ranging from 10 to 15 times of the area of arable land contracted per household in local area (40 ~ 60 mu), can achieve higher land productivity, profit rate of cost, and total factor productivity; whereas those operating units with an operation scale more than 40 mu (including 40 ~ 60 mu, 60 ~ 120 mu, 120 ~ 500 mu) can obtain greater labor productivity.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2018–07

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